Bitcoin Sold the CPI Print. The Target Is $79,700 Within 10 Days

And we can look at one month out as historically 79% of them going to be green during that time with a median return from only the results from 2018 onwards at 14.5%. A lot of talk about today as Bitcoin does come down a little bit. We have been looking for a short-term correction, but still the long-term picture very much intact. Nothing's really changed there. But the short term, yes, it does look like those corrective targets hopefully coming sooner rather than later because uh well sooner rather than later for something that is inevitable is preferable, at least in my opinion. just rip off the [ __ ] band-aid and get it off with and get it over with because next week is the week still that I'm looking for uh Bitcoin to put in more or less a low and try for some overall upside. So, we'll be going into the data for that. We'll be going into what the overall picture looks like. Realistically, nothing's nothing major has changed here uh despite Bitcoin, you know, coming down. I mean, realistically, like what a thousand bucks, couple thousand bucks from yesterday. Everyone goes [ __ ] crazy. Everyone's talking about [ __ ] rate hikes again. And still actually on Koshi the rate hikes are not being priced in. They are still pricing it as a higher probability of a hold rather than a hike. And then of course tomorrow is PPI which probably matters more for such discussions anyways. At least that's the way that I understand things. Not that I'm going to pretend to uh pretend to uh have any sort of real insight into what the Fed is doing to what the FOMC is going to do because ultimately I am just a pleb like you. But many people out there in the cryptocurrency world, in the just financial world, will pretend as if they have some sort of insight, unless you're quite literally an insider. I maintain my position that you have zero [ __ ] edge and you should go [ __ ] yourself because you are selling hopes and dreams on something that you have absolutely no [ __ ] clue about. And there is nothing bad about admitting that. We can admit that sometimes we just do not know things. We cannot have perfect information and thus without perfect information, we cannot make such a declaration with high probability. And well, I guess that's well at least what I'm going for. I guess other people have different opinions on that and that's why we have markets. So that's all good in the hood. Anyways, I I do not think that Bitcoin's failing here. I do think Bitcoin has some downside. Yes. But that's the same thing that we've been speaking out about now for a little bit over a week. Uh ultimately, I do still think that Bitcoin does finish out this month higher. I don't think that Bitcoin has has seen the high for the month just yet. And uh still, you know, despite despite some short-term downside, which again was expected, uh we have more setups just pointing up towards, you know, higher over the next month, month and a half than we do otherwise. In fact, I don't really have any setups that suggest, you know, any major massive downside despite this short-term correction. Dav uh Dav Turbach says Bitcoin should drop 20% and complete the BART pattern. Um everyone's entitled to their opinions, I guess. I mean, [ __ ] what would even 20% look like from here? I guess that would put Bitcoin back around what? Yeah, below 70,000 bucks. Um, I'm not of that opinion myself personally, but hey, more power to you. I hope that you represent that in your trading behaviors so that we can argue on the actual charts. I do try my best. But hey, at the end of the day, I'm just going to have stat stats and probabilities. I will, as always, at some point be massively [ __ ] wrong. So far, things have been working out quite well, though. Uh, but yeah, of course, you know, when you're going off stats and probabilities, there's going to be there's going to be variance in them in in even the best cases and in the worst cases. I mean, [ __ ] if something has a 70% probability to work out, there's still a 30% probability that it does not. It does not at all. But still, I don't really see anything here that makes me re uh rethink my own analysis. Um, I'm sure a lot of people are going to freak the [ __ ] out with Bitcoin below that previous May high, of course. But let me just go to the charts right here and we'll get into the actual analysis of the day. I'm sure many people will be freaking out with Bitcoin back below that previous high from May of this year. But again, I maintain that look, Bitcoin has an uptrend here in place. And if you are familiar with the training high or low concept from the TA 101 or the Crown Trading Bible, I just don't see any major issues with Bitcoin long long term. As long as you're below there, sorry, above there. Uh for the people who are talking about this being like the m the next like major massive [ __ ] breakdown. Again, I'll pull your attention to the quarterly time frame right here. I have a very difficult time seeing Bitcoin for this quarter. this quarter being uh between now and end of December getting really anywhere below I mean god forbid even 70,000 bucks but realistically even 75,000 bucks I think is rather unlikely [ __ ] if you're a bull on the quarterly which there are many good reasons to to be because one there is hidden bullish evidence right here on characters RSI plus we did see a bullish engulfing dong on the Q3 close as well uh you should probably be looking for lows somewhere around that red 5 EMA I think it'd be kind of difficult to get Bitcoin below there on any higher term time frame closing basis again I say higher term time frame from closing basis. That doesn't mean you can get you can't get wicks below. Of course, you can. You know, these things can happen, but it matters on a closing basis. Anyways, as far as the correction goes, still the target does remain down to the green 55 EMA based off the cross between the red 5 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA right here. That is now crawling its way up around about 79,800. Of course, when we when we started to look at this um you know, a while ago, it was nearly a,000 bucks lower and it's already and it's already crawled up a little bit more than a,000 bucks over the past 7 to 10 days. So, you know, the longer that Bitcoin takes to get to that corrective target, which I think probably happens uh before the midpoint of next week, maybe even these next few days before the end of this week is perhaps possible. You know, that will have a chance to crawl up a little bit higher. I expect it's probably around 80,000 bucks when it gets tested. Again, it is a minimum corrective target, so you can see a wick below. But basically, this is an expected correction. And even from the daily point of view, that last trending higher low for the daily time frame is all the way at 75,000 bucks. So theoretically, bit Bitcoin could, you know, come down a little bit lower like let's say to 77 or 78,000 bucks. It would still be a higher low overall. So I really don't want to get lost in the sauce like I think a lot of people are right now. Kind of paying attention to all the [ __ ] headlines as usual. Listen to all the [ __ ] you know um what's it called? Uh the uh blah blah blah what's sensationalist uh sort of analysis, you know, that gets a lot of great views but ultimately has very little predictive capability or value in general outside of just pure entertainment. Um, I I I just don't see any reason to be significantly concerned as of right now. Remember, not only do we have the daily corrective setup over here with that target in mind, but also the bi-weekly time frame did have or is likely to, I should say, reconnect with that red 5 EMA after disconnecting with it on the previous closure which happened on Sunday. So, again, that is a real target as well. It's a little bit below 80,000 bucks, but again, anywhere down around there, fair enough. and uh and that fill that as a again sort of a a corrective area of interest if you will. So we kind of make a nice area between 80,000 bucks and maybe as low as 78,000 bucks on a stray wick. You know, you never know how low these things do indeed go. Uh but again, I you know, these are all very very common. 10day time frame right here basically has a reconnect with its red 5 EMA as well. Might have one more run towards that uh towards that low. Very possible. But again, with 3 days left to go, I do think that that 10day time frame stocastum setup that we went over in yesterday's video does deserve a lot or in in my opinion, I'm going to be giving it a lot of uh you know, a lot of notice right here. Remember, the 10day time frame is getting above the 80 read for the first time on the stoastic oscillator uh in quite some time. And realistically, anytime that this has happened in the past, it has led to general gains over the next month. If we go over here to of course our 10 our 10day stocaster test or uh study I should say we can we can look at one month out as historically 79% of them going to be green during that time with a median return from only the results from 2018 onwards at 14 1.5%. If we include all history for Bitcoin that goes up to 18 spot 2%. Um of course we fast forward 2 or 3 months out you know you're talking about 89% green and 95% green respectively. I would argue that this is uh not something that I want to bet against and seeing as we're going to see that happen u you know on this explosure extremely likely unless a bitcoin you know really catastrophically falls here I would say it really would have to close below about 79,000 bucks to potentially revert that we don't have a predictive um uh uh backwards calculation for that by the way unfortunately um so I'm just kind of guesstimating in my head maybe it's lower than that maybe it's a little bit higher but I'd imagine it's at least that or lower um but yeah assuming that that does happen you know we can kind of take whatever price is right here and within a, you know, within a couple months probably double digits higher. Uh, double digits in percentage higher is what I'm trying to say. Anyways, as far as the short-term correction, um, I also do want to go over which one was it? Yes, the CPI put right here. I did a quick little study on this one. Um, you know, I I don't think that this is honestly that valuable in terms of using it to formulate trades or ideas, but I just want to show that, you know, when you're looking at CPI, when you're looking at PPI, all of these sort of things where you're more and more removed from actual price analysis on the asset that you are interested in and looking at, the further and further away from a realistic edge you have. When we're talking about setups right here based off of CPI prints, you know, you're talking about things that have a 43% probability or or or or 57% probability. This is in my opinion, you know, not that much better than a coin flip. Thus, it's not worth trading upon. And again, this is sort of my gripe with a lot of people who just continue to [ __ ] focus on this [ __ ] despite not really having any real background in it and obviously no real insight or insider information as well. uh when I look at it right here, you know, the day of, we're looking at 43% green when we get results like we did today. However, when you're looking at at terms of returns, we're talking about less than a half percent. We're talking about less than a quarter of a percent move in many cases. Like, this is just not that [ __ ] useful just to like just to literally [ __ ] put it right in your front of, you know, in front of your face. Again, I understand that people who are tuning into content like this, you probably already know this. You're probably of the same opinion. that's why you, you know, gravitate towards a channel like mine because we ti we try to just focus on stuff that we can actually you know really um uh you know be as close to uh whereas you know other channels will make sensationalist headlines out of this sort of [ __ ] I just I I don't know where to take that to be honest with you. Now of course we could go look at the couch markets over here and I do think that uh this has influenced a little bit of the markets. Uh this was one of the marks that we were looking at yesterday. I believe it's under the economics tab. Let's just double check. Yeah, there we go. Um yesterday if you recall the Fed decision in October was still pricing in a very high probability of Fed maintaining rate. It was around about 80ish% or sorry 80 cent uh for a yes contract. Now that's gone down to 67 cent. That is still obviously better than 50 cent. Um and uh and I would say anything over 60, you know, is is is kind of heavily in favor of that when it comes to this sort of stuff. From me just purely looking at it over time, uh it seems to me that the couchy predicted markets are very much on point with this sort of stuff. So maybe they actually do have an edge within it, which fair enough. I'll follow that. But yes, I'd still be betting on, you know, on a uh you know, on a hold rather than a hike at this point. Maybe PPI tomorrow changes that. But uh I would say despite even the slightly uh hotter than expected um uh results that we saw for CPI, you can see that it's still massively in favor of Fed holding rates. So that's there. Of course, you want to play along on Koshi. If you want to if you want to gamble away your life savings, then have [ __ ] fun with that cuz there is a show link description below where if you trade $50 in trading volume, they will give you up to $500 in free trading credit. Yes. Um there was a big rep r repricing of one of the Bitcoin contracts that I do want to draw attention to. Actually make my own little bets on it right now too. Um 87,500 has been repriced to 41. If you recall on Monday that was just around 50 cent for yes contract. I still you know I I'm I'm still looking at Bitcoin as likely to be above there. So I'm going to bet another another 20 buckaroon on this one which will be a pan out of uh you know almost $47. Might be able be able to even buy lunch based off of that. Uh but yes, there we go. And above 90,000 bucks has been repriced to 25 cents again. That was 32.5 cents on Monday as well. And we actually do have some things that suggest that Bitcoin very likely is going above 90,000 bucks. But the timing of that is more variable because it's more so a range between that would be uh middle of this month or I guess it would be starting next week of this month um to the middle of November. And that's based off of many things. in part uh the golden cross um setup over here I think still is a big component of this because we are now inching our way uh towards day number 40. You can see here again the dispersion of re of returns for the golden cross setup is nearly identical for our current realized results of this golden cross. Again the golden cross is a cross between the 50 simple and the 200 simple matters for the long term. I don't think it's that big of a deal in the short term honestly. Um but so far we have been tracing the median returns that you would expect uh pretty you know pretty pretty much one to one especially as of the last 10 days. You can see the white line is the realized returns for this current gold across. The green line is of course the historical median returns and then the yellow the deeper yellow right here is the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile of returns. So generally you can see the median really starts to you know rise up a lot once you get to around day number 40. That doesn't mean exactly when day number 40 hits Bitcoin's going to be going to the [ __ ] moon. Um well it's probably not going to the moon at all depending upon how you define that but but uh but somewhere around there is where we expect that next leg up. Basically until now we've been tra tracing it like quite well. Yes there was an overshoot back on around day number 14 to day number 10 region. Uh but as you can expect when you are looking at these sort of uh these sort of charts you know this is quite literal uh you know me uh returning to the mean returning to the mean mean reversion um which does apply to returns or at least in my experience that actually can be counted up it's just like when you are creating a strategy and when you're working out the stats pertaining to that strategy this is why you want to know the median and average results for that strategy because when you have a trade that is massively overperforming or underperforming. You can actually draw a lot of information from that pertaining to what you would be looking at right here. And as of right now, by the way, there is a slight a slight underperformance from the median historic returns to the current returns for this one. And technically speaking, if this one continues to underperform, especially as we get closer and closer to day number 40, which will be basically next uh beginning of next week, you know, if if if it's still underperforming there, you probably have some plus EV just by looking, you know, just by kind of buying. uh if it does go below the historical medium returns as you'll get to play catch-up on the other side too and especially historically speaking you know that's when you really expect a big leg up here. So you know I would look at that as in my opinion kind of a you know a a signal that you actually have an edge honestly. Um anyways other than that what else do I have here uh ready for you. Obviously we've already gone over the daily um you know in terms of the daily corrective setup. The returns for this after you actually test the 55 EMA, the next day is very likely to be green 70 70% of the time. If you fast forward 5 days, 60% of them are green. When you get out further than that, I don't think it matters all that much. Honestly, it's just not that relevant to a daily time frame once you go 10 and 20 days out. But the first uh day to 5 days much more of a likely to be green period, but the returns on that relatively low, you know, less than a percent. So, not not a humongous predictive um component right there. The big focus, like I said, for me on the long term is going to be the 10day uh stocast momentum setup right here, plus the golden cross over here. And then also something that I have not really actually even spoken about, although it is relevant, is the 5day 5 EMA uh reconnect, which I should also do on the 10day by the way, too. That would uh be a little more useful in the short term. But in this case, you know, we typically see a nice bounce from that about 7 and a half% in the first days after uh sorry, in the first 10 days after a 5day reconnect. So, if you look at the 5-day time frame right here, this one did reconnect as of the last period. So, we are on the first 5-day period right here. That runs out in 3 days. So, we're literally on day number two actually. Um, so that really means that we have like what another 7 days basically uh for that period to play out. And generally, you're going to be up about 7 12% from that uh after the reconnect. So, you know, what will that look like as the reconnect was at about 80 or I guess we take it from the low of this dildo right here at 81800. 7 and 12% puts Bitcoin back around the high. is actually maybe slightly higher than that. Again, you know, variance around these, but that really correlates incredibly well when you're looking at this as a bounce setup then playing into the golden crawl setup right here because that would correlate like right when you expect to the next big setup his historically speaking from this setup like just putting the puzzle piece together. Again, I I I do think that most of this is just an opportunity. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong at any given moment in time, but at the same time, as long as Bitcoin still even has at the very [ __ ] minimum a daily uptrend, I just do not see what all of the [ __ ] commotion is about people getting incredibly [ __ ] bearish right here. I mean, it is like it is like [ __ ] clockwork with all this [ __ ] Micro psychology really does matter if you can actually measure it properly. And I swear all of the usual [ __ ] suspects are talking about Bitcoin going back down to new lows for this quarter. Again, I'm not saying that it's impossible, but it's not my first [ __ ] bet when I'm looking at a chart like this on the quarterly. That's what I'm trying to say. Is a little DCA today. Actually, that reminds me. I need to put my money where my mouth is. I've been talking about all these all these things. And I need to buy my own Derpenas for Bitcoin right here. So, let me just uh put in I realize that the uh that the comment section or the the uh the chat section is blocking the actual order entry. Um but you'll see once the actual order comes through. Of course, I do have a show link for Coinbase in the description below as well. It does you 80% off your spot trading fees. That's why I'm using it to accumulate the old coins right here. Looks like I'm a little bit off current market, but that's fine. I can wait. I can wait. That's all good. Anyways, oh, I should also let everyone know um just cuz I haven't spoken about it for like a few days or maybe even a week now. Uh we have all of our indicators, including the caretakers, um uh caretakers, uh RSI on sale for 20% off. The reason why is because Trading View is changing their rules as far as we know by the end of this month. So, starting November 1st, uh we're no longer going to be able to to offer lifetime access to indicators. They will only be allowed to be monthly access. Like, you you'll have to pay a [ __ ] monthly subscription. Trading View is making these changes. I can assure you, I've let them know that uh I'm not in favor of them. I'm sure many other people are not in favor of them as well. I don't understand why you wouldn't allow people to buy [ __ ] lifetime access to indicators. It's a [ __ ] no-brainer for anyone who's, you know, in this for more than like a month. Um, but hey, you know, Trading View is going to do what Trading View is going to do. And as of right now, that's all the information that I have is that they are going to get rid of that. You will not I will not be a be able to to offer lifetime access to any indicators after that date. I also have it in explicit confirmed writing that Trading View will honor all lifetime access before November 1st. So, that means that if you buy lifetime access before November 1st, then yes, you're good to go. You don't need to worry. This the uh the future changes will not apply to you. You you retain your access for the for your life for your life and even beyond that as well. You'll you'll also retain access in heaven as well or hell, wherever the [ __ ] you go. Um uh but yeah, as far as that goes, yes, the sale goes until the end of this month. Again, just literally might be the last time to get [ __ ] lifetime. And the code for 20% off is lifetime and all capitals right there. Yes. So, this is all in alignment with what we've been looking at for Bitcoin and just markets in general. It's like short-term pullback. Yes. But we still have not hit the major corrective target, the major minimum corrective target I should I should mention for Bitcoin. So I want to see that one hit before I start to get excited again. Again, in terms of timing, it's really like end of next week that I'm kind of expecting things, if they are going to be bullish, to start to be bullish. Um, and at the very at the very latest, last week of this month, like very very latest. Anyways, uh, we'll end things on that note. As always, wishing the best best