BBAS3, BBDC4, ITUB4 ou SANB11? Este BANCÃO foi o VENCEDOR da TEMPORADA DE RESULTADOS do 2T26

We did this, we took some more recent data here, both on defaults here, not only for companies, but also for individuals, right? Which you can see here at the bottom of the chart. You start to see that, in recent months, we've seen a relatively strong, increase in defaults here, which means that people are paying off their debts less, right? In general, that's what we can see in this chart. And at the top, another set of data that also shows a bit of this situation is the household income commitment, right? So it's separated here, right? One calculation here with the part dedicated to real estate financing and the other without, but both are also showing record levels if we look back at the historical comparison. So these two charts show that this combination of slowing activity and high interest rates is really starting to weigh on not just people, but also companies, right? And of course, it always hits the headlines with many bankruptcies, but in daily life, this is happening to your neighbor, sometimes, or even to people watching here; it's not easy for many people, right? You can move on to the next slide. And here is the big question, many people ask: "Oh, is it time to get out of banks? Is it difficult for banks now, so is it better to look for other investments in other sectors, right? And I think this chart, this slide shows very well why we believe it's important to be very selective, right? It shows Itaú's results here and some characteristics of Itaú's second-quarter results, compared to its main competitors, the big banks we talk about, the main ones. We can see in general, right? These red boxes show, I think, the most significant deteriorations, right? And you will see that the significant deteriorations are mainly there in the lines for Santander and Banco do Brasil , both in defaults and also in the increase in provisions for losses, right? Basically, what is written off by banks because they believe they will no longer receive those payments. So you can see that Itaú ends up being the winner here in basically all areas, right? Yeah, and this really shows why we keep Itaú in our portfolio, why we continue to like Itaú so much, and why we understand that Itaú is well-prepared even if this credit scenario continues to worsen, right? And remember that July data is already out, and these results are from June, right? Up to June, which is the second quarter; the July results continue to show a decline, but we understand that Itaú remains very well positioned. So, this banking theme has gained a lot of focus here this month of August. Just to put our Itaú investors more at ease here. We have it in our dividend portfolio and it remains a pillar of our strategy. And here, I think just to understand a little bit why we like the bank so much, right? Cool. And I think it aligns with some studies we've done as well, Laí, in the sense that there are moments when the scenario is challenging, whether through inflation or through interest rates. Anyway, I think they align, and banks historically maintain a very solid level of profitability in Brazil. Yes. And this translates—translating some results, right? Do you want to comment quickly? Yeah, we did a study that will be published soon—giving you a spoiler —in the coming weeks. We’re just finishing up a few technical points, but we already have the main framework ready. And basically, what did we want to investigate? We wanted to investigate the sectoral return of the stock market and the Bovespa index as a whole, but we also got into granularity by sectors and some stocks as well. Under a 12-month ex-ante real interest rate metric. And why a 12-month ex-ante real interest rate? Because the real interest rate is actually what should impact a good company, right? Because we consider that a good company passes inflation on to its prices. So you remove the inflation part from the nominal interest rate, and what’s left is the real interest rate. And why 12-month ex-ante? Because that is a more feasible timeframe for the fundraising duration of that company, of companies, right, and of people. In other words, when you borrow money, you borrow it for a term, and you’ll take it for at least a year. So, this interest rate level for one year from now is effectively the rate that should impact the real economy much more than if you conducted a study for the Selic or for another horizon, right? So, when we look at this, we see the history of this ex-ante real interest rate, look at the stock market sectors, even considering, obviously, the composition of that sector point by point since 2010, we conducted the study, and we see that at the real interest rate level we are at today, which is around 9.2%, this 12-month ex-ante real rate, the financial sector continues to be a very attractive sector versus the Ibovespa. So, it has generated excess return in relation to the Ibovespa when we look at the history here of the Brazilian stock market, right? And I think the other important point to add to this study that Rui brought up is precisely the direction of interest rates as well, right? When you are in this range that we are in regarding real interest rates, whether you are climbing toward this range or descending, it makes a difference. This first derivative makes a difference when we look at the sector returns as well, right? And so we see a return when interest rates are falling, right? And we are in this movement, the ex-ante real rate is also falling. Probably next year we will even change our theoretical range from our study to something closer to 8%. You have very expressive returns both from the stock index and the financial sector standing out within the market, right? Uh-huh. So, some questions here in the chat are already answered, it's great to have your participation, everyone, please send in more questions. Juan asks:" Which sectors can we consider more defensive for a scenario of interest rate uncertainty and elections ? "I think the first part is answered, although we have seen it, I wanted to bring up a bit of this topic, Rui, which is that banks historically have very favorable profitability, and you showed that in the slide. However, there has been some change in the revenue configuration in these last quarters; perhaps the services component, right, has been altered. In the same way, credit has been a point of attention. Would you like to talk a little bit about this more micro dynamic? No, I think not only this composition of where the credit comes from, but also this breakdown of revenues. So, historically, especially here in the last 15 years, we’ve seen the service composition of banks, which is a much more stable revenue stream, without the issue of credit risk; so it ended up being very profitable revenue for banks , you know, like those fees for current accounts, checkbooks, and other administrative services. That has been more compressed in recent quarters and years as well. And we understand that this is partly due to the entry of fintechs, and we understand that Nubank has been responsible for this compression, you know, of these service results. Nubank has historically operated under the banner of more services with lower costs for the customer, always trying to lower costs for the client. This ends up affecting the big banks in some way. We have been seeing this in their results. And it's interesting to note that Itaú, even with still very resilient results, made an adjustment to their guidance this last quarter that was precisely in the services line, right? So this doesn't change the bank's profit or our outlook for good results, but they will have to look in other avenues, which is what the bank has been doing. And this isn't just an issue for Itaú; it's just a more striking example here, but the other banks have been showing this as well. Another change we've been seeing here is quite interesting. Since we had the commodities boom, let’s say, with soy and other grains rising significantly, we ended up seeing credit for agribusiness rising a lot, and Banco do Brasil ends up being the biggest beneficiary. And for a long time, Banco do Brasil saw results and profits rise in an absurd way, right? So, Banco do Brasil even reached a level of profitability second in the sector, which is something unimaginable if it weren't for the agribusiness factor. And what we have been seeing now is a reverse movement. Because agribusiness has been suffering more, with grain prices under pressure for quite some time now, this is pressuring the profitability of Banco do Brasil and affecting their results too. So, in a general way, there is the financial sector. Laís did this very cool study, showing that it is a sector more resilient to these interest rate issues and macro events. But, uh, some things are changing and it's important, that's why it's so important for you to be selective, right? Because sure, the bank is cool, it's a guy who will usually be less, uh, exposed many times than retail, for example, or someone who needs credit there, okay? More exposed to cyclical issues, but it's not just any bank either, right? It is important for you to be selective at this time, right? Totally. It's not with just any of the players that you'll be able to protect yourself.