A Bullish Q4 is Loading !!

Yeah. Hey. Hey. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and it is finally Friday. The thing I am most interested about today is the weekly closes. So I'll talk about that when we get to the charts briefly at the end. As always, in the meantime, things are starting to look good for the bond market pricing in a pause as expected. Also fits with the cycles on the yields at a lot of this is being driven by the bond market putting in the top in yields and the bottom in the bonds. But also, we know that the PC 3month average month overmonth annualized is showing that we are back below that 2% target. Okay, so lots of people were commenting yesterday on how they've changed the basket, the way they calculate the basket. And to that, I simply say they do that all the time. And remember, it's not actually the numbers we're interested in. All of the baskets have massive flaws in the way they're calculated. All the numbers are fugazi. The whole thing is a pony show. But what we are interested in, at least on this channel, or at least I am, is the overall trend and direction. Okay. And so far, this inflation rate, fine. Happy days. Found this nice chart from Henrik here. The bearish sentiment on the 10-year has reached a 10. The last two times we saw this, we saw major cyclical tops come in for the 10-year yield. So, I've been making the case for a long time. We should be right around that window to see a top start to form for the weekly cycle as well as the multi-year cycle in TLT forming a bottom, which of course is the inverse yield trade. I've been making the case that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme. And now we can see that notice that there's a big learning opportunity here for a lot of people, right? If this turns out to be a major cyclical top, not only would the cycles have matched that, but the sentiment will have matched as well. And if we care to take note of these kind of things, then you can add that as another feather in your cap to help you the next time you see one of these extremes reached. They're not always reached. A lot of tops are sneaky and sideways and distributive in nature, but when they pop up like this, okay, it gives you increased confidence that the cycles are not just going to top and then kind of bounce, but top and have a significant top. The pattern to look for, by the way, is for the yields to top first, then the stocks, and then commodities. We saw that in 2007 as you can see at the top and in 2000 yields first, stocks second, commodities third. So then if we go back here and the yields are indeed going to put in a significant top, it tells us we got about 3 to four months of upside in the stock market and then we should get the stocks topping in. And of course that fits with this crazy insano berserko fractal I've been talking about. This is in jeopardy here because we've used up a quarter of the cycle. So if this has now completed the digestion after the up thrust, then now would be about the time to begin the next leg higher. And that's why I said at the start, I'm super interested in the weekly close. Get a nice big green weekly candle here. Put some swings in for the likes of the Dow and the Russell, which have been lagging a bit. And I say it is on for this move. Then all we need is for the yields to confirm that weekly cycle high and start to roll over. And the clock will be officially ticking until we get to this neighborhood looking for that big narrative to arrive perfectly on time to reset these cycles. Notice how this syncs up with the gold cycles, the oil cycles, and probably a shakeout in the crypto market. doesn't have to be to new lows, but certainly some decent pullback, which I would consider the kind of final opportunity to load the boat before we enter a big bull market for Bitcoin. Historical data and seasonality is on our side here. Year-to- date in the sweet spot for the equity markets, right, a strong Q4 is likely when the S&P 500 year to date is up between 10 and 20% heading into Q4. The Q4 returns are favorable. We're higher 85% of cases and up 5.3% on average. I think we're going to smoke that. As you can see from this silly fractal of mine, I think we've got some big blowoff top leg into the midterms. Got to goose this gas, haven't we? We really do. Grease the gas. Grease the goose. I don't know what it is. All right, but we're going to run this thing hot. I'm pretty sure of it at the moment. Meanwhile, gold, I think, as I kind of hinted at earlier, has got one final lower low to make, and then that will be the half cycle low in the 8year cycle complete. And then I do expect fireworks for the precious metals and for the miners. The miners did extremely well just in this little full storm. So, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume if something like this is coming, the miners are going to be the super performers of the upcoming cycle. So, we got this 8year cycle low here, the half cycle low in the 8year cycle, aka the 4year cycle, and then another 8year cycle due around 2030. And then I'm kind of expecting another half of an 8year cycleish, to play out and take us to these massive, massive numbers. So, wild times for sure and a real blessing in disguise here that the setup is so clean heading into this low around the end of the year, maybe early Q1 of next year in line with this right here. One final thing I wanted to point out. It's not very reliable. In fact, I would argue not really reliable at all, but a heavy skew here, okay, and a large sample size, something we don't often see with these Twitter polls, okay? Over 14K people have voted on this, and just over 70% of people think we're going to see 100K rather than 60K in Q4. I reckon there's a chance we could see both up to 100 down to maybe not 60 but high 60s or low7s. In either case, I think all dips are for buying here as I've been consistent in saying it could well be something like this. If so, then this is definitely the fullear low down here. And again, this becomes the final opportunity to load the boat before a big bull market ensues. We would expect sentiment to be extremely washed here because wave 2 often elicits worse sentiment than at the bare market lows. Something else that would be notable about this, whilst we're expecting bearish sentiment for the wave two correction, I personally have to think if the yields roll over on top, right, this blows off and then some sort of weird event happens, something quote breaks or some black swan shows up, like whatever it is, there'll be something to explain away the price action, right? Cycles happen first, narrative comes after and is appended to the price action to explain it away. But if something like this is going to happen hard and fast, right? The last time we saw an extreme right translation followed by a plunge was in the leadup to the C19 era, right? Extreme right translation hard and fast plunge coupled with a pandemic narrative. So I'm not saying there would necessarily be another pandemic or anything of that magnitude. There might be some war fears or some credit market blowing out or something going bang. Like I have no idea what it would be. I'm not going to really speculate. But I can tell you that every one of these major corrections that heads into the four-year lows is always accompanied with some sort of narrative that your average investor becomes extremely concerned about and contributes to the extreme bearish sentiment that you would expect to see towards the lows. And so if that is pretty much baked into the cake at this point, which it seems to be until something massively changes, you got to think that the sentiment in here would be pretty bad during this correction because the idea would be, oh, we were just getting started. We were just going to a new bull market. Everyone's just FOMOed in above this higher high and then all of a sudden, oh fake alien invasion, oh cyber attack, oh bank collapses, oh whatever the narrative is, right? And people be saying things like, well, we would have been at 150k by now if it wasn't for whatever that narrative is. Insert your narrative here. So I do expect sentiment to be extremely bad here, probably worse than it was at the lows. But in either case, I think all dips are for buying. I'm thinking for me, I'm going to start to just nail a third of my spot stack and another third and another third somewhere in here. If this comes very deep down, anything on a sort of low7s, high 60s handle, that would be me just smash buying. I'm looking to double my stack and basically just tuck it away. I think that's what I really want to do here. And then I'm will look to buy a bunch of the higher beta assets, micro strategy, smartware, circle, etc. into that kind of buy the fear moment. And I think then pretty much everything will be good. The worst case scenario is that we miss the bottom by a bit and then the allocation to Bitcoin is higher up than I could have preferred it to be. But outside of that, so long as the yields top, the stock market continues to blow, oil rolls down into a major yearly low like it's expected to, and the metals also continue their path on their way to their major cycle low, then I say we're going to look back at this year pretty fondly and say that there was a lot of craziness and a lot of wild stuff going on, a lot of speculation, but ultimately the cycles did do the cycle things. I'm really looking for these higher beatas here like MSTR to break out and then come back for a hard retest somewhere in here. And then again when we zoom out it will just be that inverse head and shoulders that I've been talking about since the top practically. Right? We're talking about this being one scenario. Okay. And the other scenario being that we kind of plunged and forced the low early. And then all of that is really just exactly what I traded through in the prior cycle here. You can go back in real time and see me add this fractal back here at the top. And it's pretty much done the exact same thing. So some sort of low sometime around late this year and then it should be time for a new bull market and then all lows should be higher lows as we trend higher. So should be a pretty wild few years ahead for us here I think. But as it stands right now the big focus for me at least is I want to see a good weekly close here. So I would like for this candle to close green and with no real upper shadow wick I would like for the NASDAQ to really try to close out a new highs today. I would like for these weekly candles to print the bottom of a swing for the Dow and for the Russell here. Okay, got the making of a swing here. So, we just need a big green week next week and the making of a early pivot and a swing pattern for today's candle or today's close I should say. And then I think we'll be looking good to be honest with you. I think things will be going well. But like I said, because we've used up a quarter of the cycle now, this would kind of be the time to start to get that push into the half cycle high. And just looking at the US 100, which is where we got the level three members allocation at the moment, it looks like again we're within pips of these highs. So if we can close this weekly candle at new highs, I would say things are looking good. Speaking of looking good, semis continuing to push, right? This is bullish. Managed to grab this at the lows in the long-term account with the level three members as well. This was a setup we gave to the level three members and again another clear leader in the semis department. So I reckon things are looking good. It's just a case now of finding those sweet spots to build the allocation so that we can keep the risk managed and I think things are going to be going pretty well pretty soon. So you can probably tell by my tone of voice I'm becoming more and more optimistic and that's because the cycle read has become clearer and clearer. It's also because the cycles are coming into sync. So I can say show me the charts and I'll tell you the news. And the news is that we're probably going to be pretty bullish into the end of the year and then something is going to show up that everyone becomes extremely concerned with. And it's been a long time since we've had a big crash and then I've been jumping up and down screaming contrarian at the lows. But I'm looking forward to that happening and I suspect that should happen sometime between January and February. So happy days, happy Friday. Have a fantastic weekend and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. He's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Tra like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. 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