AI Stocks Are Propping Up the Market — Peter Schiff On What To Buy Instead

AI Stocks Are Propping Up the Market — Peter Schiff On What To Buy Instead

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    Contexto da transcrição original
    …rds, you're not avoiding tech altogether. I saw that the top holdings in your emerging markets fund are Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor. So beyond geography. Why are those attractive to you? But the Meg seven aren't. Well you know the the the price to earnings ratios on those stocks are a lot, a lot better. Then on the on the Mac seven stocks and you know, those Mac seven stocks are just, way too popular. I think I mean, I hate to buy wood when everybody is buying. Now, there are a lot of people that are on Taiwan Semiconductor, or Samsung o…

    the price to earnings ratios on those stocks are a lot, a lot better

    Contexto extraído por IA "I saw that the top holdings in your emerging markets fund are Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor. So beyond geography. Why are those attractive to you? But the Meg seven aren't. Well you know the the the price to earnings ratios on those stocks are a lot, a lot better."

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    I think that Bitcoin is going to roll over. I don't think there's a lot of upside. I do think that the bubble is popped. I think the highs are in and I think we're headed to a lot lower with with Bitcoin.

Transcrição Completa
Joining me now is Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management and chairman of Schiff Gold. Peter, great to have you back. Thanks so much for coming. Thank you. Great to be back. So, Peter, you were last here in late April, and you said U.S. stocks were a ticking time bomb. Bitcoin was already broken. The fed would ultimately be forced to cut, and investors should be buying gold. Four months later. Four plus months later. Are you standing by all of those calls or are you rethinking anything? No, I mean, I'm standing by those calls. I mean, despite all the talk of the fed hiking rates, they actually haven't hiked rates. And I still think that they're more likely to cut them. Not not that, they shouldn't hike rates. In fact, they should hike rates by a lot more. Then they're contemplating or at least pretending, but I don't think they're going to do it. I think their strategy is to talk about hiking rates and try to get credit for being tough on inflation, without actually delivering the rate hikes and crushing the economy. The real estate market, the stock market, and, you know, forcing the government into a very difficult position given the enormity of the national debt now over 40 trillion and rising rapidly and over 3 trillion a year of ongoing annual budget deficits to finance higher interest rates are going to create a huge bind for the government. So, you know, I think the markets really haven't priced that in yet. Copper is at a new all time record high today. And I think that's a good leading indicator of where other commodities are going, including gold. Gold is now about 4400. But I think we're headed much higher. We got the 5500 in January, February. I think we're going to go a lot higher than that in 2027. Okay. I want to get into all of that, including your gold price target. But before we do, you mentioned the fed and the interest rate decision we'll get next week. But the market is currently pricing in a 60% chance of a fed rate hike. At that meeting, if you had a vote at the meeting, you'd vote for what? A hike, a cut or a hold? No, no, I would vote for a big hike. I don't know, a couple of hundred basis points at least that aren't. But more significant than that, I would be voting for substantial reductions in the size of the Fed's balance sheet right now. And a commitment, you know, just start sopping up a lot of the excess liquidity that the fed has supplied into the market, particularly since Covid, but even before Covid. So, there's a lot of work to do to clean up the mess that the fed created. Unfortunately, they're not going to do that. But I do know that the rate hike probabilities had gotten up to 60% or September. And was it the jobs numbers that we got on Friday that did that? You know, we've been seeing them bounce around because I saw them at 68% even before the jobs number. Right now it looks like around 60.4%, according to the CME fed watch tool. So, certainly quite a bit different than, you know, just a few weeks ago. So you you would hike if you had a vote. You think the fed will ultimately do what though next week? Well, I still think they won't hike. I don't know what they gain by hiking 25 basis points because it's too little, too late to do anything about inflation, but it's going to create bigger problems because, you know, now the market's going to start pricing in the next hike. So I don't think they get out of jail with a rate hike. But if they're gonna hike rates at all before the election, this is the time to do it. You know, this is their shot. Because that then, you know, they're not going to be able to do it. As we get even closer. So either they do it now or they're not going to do it until maybe December. But so, you know, we'll see because, you know, the economy could be weaker. The labor market, we by then we may find out that the jobs numbers that were reported as a beat on Friday, they may be revised down to a miss by by December. If the fed does hike next week, would that change your bullish view on gold at all? No, because it doesn't matter if the fed hikes by 25 basis points. That's immaterial. Inflation is moving up so much more than that. All of these rate hikes are just nominal. They're meaningless to gold. Gold is concerned with real interest rates. And as long as inflation is accelerating faster than the fed is hiking, real interest rates are falling. And that is what's happening. And the problem is the fed does not have the political courage to raise rates high enough to actually be bearish for gold. It's because the government couldn't handle it. We could barely handle the rates where they are now. You know, the government is already spending like 1.2 trillion a year, probably more by now on interest on the debt. And even if rates just stay where they are, forget about hikes. By the time Trump leaves office, we'll be spending more than 2 trillion a year in interest on the national debt. If the fed were to bring interest rates to a level that I think would be necessary to really get the inflation genie back in the bottle, you could be looking at 4 or 5 trillion a year in interest expenses. I mean, 5 trillion a year. That's pretty much all the government's tax revenue. I mean, how can the fed put the government in a position where it needs all of its tax revenue just to pay the interest on the national debt, and there's nothing left over for anything else? So the fed is never going to have a tight monetary policy. It's always going to be easy. The question is how easy? And so the monetary policy is just always going to be bullish for gold. And that's why gold, which started this century or this millennium, you know, 1999 2000 timeframe. Gold was under $300 an ounce and now it's over 4400. This is not an accident that the gold has performed. This well is because the fed has been to lose the entire time, and it's it's put itself in a box where it can never have tight money. And so, you know, goes, well, we got one way to go. That doesn't mean it goes up in a straight line. It doesn't mean it can't have pullbacks. It will. But the direction is going to be higher. And the trajectory of the increase is going to accelerate over time. How much higher Peter you mentioned substantially higher in 2027. Do you have a price target. Well I don't really have a target because, you know, there's no ceiling on how high the price of gold could rise because there's no floor beneath the dollar. The dollar can keep falling as it has for, you know, ever since the Federal Reserve was created, the dollar has been losing value. In fact, when the Federal Reserve was established, the price of gold was $20 an ounce, and now it's 4400. Gold has not changed. An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold. What's changed is the value of the money the fed prints. You used to need just 20 Federal Reserve notes to buy an ounce of gold. Now you need 4400. That's a 200 x increase in the price of gold. But it's really, you know, 99% decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. That's really what's going on. But if the price of gold can go from 20 to 4000, it can go from 4000 to 800,000. That's the same mathematics. It's just a question of how long it takes to get there. I mean, I think the trajectory of the decline is going to accelerate because, you know, the price of gold has been rising more rapidly recently, which indicates the dollar is losing value more rapidly. And that's a function of our debt bomb. We have over 4000 in the national debt which is exploding. It's going to go from 4000, 40,000, 40 trillion, excuse me, 40 trillion national debt. We're going to go from 40 trillion to 50 trillion, a lot faster than we went from 30 to 40 trillion. And we made that move pretty quickly. But they're going to start racking up faster and faster and faster, and that's going to put even more pressure down on the dollar and upward pressure on gold. So 4400 for the everyday retail investor is a buying opportunity here. Yes. Especially since we traded over 5600 I think in January February. So you're still buying a pretty decent pullback from the record high. So it gives you a good entry point. I think that the support is around 4000. So the downside risk realistically in my mind is only about 10%. If you buy gold here that's not a lot considering that it could double or triple or a lot more over time. So I think that we're a lot closer to the new floor for the price of gold than we are to the ceiling, which, again, doesn't even exist. What would make you less bullish on gold? Is there a market or an economic event that would impact your bullishness? Would it be higher real rates or a stronger dollar? What is it that would shake your bullishness? Well. The government would have to do the right thing. And I assign almost a zero probability to that. But if the government actually slashed government spending across the board such that we actually significantly reduced or eliminated the annual budget deficit, so the government actually spent what it collected in taxes. So that over time the debt could actually come down instead of continuing to explode. And if the Federal Reserve allowed interest rates to rise much higher than just a few 25 basis point hikes, and if the fed really, you know, shrank its balance sheet in a very significant way, we had tight money if we did all that. And of course, in that environment you'd see real estate prices crashing, stock prices crashing, a significant and protracted recession with a big increase in unemployment. If all this stuff happened, yes, I think gold will go down to, but I don't expect any of that to happen, which is why I keep I keep telling people the Bible, you know, there's there was it old saying that the US government will do the, the right thing eventually after it exhausts all the possibilities, all the other possibilities. And what that means is we are not going to prevent a currency crisis or a sovereign debt crisis. We're going to keep pursuing these reckless policies until we have no choice. And by then, the price of gold is going to be substantially higher. You know, that's why that former secretary of the Treasury, Hank Paulson, recently was in the news because you said the US needed an emergency break the glass plan to deal with a sovereign debt crisis when, you know, foreigners in particular, decide they no longer want to buy treasuries and they don't want to hold treasuries. He didn't say we need to come up with a plan now to prevent that from happening. We need to, make sure to become fiscally responsible before we have a crisis. He basically said a crisis is inevitable because we're never going to do the right thing. So we just have to have a plan when it hits the fan. So, you know, it's going to hit the fan. The only question is how much longer isn't going to take. Let's shift from gold to stocks, because gold technically is working up 2% year to date, but the S&P 500 is up 12% year to date. I will say the one year chart for gold still looks better, but if U.S. stocks still are a ticking time bomb, as you said last time, you were on what's taking so long for them to detonate? Yeah, I think the U.S. stock market has been held up by I and, all of the, CapEx and the expectations of, you know, I windfall profits, I think, are keeping a bid in, in the U.S. stock market. And I think the U.S. stock market is being disproportionately led by the I. Related companies. And I think if you back them out, then the rest of the market is not doing well. And so that's why you really can't just look at these a cap weighted indexes that are so disproportionately impacted, you know, by these hyperscalers and other, tech companies that are directly benefiting from the I spend, how much longer that's going to go, as is anybody's guess. But the market is very expensive and less, the most optimistic, assumptions about, I, end up being true. There are many comments, though, in the comment section. In terms of anyone that comes on that is bearish on the US stock market, we see comments saying, okay, but if we listened to those bearish warnings about U.S. stocks, we'd miss out on enormous gains. So what do you say to someone sitting in an S&P 500 fund right now that has made them a lot of money? Would you tell them to sell it today? Well, you have to go back and look at how I have expressed my bearish view from the perspective of an investment strategy over the last 25 years. I have not recommended that people stay in cash. I have not recommended that they short the S&P. I have not recommended, that, they buy U.S. bonds or treasuries. I've said that I'm bearish on stocks. And so you can buy gold instead of buying stocks. Now had you done that you'd be better off. The stock market is up in terms of U.S. dollars over the past 25 years, but it is down in terms of gold. So people who heard me in 1999, 2000, 2001 be bearish on stocks if they sold all of their stocks and put all the money into gold, they have more money today than the people who, you know, ignored me and just run out the whole thing. Now, of course, I also didn't recommend just owning gold. That was not my strategy. I said U.S. stocks are overpriced. I expect them to fall in real terms. I never really thought that they would go down in nominal terms, because I've always believed there would be a lot of inflation. And so when you have an inflationary time period, it's difficult for anything to go down because the money is going down fast. So even if you stay the same and the money is losing value, that's like going down. But I've been telling people to buy foreign stocks instead of U.S. stocks. And in particular, certain types of stocks value, in different countries. And that's been a mixed bag. So from 2000 to 2011 time frame, you did much better in foreign stocks than you did in U.S. stocks. Not even close. However, from around 2011 to about 2024, you did much better in U.S. stocks. You still made money in foreign stocks, just not nearly as much as people made in U.S. stocks. But starting last year, foreign stocks are smoking U.S. stocks again. And so I think we're going to be in another extended period of time where you get outperformance. I mean, my main, strategy last year, forget about gold because gold stocks, you know, killed the U.S. stock market last year. Gold stocks were up like 140% on average. And the S&P was up a fraction of that. But even my foreign dividend payers portfolio, dividend paying foreign stocks were up better than 60% last year. And that was the biggest year of outperformance, you know, really, since going back, to the bursting of the.com bubble. In fact, I think it was bigger than any of those early years. So people who have taken my advice over the long run have done fine. You know, now, you know, a lot of times it depends on when people start listening to me. I mean, there are people who started listening to me in 2010, 2011 and stopped and then, you know, lost money because they we had a few bad years and they got out. But, that's the case with people that, you know, that were in the U.S. market. You could have bought the U.S. market at a bad time, and had significant losses. And if you threw in the towel, you know, you lost. It's very difficult sometimes to time the market over any given, you know, you know, several year period, two, three, four years, you could get caught up in a, in a correction. But no, I mean, I've been very clear over the years. Stay out of cash. Stay out of bonds. And in fact, I read just recently that this is the worst ten years for bonds in, like, 100 years. And I have been very, very negative on bonds. Very different than stocks. You know, because stocks I said, look, stocks are going to go up in price because of inflation. But bonds don't go up in price. That's the problem. You get killed with bonds if there's a lot of inflation. So my advice to avoid bonds has been excellent because they've delivered huge losses, especially when you adjust for inflation. But I didn't tell people to avoid stocks. I just said by foreign stocks instead of U.S. stocks. And I've always said by going by silver, by the way, silver has outperformed the stock market too. When I started buying silver in 1999, 2000, it was under $5 an ounce. Now it's close to $70 an ounce. So the returns on precious metals have been great. So, you know, and and I've been pounding the table, and they used to make fun of me when I went on these financial stations back in 2004 and five and six. And I was recommending gold at $400 an ounce or 450. They were laughing at me. They were accusing me of just being a gold salesman and saying it was reckless of me to tell people to buy gold and silver. How was was? Probably the best thing they did was buy gold. So I let's bring it back to tech in I because despite despite the fact that you think that the S&P 500 is disproportionately led by I and your words, you're not avoiding tech altogether. I saw that the top holdings in your emerging markets fund are Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor. So beyond geography. Why are those attractive to you? But the Meg seven aren't. Well you know the the the price to earnings ratios on those stocks are a lot, a lot better. Then on the on the Mac seven stocks and you know, those Mac seven stocks are just, way too popular. I think I mean, I hate to buy wood when everybody is buying. Now, there are a lot of people that are on Taiwan Semiconductor, or Samsung or stocks like that. So, and if you're invested in, you know, the Korean market is kind of hard not to have some exposure, but we're underweight. That's the thing. If you look at, our investments in those stocks, we're underweight. What, what they represent as far as the, the indexes, and so where we're overweight would be in more value oriented, basically material type names. So, in that respect, we, I expressed that concern in general over the tech valuations, not by having zero weighting in the sector, but by having an underweight. But would you own any of them at the right price? Because if you take a look, Tesla is down 18% year to date. Meta is down 6%. Microsoft is only up 1%. Even alphabet is underperforming the S&P 500. It's only up about 8% year to date. So at the right price, would you own them? Well, I don't anything at the right price. The question is what's the right price. Now those stocks that you're mentioning that aren't up a lot in the last year, you got to zoom out and see how much they were up in the few years leading up to that year. They've all have had rather spectacular, gains. And they represent significant, weighting in the S&P 500. So if we do get a bigger stock market selloff, which we could get, I mean, assuming the yields really breakout the ten year guess north of 5%, maybe up to 5.5%, a 30 year top 6%, which these are still low yield even though right now the yields are the highest they've been since 2007. But if we start to get a bigger move up, I would not be surprised to see a meaningful pullback in the stock market. And if we do see a lot of redemptions by the investing public, which really is has never been this exposed to the stock market, if we start to see, a big, withdrawal of funds, then, you know, automatically those tech stocks are going to get sold because that's what that's what happens when you sell the S&P. You've got the index fund. They got to sell the stocks in the in the basket. And they're disproportionately those stocks. So I think there could be a much bigger selloff in those stocks. But you know the fund the money that I manage we have international strategies. All of my strategies are global. So yeah the odds that I'm going to end up putting space in there or something are are pretty low. But I was going to say how big of a dip do we have to see for Peter Schiff to say I'm buying U.S. stocks? Yeah. Look, I own personally like I own some U.S. stocks. You know, I own U.S. oil stocks. I own some U.S. tobacco stocks. I own some agricultural stocks in the U.S. House from copper, you know, so I own some things here. I don't even know. I even on some tech, believe it or not, I you know, I'm not I don't have zero exposure to a U.S. tech, but it's small compared to what, you know, most investors would have. What's the stock that you're. Where I'm. Surprised us the most. Yeah. We're we're I'm really overweight is in the miners. Right. That. Yeah. That's where my portfolio doesn't look anything like your typical portfolio, where they have no exposure to gold and silver mining companies. You know, I have massive exposure in here. And, that was a weight on my my own performance for years and years. And, you know, I'll although I did great with those stocks, you know, from 2000 to 2000, 11, but, it was a tough grind for a decade. But for the last few years, it's been really good. And I expect that to continue. Peter, just quickly, what's a stock that you own that would surprise us the most? I don't know. I mean, you know what? What about your true. What am I best performing stocks is, Delta electronics. So you could you could check that one out entirely. We I. I know that one from the last time you were on. Oh yeah. That's that that one is still, you know, it went up a lot more again. It actually finally had a pullback, but I almost I think I got to 100 times my money at one point that stock. Peter you mentioned energy stocks. Oh I have sorry about that. You mentioned copper. You know copper. Most copper stocks are hitting 52 week highs today. One of the I work I own frequent Mac Moran which is a US company that's that's predominantly copper copper gold. But but I own that. But I think that's. How do you take a look at oil prices today Peter US crude is trading around $92 a barrel. Brant is up at 100. So is higher oil a reason to buy energy stocks here if they already made the move? No, I like I mean I bought a lot more energy stocks myself. You know, the last time we got a big pullback, which I think was earlier in the year, but I still think that they're, they're going higher, I think oil prices, in fact, you know, the the I build out, is going to consume a tremendous amount of energy, in addition to raw materials. And so I think these oil companies are going to make a lot of money, and, you know, a lot of other energy companies. So I, I think Trump is is wrong and his administration is wrong to forecast a big drop in the price of oil, 40 or $50 a barrel. They're saying if, you know, when the the Iran war ends now, I have no idea when this thing is actually going to end. Probably not at anytime, anytime soon, or maybe not even during Trump's term. But I think regardless, I think oil prices are headed higher, not lower, when the war is over. And they could be headed a lot higher. And we're not going to have a strategic petroleum reserve either, because we're going to pretty much exhaust the whole thing. It's going to be empty, before this war ends. So just give me a level. How how high do you think oil prices are going? Well, the high the record high was about $140 a barrel back in 2008. I think we're going higher than that. So I would say at least $200 a barrel, you know, could be more. But if oil can get to, 140 in 2008, I mean, you can certainly get a lot higher than that in, in 2020. Okay. I want to ask you about Bitcoin quickly. And then we'll get to our rapid fire. When you were last on in late April, you said it was already broken because this enormous political and institutional support hadn't translated into a higher price yet. Bitcoin is higher since we last spoke. Not a not a ton higher. Is there any price that would prove you wrong? Or is your Bitcoin thesis independent of price? Right. Yeah. Well, if price was going to prove me wrong, I would have been proven wrong a long time ago because the price is pretty much gone up a lot since I first started speaking critically of Bitcoin. But since my last appearance with you, yes, Bitcoin is maybe slightly higher, but it actually went down a lot before it rebounded recently. Bitcoin's you know, around 79,000, but it got below 60,000 a month ago. And that was below where it was in April of 2021. And this is, you know, late 2026. So you had over five years where the price of Bitcoin was lower, not higher. And I think this, this, this rally was more of a short covering rally. I think, it was sparked I think by maybe the idea that the fed wasn't going to be as aggressive as everybody believed, with respect to rate hikes. A gold had a big rally off the lows. Gold went from 4000 up to like 4500. So bitcoin had a spike. I think there was also some short covering in strategy in stretch. So I think that that temporarily propped up Bitcoin. But I think that Bitcoin is going to roll over. I don't think there's a lot of upside. I do think that the bubble is popped. I think the highs are in I think we're headed to a lot lower with with Bitcoin. And it's never been about price for me. It's it's just been about the fundamentals. I mean and when it's a bubble, you never know how big a bubble can get before it pops. But given everything that has, you know, all the hype that has come into Bitcoin, especially since Trump was elected given all the ETF money, the fact that Bitcoin was not able to go up, I mean, it went up briefly and gone up to 126,000, which was a new high, but it couldn't sustain that. It couldn't even sustain 100,000. The fact that we're back down, you know, here below 79,000, you know, none of the bitcoin perma bulls, had Bitcoin anywhere near this price three years ago. They all were like 200,000, 300,000, 500,000. So these guys were, you know, way off, where they expected the price of bitcoin to be. And I'm sure all of the investors who piled into the Bitcoin ETFs when they came out, they all expected the price of Bitcoin to be a lot higher than it is right now. And you know I think they're going to throw in the towel eventually. I mean most of them are still holding it hoping but I think you know we break we break below 50,000 on Bitcoin, which, you know, I think is coming. I think that could open up, a trap door and you could see a massive wave of liquidation, and a big run of bankruptcies. Two of these Bitcoin treasury companies, there are a lot of companies that are only business model is buying Bitcoin. And I think these companies are going to go out of business. And when they do, what are they going to do with their bitcoin. Well they're going to they're going to sell it. So I think you have a lot of bitcoin selling coming up. I don't I don't see who's going to buy it. I think all the people who would buy Bitcoin already bought it. Yeah. So I think the market you know, really got one way to go and that's down. And of course all the people that own Bitcoin are so confident that it's going to go to the moon. Their confidence hasn't shaken at all despite a five year bear market. And and that's another bearish sign. And people are still, you know, so, so sure of themselves when it comes to to bitcoin. Okay. So let's just wrap things up by making this like investable for the everyday retail investor. If I gave you $10,000 today and you can't put it into your own funds, I know you won't put it into Bitcoin. How much of that 10,000 goes into foreign stocks? U.S. stocks, gold, silver cash. Yeah. Well again you know, a lot of that depends on who's giving me the ten grand. And and me. I'm giving it here. All right. Well it's your ten grand. I you know, again I don't know how much you got total. Is that most of your money? Hardly any of your money. And I don't know where the rest of your money, but just in general, for an allocation, I would say that people should have 10% and maybe even as much as 20%, in physical precious metals. So that'd be gold, silver, stuff like that. And the rest should be invested. And I would overweight equities to bonds. But if you're going to buy bonds, I would say foreign bonds are better. So I may go, you know, 20% and in foreign bonds, short term high quality bonds. And the rest would be in foreign stocks. And but but I would look to overweight value over growth and emerging markets over developed markets right now. I wouldn't have zero exposure to tech. I would have some. But you know, I would be underweight given given the valuation. But zero exposure to U.S. stocks in that portfolio. Personally. Yeah. Personally. Yeah. I, I just think that U.S. stocks are so overpriced that you know, it, you know, there's there's better investments abroad. Okay. I mean, I don't have zero exposure to U.S. stocks myself, but it's relatively small compared to my, my international exposure. Okay. All right. I think this is a great time to pivot to our rapid fire round of this or that. Quick questions, quick answers. No hedging. You've played before. Are you ready? All right. Let's let's play. All right. Here we go Peter. Next five years gold or international stocks. That's a tough one. You know, it depends on the stocks, but I think they're both going higher. But it's it's hard to say. But maybe in general gold, but, I think emerging markets, that particular basket of international stocks may be cold physical. Cash earning 4% or gold at today's price. Of gold for sure there. S&P 500 or cash for the next 12 months. You know probably the S&P over 12 months for the S&P. I would bet it would be higher in the year nominally. If you if you had to own one Bitcoin or a U.S. treasuries. Over what time period? Well, I know probably treasuries. I probably own treasuries over Bitcoin. If you had to buy one Meg seven stock today, which one is it? Oh I don't know. Maybe got maybe Microsoft which I, I don't know any of them right now. Or Amazon maybe Amazon I it's hard to say. Is there a Meg seven name you would avoid most. I don't know I mean I don't really you know, I haven't really looked at them. You know, two particularly I mean what what is Nvidia I guess is in there. Right. I think that one is pretty expensive. Space X or Tesla. Well, they're probably going to end up being the same company. But you know, I, I don't know, I mean. Space maybe. I mean, I think that's a I mean they're both they're both so overpriced. Actually, SpaceX may be more overpriced, than Tesla. So maybe maybe Tesla. I actually, when I think about it. Yeah. But I mean, who the hell those. Yeah probably. For the next. I might, I might go for Tesla. Over the next five years, S&P 500 or Nasdaq. Oh. I probably the S&P. Over the next five years own a home or own gold. Well I mean gold is going to outperform owning a home. But there are other reasons that you might want to buy a home. So it depends on the circumstances. But I think that U.S. real estate prices will be lower five years from now than than they are today. Certainly in terms of gold, they can be significantly lower. But of course, you know, you borrow money to buy a house, you take on a mortgage. So there are a lot of other factors that might determine, you know, whether or not you want to own a house. And, you know, and what the rental market is in your area, and you know, all that, but but but real estate prices are going to go down. There's no question about that in real terms. So, and the same thing is going to happen with stocks. Stocks are going to continue to go down in price in gold a. Bigger risk to investors inflation or recession. Inflation and in fact. Big. If there's a if there's a recession and that's even that's going to be even more inflation. Because what happens is when there's a recession, they create more inflation. That's that's how they stimulate the economy during a recession is by creating inflation. So inflate recession in and of itself raises the inflation risk. So inflation is always the risk. Bigger fed mistake hiking or cutting too soon. Well cutting is a bigger mistake and hiking. But the mistake is they're not going to hike enough even if they do hike. Finish this sentence. The most overvalued asset in the U.S. right now is. Bitcoin. And finally, some true or false questions for you. True or false? American tech is a bubble. True? I said, well, yeah, I think I think tech is is a bubble. Yeah. In general it's in a bubble. True or false. The Meg seven are great companies just at prices I wouldn't pay. That's true. The Fed's next move will be a cut, not a hike. True or false? That's also probably true, but it may be false. They. I'm not saying they can't hide. I just I think that the odds are more likely that that they'll cut or at least do nothing. Sure. False gold will outperform the S&P 500 over the next five years. Who? And finally, true or false? International stocks will outperform U.S. stocks over the next five years. That's also true. All right. Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, chairman of Schiff Gold. We always appreciate you joining us. Thanks so much for playing along and for, sharing your insights as well. I my pleasure. If you enjoyed this interview, check out our street talk with Steven Sosniak. He explains why it may be time to take some risk off the table.

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