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I actually bought micron for myself about two weeks ago.
Contexto "I have a target price of 1500 on this." ... "I actually bought micron for myself about two weeks ago."
Transcrição Completa
are. Welcome back to Next-Gen investing. I'm Alex coffee. It's time to welcome in our next guest. That's Ed Bartowski, managing partner at Chatwood Investments. Joining us here over the phone to discuss some of these big time memory players. Ed, happy Friday. Thanks for joining me. I want to start with with micron. I mean, this is in many ways kind of been the stock of 2026. We got earnings that will get towards the end of September. So about a month runway. What stands out to you. What stands out easily is that they have 50% more demand for their product than they actually can produce. They're in a terrific situation, and they're trading at 13 times forward p e so forward earnings. So I mean I have a target price of 1500 on this. And that's 64% higher than where it's trading at now. And before we get to say what can we conclude SanDisk here. Because if you were going to choose another stock and say which stock is maybe been the stock of 2026, maybe it's SanDisk, honestly, but a lot of the same story here, right? Capacity, you know, being very much outpaced by demand. But I guess my question to you is, doesn't that kind of limit the amount of upside surprise we can have when the only variable then is how much they want to ratchet up the price for their customers? Yeah. I mean, that definitely does bring up the actual, you know, biggest question is can they make more money if they're, they're limited on their ability to produce. Now, SanDisk doesn't have quite the problem that micron does, although micron competes with SK Hayek. And they they are the largest producer of HBM memory chips. And SanDisk doesn't have that problem where there's another company that's doing even better than they are. But on. In terms of micron, micron, you know, the only thing they can possibly do is create more ability to produce the product. And I don't see that happening in the anytime in the near future. One of the things that we've seen throughout history with these names in particular, and it's not to pick on, you know, micron or some of these memory centric chip makers is that they go through sort of boom and bust cycles. And it seems like the same thing has happened in many different times where it's like there's this tremendous demand. They can't meet it, they ratchet up their capacity and they build a bunch. And then it's like that demand fades. Do you see risk of that happening this time? Or is it just such a unique time with this AI infrastructure that it just doesn't apply? Yeah, it's such a unique time that is not going to apply. Now you have AI with such demand, and we don't know how big that demand is going to be. But I remember, you know, for years I've been at this business and seeing micron, you know, just kind of waver in the wind, not really knowing where it was going to go and how fast and how strong. But this is the real deal with SanDisk and micron. Okay. So then let's, let's look at it from a, you know, an investment thesis standpoint. Then as a managing partner, you and your teams, your stewards of capital, the bullish case kind of writes itself. What's the reasons to shy away then? Is it just simply the volatility of these trades, the sort of hot and cold nature it seems the market has right now with these AI infrastructure trades? Or is it just a, you know, assessment of risk reward? In your case, it seems like you favor the reward. I do, and I'm normally not that kind of person, but but I've been studying micron and SanDisk for a while, and I actually bought micron for myself about two weeks ago. My biggest fear is that they come out during their earnings call and they say one negative thing, the stock will get, you know, trounced just like that happened to Samsung and SK Hayek in South Korea in the same industry. So just one negative comment that is interpreted incorrectly could really trounce the stock. But from a PE standpoint, you know, it's still selling at such an attractive level that the downside is not that great. You're also looking in the fintech space at a buy now, pay later name. Now, I think this is on me more than the company itself. But, you know, I have not even really heard of this company until recently. We discussed the firm earlier on in our show now post earnings. But the company you're looking at is sezzle within this buy now, pay later space. It was one of the best performers in the group. What stands out to you and what makes it maybe stand out apart from some of its peers? Well, exactly what you just said. It was not that well recognized. Not a lot of people have talked about it, and it looks like it has this thing figured out, because when you go to buy something, you can buy it, get, get it, get the product, but then have immediately a buy now, pay later situation where you're paying the rest of it off over 2 or 3 week period. And I really appreciate it. I hope you have a wonderful wee
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