Bitcoin: This Is So Close To Ending (but don’t get complacent)

All right, guys. Welcome back to the channel. It's Jason Pazino with tiainvestor.com. We're getting very close to the end. That's what we're discussing in today's video. Make sure you like the content and subscribe to the channel so you don't miss the daily updates on Bitcoin metals, the real estate cycle, and of course, the stock markets, which I'll touch on in today's video, as we've seen some pretty good moves on the stock market at this stage of the cycle. Okay, let's kick it off with Bitcoin. We have a few things to cover here today and these are our major indicators that when they go off they usually or basically in Bitcoin's history suggest that the cycle low is in and that the next phase begins usually a bull market. But of course we need to be a little cautious because well with a stage that we're at in the real estate cycle. Anyway, let's go through them one by one with the first of them being probably what I've seen to be the most difficult to understand, but it is very simple in its theory. And that theory is looking at the change in the amount of sellers and buyers. sellers becoming well less and they basically sold out everything they have to and the buyers stepping back in and basically overbalancing the selling action now flipping to the bullish action. And we've seen this across all time frames, every major turning point. And also, if you trade on a shorter time frame, you'll see it on short-term time frames, which is what a a lot of guys use to trade the markets along with a swing. Basically, telling you where the direction of the market and so far, TIA Pro, TIA Premium members have done amazingly well with this latest move to the upside trading metals. Here is Paladium trading stocks, SpaceX trading cryptocurrencies as you can see here. So, congrats to all the guys that are making really good gains off these latest moves in the market where we're seeing some sort of volatility. The TIA Pro membership is where we discuss our buying and our selling and how we're managing our portfolios throughout each phase of the cycle. There's a link to that in the video description. But let's continue on with the overbalance in time and price on Bitcoin as it's getting extremely close to that point. Now, in price, the white arrow is the price range of the latest move or the the move that we're measuring against now from the Feb low to the May high. Basically, that gives us an idea of how far the market moved in price and how long it took to get there. Now, as we explained during this period, that one there, that the market was overbalancing all of the prior moves, which suggested that the low wasn't far off. I never said I knew exactly where the low was. And the range that was that I was covering on the channel was between 57 and 43. You guys remember that was the the zone that we're watching based off the fib extension. Now it touched at 57 and we knew from that point that things were getting a little bit uh well they were changing from the bear to the bull. The transition began and that's where we talked about it through that exact region because of our signals the three bar signal. We saw three bars up from a significant low that was higher highs higher lows on a daily and on a weekly which suggested that the longerterm time frames looked like they wanted to begin that transition from the bear to the bull. And there was just not too much selling action occurring at that low. Meanwhile, Micro Strategy and there was a lot of bad news for Bitcoin at that time, but Bitcoin just could not find a way further down, which in um in essence suggests bit more of a bullish sign, bad news, market doesn't go down. That equation basically means could be very good news. And so far, uh that's basically what's occurred from that point. We got the breakouts and that began to add fuel to the fire. So, my strategy, my style is never trying to call the low. I'm not trying to call the top. I'm just trying to layer on the indicators that suggest you're getting that transition and then put you in a position to take the riskreward trade. Lower risk, higher reward, and you begin to see more of those signs play out. That's what this overbalance in time and price is now. So the time frame that we're watching is basically less than a month away now, first week of October. And the price needs to be above the highest price in this zone, but ultimately above 83. That was the top that we saw here. So basically clean as day 83 first week of October or if this market goes higher then it's got to be above whatever high point that is after that day. So that's the first thing overbalance in time of price. We saw it on the way down as well. we saw overbalances to the downside which said yeah you're getting more selling action than buying action but if you guys remember back here in November and then when the market rallied into January a lot of people got on the bandwagon that 80k was the low and that you're missing out when the market rallied to $98,000 and of course they couldn't have been more wrong at that exact time and the market collapsed. So with um the price cycles, you can see how well it turns out and it also lines up with the moving averages 50% and so on. So I'll show you those in just a sec. But the overbalance from last cycle because the signals continue to play out is watching here we go the low to the top. Really simple. We got to find the largest range and then connect that to the low and that was at November 21st of November. And you can see the top price was about $31,000. Just over to the side here. And it had to be above that level by late January, early Feb. And it did it. It touched it in midappril. And from that point, so that's your overbalance. The market had now overbalanced the largest move to the upside. Bare market biggest rally. So I'm pointing at them now on the screen. That was the biggest rally. And can the market overbalance the biggest rally? Yes, in time. And price. it got higher and for a longer period of time basically more and more and more and more buyers stacking in. Meanwhile, everyone in the sentiment was saying that this was going to be a major recession in 2023. If you weren't around in the markets then it was everywhere. Elon Musk was talking about a recession that was going to last to 2024. What do they know? They know about business. They know about technology. They know about how to build their businesses. the best of anyone in the world when it comes to investing and cycles. It's not their forte and we've seen it time and time again. Anyway, moving on from that because I know it triggers people for some reason. Uh you can see from that point the market corrects. It's not a straight line. That's okay. And these periods were quite fearful. So that brings up our fear and greed chart. So this is the first correction. Uh the market then rallied into 31 again. basically a little double top, pullback, more fear, and then finally it started to break out in October of 2023, breaking through more of the moving averages, the highs, and so on. But the big next signal that I want to look at is um the fear and greed index after we get that overbalance in time and price. So, if we're on that journey now, if we're getting there, probably about a month away or so, you know, I like to talk about these things before the event, which obviously increases the probability that they're not going to play out, but we've got to have some forward planning. Otherwise, what are you doing? If you can't plan for something, then then you're just sort of shooting blind. We're watching the fear and greed index. We've hit greed almost every occasion, at least the ones that I've, you know, I've tracked this through the whole history of the fear and greed over the last seven, eight years. When it hits this period of greed, we see at least a pullback to fear. And if it gets to extreme greed, there is almost always a pullback to extreme fear. And it happens in the the bare markets as well. All right. So, we had a bounce to extreme greed. This is back in 2019. So, the bare market 2018, the next cycle from 2019 into 2021, big move higher. And this is a little reminiscent of what's happening at the moment. But speaking of the move into extreme greed, which we're now just in greed, and it always pulls back into at least fear. We want to see the bigger pullbacks into uh extreme fear because that will give us a really nice reset on a pullback, which then could lead to higher prices because if things get too overheated, you need to see it pull back otherwise they're pretty well shortlived. So extreme greed. All we're looking for here is market hits extreme greed, you get a pullback that was into pretty low fear. Another extreme greed and then pullbacks into extreme fear. Now note that the price when the market pulls back on extreme fear, the price comes back to some of the previous reaccumulation areas. That is a reaccumulation. That is a reaccumulation. And then it takes off. You can you can see that that is reaccumulation because the market took off after that point. So it's nice to see that there is the potential to pick up a Bitcoin stack. There's often that question of, you know, if I missed out, can I get back in? Yes, there are opportunities to get back in. The problem with getting back in is the patience. And I'm not saying I'm I'm the greatest at it. You know, it's it's you're forever learning this. and in and the traders that have been around 30 40 years will say the same thing. The patience is very very difficult to overcome. So don't be too concerned if it if it feels like it's just going to be an extremely tough task. What I mean by patience is if you've missed these moves and imagine missing it in April um back in 2019 which I think is you know the market's looking similar to how that action occurred in April and then into May right this consolidation between the 200 day and the 50we moving average and it didn't really pull back and it didn't get anyone that chance to get back in and then it bloody takes off without you. Then you've got this pullback over 3 to six months. it takes to come back into those reaccumulation zones. So takes off. This is the pattern of what happens to the market. It takes off. Extreme greed occurs. Everyone that missed out in, let me move that over so you can see. Everyone that missed out in the reaccumulation zones here and here, they all start to buy late because you think I'm going to miss out. And then over the course of 3 to six months in the case from the top, you know, that's June and it came all the way back down into December. Six months. That is some decent patience. And most do not possess that. And some of us do possess it, but it's so hard to replicate that year on year on year on year. And that's basically the reason why you have a trading plan is so that you can fall back on something mechanical that doesn't require you to worry about um each of the daily moves because you got this that pumps up higher. You've got this that pumps up higher and you think you've missed out and then there's more and more of the breakdowns that get you to this final low. So extreme greed pulls back to extreme fear. Greed pulls back to fear and often extreme fear. greed pulls back to fear and extreme fear. So that's what we're looking at. If we get these next breakouts confirming the overbalance in time and price, most likely confirming the cycle low in the next phase is about patience. If this is going to be a sustained bull market for years to come, if it is not a sustained bull market for years to come, you'll see the market bounce and then come back. That is an unsustainable move, basically takes off and dies. The reason for that is that there is no base being formed on the way up. There is not enough of a structure to build a nice huge move to the upside. 20 2017 16 you got a lot of little bases here that are forming over time. Forming forming higher pullback higher pullback higher pullback higher pullback. And once that comes undone, we'll turn it back to a linear chart. When that be that that comes undone, then you get the blowoff top moves and the huge corrections in a very short period of time. So, we've got overbalance in time of price that we're waiting on. Very very close to that. Now, we saw it happen in 2022 and it happens across all markets. You get this overbalance in time and price whether it's from a bear to a bull or bull to a bear as well. uh we saw it in 2019 and we measure the largest bounces in time and price from the prior cycle uh from the bare market. So that is a huge move from the low it took right up until the breakout of that top there and uh it took a lot longer in time. Right? So you still got overbalance in time of price and from there boom it finishes and pulls back. Overbalance of time of price leads to a peak you like it did here. Pull back, pull back, consolidation, next move. Okay, how about the moving averages for Bitcoin now? Well, we've had the breakout at the 200 day uh 200 day moving average. That was around that period that we saw an explosive move out of it. And that break of the 200 day with force with volume is what added to the transition story. the transition story from bear to a bull. The volume also picked up as we've talked about, but there's still a little bit of a concern when it comes to the exchange volume. We haven't seen enough of that come through. We've big move higher to $48 billion. Took out the top there from June. Nice. 47 billion. Nice big pullback, which is pretty typical. You can see that happens basically every single cycle. Nice move higher. Uh now it's not going to show up, but anyway, you get the idea. right through here, pull back and then it starts its move. That also required a lot of patience through 2023 because the majority of the move happened in late 2023. So that's for the spot exchanges. You take a look at the futures markets, similar sort of thing. Take a look at the ETF markets uh when that started to come through in 2024. We've seen a very similar thing where that volume needs to pick up and as it breaks out of resistance levels, that's when the volume needs to come through. So you're like knocking down a major wall. uh you need to do it on force. Just tapping it with a hammer is not going to work. So it's the same sort of analogies here for cryptocurrencies. Okay. So the next piece is the 50we moving average. And as I said, this is kind of similar to what happened in 2023. You got this rally past the 200 day on volume. Very nice. Then you have a move towards the 50 week. Great. Couple of days closes above there. testing a lot of it pulled back and the pullback happened on a very significant news event. Silicon Valley banking collapse. Regional banks were collapsing all over the place. Every man in their dog thought this was the start of a recession for 2023 as I've covered before and it didn't happen and Bitcoin took off from that point. So, that was another really, really strong signal that the bull market was on. Just needed a lot of patience. I know I keep coming back to that, but I can't stress it enough because that was March. This was September and then it finally broke out in October. So again, over 6 months. I've talked about that 6 months before like what happened in 2019 into 2020. It's a six I mean in the past it's been a six-month process and I'm very willing to wait for that because that means we should get some nice big moves to the upside without the tank getting filled up of volume like we've seen here. you know, we need to see more and more money come back, more and more interest coming back. If that tank doesn't get filled up, we may just shoot off, take off the um because the market is so illquid, it can take off quick, but if things take off quick, they also dump relatively quickly as well. And we want to see this sustained growth. Um, so that's a look at the moving averages and how things start to line up when the trends and the cycle changes from that bear to a bull. testing pullbacks and then breakouts. 2019 tests of the 50WE pullback didn't make it to the 200 day, but there was still a pullback here. More consolidation and then the breakout there. All right. Cycle before that break of the 200 day, test of the 50, pull back around to the 200 day. In this case, it went slightly beneath it and consolidated under it. uh then came back through and started to break through both of the moving averages, right? Also a break of the major swing tops and it happens on volume. So let's take a look at it with the uh the monthly chart here. All right, the monthly swing chart has been one of those key indicators. This is using your GAN swing pro. The break of a monthly swing top generally suggests that we're also on board with the next cycle. So the yellow line here, let's turn off the rest of these and even take away the candles on the bar so you can see the pattern for itself. This is a change in trend, right? Lower highs, lower highs, lower highs. And then you begin to see a break of those highs. You can draw the line straight through that. There is the break. That tells us we're probably in the midst of that next move happening, that major change in trend. It takes months. So again back to the patient story that was a long patience period uh you got back in 2019 all-time high lower highs in the bare market then the breakout occurred above that high so that's changing in trend more patience required and so on then you've got 2014 2015 low and then the breakout in late 2015 and 2016 cycle top lower high lower high lower high break And then the things start to get going late in 2015. So a break of those highs putting in higher lows. So a change in trend occurring. So that's a really interesting and important one coming up because we're so close to that figure now at around 83,000. We get any sort of moves here and a pullback. That's probably going to be a good sign that we're coming into a higher low. So bit by bit by bit. just depends on which one you want to add to your uh portfolio or when you want to add to your portfolio. Do you want to do it earlier on with a higher chance of being incorrect or do you want to do it later on with a lower chance of being incorrect but just less reward? The whole game is always about risk and reward. It's not about picking the bottom tick and selling the top tick. That is retail and a beginner's game. you keep trying to play that, you'll never make it longterm because well essentially like the prosay, it's all about risk and reward. It's not about taking the bottom dollar and the top. The money in your bank account doesn't care where it comes from. It just cares that it's going up. Otherwise, you'd go into negative, of course. So, Bitcoin not looking too bad. Even if we get the pullbacks, we want to see a break above 83,000 and for it to be there just after uh early early October. Now, the stock markets are also holding up okay here. We did a live stream with our members on Wednesday morning. So, for members, if you haven't seen that, you can go watch that replay and look at what we discussed there. This was Tuesday's bar on the stock market. The reason I bring this up is because what we were saying on um for that particular day and remember our stream was early on here because this is the US chart is that this to me looked like it was stopping volume and it looked like it wanted to rebound from that point on the short term. You get these typical patterns that play out that dump quite quickly into the low. You can see the volume pick up. Now, that doesn't mean it's the end, but we were looking for signs that this was going to be a reversal. All right? And that has reversed at the moment. But now, what the S&P needs is a lot of closes above 7,800 points to get the show moving from um from this stage. Otherwise, I think we're in for more of a churn here and possibly testing, I don't know, 76ish again, which is a 50% level. Reason being is that we've seen a couple of signals from the highs, which is our slowdown signal. Three bars from the top. So all-time high. Don't worry about this one. It's inside one, two, three signals there off the top. And we have it off the weekly chart as well. Provided today where yes, it's Friday. Doesn't close above the prior top. So so far you've got one down, two down, three down, lower lows, lower highs. Forget the colors. Don't worry, we're not in um we're not in kindergarten. We don't need to worry about the colors for now. It's just a lower highs, lower lows, provided today doesn't close above 7783. All right. So, we can come back to that. Otherwise, I think this is still part of more of a churn kind of like these tops that we've seen through 2025 and 2024, early 2025, where it just takes a fair bit of time for the market to digest the move. you get a correction and then things come away again. Um, so that could be part of this next stage for Bitcoin that may head sideways. We may get that little bit of a move higher and then the pullback. I think there is still that pullback coming for Bitcoin because many of the signals say that we're getting a little bit overbought, but the pullback I think is going to be one of those big keys. Like you could see for each of the prior um starts of the previous bull markets, the pullbacks, yeah, they were 20%. But they were higher lows. Okay, all higher lows. All happened on fear. Let's go back to the daily chart uh last cycle. Here it is. They all happened on fear here. Fear. More fear. and they were basically buying opportunities for the long term provided it's a longer accumulation. We really want to see nice healthy accumulations. So you see 20 2019 they actually came back to extreme fear because as we've covered things got out of hand just basically like a rubber band going extreme greed extreme fear extreme greed fear and so on until things plateau and then things head up again. Okay so it's all pretty well you know working the way it should. Um, yeah, S&P 500 holding out okay here. NASDAQ, similar sort of thing, it hasn't broken below 50% levels. So, even though there's been quite a bit of fear and negativity in the stock market with AI busts and semiconductors and capex going crazy, you know, the the big hyperscalers spending too much money on AI plays and and whatnot. The market is is not necessarily seeing things that way in terms of doom and gloom. As we've said, you guessed it, I had to fit it in there. The 18-year cycle, the top of the US real estate and economic cycle is upon us. But as I said, for years, the stock market almost always goes higher after this point, top around 2026. I think we're still going to go into late 26, 2027. I've got a date somewhere around mid 2027 to see how this stock market is performing at that stage. And maybe we see a top around that point. All right. So yeah, I'm still bullish longterm if you consider that longterm 12 months or so, six to 12 months bullish on the stock market even though I'm seeing a peak forming for the real estate cycle. All right, the last few things that we've seen over u the last few days since the last uh update is the dollar. It's still just barely holding on to 98. It hasn't really gone anywhere. So that could be helping Bitcoin's price at the moment. If we see a bit of a fall here, then Bitcoin could shoot higher. If we don't, then uh I think this could be that slowdown process for the peak of Bitcoin. Gold have covered as well. We had the big pump up, rejected at 50%, the pullback. Nothing really too crazy here for for gold and silver as well. Looks like there could be a decent play here coming up for oil. So, I would say keep that one on your radars provided it holds above 87 and breaks these tops around 93. could be a decent play there. And in regards to uh Bitcoin and the liquidity, we've been tracking the stable coins. All right. So, bit um USDT and USDC combined, they've had the pullback very similar to last cycle. Let's take a few of these lines off. So, that was the pullback as the bare market for Bitcoin was ending. You got the peak, lower highs, bit of a consolidation range here before the breakdown began. So, we're seeing the peak this time was slightly higher high, but it very quickly came back into the zone, which showed some weakness and then we've had the breakdown. So, ultimately, if this breaks a little lower and starts to rally, that would probably also line up with Bitcoin and the cycle low being in. But, I think all of these pieces will come together at a very similar time in the second half of 2026. You know, obviously we're getting closer now to uh what's that? Quarter 4, which could put in a significant higher low. So, that's looking pretty decent for stable coins. Um the USDT on its own, very similar playbook again, hit those tops. Look at that breakdown. Also broke down here, tested, broke down again, rally to lower high. I dare say if this is going to be that low for Bitcoin, if the low is already in and we get these pullbacks, watch on the stable coin chart for lower highs getting rejected and that could be a good time that lines up with Bitcoin's higher low. All right, so that could be another good opportunity for your DCAing into Bitcoin. ETH still sitting around 2500 bucks like it has done over the last two weeks. No breakouts yet. Not looking too bad. Soul, similar thing as well around 104. Remember, we're watching for a break of um 105. So, that has occurred as well. And XRP around a$145. So, the time frame for XRP also came through pretty damn well with the 12 months down from the top. There's July. Here is our low in August. 12 to 13 months. Remember, we've been tracking that forever, for over 12 months now. Um, crazy how it's continued to play out again on XRP. And I've got to give a shout out to Zcash. New all-time high for Zcash. Good thing to see that privacy coins are getting their getting their run on. Um I think it's pretty much one of the major use cases for cryptocurrencies, although obviously governments don't like it and we shouldn't talk too much about that if they're listening. But good to see that privacy coins are doing what they need to do and uh you know there's some some strength there for them. the projects continue on because as we know basically the majority of other coins are not great. So yeah, Zcash XMR looking looking nice there. All right guys, so that's Bitcoin. Like and subscribe. Remember the Substack, there's a link in the top of the video description. If you've never used Substack, I highly suggest checking out. What we've done is take all of these videos and put them through AI and it basically pumps out everything I've talked about in a summary form with all of the the details data and you can take that and um you know use it for your trading and investing or just learning and you can see how things have continued to play out. So, Substack, there's a link in the top of the video description. And if you want to learn how to put this together for a trading plan, check out TIA Pro. There's a link in the top of the video description. We'll be going live with our members, discussing our portfolios and our trades early next week, as we do every single week. All right, guys. Have a fantastic weekend. I'll see you back in the next one. Take care and peace