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Santander reiterates a buy rating with a target price of 88.50, a dividend yield of 13.5%for 2026, with the stock trading at 8.5 times price-to-AFFO.
Contexto extraído por IA Santander reiterates a buy rating with a target price of 88.50, a dividend yield of 13.5% for 2026, with the stock trading at 8.5 times price-to-AFFO.
Transcrição Completa
Today we are going to talk about the most recommended stocks for the month of September, the top dividend stocks, and the stocks generally recommended by brokerages, okay? So, please, leave your like and the hype too, all right? Starting with the list of companies in general, beyond just dividend stocks, we have the most recommended here: Embraer, Itaú, Petrobras, and Vale with seven votes each. Following them, we also have Gerdau and others. Regarding Petrobras, I'll try to speak more quickly because it's a stock I'm always talking about here on the channel, right? It comes with a gain of 62.4%. And part of this rise, you know, is oil, right? Oil is also coming off a nice rally. You can see that over the last 5 years, it had a period of growth last year and then fell, kept dropping, and stayed quite low in 2025. That is why Petrobras and other oil companies became very discounted, even excessively so, and then there was this spike with the new conflict, right? Currently trading at 96, a great price that will lead Petrobras and other oil companies to have very high profits. As you can see, in the last year, the rise in Brent was 46.7%. If it stays at this level, even if it stops rising, it would already be extraordinary for oil companies, right? Look here, we can get a view of the most recent data. At the end of last year, oil was super low, right? There was that recovery early in the year and then the conflict erupted. At the beginning of this year, the first quarter, you already saw better oil prices, but it really reached a very high average in the second quarter . Indeed, the company reported an excellent result. At the end of the quarter, it fell and started the third quarter lower, but it is already recovering. It is at a very high level. The third quarter should be another very strong quarter for the oil companies. As you know, after that recovery from the period of losses that Petrobras went through, right, post-Dilma, after this turnaround, the company is investing more heavily again . It is advancing significantly in the Foz do Amazonas basin. Every week we see some news here. IBAMA has just authorized the drilling of three more wells. It's not just here; the company is investing across the board, right? And since it doesn't want to let debt get out of control, you notice that there is a certain fear of lower dividends at Petrobras, even with oil at good prices. But the truth is that Petrobras is primarily responsible for the dividends that the government receives. It paid 58.7%of the dividends from all the state-owned companies in which the government has a stake. So you can see that the green line is very close, even to the blue one. So the government will not let this dividend here get extremely low. So I came here to our channel members 'website, filtered for Petrobras, and for Petrobras in 2026, fiscal year 2026, I have a forecast of a 10.19%dividend yield and 4.80 per share. This fiscal year dividend ends at the beginning of next year. So what do we still have? An expectation of an increase. So these current dividends of 7.68 should increase. Then that forecast of mine of 10 and something for the dividend yield for the 2026 fiscal year should be even higher if oil remains at these levels. We are seeing that the conflict there is difficult to end; there are always new episodes happening there. So it's a very grounded forecast, which has more room for a positive surprise of dividends greater than 10%. And one of the stocks that is sharing the lead there with Petrobras is Itaú, which has risen 21%in the last 12 months, has a dividend of 7.5%, and without considering dividends, we have Itaú here up 12.53%. And this is, in fact, the rise in Itaú's screen price, right ? And the truth is that this rise is consistent with the gain in Itaú's results. As you know, quarter after quarter, practically, year after year, Itaú has been breaking profit record after profit record. And then there's that market dynamic: stock price follows profit. Look at that, the profit in green doesn't stop rising, and the price in brown also follows this growing profit. And if the P/B ratio, for example, is above its average of 1.84 and is now at 2.12, on the other hand, we also have the company's ROE above its historical average, at 21.50 against an average of 18.26. I know there are people who look at the group's companies and don't find them so interesting. In my case, actually, if you compare it with Itaú, XP is also very good, right? And then you have, let's say, the two best companies in the group. Then you look at the others, which aren't bad companies, but perhaps a person doesn't like having these companies as much, so they prefer to go straight for Itaú. The point is the holding discount, right? A holding discount of 20.7%. In my view, it fits because it is above what could be a holding discount of around 15%at most. And furthermore, we will have tax reform and next year this holding discount should drop by another five or six percentage points, so the holding discount would be even greater, right? Another company that is sharing preferences with Petrobras and Itaú is Vale, which has risen 46.6%in the last 12 months and has a dividend yield of 7.14%. It was at absurdly low prices during that period from 2024 to 2025. And the curious thing—actually, there is nothing curious for those who truly follow the channel here, for those who follow the company, right? is that this rise here was not based on commodity issues. The company, obviously, iron ore may have even helped a little, but the big point was the actual operational work the company has been conducting, which I have been highlighting to you for a long time, especially at this bottom. I used to say, Vale is no longer just iron ore; Vale also, even in iron ore, has very interesting optimization projects. These Vale prices made no sense, and looking back, what happened was that Vale collapsed with iron ore falling, right? And later, iron ore didn't move much from where it was. Folks, even though it's a bit above the lows, at 101.60, it's a price that we knew was even difficult for it to break much lower as well. That was another point I brought up several times to you. And so , Vale at those prices was absurdly low . Does that mean it is expensive now? Not necessarily, especially because it has other growth fronts, such as copper , for example. Look at what copper has been doing. And anyone who has followed the channel from the beginning knows that if I have two favorite minerals, they are copper and gold. So this rise you see in copper, obviously at some point in the future some profit-taking may happen, but it most likely tends to recover because demand remains resilient and supply is hard to increase. I already said this another time when copper threatened to have a drop back there last year. This applies to now. When it has another drop, it will hardly stay at low prices for long , okay? So, copper is a very cool metal for Vale. While nickel, after a big drop, had a recovery, right, and has sought to stay here now at prices that already make it more profitable. This is at great risk, because it is far from those peaks, from that period of euphoria in the past. Well, folks, I talk a lot about Vale here on the channel, so I won't go on too long. It's a company I like a lot, right? But I came here to the channel members' site, filtered for Vale, and I have dividends projected until 2031, and later on it even starts to make bigger leaps in dividends, okay? Stay tuned. For those thinking long-term, you will have good dividends, okay? But at the moment, the dividend is a bit lower, let's say, but it is a damn decent dividend of 7%. And in my dividend forecasts, which are very down-to-earth for Vale, man, it ends up being worth it even at current prices. But it's obvious that you want an extra cushion, right? So I'll leave talking about a ceiling price using the Gordon model for a specific Vale video, right? And to close the list with the top four most recommended, we have Embraer, which is coming off great earnings growth. When we break down the segments by business, we have 32%coming from executive aviation, commercial aviation 28%, support services 26%, and defense and security 14%. It grew its revenue by 23%compared to the same quarter last year. And then we have the EBIT at 356, also rising its margin to 15.9%. Net income went from 158 million to 219, and the net margin reached 9.8%. So it is seeing growth in its results here. Free cash flow went from negative in Q2 of last year to jumping to 401 this year. A big leap. And investments have also remained strong, right? Including a highlight for research, folks, it's a company that could bring some disruptive growth. We'll see that soon. The financial position, even with these investments, underwent deleveraging, with a low debt of 0.2 x, super comfortable. And we have it making constant deliveries of commercial and executive aviation, growing deliveries, and the backlog also growing by 16%, supporting future results here, with more deliveries, in addition to other options it highlights. And we have a front here that could bring additional growth for it in the future, which is the eVTOL, which we can sort of call an expectation of an air taxi. Even though I've studied the company or sector, it's not the same as me commenting on an electric utility company, which I've been following since 2007, to the point where I picked a single company in that sector early on and it soared 900%. It's not common. I even brought a video here to the channel about Vista Energia , right? And it would be a lie if I told you that I master this sector here of Embraer; I don't. I've studied it, but not enough to master it, because nowadays someone invests for 5 years and it seems like they master all sectors of all companies in Brazil, in the world. It's a joke, right? So, I have to admit, I can't tell you the level of this expectation here. I know there is a high expectation from the market. Can I throw in a different take ? Like, for example, Vale itself? Although Embraer has a weak dividend yield of approximately 1%, it brought a 355%rise over the last 5 years. This year, another 16.9%and a P/E of 30.2, which isn't a bad P/E for a growth company, it still has room, especially for some fronts that aren't as accounted for, like the one we just saw regarding the air taxi issue. But that's where the crux of the matter comes in: to what extent can we have a different view from the market? Certainly, anyone with a more complete view of the sector can take a look at Embraer and say it's an absolute bargain, because that might indeed be the case for Embraer if some of its growth issues can be realized as they potentially can. Now again, it has to be within the person's circle of competence. And when I say circle of competence, it means the person really knows that sector inside out. Folks, if you need help building your investment portfolio, whether in diversification or picking stocks, or maybe you want real estate funds, fixed income, or you're also in doubt about what to contribute month by month. I am a CNPI analyst, and I have a ton of experience since 2007 in the stock market. I can help you on your investment journey, okay? So go to the video description, there's a link for you to pre-register for my consulting, call me on WhatsApp and we'll work it all out, okay? And coming now to the most recommended dividend stocks for the month of September, the list is similar to stocks in general, right? Obviously, it doesn't have to pay low dividends, but we have Petrobras, which we've already discussed, as well as Vale and Itaú, which we've also talked about. And also on the list, right behind Petrobras, are Alos and Auren Energia. These are two companies I've recently mentioned here on the channel, so let's just take a look at what the market is saying about them, okay? I'll leave a card up here for the Auren video I made very recently, exclusively about the company , okay? It's very detailed there. We're also going to see what the market says about Copel, okay? Alos has 55 malls in its portfolio, 45 of them owned, so it manages to have control over what to do there, right? BTG points to revenue predictability, and vacancy and delinquency at healthy levels. Projected dividend yield close to 13%. In addition to considering that the market has not yet fully priced in the company's strategic turn toward maximizing shareholder returns, seeking , as you have seen, higher dividends at the company. Santander reiterates a buy rating with a target price of 88.50, a dividend yield of 13.5%for 2026, with the stock trading at 8.5 times price-to-AFFO. And so, all brokerage firms will end up setting the same dividend yield because the company has already stated the dividend it will pay in 2026, right? Auren is one of the favorites in the electric sector among the firms consulted. BTG argues that the expectation of higher energy prices directly benefits the company, given the amount of energy available for sale . It is very exposed to energy prices, as I tell you, right? Which makes it exposed to short-term prices as well, which has occasionally brought it volatility. But again, what should our focus be? Long-term energy prices. Average dividend yield of 10%between 2027 and 2029 with leverage falling to 2.1 times by 2027. Santander projects EBITDA of 32.4 billion in 2026, a 47% increase year-over-year, and sees the possibility for management to further reduce 50%of personnel, material, and third-party service costs in its main subsidiaries. Andbank draws attention to the approval of a 3.7 billion share buyback, which had the program increased here to 7.7 billion, with most of the execution expected for the second quarter. This is a point, folks. Auren's high dividend yields tend to be pressured by share buybacks. I've already explained to you that share buybacks in the medium term have an effect similar to dividends, right? After all, it is taking shares off the market to cancel them, right? This increases the dividend per share over time. So, for those who aren't living off dividends right now, it's a good deal, regardless of whether you hold Auren (Axia) that is being bought back, right? Copel rounds out the ranking of favorites here, right? Itaú removed Bradesco and added Copel. They expect an 8%dividend for the current year, supported by a mix of generation, transmission, and distribution, low leverage, and a prospect of significant distribution in the coming years. COPEL is a very interesting company as well. BTG believes in the progress of commitments made since privatization, highlighting the distributor's results, the win in the capacity reserve auction , and a tariff review more favorable than the market projected. Santander calculates an internal rate of return of 10.4%and points to a new dividend policy as the foundation for a predictable flow of earnings. ALOS is up 30%in the last 12 months with a current dividend yield of 10.86%. And we see there that it will even get a little higher. A very cool company. Auren Energia rose 58.8%in the last 12 months, where besides growing results, it paid strong dividends at the end of last year, did a major stock bonus, and now that bonus is turning into share buybacks, which has left some retail investors dissatisfied. I am perfectly calm with it. Some will say: "Of course , you have the bonus shares, but even if I didn't, it wouldn't be a problem." Because for those who don't remember, the company didn't do the stock bonus out of kindness; they did it to escape Mr. Lula's dividend taxation, right? Copel with a 48.2%rise, a 6.7 dividend that should grow, if it stays a good dividend. It’s a great company, right ? But the problem is, if it starts to go up a lot, then it will end up having a lower dividend yield. The cool point about both Copel and Auren Energia is that these two companies have very long-term contracts. It's so you can stay calm and not have any headaches with it. So that's it, guys. Now I recommend that you watch one of these videos that is here on the screen. A hug and see you in the next one.
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