The Big 3: VZ, NEM, SPCX

get your podcasts. Welcome back to trading 360. I'm Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks three charts and three trades for you. Rick Duquette will take us through the charts today here to take us through the trades. Dan Deming Managing Partner at K-m Financial. Dan great to have you back on. We've got some great earnings reactions this morning although maybe not if you're a Broadcom this morning. Despite there being good numbers we got jobless claims out. But of course everybody waiting for the jobs report tomorrow. In terms of getting a bigger picture on the Fed's path forward potentially. How are you looking at the markets right now. Resilient. I think Mali you know you're seeing a little bit of a breather here in interest rates today. Even though crude continues to move higher interest rates are coming off, at least for today. And I think that that's offering a little bit of a sentiment shift as we move towards that nonfarm payroll report tomorrow morning. But I think resilience is really the key here. As you know, there's a significant amount of bearishness, and it's been heavily telegraphed coming into September. And I'm going to it will be interesting to see if it actually works its way into the market, because typically when you see these things get telegraphed the way this thing has been preannounced, the market has a tendency to do the exact opposite. And I think that's part of the shift today as well, is we're seeing a pushback against that narrative. All right. So as we're seeing a pushback against this bearish narrative, then let's go into the big three here and see how they come into play there. You've got Verizon as your first pick, performing well year to date outperforming the market. We're up 23%. So how are you looking at Verizon right now Dan. Well to me it looks like it's poised to possibly push above this technical level where there's resistance earlier in the year. And you know, the idea here is a couple of things. Number one, the trade example today is a buy, right. And I like the idea of owning the stock longer term. Even if the calls don't come into fruition, if we don't see the significant rise in the market over the next several months, but owning the stock at a 5.6% yield, annual yield is compelling particularly I think in today's market, when you're looking for some diversification and also the opportunity to capture some premium, but also capture potentially a move higher from these current levels. All right, Rick, we're only about a dollar off of the 52 week highs for Verizon. So with that said do you see the potential to even move higher from here. Well we are approaching that level as you say here. And to visualize it right around here is this set of old highs that formed a ceiling for the intraday high came in at 5168. We are within striking distance. So one caveat I would say is that the general price pattern is more of a rising wedge type shape. Here we have a trend line here that has been going across our lows. Another accompanying boundary line going across the highs. You can see that they are converging toward each other with a steeper slope on the bottom here, typically regarded as a bit more of a bearish setup if you adhere to this type of pattern here. But I always say take that with a grain of salt. Really, it can break either way, because what you're looking for mainly would be just a push beyond either of these two lines here. And in case of the upside above this recent ceiling near about 5075 that we formed as well. So if we do make a strong close above that level, that would put the old highs near 5168 as a much greater target to be cognizant of here. Meanwhile, to the downside, 4912 was a relative low we saw as well as 48. So those would be some other downside levels to watch if you had more of a bearish perspective. So our moving averages in this case show our five day EMA, our dark blue weekly exponential moving average, lining up with our trend line right around 5018. So that would be a notable as a confluence of support if it were to be breached. Our 21 day EMA in teal comes in at 49. That could be another area to watch out for. RSI still following our green trend line moving upward here, you could look for a break above that 70 level into the overbought area for a sign of further strength to come, especially if we do start taking out those old highs. Volume profile shows that mostly the trading activity near where we are now is between 49 to 51, with a particular spike right around here near about 5050 or so. So if we start to get too far below 49, things do thin out. All right, Dan, and as we as we look here at Verizon, I know you want to do a buy right here. What strike prices are you looking at here. Yeah. So I'm looking at the January 55th call here. Marley. With the current levels I think we're slightly higher. But it was trading around $1 and ten. So you can get a little over 2% return versus the stock over the next four months. But really the idea here is to own the stock and again, capture the dividend as hopefully the momentum continues. And we do see a break above this 51 level in the coming months. And you know, I think that also the idea here is to create an exit point in 2027. If there is the thought of taking the position off, then you have several a year basically to manage the tax consequence. But I think overall, just the general trends here and the idea that this is a stock, I think that again, not a highlighted stock, but really when you look at the price action, pretty impressive here over the last several months. And if it does break above those early year highs I think there's further upside. All right. And then let's talk about one that I've been talking about quite a bit in terms of gold miners. Newmont. We've seen nice growth across this space over the last 52 weeks. This one's up close to 70%. So what are your expectations when it comes to Newmont? Yeah, I mean, I like the setup here from a technical standpoint. I'd be interested to see how Rick looks at this as well. But to me, you know, the fact that it really gave up a little ground, but now it looks like it's poised to potentially recapture some of this upside momentum. And we got a challenge ahead of us. When you look at it from a technical standpoint, from the January and February double top, that it has not been able to get above. But I think if it does, then you got further upside here. And also, I want to point out, Marley, the one thing I think that really helps this stock moving forward is the focus on copper as well. Certainly it's viewed as a gold miner, but I think it's also working, exploring heavily into the copper area as well. And I think that that's going to continue to help the stock moving forward. Yeah. Copper and silver, both very important parts of this AI infrastructure build out. So Rick, as we look at the technicals and the setup that Dan was just mentioning there, he did mention they've given back some of their gains. We're now on the rise again. Are you seeing the potential for a breakout here. Well we have kind of a similar picture here to our last one. This perhaps looks even stronger I would say because 135 was roughly where we had our old intraday highs. We did have a pullback from that point here and a bit of a swoon. But now we have had a very rapid push back to the upside. And now we can see that we've made a better intraday high. Not only that but also a higher close. So 13529 was our intraday high. And our our best close now was far above our previous highs. So what we have now though is again a bit of a pullback here. What I notice in this case is 121 which was around where we saw highs after a gap down and a repeated ceiling. Here once again two is the floor that we did not even really come close to to breaking through. We kind of tested that level here. So now we are traveling to the upside once again. So on one hand, you could say we have this trend line here and this trend line here pointing down to give us more of this triangular shape. I think I also might argue there's the potential here for the bull flag type of setup here where we had a push to the upside, a very sharp rally. Now we're seeing a brief sideways to downward consolidation. So if you were looking for this pattern to play out then the the push above 135 is the area that you'd want to be watching out for especially carefully here. If we do start to break above our trend line, we are holding on above our five day weekly EMA. 12747 is where that one comes in. Meanwhile, our teal monthly EMA comes in at 12179. RSI was traveling lower, but we are on the seeming to break above our downward sloping red trend line here today. So again, if you do start to see a breakout, look for price to take out the old highs and for RSI to start pushing above the 70 threshold to remain in the overbought area, those would be kind of confirmatory signals if they were happening together. Volume profile in this case shows we have 124 to 127 as a node. So we are remaining above that level. But really there's quite a bit of activity down here between 105 to 120. There's more specific areas of concentration here, but for our purposes, 124 to 127 stands out more in the short term. All right. And for Newmont today we are up more than 4% trading at 1308 right now. Dan, your last one here is an interesting one. I love when people bring space because everybody wants to play space differently right now. And then I also like watching Rick go through the technicals with the limited amount that we have to do. But right now space is trading about 149 and some change. I've had people bring me the thesis that it's only good below the IPO price. So how are you looking at space right now and how would you play it where it currently stands? Yeah, there's not a lot to work with here, Rick. But at the same time almost three months now. But nonetheless, the reason I wanted to focus this focus on this stock today, I think, is because now that it's been through the initial kind of re valuation process, I guess, and we did see, you know, significant selling pressure and a lot of naysayers coming into the market. I think now after it's kind of found its footing here to some degree and the potential looking as it's going to take out that 150 level. And if it maintains its momentum, I think it could certainly see some significant price appreciation over the next month or two. And that's really it. I think it's found its footing. And when you look at the price action here, you're looking at the price action in other parts of this sector and just the potential for this stock. I think there's further upside. Now today's trade example is defined risk trade example as well. So at least it's not about just jumping in with both feet. But I think there is a potential here to capture a significant breakout above the 150 level. All right. So as we look at the technicals that we do have for space, are you also seeing the 150 level as an important level here. Yes indeed. So that's the the red line that I have here identified on our chart, because it's where we topped out several times. And now we find ourselves quite close to that point again today. So if we were to move higher beyond this area here, 176 really stands out to me because that was a significant peak that we saw here after the shortly after that IPO. That was kind of where the Bulls made it, made a stand before an eventual decline here. If you were more looking for supportive areas here, right here. Our first green line near 136 was often where price stopped and solidified, but it was breached. We also saw 130 come into play. Old highs here, a high here after earnings and then repeated lows. So that would be a very important area to if especially if it were breached it could then open the door to these areas down here near 107. So and also too, when we you know, despite not having a ton of data to work with here, we can still look at the hourly charts. Technical analysis is more fractal in nature. It operates independently of time frames often here. So we are going to switch back to a daily chart. Now our previous chart was hourly here because we want to look at RSI our measure of momentum. So it's a little harder to see. We do have limited data here. That's why there's a gap at the front of the chart. But RSI is trending upward. We are making highs above our our relative high here as well. We can see our moving averages. Simple moving averages in this case here our olive colored one our 20 day comes in at 140. And our darker blue one comes in right around 136 or so. So price is crossing above our our longer term moving average that we have available right now. Finally, in this case, to switch back to our hourly chart, we can look at our volume profile. So here is the node in question that stands out the most 132 to about 142. Because it contains our point of control. This thick red line which is our heaviest trading area of all. So we have broken above that. And now we are starting to work our way into 149 to 163 above 163. There's very little trading activity. So you could see faster moving prices and breakout type of activity. If we do start to clear some of those old highs. And so Dan, as we look at how we play space here, what are you focused on specifically here? What kind of trade are we looking at? Yeah. Marley you know, again defined risk really, I think is the first thing that came to mind. I certainly am impressed by the turnaround here and the potential from a technical standpoint that we could see further upside here in pretty short order. So today's trade example is a call spread. It's a 151 80th October call spread 43 days out to expiration. Again capturing the potential breakout above 150. As Rick said, 176 is a level that I also did see on the technical pattern, and that's why I framed this trade example around that 150 to 180 level. So really about a month and a half here to capture a breakout and about a little over 3 to 1 risk reward on this trade example. But ideally the thought process here is to define risk. If there is a false, you know, telling of what the charts are saying and the fact that we fall off, you know, certainly defining that downside risk, I think is key here. But this also allows for a significant upside capture. If we do see a breakout above. 150 and 157 40 is our break even there. Right now we are at 14922 with space up more than 6% so far on the session today. Dan, always appreciate you being with us for big three. Thanks for