BRAP4: PROCESSO DE R$4,0Bi É O MAIOR RISCO EM BRADESPAR?

Let's go, guys, let's talk about Bradespar, okay? The expectation here is for extraordinary dividends due to a trigger from Vale. We are going to talk a little bit about that as well. We'll go over the numbers and the issue of stock lending. I took all the data from the company's own earnings report and I want to translate that for you in this very condensed and direct report I've prepared. I currently hold Bradespar shares. I have a return of almost 30%, and I've been carrying them for some time in our public portfolio here on the channel. It is a fact that since its recent high back in April until now , it has had a drop of about 10%, but the stock is trying to recover. For example, today it closed up 3.29%, and if you look at the last few days, from its floor to this moment here, about 15 %in 12 bars, which is close to two weeks. So let's understand a little more about Bradespar's dynamics and if it still makes sense. The Lel case issue is not what is most frightening; believe it or not, there is another tax point here that we call the twin, which few people dispute, and we will also try to understand it a little better. And I want to know at the end if you agree with the thesis, if you invest, are keeping an eye on it, or if it has become a forgotten thesis; comment below if you like the video. So let's get started. The first thing we are going to consider here is that we did indeed have some zig-zagging on the chart. A large part of these events or this rise is due to a subsequent event. What event is that? On 07/30, Vale approved the distribution of R $ 2 per share in interest on equity plus dividends to be paid today, 09/02/2026. It is no coincidence that we had a rise on the chart, because the market is pricing in the anticipation that Bradespar will be receiving this flow, right? In other words, in case you are new to Bradespar, Bradespar is nothing more than a holding company, and this holding company has about 4.84%of Vale's voting capital. So everything that Vale receives, earns, and has, right? Oops, Vale. What it receives and earns here, due to the holding effect, Bradespar also earns. Because it has a smaller structure, Bradespar normally pays more dividends, right? A company here, a holding entity with a tax ID that has a large part or essentially Vale shares, nearly 5%, and more cash on hand, reaching almost one billion. So, what do they understand? Since Vale is going to pay, Bradespar will receive its 5%share, so they'll take that cash, right, at R $ 2 per share. If they have 5%of Vale, they will distribute it to their shareholders. Look there, this has already happened in recent periods. Look there, they should announce, or it's probable, let's call it probable, an extraordinary distribution in the coming weeks, repeating the historical pattern. The company distributed almost everything it received from Vale, maintaining its nature as a pure holding company with no other operations, right? In other words, everything it gets, maybe taking out a little for administrative costs, 2 to 3 %, and passing almost all of it on, okay? Not an obvious reading. What do we have here? The rally isn't just 100% Bradespar; it's a reflection of Vale's capital allocation dynamics. This is important because any investor entering the upside gap is buying leveraged exposure at a discount, right? Regarding Bradespar here. That's it. Many in the market say the cheapest way to buy Vale is by buying Bradespar. Why ? Because it's a holding company, it mirrors Vale, okay? And you manage to buy more shares for a lower price. For example, today Bradespar is trading at 22.98, right? If you look at Vale3, what is it at? Vale3. You'll get one Vale share, okay? R $ 80.80. So what happens? Instead of getting Vale, it's better to get BRAP4, right? BRAP4. You'll buy almost four shares of Bradespar and receive it per share, right? I mean, if the dividend is one, while it's one for Vale, here you'll receive practically four dividends, right? That's a rough calculation, okay ? But here's the thing: the market obviously isn't stupid. To dump Vale and keep Bradespar, you have to pay the holding risk. Usually, this risk refers to what the controllers and managers will do with the company, right? They could, for example, today they have 5% of Vale, but they could come along and insert a company like, for example, CVC , or a flip-flop company, or Casas Bahia, well, not anymore, right? But anyway, the holding risk is that, right ? Whatever comes to their minds, they can put it inside the holding company, and have other companies here in the conglomerate. For now, it's just Vale, right? Unlike, for example, Itaúsa, which has, well, all kinds of companies in there, right? Not that it’s a bad company, or a bad holding, but there is that risk. And today Bradespar offers a premium of approximately a 30%discount. In other words, you buy Vale at a 30% discount via Bradespar, obviously absorbing the risks. And speaking of which, what are these risks? Let's start with the Litel case, which has dragged on for a long time. If you don't know, the Litel case is the call sit case, right? Linked there to the issue of the Vale privatization in 2021 and also the 2018 Bradespar/Litel case. What’s happening here, right? The company was sued, Bradespar agreed to pay, but didn't warn its partner in the deal, Litel. Litel said they weren't going to agree to pay a 1.4 billion arbitration, so they went and sued Bradespar. They said, "What kind of deal is this, making an agreement here with Eltron saying we're going to split this bill?" I didn't agree to that. Bradespar agreed, but didn't tell Litel anything. Litel was caught by surprise and said, "I'm not paying that." So this here is a litigation case. Look, Litel filed a recourse action against Bradespar, alleging that the Bradesco holding company strategically led the decision to breach the contract with Eletro in 2007, and that the pension funds were induced to support the litigation. In the first instance, Bradespar won. In January 2021, the court in Rio de Janeiro overturned the decision in favor of Litel. This is a procedural situation that has been ongoing since then, right? It's already in the second instance, okay? Up to here, I’ve included the latest update . This was in month 6, right? Now in 2026, excuse me, in month 2 of 26. Everything totals something around 3 billion. It would be something around 3.50 to 7.60 per share, depending on the arbitration. And the company itself classifies this as possible, not probable, which is why it doesn't appear on the company's balance sheet, okay? So that is the situation. But to make things better, there is also another risk, a tax one. Not many people comment on this, so what is it? Look, Litel isn't the only one, right? But there is also something else, note nine here in the report; we take it and scrutinize it here, right? Look, there's the note here, it talks about this guy here. Let's go observe, I'll highlight it in yellow for you, look. The Federal Revenue Service contests the deductibility of expenses with Electron in the 2018 fiscal year, charging the company 1 billion. The CARF maintained authorization regarding the merit in November 2025. Bradespar can still appeal, but it’s something that ranges from 3.8 to 4 billion, including the litigation case, okay? So , all of this combined, it could exceed 4 billion, not just the 1.4 billion mentioned above, okay? So you also have to be careful with the tax issue here, okay? These are the cases that are currently dampening confidence for many regarding Bradespar. Let’s talk a little about the 2026 results. Net profit was 252 million. Look, a 43%drop compared to 2025, which had been 450 million, and that had been very good. In the accumulated first half, profit grew 4%, which is in line. Be careful when analyzing headlines. Look a bit deeper into the news to really understand it. That was a very good year, okay? Look at that. The reason isn't operational; it's the comparison base. In 2025, Vale reported an exceptionally strong result, okay? So in the first half, it performed a bit better, okay? When comparing the semester, the market reaction was discreet and neutral. During the trading session, the number itself surprised no one. XP analyst maintains a neutral rating. Target price of 24.50 . What else is there? Look. Other firms mention a holding discount of 36%to 37% over the net asset value, which Bradespar lists as an opportunity, depending on how observant you are regarding the litigation case. It is also worth highlighting the research consensus on iron ore. Ore traded between 100 and 110 per ton, with port inventories in China rising 14%compared to the average of the last 5 years, okay? So there is plenty of supply out there. Let’s also talk about stock lending now. Stock lending has been weighing a bit on Bradespar, although it has eased up recently, just so you have an idea. Lending rates here almost reached 14%. Recently it hit 11.5%. Now it has settled at 4.8%. Calm. But in terms of volume, when you look, there is 357 million reais locked in borrowed shares, okay? This slightly compromises the freedom the chart has, right, to be able to rise, because you pressure short selling, right, you add more sell calls, more, right, uh, sales, than actual buying, okay? So, this generates an exacerbated pressure, especially on the price, right? If there's a higher sales volume, this puts pressure on it, okay? But what can we understand here, let's see. I also put together this summary here. Oh, folks, and if you want to create these same reports and even more advanced reports, I invite you to click the link that I'll leave in both the description and the comments, which is for our training on investing with artificial intelligence. The promotion ends this week, okay? Starting at the turn of the week, I will already change it to R $ 97. 67 is still the promotional price. You learn to create your own reports, pulling data directly from the company's own R, right? So, you learn to create your own reports, rankings, comparisons, momentum analysis, especially now during election season, right? How news can impact your assets. Comparative ranking too, all for just 67. It's not 12 payments of 67, it's just R $ 67. Cheaper than a pizza. And all the resources here are free, you don't need to pay anything, there's no trick, no trap, okay? Lifetime access. Returning, so let's go. Let's understand a little more about the rental dynamics here. What happened? Oh, currently the rental rate is at 4 to 5%, close to the lows. This is consistent with the moment, less need for a hedge, precisely in the period of greater clarity regarding cash flow and confirmed distribution of dividends. A slightly obvious insight, rental spikes seem historically concentrated near decisions or relevant updates on the Little and CARF process. It's worth monitoring if a new spike emerges when the court here signals a trial date. So, basically, it's more of a risk regarding the procedural issue than the Bradespar business itself. And now we enter this point where we list the positive aspects, right, for those who want to invest, and the points of caution, okay? So, positive point, we have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, oh, a high holding discount of 36 to 37%historically, right? The largest discount there is, zero debt at the holding level, high dividends, more than 10%in the last 12 months. Vale's new buyback program, look at that, up to 100 million shares, signaling management's confidence. This also impacts Bradespar, it will increase, since they hold 4.84%. As you remove and cancel shares, you increase your unit stake, right? Exposure to Vale's copper and nickel, the best-performing segments in the miner's portfolio, right, by rebound effect here Bradespar is also exposed. So there are these positive points, and points of caution here. Legal risk concentrated and not provisioned. Arriving here, right, with a relevant portion of the equity, around 1 to 4 billion, a single asset without operational diversification. In my view , in my point of view, it's an advantage, right? It being 100%Vale is great for me. Uh, the tax reform on dividends already in effect since '26, brings uncertainty regarding future distribution of earnings. Especially regarding holding companies. Governance of a bank-owned family holding company, this too, right? So, concentrated control of Bradesco via Cidade de Deus, Bradesco Foundation, low free float, and iron ore is further pressured by China's growing demand here, right? Weakness, right? Persistent in demand. There is a lot, there is a lot of idle steel. Let's get to our verdict. What is our verdict on Bradespar? Today it is less of a bet on mining and more of a bet on legal resolution. The valuation of 22.95 already reflects a good part of the expected cash flow. Look, the remaining short-term upside is limited. XP set it at 24.50. The real trigger here is the quarterly results and also the legal resolution of the Litell case, okay? The profile only makes sense for those who already understand and accept this binary risk as a central part of the thesis and not as a footnote, okay? So, in other words , basically your thesis will depend on this decision. Well, and if you would like a more personalized analysis, call me on WhatsApp. We can provide you with personalized consulting, both by reading your portfolio and suggesting a portfolio that fits your profile according to your suitability and analysis with total transparency. We are certified and approved by the CVM, okay? And if you liked the video, consider leaving a like, subscribing to our channel, and sharing our content. Thank you for your attention. See you later.