Recomendações
Entrada é o preço de fechamento do ativo na data de publicação. Atual é o último fechamento registrado.
-
Entrada $63,66 01 set 2026Atual $63,66 01 set 2026Resultado −$0,01vs. índice +0,0% SPY +0,0% no mesmo período
I would look at Baker Hughes.
Contexto “Instead, I would look at Baker Hughes. Baker Hughes has been the laggard of this group all year...”
Transcrição Completa
Trump just cut the biggest oil deal in history, and he won't tell you who's on the other side of it. On Friday, August 28th, President Trump announced the United States is taking control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, 17 oil fields, a 100red-year lease, 55% of that output coming to the United States. Now, if that holds, the company sitting on those fields becomes the second largest owner of oil reserves on planet Earth, behind only Saudi Aramco. Yet, crude prices didn't budge. Why? Because the market knows where the money is, and it is not in a barrel of oil. Today, I'm going to show you who the government's actual partner in this deal is. Since the White House still has not said it out loud. Now, that might have to do with the Swiss extradition request, they had to get cancelled, but we'll talk about that. I'm also going to show you the one stock that stands to benefit along with the acquisition in July that makes them the only solution to make this whole thing possible. So, make sure to subscribe to the channel cuz this story is nowhere close to over. Now, let's start with the numbers. Trump said his administration has secured quote majority US control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. A press release claims 55% of the quote effective output of this new joint venture. Now 55% sounds like ownership. It isn't. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal has two pieces. The Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital takes a 35% stake, but through penny warrants, meaning the United States government gets a third of the oil company for essentially nothing down. Then separately, Washington gets the right to buy 20% of everything that company produces at cost. So they took 35 plus 20, there's your 55. Now, it's not really a stake in anything. It is a warrant which does have control in a purchase option. But you add them together, put it in a press release, that's where the number came from. But hold on a second. Why is a Pentagon financing office doing an oil deal at all? because the oil companies said no. Exon Mobile walked. Kico Phillips walked. Exon CEO has called the country uninvestable. And he has a good reason. They were expropriated down there back in 2007. The government took all their stuff and they're still owed. Venezuela is sitting under roughly $170 billion in claims and arbitration awards. So any dollar you invest today stands in line behind all of those. So the majors passed which left Washington needing somebody who would say yes and that somebody is a man named Alejandro Bettincort. Now he controls a company called North American Blue Energy Partners. In about 2 years he built it into the second largest private oil producer in Venezuela pumping around 200,000 barrels a day. He's the one holding those 17 fields. So why hasn't the White House named him? Because Alejandro Bettincort has been a bad boy. He was investigated in Spain over allegedly embezzling hundreds of millions of dollars from PDVSA. In the United States, federal prosecutors named him conspirator 2 in a case over 1.2 billion dollars where his own business partner got indicted. Switzerland was investigating him for moneyaundering. And then over the last few months, a mysterious thing happened. Spain threw out its case. Prosecutors in the US decided not to charge him. and Switzerland cancelled their extradition order at the request of the White House. So, this is not a normal transaction, but it tells you how badly Washington wanted this thing signed. So, how do we trade it? Well, not with oil. And I want to be precise here because a lot of people are going to get this one wrong. These fields are undeveloped. No serious person thinks they'll produce any meaningful barrels for several years. Venezuela right now pumps about a million barrels a day against a peak which is north of three million. So this is not bringing down gas prices this year. Okay. Now watch what the tape actually did on Friday. Schlumbumberge went up 4.2%. Crude oil did nothing. The market didn't buy the oil, it bought the guys with the wrenches. Now, back on January the 9th, following the capture of Maduro, I put out a video on this channel telling you this rebuild was coming. It had nothing to do with a price of oil and that three companies would get paid to do the work. Hallebertton, Baker Hughes, and Slumber. And I gave you some call options that would expire in December. We could hold to play this out. SLB more than doubled. Baker Hughes more than doubled. Hallebertton, okay, didn't win them all, but didn't lose here. But now there is another way to play it and it's a trade you can take right now. You see the services companies get paid just to show up. Slumber signed an agreement in August 19th to run reservoir studies across the entire country and they collect on that study whether or not one single barrel comes out of the ground. Now before we go too much further, if you like this kind of content, if you are ready to take yourself to the next level of your investing or your trading, you need to join my Black Ops trading service. Okay? It is five bucks. five bucks for the entire year. We'll get together live for an hour every single week for an entire year where I'll go over my favorite stocks, the patterns that point to these stocks uh likely going higher, how to keep risktight, all of it. Every week for a year, plus a session with my analyst, plus indicators, plus my weekly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox every Friday night. All of it just five bucks. No trickery, no crazy renewal stuff. Seriously, $5. So, click that link, scan the QR code, or just go to tradewithross.com to get signed up and let's start working together. All right, so back to the topic. Where's the money go from here? Well, not in a slumber. I still like this company, but it's already run this year. The trade has been made. Instead, I would look at Baker Hughes. Baker Hughes has been the lagard of this group all year. It's still about 10% below its 52- week high, while Slumber is at its highs. And six weeks ago on July 16th, with almost nobody paying attention, Baker Hughes closed a 13.6 billion dollar acquisition of a company called Chart Industries. And what that handed them was an entire new business segment, one built on $4.3 billion of revenue that includes compression trains, cryogenic gas process, industrial gas handling. Now, here is why that matters in Venezuela, and it's the part you need to hear. You can't restart an oil industry in a company that can't keep its own lights on. Venezuela's power demand at its peak hit 15,575 megawws this year, the highest in a decade, but the grid has just 13,000 megawatts that are actually being produced. So, demand already exceeds supply there. Zulia and Merida were running 7-hour daily outages this year. Roughly 90% of Venezuelans see routine outages and you cannot run pumps and compressors and desalination units or control rooms on that kind of unreliable power. But the fix is sitting right underneath them. Venezuela has around 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Much of it coming up with the oil just getting burned off into the sky. But you gather that gas, you compress it, you clean it, and you burn it on site to make your own power. So compression, gas processing, that is precisely the business Baker Hughes just bought. So Baker Hughes gets paid on the wells and then gets paid again on the equipment required to run them. One ticker, two wins, and a second one didn't even exist two months ago. Now, Wall Street's average price target for Baker Hughes is about $72, roughly 14% above where it trades right now. I think that's low. if real contract awards start landing in Venezuela. I think Baker Hughes is a hundred plus dollar stock over the next 12 months. So, here's what I will be watching. Baker Hughes reports third quarter earnings on October 22nd. That is the first quarter where Venezuela either shows up in their orders w with a real number attached or it doesn't. If it does, everything I just walked you through gets a lot more expensive in a hurry. That gets priced into the stock. And if these companies get all the way through October, uh, we don't hear anything about Venezuela, then this was just a press release and it's unlikely to be priced into any stock during this year. That's what I'm watching. Wanted to keep you updated and folks, don't forget to subscribe to the channel. Don't forget to join my Black Ops trading service. You'll be amazed what you can learn in a year, one-hour lessons every single week. I'll look at your stocks. I'll show you my favorites. They're interactive. Love having you guys and I'd love to have you as a member. So, click that link in description, get signed up, and otherwise I'll see you in the next
Comentários 0
Entre para participar da discussão.
EntrarAinda não há comentários. Seja o primeiro a compartilhar sua opinião!