How to Read a Late-Cycle Rally | Shorting Opportunity in CVS?

Jump over to CVS last one. I think this is a really interesting chart to be watching very, very closely. CVS has a dominant drop due 10 5 to 12 7. This is a 32 bar. It's been clear for years. Really nice chart. Remember late in the cycle, what happens typically late in the cycle is you see some selling, right? You're seeing that here. Oops, getting into a box here. Here. Here, right? Look at the the the late rallies. You see that? I don't know. I just want to highlight this. This is This is important. Look at the late rally. Look at the angle of the RS. Down here. Down here. Pretty flat here. Would not have done anything there, but did see a final move down. The late rallies are so interesting. A little uptick there in the with the RS firm down. This is really classic action right there. The uptick here, RS firm down. Look at what happened. Test of lows. Then got hit. Here. Did have a little swing back up in that RS, so not an ideal setup. But when you see the RS firm down with a bounce. Like again, similar to that, but this is I think going to set up something similar to uh you know, back here. Not saying it has to get flushed as you know, that much because the overall cycle is now more positive than it than it was back here, right? This is clearly far more bearish back there than we are right now, but RS is down. You're getting a pop. The highest probability, the reason we're saying that is is straight up because of the angle of the RS uh right now and the overall consistency of the cycles with lows that have formed very close to when those ideal lows were due, right? Those two inputs is leading me to believe that this rally has a stronger probability of failing on the intermediate term, right? 9928 or so to 101. Really wouldn't look for it to get much through that 101 right now. It really should really should hold below that and then give one final flush down ideally towards around, you know, 9016, somewhere around there, right? One final flush down, right? Um 10.5 to about 12.7. Short term, really interesting, right? Watch that earnings gap down low. That's that low. Was there any real selling below it? No. Look at the size of the bodies below these key levels. Tiny. Tiny with no follow-through. Just imagine what's happening in terms of that overall sentiment. Get them lower, get them lower, get them lower. Short every uptick, short every uptick, short every uptick. Are traders getting paid for doing that? No, they're not. And what end up happening? A little squeeze right? So, every chart tells us an amazing story. We just have to keep our eyes open so and and ears open so we can uh really listen to it, right? So, look at that flush down. That's what caused that, right? They were all wrong. They all got stopped. A little bit higher volume than what we were seeing, too, right? As we were getting the turn. So, that's that that's that's interesting as well. Um So, now as we said earlier, 9942 to 10150 approximately is where I'd be looking for this to fail. That's the high that formed the day after the earnings day. Um so, look for that to fail and start start to roll. Now, the RS is positive, slim ribbons neutral, so we're in a mild rise. Going to be waiting for this one to actually set up back on the short sign. And uh it has not done so yet. So, I want to see this rally a little bit more, stall out, and start to curl. If I can see it start to curl with a clear struc- you know, as usual, structural stop. Structural stops are key. Always keep it in an area that said it should not get through there. The reason I like that 50 is right at the old pivot as well. So, that makes a ton of sense to me. I really want to hit the whole below that. So, I want to try to um to actually time my entry as well as I can, just as that, you know, forms that high, starts to roll versus that 10150-ish area, okay? So, hopefully that was uh a more detailed look at CVS. That next daily trough on this 34-bar is due around 10-2.