Bitcoin Broke the October Low: Is $68,100 Next by December?

The question of the day is, has the midterms marked the low for Bitcoin? We have never seen a green November after trading under the October low. So, we're in for a rough next couple of weeks most likely. And of course, with yesterday's failed rally, or at least seeming to be a failed rally, I think that it's time to invoke some of the major stats that we have been going over on this channel because I think they're going to provide a lot of value into what is likely to come next. And look, I'm just going over the stats today. That's all that I'm doing right here. And that's what we do on this channel anyway. So if you find this content valuable, I don't know, consider subscribing because that is how we come at price action. So first things first, if recall from of course last week, we're going over what to expect in November. Very specifically, what if November trades below the low of October? And as it would have it, Bitcoin has already done that. And that is very significant because any time that Bitcoin has seen the November low lower than the October low at any moment there has never been a positive closing November from start to finish whenever that has happened. And again we have we have seen that now actually twice in fact we saw it on Monday we saw it again today Bitcoin even making a new low below the uh below the October low. So that is significant. So I want to go over when we have seen that happen. What has traditionally happened after that also in December as well which I mean just get ready for a [ __ ] data dump right here. Anyways uh yes when Bitcoin has traded below the October low November has had a median return of 17.5%. That is significant. Um, of course, if you are going to also look at when the low of November typically comes in after trading below the low of October, you're typically looking around day number 17 to day number 25. So, we're in for a rough next couple of weeks most likely, unless a Bitcoin does something well that it's never done before. Not impossible, but again, on this channel, I always follow probabilities and statistics, and ultimately uh that is something I personally don't really want to be going against. Here you can see all of the previous five um November and what they have returned over time. And also we can look at what December has done too. And that is going to be the gray bar right here. Uh we have only seen one time when November has done what we have seen it do go on in December to actually post positive returns and that was in fact 2011. So very early on in Bitcoin's history and eh long time ago might not be super relevant to what we're seeing right here. In fact, since 2018, which I refer to as kind of the modern area of Bitcoin, yeah, it's always been negative. And we can see returns in December spanning from uh, you know, as little as -3.1% to as you know, as much as -7%. So, putting that into context of each other, I mean, Bitcoin potentially losing 17.5% for this month is uh that would be pretty [ __ ] disastrous, honestly. I mean, you can see the returns right here. Even since 2018, those negative returns have gotten I mean, they've been just been really [ __ ] bad. Uh 2018 was down 37% by the way. Uh followed by 2019 which was down 17 1.5%. Uh 2022 down 16 spot 2% and 2025 down 17 1.5%. Very uniform uh losses in those past three iterations by the way. So not a good stat, you know, if I do want to maintain a bullish bias here. And again, the short-term bearish bias will unfortunately have to continue for me on this channel. And now I could say that the pivot for me getting uh bullish, if you will, is reclaiming effectively yesterday's high. Still, if you want to go by the book, officially the last training lower high was that $81,900 tick. The very important level that we did set out from yesterday's rally that hey, Bitcoin, while there are some good things going on in the short term, you know, that could very likely uh get it to test that region unless if that region is reclaimed on a daily closing basis, this is objectively a downtrend. And well, so far, you know, the trend has been your friend to the downside and Bitcoin, you know, threading a new low right here. Uh, not amazing, but I guess it's not, you know, it's not it's not over till the fat lady sings, but the fat lady's getting warmed up right now, man. I mean, look at this uh daily time frame right here too for Bitcoin. That silver cross is looking like it is all but inevitable by the end of today's closure. If especially if Bitcoin's finishing here or lower, we can uh backwards engineer exactly what number Bitcoin would have to close above today in order to uncross the cross. And that would be it would be $79,59. Not impossible, but you know, that's a little bit under a $3,000 rally between now and end of day. I would say it is unlikely or I'm not necessarily looking for it to happen myself. Um, on top of this, we should we should go over here to the next uh the next tab and we should be aware that oh man, when we do expand this result, not just November's but just any month because realistically when we're looking at the November data, it was only five November, you know, so kind of limited in that regard where you trade below the October low or just below the previous month's low. So I expanded the whole search here in which we will look to at every month since 2011 that traded under the prior month's low and now we have 188 months of which 63 times that did happen and the question is how far under that low did the month finally go and so when we are looking at uh that data three and four went at least negative 3.8% 8% under the median however was minus or negative 10 and a half% almost uh 1 in4 went under or negative 22 and a4% or worse uh from the October low that is you know that is going to give us kind of an uh you know some areas of interest to the downside 73,7300 is a big one of course that's going to be the daily charted simple right here or yes I do have it on my chart uh it's actually a little more like 73,200 but it does correlate with that uh the next major area of interest pertaining to this deck data would be 68,100. My opinion is that look, if Bitcoin loses, you know, effectively the September low and and honestly might already be set in motion. Uh, you know, mid60s is about where I'm looking towards. Um, so I guess that kind of correlates with that. And then of course the fullon dummium structure, which I'm not so much uh convinced of. You know, I do think that Bitcoin probably is not going to make a new macro low here, but that would actually be pointed towards damn [ __ ] close to it 59,300. Uh ultimately I do think that worst case scenario here is that Bitcoin comes down to like mid60s and then spikes into what you know hopefully formulates in a monthly low or higher low in that case. But for right now, you know, it is uh it is looking like the short-term bearish buys unfortunately has to remain and and all the signals that we spoke about yesterday unfortunately are just they're not they they don't matter right here. The 3-day time frame which did not close yesterday is obviously not going to confirm hidden bullish averance because we do not have an actual reversal right here as of right now. I mean, again, it's another what, six uh 7 hours left in the day to go. I'm sure some people are optimistic, but uh I don't know. I don't know if I'd be holding on to the same optimism here. Uh 5day time frame obviously closed tomorrow. That's another big one as well. You know, can we have some hopeium here or is there any hope realistically to be had? Look, as long as Bitcoin's below the 55 EMA, I don't think so. That is about 77,000 bucks. If Bitcoin can reclaim that, I think there's like a small glimmer still alive, I suppose. But again, that November stat, it's not going away. Unfortunately, it's not going to go away. So, we need a major anomaly here. If I'm going to bring up one major counterpoint with with anomalies recently, we actually have seen a lot of anomalies on the past three months data. If you recall, August and September, those are traditionally the worst months for Bitcoin. And we've seen actually the best months of this year in August and September. Uh October traditionally the best month for Bitcoin. And we saw a pretty I mean, we basically saw like a down month. In fact, I mean, if you're looking at the the 5day time frame here, it's just red the whole [ __ ] way through. Just red dildo after red dildo after red dillo. Crazy [ __ ] But yes, you know, we have seen these things play opposite. But again, it's not like we've never seen a red October before. It's not like we've ever seen a green September or August before, but we have never seen a green November after trading under the October low. And that is sort of the main issue that I'm kind of uh grappling with right here to uh to have any sort of like realistic opium. Like I said though, for for actual structure, look, you can make me an absolute believer in this uh you know, in this asset in the short term and reverse a you know, a technical downtrend if Bitcoin could simply just reclaim 81,900. Seems like a [ __ ] you know, country mile away right now. But hey, that is the official line in the sand. Even just reclaiming, like I said, yesterday's high would probably be good enough. Personally, that would be good enough for me. Uh but until then, you know, the trend is your friend. The trend is quite literally to the downside. Other than that, we can go over here, check out stocast momentum. Uh daily time frame did flip to the upside yesterday momentarily, but it will lose that upside curvature. If Bitcoin does finish today below 76,400, it's a long day left to go. Bitcoin is about 200 300 bucks below that number right now. If Bitcoin can maintain above it, it doesn't do a whole lot. But I guess, you know, it's not like uber [ __ ] bearish, if you will. 2-day time frame, this one also had a very momentary short-lived cross to the upside yesterday. And this one will not close tonight. Obviously, it'll close tomorrow night alongside the 5-day. But hey, if it could reclaim above 77,150. That would also be a somewhat uh non-disastrous signal. And then, of course, the 5day also settles tomorrow. Again, the 5day time frame, just need to see it close back above 77,000 bucks to avert at least at minimum that uh that that pending silver cross to the downside. That would also be extremely nasty. Now, to be fair and to give the 5-day um uh cross its fair, you know, it's its due diligence. Typically, you do see the low of the 5day silver cross on between day number five and day number 10. And we are inching our way towards day number 10. Today is day day number nine actually. So, tomorrow is day number 10. So ultimately um you know that kind of would be expected but you'd literally be expecting literal just straight upside from then or sideways upside I should say meaning that the low of today like should absolutely 100% you know 100 million% hold again that is a big question mark right now and I'm not sure I'd be betting on that per I mean I would not be betting on that uh as of right now uh but yeah like I said that's my line in the sand until bitcoin reclaims it I have to be remaining with you know a bearish bias in the short term higher higher term time frames like macro time frames. Still think that the macro low is in. But hey, if Bitcoin comes down another, you know, 10 11,000 bucks from here. That's a significant move. And I do think, you know, I'd be interested in personally, you know, buying a lot of a lot of IBIT around those numbers. But at the same time, uh that's what that's, you know, 15% down from here. So yeah, that's kind of significant. Kind of significant. It's actually very significant. Other than that, um what else do we got? Should we check on a Koshi? See what Kowali is doing right here? Anyways, let's go over to crypto. Let's see what now they're pricing in for the end of the week and also the end of the month. that actually be very interested to see this end of the week which is tomorrow of course Bitcoin price below 36 or sorry 76,000 or above is actually still 51 cent yes contract. So basically coin flip right there with one day left to go or a little bit less than one day left to go. What else do we have right here? Uh no don't care about the ranges. Those are actually very difficult. I would not suggest playing those. Uh I actually do like playing some of these and the monthlies and the dailies. Uh monthlys right here. How will Bitcoin how high will Bitcoin get in November? Now we can see that the $82,500 uh yes contract has been repriced from about 50 cents now down to 42 cents. I think it was actually maybe closer to 60 cents yesterday. But anyways, yeah, uh market is responding to this. I mean looking less and less likely to me unless if there's like a you know a real steading of the ship where Bitcoin kind of is at right now. It's going to be difficult man. It's going to be very very difficult in my opinion. But uh but yeah, anyways, if Bitcoin were to reclaim, like I said, yesterday's high, I would actually have no problem taking 82,500 probably all the way up to, you know, the previous highs of of of October and September. Probably even maybe look for a new high here, too. But until then, man, you know, let's just look at the higher term time frames kind of what the damage is being done right now. Monthly time frame, we can see a drive of phantom regular bearish divergence. This is on character's RSI, so it is penning the monthly closure, but hey, here or lower by end of month. Yeah, that is another uh signal that this thing wants to come down at least to that green 55 EMA and that is currently 65700 or so. So yeah, I do think that there is potential for that if uh you know if these moves play out, there are things pointed down there. That is for sure. Two uh two-month time frame as well. Uh this one doesn't necessarily have any real signals on it, but we can see that yellow 21 EMA uh coming in around somewhere what this like 70,800 or so again perhaps a you know a little bit of a stopping point realistically. Um but uh but yeah, I do expect that that low to hold again from this summer. The real question is is Bitcoin come down another 10 or 15%. And right now bears do have control in the short term. So I suppose we shall have a little more clarity on that situation tomorrow. We're going to get the 5day closure, the weekly closure, the bi-weekly closure and 10day actually now that I recognize it. So a lot of things coming into fruition tomorrow. If Bitcoin is still below especially 77,000 bucks, I would say there's not much technical reasons even at that moment to uh to have any hopeium for the short-term medium-term higher term time frames like I say still remain in their long-term dominant uptrend. But [ __ ] mountain uh that is going to probably lead towards another couple months uh you know between now and December at minimum for you know sideways and down and uh and ultimately I've done my buying in this area already. You know, again, my rule for myself is when I get big discounts like this off of the major highs, yes, I will go in a little bit heavier with my daily DCA. So, it's time for me now actually to get on over here, put my money where my mouth is, and let's go and buy 100 Dpinos of Bitcoin right here right now on Coinbase. I'm doing it on Coinbase as usual because we do have the lowest fees on Coinbase with the affiliate link in the description below. We partner with Coinbase. 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So, that is actually ma uh rather massive right here. Anyways, we shall end on such a note and I will be coming back with another live stream tomorrow. Been having a lot of fun on these live streams recently and I should let you know that we've been doing them about an hour earlier. So, uh if you are, you know, just wondering where the [ __ ] they've went, well, we've changed the time.