🚨 CRUZ DOURADA NO BITCOIN! PREPARE-SE PARA MUITA EMOÇÃO

Hello, crypto-maniacs. After a super positive medium-term analysis video for you, we need to return to the short term. And the short term is scary. What do you mean by scary, Guilherme? We just saw the Golden Cross, generally considered to be something very positive. After all, the 50-day moving average is crossing the 200-day moving average. Meaning, that 50-day average, closer to us, is stronger than the long 200-day average, showing market strength and recovery. So, how can this be negative? There must be some error in your analysis, Guilherme. Even well-known platforms like Bitcoin Magazine are celebrating the Golden Cross, saying it previously led to the record, the all-time high of 126,000 for Bitcoin. Look at the crossover here and the price hitting its all-time high . What they don't tell you is this right here. After the Golden Cross, a major price drop occurred, and only then did the price recovery happen. Why ignore this correction? Does this correction happen with every Golden Cross? That is what we will analyze in today's video so you are prepared. I am counting on your like. Leave a like, subscribe to this crazy channel if you haven't yet, because we are entering a Bull Market and things are getting wild , huh? Let's head straight to our daily chart on Quant Fury, a platform where you can buy any market asset with zero fees. The manager has gone crazy, right ? Use the QR code below or the link in the description to join Quant Fury with several benefits that only this wonderful channel gives you. Here is the daily chart, here is the wonderful Quant Fury. And you are seeing the following, the little finger points to the Golden Cross, so awaited and celebrated in all markets. And you notice it is indeed a crossover contrary to the one that started the bear market. See it there? After hitting 126,000, we have a drop and soon after the Death Cross occurs, when the green line, the 50-day average, crosses below the 200-day average. This is very negative, showing the weakening of the market. And notice, the price never returns above the red line. That only happened recently here, towards the end of August, when we finally overcame the resistance of the red 200- day average line. And at this moment, the Golden Cross happens, where the finger is here. Everyone is euphoric about this crossover, but forgetting that it leads to a drop in Bitcoin. Yes , in the short term, the movement is downward and it's not an irrelevant drop; it's a considerable price dip before a rise. I've been saying in several videos that my base case for this moment is a price pullback to test the red line, the 200-day moving average recently broken as support, because the confirmation that usually happens in Bitcoin didn't occur. It’s positioned around 70,000, and the price is currently at 78,500. It already hit 82, right? Now it's at 78,500. In other words, it’s slowly retreating toward the red line. And what I want to show you in this video is why I’m sticking with my base case of a short-term price pullback before the explosion. Well, let's go back to previous cycles to analyze the exact moment of the Golden Cross at the end of bear markets, right ? Marking, therefore, the end of the bear market. So, the last time was here , we are in the previous bear market, see? We are here, look, already entering 2023. Exactly the same movement happens. You'll see that after the price entered the bear market, after the death cross up here, it never recovered the red line. It is recovered at this moment, just like we also recovered it now, right? The price goes up a bit, like we just did, but then, as I'm pointing out here, the blessed Golden Cross happens. Oh, how wonderful . Now we're going to take off. Yeah, right after this crossover, the price undergoes a major correction that brings it where, folks? To test the red line, the 200-day average, as support. Was it just that one time? No, it wasn't. And to prove it, I'll open a longer-term chart to analyze what that impact was. So, we are still on the daily chart here, but now a much longer , more historical daily chart. And the dashed yellow lines indicate the moments of the Golden Cross, OK? Like this one we just talked about in 2023, it's right here, February of '23. And notice that after this crossover, the price pulled back 14.7%. Pay attention to these percentages, because they will be very similar, unless something massive happens macroeconomically that affects this result, like, for example, the pandemic that happened here. We are looking precisely at the moment of the pandemic. So, look how interesting this is, guys. We were coming off a major correction, right, throughout all of 2019 here. And then the Golden Cross happens right here, on this yellow line , in February 2020. And a correction occurs, as always, you see? The correction drops right down to the red line, our 200 average, which is what I’m telling you will happen now. But it doesn't stop here. Why? Because we had the pandemic, and then the markets sank vertically. So, if we add it up from the moment of the Golden Cross to the bottom, it was a 60%correction. Is this normal? No. This is polluted by the pandemic. So, you can't consider it . The drop before the pandemic happened stops at the red line. So, it's a drop similar to the others I've shown so far , okay? It would be a drop of 10, 15% that we're used to, not a 60%drop. That's why you should be careful with this correction. So you ask, want to disregard this? Because the green line went back below the red one. Consider the next Golden Cross that’s right ahead, see? It happens here, when on May 20, 2020, another Golden Cross occurs. And for a change, as you can see, after this crossover, we have a drop of 11.73%. In line with the previous corrections I told you about, but we can go back further, that's no problem. So, we arrived here at the end of the 2018 bear market, right? Here is the bottom, look, December 2018. Then the price starts rising again and finally breaks above the red line, but a Golden Cross happens right after. There’s the yellow dashed line marking this Golden Cross, this crossover. And notice, guys, after this crossover, once again, as you can see on the chart, we have a correction, a 9.76%correction, 10%. Similar to all the others I've shown you so far. The only Golden Cross at a market bottom that doesn't have this 10 to 15%drop is way back in the early days, in the time of the dinosaurs, when the Tyrannosaurus Rex ruled our planet. I am referring to July 2015 here, okay guys? And then the same thing happens. Let’s see that we have the bottom, the recovery, and finally the price breaks the resistance of the red line, the 200 average. And subsequently, what do we have, as you are seeing here, the yellow dashed line, representing the crossing of the lines, right? Golden cross. And following that, as always, a price correction. It dropped 31%. It dropped more here because volatility back in the dinosaur age was much higher than it is today. Bitcoin was extremely volatile, so 31%back then is much less nowadays, right? We saw that all other corrections stayed between 10 %and 15%, which is what I expect at this moment. So, if we come back to our current period, you will see that having an 11.64%drop, which is the average of what we're seeing there, brings us where? Exactly to the red line. Exactly. To test that line which was resistance as support, the 200-day moving average, positioned, as I said, right at 70,000. And that would be my bet for the best buy. This is my base scenario, okay? This correction has always happened after a Golden Cross, but it doesn't last very long. You can see here that I put 22 days, right? Yes , to reach this point. Why did I put about 22, 23 days here? Because if you look at the previous corrections, they also lasted a very short time. Look, the previous one back in 2023, it lasted 32 days, basically a month, right? 24 days in the case of the pandemic and 41 days back in 2015. So, guys, it's short-term. We're talking about a week to a month or so and it's over. From there on, every time it shows a super price increase, a very strong recovery for Bitcoin, the start of a bull market that is confirmed when we break the 50-week average on the weekly chart, which hasn't been broken yet, right? You are seeing the weekly chart here; the green line is the 50- week average, it is positioned here at 79,620. It dropped a little bit, guys. It's easier to break it now, but the price remains below it. We haven't closed any week above this green line, which is what officially separates the bear market. So, for me, we will have a pullback to around the 70k level, which would be more or less here in this region, and then a recovery and then yes, finally the break of the 50-period simple weekly average and the price explosion, entering a bull cycle. And that is why I recommend you already have your account on Quantfury. Because , once it breaks, once the bull cycle is confirmed, and there’s no more doubt in the market, that breakout of the 50-week moving average, folks, is very fast. And you can even get access to assets that act like a leveraged Bitcoin, such as MicroStrategy shares, for example. Look at that, look at that , folks, the result. I bought them on the same day. Remember that AI stock, Bitcoin, and MSTR, which is the MicroStrategy stock. Look at the performance difference between Bitcoin and MicroStrategy. We're talking about double. The result so far for Strategy is double. I bought 1,000 of each. 441 in profit for Strategy, MicroStrategy shares, versus 229 for Bitcoin. Oh, but how do I buy MicroStrategy stock in Brazil, Guilherme? There’s no way. Of course there is. On QuantFury, you don’t even pay a fee to buy; it’s right here, I bought it. As I said, create your account on QuantFury. If you don’t have one, you’re going to need it very soon. So, the link is here , it’s in the description, go there, create your account, because you’ll have access to assets that have fantastic performance during the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if we repeat the 2022 pattern, as you can see there, what could you expect now? This here, look, taking 2022, the continuation of the movement is that. This would bring the price basically to that point there, around $ 70,000, which is this bottom, see? The bottom of that 2022 drop would bring us, as I said, to $ 70,000. Then a mega price rally happens. Look at that, look at the rally that follows, bringing the price up to where? All-time high. But are there factors to trigger this giant volatility in Bitcoin in the coming days? Yes, I said it, it will be 10 days of chaos. That’s the trend, because we have several things happening in the next 10 days that will make Bitcoin extremely volatile. Now on September 10th, therefore the day after tomorrow, we already have the PPI, producer prices to see if there is inflation or not. Depending on how inflation comes in, we know it could put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, and the market doesn't like that, especially risk assets. The following day, September 11th, the CPI is released, consumer inflation, and that can also force the Fed to raise interest rates. Then on September 15th, we have the vote on the Clarity Act, not the final vote, but a vote on whether or not to proceed with the Clarity Act this year. Depending on the outcome, this could really shake up the market, both to the downside and the upside. The next day, September 16th, is the Fed meeting to decide on interest rates. If the Fed raises interest rates, expect a very sharp drop in risk assets. So folks, the whole month is going to be action-packed and volatile. Basically, we have about 10 to 15 very volatile days for the markets, which could justify a Bitcoin price drop to the 70k range, mid-60s, and then a quick price rebound for Bitcoin. So stay tuned, because it tends to be an exciting month. Did you like it? Leave a like. That's all for today. Thank you very much and see you next time. M.