What I would look for in potential upside with NVIDIA is look for management to outengineer constraints. So when it comes to constraints, for example, something like energy. You have a fixed power envelope. The ways NVIDIA can continue the raise prices and grow its stock is they will simply do more within that power envelope... that is the way that NVIDIA will continue to climb as a stock.
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"What I would look for in potential upside with NVIDIA is look for management to outengineer constraints... that is the way that NVIDIA will continue to climb as a stock."
I would say that AMD has not only one catalyst, but it actually has two catalysts. So it's ramping a new generation of CPU at the same time that they're ramping a new generation of GPUs. That is a powerful combination.
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"I did read right now you like AMD better than NVIDIA. Why?"
I hear a lot about a cyclical top. I just have a really hard time imagining that memory is topping while inference is in such early stages. Those two are quite aligned. And so inference would have to be much further into its market and much further into its rollout compared to memory topping out. It just doesn't make sense.
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"I know you like memory. MICRON... Why do you like it?" / "I hear a lot about a cyclical top..."
Yeah. I guess the way to put it, Charles, is the way the A.I. cluster, the larger it becomes, the harder it is the move the data. And that's why optics can actually grow faster than total GPU count. For that reason, LUMENTOM is not a one-product story. As optics move closer to GPUs next year, LUMENTOM will have multiple ways to participate.
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"You also like KNEW -- LUMENTOM... still maybe you think there's momentum to continue rocking and rolling like this."
Transcrição Completa
CHARLES: ALL RIGHT, THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN TO NVIDIA, FINANCIALS BEING RELEASED AFTER THE CLOSE. STREET'S LOOKING FOR $92 BILLION OF REVENUE. LOOK AT THIS CHART, FOLKS. THIS IS A JUGGERNAUT, AN ABSOLUTE REVENUE JUGGERNAUT. REVENUE'S UP MORE THAN 1200% IN THE PAST 4 YEARS ALONE. THAT CORRESPONDS TO A STOCK THAT'S UP 850% IN THE PAST 5 YEARS, BUT DON'T BE FOOLED, RIGHT? THIS HAS BEEN A VERY BUMPY RIDE. AT TIMES EVERYONE HAS JUMPED OFF THE BANDWAGON EXCEPT MY NEXT GUEST, IO FUNDS CEO AND LEAD TECH ANALYST, BETH KINDIG. BETH, NOBODY DISPUTES NVIDIA AS A MONEY-MAKING MACHINE, BUT OBVIOUSLY THE BIG CONCERN OUT THERE REVOLVES AROUND CIRCUMSTANCE IS LAHR FINANCING. -- CIRCULAR FINANCING. MORGAN STANLEY SAYS THE COMPANY MUST QUANTIFY THESE LIABILITIES, RIGHT? IN OTHER WORDS, WE KNOW THEY WANT TO HAVE CONTROL OVER THEIR SUPPLY AND THE POWER AND THE MODELS IN DEMAND, BUT IS IT WORTH THE TRADE-OFF? >> HI, CHARLES. IS SO GOOD TO SEE YOU. WHAT I WOULD SAY IS THAT NVIDIA IS REALLY AN ECONOMY AT THIS POINT, YOU KNOW? IT'S CONTRIBUTING HEAVILY TO GDP. A. I. IS AT THIS POINT. AND THEN WHEN YOU BREAK DOWN HOW MUCH OF A.I. FUNNELS INTO NVIDIA, TWO-THIRDS OF A.I., AROUND TWO-THIRDS, IS GOING TO NVIDIA. WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT AN MY HERE, NOT JUST A PRODUCT AND A COMPANY. AND I THINK EVERYONE NEEDS TO REIMAGINE WHAT THAT MEANS NOT ONLY FOR THE UNITED STATES, BUT IF OVER ALL A.I --OVER OVER AWL A.I. INDUSTRY. CHARLES: IT HEARKENNENS BACK TO YOU SEE THESE CHARTS ON HOW MUCH WE INFORMED IN CANALS, THEN RAILS, THEN INTO THE INTERNET. AND THERE'S NO DOUBT HUMANKIND, MANKIND DID WELL, THE UNITED STATES DID WELL. BUT FROM AN INVESTOR'S PERSPECTIVE AND SOMEONE WHO WANTS TO SAY, OKAY, NVIDIA, YOU KNOW, IT WAS A GREAT STOCK, IT'S BEEN A JUGGERNAUT FOR A LONG TIME, CAN THE STOCK ITSELF STILL ENJOY POTENTIAL UPSIDE? >> WHAT I WOULD LOOK FOR IN POTENTIAL UPSIDE WITH NVIDIA IS LOOK FOR MANAGEMENT TO OUTENGINEER CONSTRAINTS. SO WHEN IT COMES TO CONSTRAINTS, FOR EXAMPLE, SOMETHING LIKE ENERGY. YOU HAVE A FIXED POWER ENVELOPE. THE WAYS NVIDIA CAN CONTINUE THE RAISE PRICES AND GROW ITS STOCK IS THEY WILL SIMPLY DO MORE WITHIN THAT POWER ENVELOPE, THEY WILL HELP COMPANIES PRODUCE MORE TOKENS, MORE REVENUE WITH ONE GIGAWATT OF POWER. THERE ARE MANY WAYS NVIDIA CAN OUTENGINEER THE CONSTRAINTS THAT THE A.I. INDUSTRY FACES, AND THAT IS THE WAY THAT NVIDIA WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS A STOCK. CHARLES: OVER THE WEEKEND I WAS RAISE -- READING ABOUT THEM RAISING UP THEIR PRICES, AND I WAS READING YOUR NOTE THAT SAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE REVENUE ARE THEIR PROFIT MARGINS. AND I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO CUT BACK A LITTLE BIT MAYBE ON MEMORY. IS THAT ALL PART OF MAINTAINING THOSE HEFTY MARGINS? >> YEAH. SO THE FIRST THING THE STREET WILL WANT TO SEE IS THAT NVIDIA CAN MAINTAIN REVENUE, AND I WOULD SAY THAT NVIDIA CAN MAINTAIN REVENUE. I CAN'T THINK OF ANOTHER COMPANY THAT CAN RAISE PRICES WHILE LOSING MARKET SHARE QUITE LIKE NVIDIA. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, CHARLES, I'M SURE YOU'VE COVERED SO MUCH ON YOUR SHOW THAT MEMORY PRICES ARE SURGING. WE HAVE ADVANCED PACKAGING THAT IS SURGING IN TERMS OF PRICING, AND IN CONTENT, NETWORKING CONTINUE TENT IS ALSO INCREASING. THAT MEANS -- CONTENT. THAT MEANS THE BILL OF MATERIALS IS JUST GROWING, AND THAT WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN NVIDIA'S MARGINS. WE COULD BE SEEING PEAK GROWTH MARGIN FOR NVIDIA, BUT THEIR GROSS MARGINS ARE PRETTY BIG RIGHT NOW. THEY COULD AFFORD TO LOSE A COUPLE OF POINTS. YEAH. CHARLES: I DID READ THAT RIGHT NOW YOU LIKE AMD BETTER THAN NVIDIA. WHY? >> I WOULD SAY THAT AMD HAS NOT ONLY ONE CATALYST, BUT IT ACTUALLY HAS TWO CATALYSTS. SO IT'S RAMPING A NEW GENERATION OF CPU AT THE SAME TIME THAT THEY'RE RAMPING A NEW GENERATION OF GPUs. THAT IS A POWERFUL COMBINATION. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT AMD CAN COMPETE WITH NVIDIA AT THE WHOLE RACK LEVEL, AND THAT'S IMPORTANT. CHARLES: I DID READ SOMEWHERE THOUGH THAT EVENTUALLY NVIDIA COULD BE A CPU LEADER. >> OH, YES, ABSOLUTELY. NVIDIA WILL BE A CP IF U LEADER. DCPU. IT'S REALLY THAT AMD WILL DRIVE DOWN PRICES. THEY WILL TRY TO UNDERCUT NVIDIA ON PRICE X THAT'S WHERE THEY WILL GO HEAD TO HEAD. CHARLES: YOU MENTIONED, WE TALKED ABOUT MEMORY A MOMENT AGO. I KNOW YOU LIKE MEMORY. MICRON, EARLIER TODAY IT WAS $924, NOW IT'S STARTING TO RALLY HIGHER. BUYERS ARE STARTING TO BUY THIS WEAKNESS HERE. WHY DO YOU LIKE IT? >> I HEAR A LOT ABOUT A CYCLICAL TOP. I JUST HAVE A REALLY HARD TIME IMAGINING THAT MEMORY IS TOPPING WHILE INFERENCE IS IN SUCH EARLY STAGES. THOSE TWO ARE QUITE ALIGNED. AND SO INFERENCE WOULD HAVE TO BE MUCH FURTHER INTO ITS MARKET AND AND MUCH FURTHER INTO ITS ROLLOUT COMPARED TO MEMORY TOPPING OUT. IT JUST DOESN'T MAKE SENSE. CHARLES: YOU ALSO LIKE KNEW -- LUMENTOM, UP, LIKE, A THOUSAND PERCENT IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS AND STILL MAYBE YOU THINK THERE'S MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE ROCKING AND ROLLING LIKE THIS. >> YEAH. I GUESS THE WAY TO PUT IT, CHARLES, IS THE WAY THE A.I. CLUSTER, THE LARGER IT BECOMES, THE HARDER IT IS THE MOVE THE DATA. AND THAT'S WHY OPTICS CAN ACTUALLY GROW FASTER THAN TOTAL GPU COUNT. FOR THAT REASON, LUMENTOM IS NOT A ONE-PRODUCT STORY. AS ON THER -- OPTICS MOVE CLOSER TO GPUs NEXT YEAR, LUMENTOM WILL HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO PARTICIPATE. CHARLES: I KNOW YOU'RE ALSO LOOKING AT THE CYBERSECURITY SPACE AS WELL. GOING TO INVITE YOU BACK. ONE THING I LOVE TO DO IS GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE AHEAD OF THESE NUMBERS, PARTICULARLY NVIDIA. COME BACK TOMORROW AFTER THIS NUMBER AND TALK ABOUT WHAT T
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