*UNEXPECTED* News for The Stock Market

We have some major news and developments that you need to know as soon as possible if you're investing in the stock market. Look at this coffee. That thing is boiling. But neither here or there. There's two major things happening today. First and foremost, software stocks are getting crushed. It's brutal. Why? Because Jensen Wong says the AGI moment is here. Hardware stocks are saying capital influxes today. They're doing quite well. What's going on there? What do you need to know? Number two, the other problem is the obvious one, the war with Iran. It continues. We do have some major new developments in this conflict that you need to know, but the bottom line is it's still happening and we're facing a rate hike in 8 days. But we will get into all of this and other information, other pieces of news that you need to know in today's video. The only thing that I ask you to do in exchange for this information is to hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to push this video out to more people that need to see it and also hit the hype button down below by the like button. With that said, let's begin. So, here's the deal. Chat GPT6 Astra was brought to the marketplace recently and over this weekend it gained a lot of hype and a lot of attention. Jensen Wong, he commented speaking on Astra and said it was trained on 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell GPUs. He goes on to say that AGI has arrived. Congratulations OpenAI team with 400,000 GPUs coming online next. This post alone has 11.5 million views on X. And we can see today if we take a look at the S&P 500 heat map, funny enough, Nvidia is actually down today, down about one and a half percent. But the only areas of green today are Broadcom, AMD, Intel, you know, Oracle, Lamb Research, anything tied to Open AI or that ecosystem is doing well today. So a lot of semiconductors, memory components. Outside of that, you have AI industrials like Eaton and GE Veronova doing well and Caterpillar all AI industrial stocks and energy because of what's happening with oil prices. So what is the AGI moment? Well, nobody can really define what this means. From my understanding, the AGI moment is when AI is smarter than the collective of humanity. That is the AGI moment. The fear is for software that once you hit AGI, AI improves on itself. So you really speed up the advancements of AI, which could make software obsolete. And later on tonight, I'm going to make a whole video about this. What does this mean for software stocks long term? Is this really AGI? Like is hardware where you want to be? We're going to dive into this really in depth because it's going to take about 20 minutes or longer to cover this in depth. But anytime there's advancements with OpenAI or Anthropic, software stocks tend to sell off. But long story short is I don't think this is another SAS apocalypse event. And if we take a look at your indexes across the board, they are red today. The Russell 2000 down about a half of 1%. NASDAQ down a quarter of 1%. S&P down a third of 1%. And look at the Dow there down over 1% today. 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged today, which is actually a positive, sitting at 4.784%. Oil up 1.5% sitting at $92.85 with Brent crude sitting at about $98 per barrel. This comes after Iran's Houthi allies attack multiple Saudi energy facilities. This was a large attack. You can see the smoke from outer space. And this facility was still recovering from the last rounds of strikes. So this is going to restrict supply even more and be a problem for the oil market. In fact, even Russian foreign minister Lavough says that Houthi attacks on civilian sites in Saudi Arabia are unacceptable. So even their ally is like, "Dude, calm down." And this is really all coming together in a very precarious kind of way, assuming we have a Fed rate hike in about 8 days. The stock market is pricing in about a 56.4% 4% chance of a Fed rate hike coming next week and a 43.6% chance of a pause. We do know our major catalyst is coming on Friday. That theoretically will determine whether or not we get a rate hike. But the underlying problems of why the markets are basically bullying the Fed into hiking rates is oil. It is the war with Iran. It is to a lesser extent the trade war with Canada. And these are fundamental problems that are seemingly just not ending. And I do have some bad news. If oil continues to climb, even if we don't get a rate hike this upcoming week, you're still going to be pricing in a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, assuming oil continues to rise, which is what is happening. So, let's get into some of your major developments today outside of what we already mentioned. And yes, this does have to do with the war with Iran. On Sunday, it was reported that the US and Trump sent a new proposal to Iran to end the war. Well, Iran within about a half an hour rejected that and said, "Nope, we want theou to be reinstated." So, that's what you can see here. Iran has rejected Donald Trump's latest peace proposal sent through mediators demanding 300 billion in compensation, the complete lifting of US sanctions, and other conditions before any talks can move forward. Per senior Iranian source to Reuters, Tyrron says Washington's repeated violations and shifting positions have made negotiations impossible for now, insisting that Iran will set the conditions for any future proposal. Iran is also demanding the release of hundred billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets, an end to the US naval blockade, withdrawal of US forces from the entire region, and a comprehensive regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Gaza. And to be honest, I think most of this has already been approved, right, or agreed to. I think the biggest problem is the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza because Israel, they they don't care. they they're they want to finish the job in in those areas. So, if there's likely one thing that does hold this up from ending, it is probably that. Now, I am not a geopolitical expert. I do consider myself a stock market expert since nobody can be an expert in the markets because they are changing and ebbing and flowing every single day, week, hour, month, year, you name it, decade, century. But uh I do know the implications for what this means in the market and it's not great. And I actually uh wrote this in the trading community. If you guys want to come join us, that link is down below in the pin comment or in the description of today's episode. I wrote this this morning. Um I said if the war with Iran doesn't end soon, we probably get a rate hike. Okay? If CPI is much lower than expected on Friday, we're not going to get a rate hike. But assuming it's kind of in line with expectations, you're probably going to get a rate hike. That would almost certainly give us a correction because I don't see the Fed hiking rates, then coming out and saying, "Yep, we are done." The war with Iran, a rate hike, and the lack of forward guidance could be a rough combo. So what's equally as important or even more important than do we get a rate hike or not is the commentary, the guidance that goes along with it, right? If the Fed comes out and they hike rates and they go, "Yep, we are done." The stock market's going to rip, right? One and done. Hallelujah. But if the Fed comes out, we're with Iran's still going on, I presume presume by next week. and they come out and they they say, "Yep, we just hiked, you know, did a rate hike and uh we'll see what we do next." Yeah, stocks are going to hate that. You're gonna have a correction. It's going to be brutal. So, really, it's the combination of the Iran war not ending, oil going up, most likely the markets bullying the Fed into a rate hike, and the lack of forward guidance from the Fed themselves that could create an even larger market problem going ahead. And I think that is really the biggest risk at this point would be a rate hike and just no forward guidance that markets can latch on to. This week though we will be experiencing the Treasury buying back about $15 billion of their own debt this week focused on the long end of the curve your 10 20 30year bonds and we will see what kind of impact this could have on Treasury yields and that could lower the probability of a Fed hike but we'll see. Typically, when we expect something to happen, it doesn't move the market, right? Like only surprises move the market. So, we already know this buyback is coming from the Treasury. I'm not expecting it to actually do anything. Says that Putin and Trump spoke by phone for one hour today. The Kremlin says Trump focused on trying to get a swift end to the war in Ukraine. That an end to the war would immediately open up impressive potential to restore USRussia ties and that Trump would like those ties restored during his presidency. But following that, a US defense official says we must be prepared for a protracted conflict in Ukraine. So the hope of that war ending and driving oil prices lower seems to have faded as well. Yesterday, it was reported uh via Iran that cutter's delegation was in Iran on Sunday to help deescalate tensions. Oh, and if you did not know, US energy secretary says Americans have to drive less if they want lower gas prices. Trump today touts the stock market and economic data. And unfortunately, you might need to see the stock market actually crash or go through a correction before there's any kind of fire put under these politicians to solve the problems. Scott Besson says, "I expect the economy will pull more people back to the workforce." Donald Trump said last night that oil prices will fall precipitously like everything else is dropping, but more when we win the war with Iran, $3 a gallon, but ultimately below $2 a gallon. It will all happen quickly and Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. We did get the New York Fed survey today that says consumers in August projected higher future gasoline prices. Labor market expectations were mixed in August. Expectations in August of higher unemployment rate were the highest since April of 2020. Three-year ahead expected inflation at 3.2% versus July's 3.3%. and five-year inflation expectations remain unchanged in August at 3%. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says that oil to be well supplied when the Iran and Ukraine wars are over. The problem is they are not ending. And a lot of people think this is another forever war that just began in Iran. Even on CNBC this morning, as I like to do when I wake up, turn on CNBC, what are they talking about? And well, I heard multiple people this morning say that they think the war with Iran at least is going to last a couple of months longer from here. That could be a little bit of good news if the war with Iran were to end. That would be unexpected and cause a massive rally in the markets. But if the war with Iran does not end in the next 8 days or so, you're probably going to get a rate hike. At least statistically speaking, at this point, that is the most probable outcome. I don't think we're going to get a rate hike. I don't think the Fed should be hiking rates, but according to the markets, they do. The lastditch effort to avoid a rate hike will be your CPI report on Friday. And if that is not better than expected in a material way, you're statistically going to get a rate hike. Now, I do think buying the dip of any correction that we could get in the next couple of weeks will pay dividends as I do think 2027 is going to be one of the strongest years we have ever experienced in the stock market. And it is your job right now to prepare mentally and actually in your portfolio to take advantage of any kind of correction that we may or may not get. Tomorrow, September 9th, we are going to have a slower day in the markets. You have your ADP employment change weekly as well as a 10-year bond auction. Outside of that, you don't have any economic data on the calendar that's going to move things. So, we'll be reacting to any kind of headline news that we do get. Tomorrow is also the day we are expecting to get about $15 billion bought in the long duration Treasury market from the Treasury. We will see if there's any big moves in the bond market tomorrow, but my thoughts is probably not. Now, if we take a look at the QQQ today, it looks like to me the NASDAQ wants to make a move higher here. I mean, you're still down like 4% 4% from your prior highs. You're still in this correction that began on June 3rd, but you are above your 20-day moving average by about $3. You are in an uptrend ever since that, you know, July 29th low. And to me, this is a typical um kind of consolidation pattern and you're gearing up for a larger move to the upside. Now, obviously, we have a lot of problems here. Fed meeting next week, CPI on Friday. But if those things go well, the NASDAQ could get quite explosive here. The S&P again, same kind of situation. It's been consolidating sideways ever since your all-time high on August 13th. The S&P definitely looks a lot stronger than the NASDAQ and in a similar kind of situation. The S&P is only down about 1 and a.5% from all-time highs, sitting right at about the 20-day moving average right now. Last but not least, the CNN Fear and Greed Index today sitting at 42. Market momentum in fear, stock price strength and extreme fear, stock price breath and fear, put and call options greed, market volatility neutral, safe haven demand and fear, and junk bond demand in greed. Just a broader perspective on my thoughts here in the market. I don't know what's going to happen next. I don't know if the war with Iran ends in the next eight days. Most people would say probably not. If that's the case, all of the pressure is on CPI. But if the war with Iran does not end, oil shortages are going to grow and oil prices are going to rise. Whether or not you get a correction because of a Fed hike or a month from now when oil is $110 a barrel, you're kind of leading towards the same outcome. just the timeline could look different. You are heading towards a correction or some kind of market crash event if the war with Iran does not end. That's just the direction we are heading in because oil is going to continue to go higher, right? So, I think we want to prepare for that. Although, I don't think we're going to get a hike. I'm actually not super bearish right now. I'm like not hedging my portfolio at all. I I I I think if we do get a correction, buying the dip is is the right move. But what happens between now and then is really going to come down to the catalyst, the news. What happens with the Iran war and oil markets? Do we get a rate hike or not? And nobody has the right answers to those questions. So ladies and gentlemen, let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. and hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already and hype the video on your way out. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode or in the pinned comment. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next