Bitcoin has 3 Possible Paths from here

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I was going to do a deep dive today, but to be honest, nothing has really changed and I'm sick of my own voice and I'm sick of repeating myself. I just couldn't face it. It's the first time in something like 1700 videos that I just could not face it today. So, I'm going to take that as a sign that there's really no need to do one. And last night, I was watching another YouTube channel go into some Elliot wave counts, and I thought I would just steal those. Now, obviously, theft is a natural law violation, but if I give the man credit, then it's not actually theft, is it? So, first thing we got to do is give Tom over at Greenstar Trading a shout out. It was this video right here, his most recent one. It's an hour long. It's probably the deepest dive on the Bitcoin technicals you could find on YouTube. I'll be surprised if anyone has got a deeper technical dive on Bitcoin. So, feel free to go and watch this after. Of note here, I have not filled in all of these subdivisions and subwaves in the Elliot wave count. I've just grabbed the main structure. So, if you're interested in how it subdivides and all of the other counts inside of the big accounts, then feel free to go and watch this after as well. And I will say this about Tom. Tom has a very highlevel understanding of TA. Okay? You won't find mistakes in his TA. He's very thorough. He's very well read, very experienced. So if you're seeing some TA from Tom, I assure you it will be correct and to a high standard. So if I turn some stuff on here, I think everyone is familiar with this. And that is essentially that unless we can break above this high right here, then the yellow squiggle still in play, the 4ear cycle low is still dominant. This is nothing more than a lower high and we should be heading lower over the next few months. I've been long stating that this right here, a new higher high is an invalidation. And herein is where for me things start to get interesting based on what I was watching from Tom yesterday because Tom had a few counts right and again I have not filled in the subdivisions. If you want to go and learn that stuff or see how it's done then watch green star after this. But it's funny that his first count that he presents the bearish idea is this right? Essentially we have five down here then we go ABC back and then this would be one two with three four and five to follow. Now the nice thing about this count is it's got an extremely clear invalidation. Wave two cannot come back beyond where wave 1 started from. So any poke above this prior high, okay, and we can just scratch this count off and say it's invalidated. And Bitcoin is extremely close to doing that. Now, the nice thing about this is it doesn't need a weekly close above. It doesn't need multiple confirmations of, you know, a new higher high and a new move to the upside. It doesn't need any of that. Okay? We come back beyond where wave one here starts and that's it. This is invalidated. We can scratch it off. Okay? But it is a pretty clean count. It's one of three very nice paths. Okay? And that's that we come five down, ABC back. This would be one, two, three, four, and five to follow. And realistically, I wonder if I just overlay this. Okay, not really that dissimilar from the four-year cycle being standard, right? And just doing normal and to be expected things. Again, to be super clear, the moment we print a higher high above this high from back here about 82 and change 828 or something like that, then this is invalidated. We can scratch this off, just delete it from here, and that's it. We don't have to worry about this one of three possible paths. The next idea here, okay, is that again we come down in five. We go ABC to here. And now the bottom's in and it's a new bull market. Okay, we've gone one, two, three. We'll have four and five to follow. Then we'll go ABC into a wave two pullback in here. A characteristic of these wave twos is the sentiment is oftent times worse than at the actual lows primarily just because lots of people that miss this move to here FOMO in at the top and then finally they think they're inside of a new bull market and they get punished. If we look at this, this also aligns with what I've been saying as that kind of inverse head and shoulders formation, right? We get something like this form. We buy the first higher low pullback, which is a show of strength, and then it's off to the races. And what's really nice about this is the market's going way higher. It's going way higher. No one's going to care in a year and a half time if this is true. Whether you bought between here or here or anywhere in the middle, no one's going to care because this whole thing will just be this huge one into two. Then we'll go five up into three. You'll get four and then five will come thereafter and we're going to be at silly numbers in no time. So that's if the bottom is in, which is really nice. Again, if you think about what I've been saying with Micro Strategy, I've been saying there's no rush. And that's simply because for all we know, this count is still on the table down to a 4-year low, in which case MSTR will give us a nice entry. And as a worst case scenario, MSTR forms that inverse head and shoulders. We buy the first higher low, manage the risk around an ultra high probability setup, and we get going. So again, I'm not really saying anything different. I'm just kind of showing you that you can arrive at this conclusion using Elliot wave instead of cycles. And so we've had the ultra bearish count, which is just my yellow squiggle firmly remaining in control. There's a new bull market upon us, okay? And it's really just a case of buying this first nasty pullback where we can expect sentiment to be pretty destroyed according to the Elliot wave principle. And then it should be time to get pretty impulsive pretty quickly, okay? And the numbers here I would suggest will be incredibly high. Okay, a lot higher. I mean, even dare I say it, I think we might even start to challenge diminishing returns because from a cycle perspective, if we forced the end of the cycle early, that is indicative of seller exhaustion. This is significantly less draw down than we've seen in prior bare markets. And so, if there's no one left to sell, they weren't going to sell here and they weren't going to sell here, then we're going to need much higher prices to free that up. So, this would be pretty nice. But notice how despite how bullish it is, despite how much FOMO there is out there, despite all the you're sidelined and all this kind of jazz that's going on, okay, there will be a nice big pullback. There will be plenty of fear to come on this pullback and then we will have a high probability low to manage the risk around. Pretty straightforward. Now, obviously saying it and doing it are two different things. When we get here, as I often say, it's easy to say you'll buy the low now. When we get there, there's plenty of reasons why you don't want to do it or why it's going lower or whatever else. But so far, out of these three possible paths, this one is super clear and easy. This is just my yellow squiggle. We've had this idea for months and we've got the cleanest and clearest invalidation just about I don't know 2 or 3k higher. Nice and straightforward. The moment we poke above that, it's over. If the bottom is in and it's a new bull market, okay, then we'll get one final leg higher. We'll get an ABC back. We'll buy the granny out of that and it's off to a brand new bull market to start doing Bitcoin things once again. But what if the mother of all head fakes is coming? Okay, which I wouldn't be surprised. Okay, just because it's Bitcoin, right? This would be an expanded flat correction. Okay, you come down in five again. You go A B C to a new price extreme. Okay. And then we complete this move by going 1 2 3 4 5 down to new lows. So this would essentially be my yellow squiggle again with a deviation to the upside. Pretty much what gold is showing us at the moment, right? I drew my yellow squiggle. We broke out, fake breakout, failed daily cycle. We've rolled over. We're heading lower. So gold has pretty much shown us this. It just needs to continue a second move lower first. Find that low late September and then we're practically caught back up with the gold yellow squiggle. all is right with the world. Again, we buy the granny out of that low and then we should be ready for a new bull market ahead. If anyone's thinking, oh man, it can't be this or this is CO or whatever you're thinking, right? This would be just emulating what gold is currently showing us based on my cycle analysis. Now, I don't know if Elliot wave counts support what gold is doing. I haven't done the Elliot wave on gold. As you know, I'm not even an Elliot wave guy, but in terms of drawing the yellow squiggle, seeing a deviation to the upside only to come back down and catch it up, that is what gold has been doing of late. Okay? And so long as it just moves down a little bit more into late September to find that low, then that's exactly what gold is showing us. So I wouldn't discount this yet. And this would be the hardest thing in the world to trade really if you think about it because we would have this big breakout. We'd have to invalidate several counts. We'd be looking for buying a higher low pullback as a sign of strength and a change in market structure ready for a new bull market only for that daily cycle to left translate and fail head down in three, four and five to find that fouryear cycle low and ultimately catch this yellow squiggle back up. And so the message I wanted to convey today really is that you can see whilst it's exciting, whilst it's nice to try to call a new bull market, whilst there's plenty of people on X saying way higher and loads of people are sideline and whatever else they say, there are still out of these three possible counts two that are extremely bearish. It's also true that until invalidation is hit with a higher high, then this one based on the cycles remains the most probabilistic outcome. I would also argue sentiment matches for this. But even if we do break through here, we still have the possibility of having one of these bearish expanded flat patterns before ultimately catching that yellow squiggle back up. And again, we have just seen gold do this with my yellow squiggle. Okay, it's in the process of doing it. Meanwhile, Tom said something interesting about this bullish count. Okay, and I have made an interesting observation about this bullish count. Whilst this count is legal, it's got odd proportionality, right? We've come down massively in the A, we have the B back, and then C is very short. Again, it's legal. It qualifies as a legitimate count, but it's kind of weird. Now, at the same time as it's kind of weird from an Elliot wave perspective, it's also kind of weird from a cycle perspective. We have to force weekly cycle inversions here. We're still absent of the move above the prior high. Is unusual to bottom for a 4-year cycle with so many people seemingly catching this and taunting people off the lows. The sentiment does not match the cycles. And it's also interesting to me how many people are ready to discount the four-year cycle low forming later this year when there are still potentially somewhere between three and five months before we've elapsed enough time to get into that cycle window. So we're inside it in terms of the tolerance of one weekly cycle either side of the 4-year low. But there's actually many months away between where we are today and or potentially even if we see what we've seen before which is where we go three dailies and then an inversion to give the weekly. Okay, that could put us out sometime into February. So, this would be the 5 month end of the window for the cycle. And this here, end of December, would be the 3monish time frame for that window. But it's interesting to me how many people are ready to declare a bottom, count out the four-year cycle, and completely dismiss how cycle theory works in which we nest smaller order degree cycles inside of larger order degree cycles. Lots of people seem ready to abandon all of that and just say there is no more fouryear cycle or the four-year cycle's broken. and everyone's an idiot for being sidelined or whatever. That to me is very very interesting. Not only would it be weird and unusual from a cycle perspective, not only are many people declaring victory when we are literally 3 to 5 months away from being able to say that there is no 4-year cycle low coming based on the profile of the daily and the weekly cycles. But also, of the three Elliot wave counts, two of the primary ones are bearish. And if we're going to accept the bullish as what's in play here, then we've got this strange proportionality in the ABC on the way down. So still legal but strange. That means a lot of things would have to be strange if the lows are in here. Personally, I don't really like those odds. But again, it doesn't really matter what I think. It doesn't really matter what I like or don't like. What matters here is that we're aware of these situations and we can continue to track these day by day. Ultimately, unless you're super short-term looking to buy here, catch the fifth, then duck out or go short the ABC, all paths really point to the highest probability setup coming later in the year. Whether it's the most bullish count and we buy this higher low pullback here, as I've been saying for the likes of Micro Strategy and a bunch of other assets pertaining to crypto, including Bitcoin itself, or whether we stick with the yellow squiggle, which remains at the moment until invalidation is hit firmly in control. We're still looking at buying much later in the year for an ultra- high probability low to manage risk around. And going back to what I was saying about how readily people are discounting the four-ear cycle low or forcing a bottom here and saying that the four-ear cycle was dead or it was never a thing or whatever it is. Notice they're doing that with many months ahead, right? They are prematurely counting chickens because even if we are to get a breakout here, there is always the probability. There's always a chance that we could come back in five to force that low later in the year. There's also mounting evidence as far as I can tell in the likes of the stock market that are heavily right translating their cycle looking for a sharp correction into year end. Right? You could get this going on takes us to heavily right translation in the stocks, right? And then something occurs. The stocks have to quickly and rapidly reset their four-year low. You would think if we have this big riskoff moment, something occurs here to reset those major four-year cycles. You would therefore get Bitcoin probably suffer too. Set something like this up. And this is the problem with just trying to say the low is in. Everyone's an idiot. They didn't buy it and we're going straight to a new bull market here. The problem with that is there is 3 to 5 months left before we can elapse enough time to surpass the area in which we are most likely to find a high probability low for Bitcoin. Which means we have to keep open to all these silly scenarios here, right? Our lives would actually be much easier if we were to get something like this. The read would be clear. It would be easy to interpret. It would be easy to find the low. It would be easy to manage the risk around. Now, needless to say, markets are seldom easy. But whether you're bullish, whether you bought recently, whether you're sick to death of a bare market or not, everyone really should be cheering for a new low to be set or at least a significant low late this year. Okay? Because that is where probability is massively shifted in our favor. That is where we can draw hard and fast invalidations for the bull market on the chart. And that is where it is safe. Safe is a relative term in markets to acquire a bunch of assets pertaining to Bitcoin, crypto, higher beta assets, stocks, etc. That is the neighborhood in which getting to full exposure becomes probabilistically likely to result in profit. Whereas FOMOing in here, in either case, right, whether we're bullish or bearish, you're likely to get wrecked in the not too distant future. Okay? If it's the bearish count, you bought the top and we're moving to new lows. Okay? If it's the bearish expanded flat, you're going to be jumping up and down with both middle fingers in the air, calling everyone an idiot and a clown and a and sidelined only to have your pants pulled down to new lows, just like gold is doing at the moment, catching up that yellow squiggle of mine. And even if it's a big bull market and you bought here, okay, the likelihood is again, you're going to be jumping and screaming and walking around with that Conor McGregor swag up in here only to very quickly have sentiment soured, possibly even your entire position tested from your most recent entries. And depending on how experienced you are and how good you are with dealing with sentiment as it sours, it's likely that a lot of people will get shaken out of their positions during this pullback because as I said earlier, the wave 2 pullback often elicits sentiment significantly worse than the actual low itself. So, as always on this channel, there's pretty clear if then conditions whether you use this Elliot wave count or just stick to the cycles really makes no odds. But I thought it was interesting how this Elliot wave overlaps with the cycle stuff that we've been doing on this channel. And hopefully, and the main reason I wanted to show you this today is that if you're feeling FOMO, if you are concerned about being sidelined, if you feel underexposed, if you feel like the boat or the train or the plane has left without you, then just know this, okay? There's always another dip to buy. There's always another low to get to. And really, the focus should be on only two things, okay? There's only two things you can control. Number one is keeping your risk managed once that setup comes. And number two, it is waiting for a highquality setup to structure your trades around and manage your risk around. This game is hard enough as it is. If you do not get into the habit of only buying highquality, high probability setups and managing your risk, you're just simply not going to make it. You're already taking something that is incredibly difficult and making it even harder for yourself. So, by all means, as always, you do you. If you want to FOMO in here, if you want to blast it here, if you want to be sailor and just permanent bid every single price level, you're welcome to do so. But hopefully you can see at the moment anything and everything is on the table. There are actually, according to me at least, more probabilistic paths that lead to a higher probability swing later in the year than not. And more importantly than that, if you ask me, based on the cycles and the sentiment, I think this bullish count is actually the least likely here. If sentiment were to get very negative on this wave 2 pullback, then I would be happy to accept we've got this big invest head and shoulders type formation. I would accept that I'm happy to buy this low. Okay. and positions full exposure around this low. But if you ask my opinion, which of course means nothing because as a trader I have strong opinions weekly held, my opinion is simply that a better opportunity will come. And I have been doing this long enough to be able to comfortably sit here and wait for a better opportunity. So if you want to check out Tom's work, then feel free to head over to this right here. I'll run through the TA, the charts, the light positions on Monday just to keep this video self-contained to Bitcoin. So, if you want to come back and see that and take a look at what we've got going on here. Hit that subscribe button, turn the notification bell on and come and see what we're doing on Monday. Of course, if you're a level three member, I will produce a level three members video for you guys. Now, other than that, I hope you found some value here. I hope you enjoyed this episode and I hope you have a fantastic weekend. All the best from me. Take care. Cheers. Bye. Camel finance, he's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian stream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. 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