Bitcoin: This Setup Points to $100,000 Within 90 Days

So, I will go on the record again as saying I I don't think it's that crazy to be calling for more than $100,000 by end of year here. I don't think it's crazy at all to see that. Now, I do think there will be a pretty nasty correction somewhere between there as Bitcoin. Hey, what [laughter] as as bit as Bitcoin reclaim [laughter] as Bitcoin reclaims the last [laughter] as as Bitcoin reclaims the last trading lower high. Very very very very important right there. I'm trading above actually by a few, thousand spread right now and also finishing very importantly on a massive bullish engulfing dildo for last week's closure. That was done on both CME, IBIT and now Bitcoin spot as well as of last night and we do have some major statistics to be uh to be built upon that. So that is also going to bleed into the next setup as well which is going to be the weekly time frame. Seen the stocast sort of get into that very crazy that very that very very very very extreme zone for the first time basically since uh since May of 2025 that is. So that is a signal in and of itself. We'll go over the statistics kind of to uh to align with that. And of course when started off over here with Bitcoin on the weekly time frame, we see what I consider to be a bullish engulfing dildo. Now there are different ways of defining this. And the unfortunate reality of TA is that there really isn't like like real hardcore definitions for things, but I've seen many people define this different ways. And I believe that my way is honestly the best way to define it because if you don't define it this way, then they fail somewhat often. I mean somewhat often they're they're just more prone to failure. In this case, I define a bullish engulfing as it must trade below the low of the prior and then close above the high of the prior. In this case, of course, we did see last week specifically close above LA uh the previous week's high and obviously it did wick below the previous week's low as well. So, that is an engulfing by my definition. I do understand some people will take a more lenient definition with that, but again, I would argue that that is just that does not work as well. It does not work as often. I can show you the stats over here and I think that that is more compelling. So whenever we've seen that happen in Bitcoin's history, the full history of Bitcoin actually, it's really only happened six times. It is quite rare, but when it does happen on a weekly time frame, it is quite powerful. Now, of course, we've seen it many, many, many, many, many times on other time frames. But right now, we're focused on the weekly time because higher term time frames typically have, you know, stronger signals compared to lower term time frames. Now, when we've seen this signal happen, I've then documented all of the returns. If we fast forward four weeks out, 6 weeks out, or 10 weeks out, kind of like random dates right there. I should have done like 4, 8, and 12, but but [laughter] I wasn't thinking in the proper mindset this morning. Uh, but yes, when we have seen that happen, 4 weeks out, if you fast forward 4 weeks out from the confirmation of that bullish engulfing, there has been a median return of 12%. Again, medium return does mean that there's variance around that. There have been some that have been a lot more than that. There have been some that are just a little bit less than that to be fair. But four, you know, four weeks, basically a month plus 12% if we were to take that into consideration as far as current price action goes. Well, we do obviously have that closure. So, you know, 12ish% put puts Bitcoin where? Just above 90,000 bucks. Again, variance around that number, but somewhere around there is going to be now an area of interest going into I guess late October. And then, of course, we were going to fast forward 6 weeks out. So, now we're talking about like mid November at this point. those returns almost double which is kind of crazy because within that two week spread from four weeks to six weeks you see a lot of those returns basically being well returned I guess to to you the investor I suppose if you are investing at 21 spot uh sorry 23 spot 1% again that is a median on that number so you know variance around there but to put that in perspective from last week's closure we can see 23% or so puts Bitcoin actually above six digits in middle of November now again there's variance around this might be a little bit lower might a little bit higher, but you know that that that number continues to pop up now from multiple different technicals, from also multiple different seasonality metrics and also multiple completely just like out of left field quantitative analysis uh that I've been doing on this channel now for the past month or so, you know, based off of well many different uh things. So, we're seeing multiple things kind of align with that. Rosie, no. Hey, bad dog. Good dog. I love you, Rosie. But no, don't [ __ ] don't do not be scratching up my [ __ ] Anyways, yes, going back into it right here. If you then fast forward 10 weeks out, uh th you know those th those those returns typically still go you know up more at about 28 spot 2% as a median return but not as much. So you kind of like hit the you know the major bulk of it around about 6 weeks. But again if we were to play around with the numbers here that would kind of put us into where like late or sorry earlyish to mid maybe December. And uh and of course we were to put a number on that you know 28% plus the weekly's closure would put Bitcoin where that would put Bitcoin uh yeah uh closer to you know 105 or so. Again variance around these numbers but I like to use these as sort of like generalized areas of interest for targets higher on this rally. Now that can be extrapolated even further because like I said we just got another major technical signal as well. This is one that I've not spoken about on this channel since it's been relevant realistically which was way back on over here in June of 2025. But we've seen the weekly stochastic also with my specific settings get back into the critical bull zone. Now a lot of people will look at this who are labbotomized and say oh my god I read about this on on investipedia and that means it's overbought and if it's overbought it must go down exactly from here because of course nothing could ever be so so strong and also go up. No, of course not. This is a very very uh rudimentary or elementary way of interpreting such things. Same thing as like the RSI getting high. The RSI getting high is not a bad thing in and of itself. It's a very strong signal of a very strong move. However, it's when you start to get a divergence that things, you know, start to fall apart typically. Anyways, on the first move into that critical zone, if we were to document all previous times that Bitcoin is uh has seen that on the weekly time frame, well, that's happened a lot more than that weekly bullish engulfing, but these can be looked at as, you know, playing handinhand with each other. And we can look at a total of where is my uh yeah a total of 19 a total of 19 um uh iterations of of this happening in the past 10 years. And the returns from that if again if we fast forward 4 6 and 10 weeks out are going to be almost 20% versus 27% versus 44 and a.5% uh respectively again as a median as a median. So these would actually be even more compelling than the engulfing stats over here. But again these all play handin-hand with each other. So, this would be, I guess, a little bit more of an optimistic look. Uh, 44 and a.5%, you know, by early December obviously puts Bitcoin probably around previous all-time highs. If I'm just going to do like some bad mental math, I mean, that should be around there, you know, 80,000 bucks plus 40%. Um, yeah, that's got to be in the like the 110s to 120s regions. Uh, just want to make sure. Yep, there we go. Looking at like 116. Again, variance around these numbers. It's not always going to be, you know, uh, you know, it's it's not always going to be exactly those. In fact, very rarely it's going to be exactly those, but somewhere around there starts to make a lot more sense. And just another thing pointed up towards six digits. So, I will go on the record again as saying I I don't think it's that crazy to be calling for more than $100,000 by end of year here. I don't think it's crazy at all to see that. Now, I do think there will be a pretty nasty correction somewhere between there. Uh that's probably be a major opportunity as well because ultimately I'm just not bearish here. Uh although I have been having a lot of fun on Twitter and god man, I got to show you this [ __ ] Like it is absolutely [ __ ] hilarious. I will make a post that is for anyone with half of a [ __ ] brain can understand that that is a very obviously bullish post. Like Bitcoin is officially over the previous weekly's trending lower high of 82,800. Only one thing is for certain, new lows are soon. Now that will that now most people do get it seems like in the comment section or maybe it's like half and half. Now of course these two setups um uh I do or sorry actually a little more on this setup right here pertaining to the stoast setup. Uh if we were to just look at the occurrences that happened after 2020, so let's say just more of the modern ones if you will. Um the returns have actually been uh pretty cons you know pretty nice as well although a little bit less to be fair. If we're looking about 4 weeks out we're looking at you know about 12 spot 9% as return which is actually very close to kind of what we saw over here with the uh with the weekly engulfing. And if we look uh about um what is this 10 10 weeks out right here uh gaining about 20%. So you know a little bit less than this one as well. in fact, a lot less. And 89% of the time it has been green. So, it's not always always always, but you know, very high probability. And if you're new to this channel, if you don't know what the [ __ ] we're talking about, well, check out one of the free courses in the link description below. They're literally [ __ ] free. There's no strings attached. We got TA 101. We got Options 101. And then, of course, we got uh AI Trading Agents 101, which actually will show you exactly how to program and use your own AI trading agent, which is literally free. You don't even know how to you don't even need to know how to code. But anyways, um you know, as we look through all of these, I want to I want to remind you that all of this is in conjunction with the same golden cross setup that we documented the results of uh over the past couple weeks. Now, remember the golden cross happened on Bitcoin. In one moment, uh the blue the uh this blue major moving average right here is the 50 and the white is a 200. It's a moving average right there. Yes, indeed. The cross happened on the 7th, the 7th of September. So, yes, that has been going on for a little bit of time now. And if we go back to this, we can document the stat uh the the the sort of dispersion of returns from that. Anyways, as far as the golden cross does go, um we have seen this follow these sort of dispersion of returns from previous ones like eerily consistently except for today. Today things exploded a lot more. We're on day number 13 now. We've thus seen about 9 and a half% from that initial golden cross in terms of price appreciation and usually around this time you know it's more so around like 1.5% again as a medium return when you are playing that now. And now it's not I mean it's not certainly without like the full context of previous results. have seen some of them get way far out like this. But yes, starting to look a little more a little bit more like an outlier here after pretty much uh almost tracing it one for one up until now. Now, of course, over time, I expect these results to be somewhat uh smoothed out and uh and generally I'm still looking at the period past about 30 days to day number let's say 40 to 50 as the day or you know as the period to be get the most increases in uh in you know in in in in terms of price. Um, and then from there things kind of like peter out until you get to, you know, about 6 months away from there. So ultimately I, you know, I do think that Bitcoin has more upside in the fourth quarter of this year. I do think there also will be a major pullback at some point in, you know, in the in the fourth quarter of this year as well. I just think that that's going to be an opportunity and Bitcoin very, very, very, very likely to continue to the upside first here before any sort of major pullback. Remember, we do still have that corrective setup that has not been filled between the red 5 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA. That happened last week. I called this one out and I did say, "Hey, look, if you don't see this one retest within about two and a half to three days, it's very likely it's going to be one of those runners that's going to pull it up for the next, you know, probably, you know, two and a half to three weeks is what we typically do see. So, that's going to be very, you know, a lot higher than where we're at right now. Hopefully by that time. But once we do see a retest somewhere around there, that's probably where I'll call the low of whatever next correction that we do see. Until then though, this is a fresh breakout. Bitcoin wants to go higher. I don't think that there's anything like super crazy to uh to be um [laughter] you know to be uh to be saying on top of that. Other than that, of course, we can look at Ethereum. I think Ethereum is also a very very nice and obvious chart here. This one also reclaimed its its last previous trending lower high. Um actually sooner than Bitcoin, in fact, and also reclaimed all major moving averages on this past weekly closure as well. And this one, I'm still looking at this thing uh going to the hole. We're going to the hole. We're going to the hole. We're going to Buteroll's hole. We're going to the beautiful glory hole right there. somewhere between about 3200 to 3,600 is where I think this that this move does find itself. Similar to Bitcoin, you know, I I I think you probably get up closer to like 90 to 95,000 bucks and then play out your pullback and that pullback probably going to be a major opportunity. I do think that Bitcoin uh ultimately is not going to be going any lower than especially 70 whatever the low is from this current consolidation about 75,000 bucks at this point. Um but of course, you know, if Bitcoin trades up to like let's say 90,000 bucks and then pops back down to 80,000 bucks, well that's a big [ __ ] move. move. I mean, that's about a 15% correction almost or, you know, a little bit under that to be fair. But yes, uh you can imagine that that would be met with a lot of uh a lot of deliriousness on the timelines. Of course, you know, people once again saying Bitcoin is heading to new lows yet again because it did not make new lows when it was supposed to. So, fair enough. Anyways, as far as this goes, um you know, still looking up, you know, up into the right. As far as this week goes, I do want to state that the red ribbons are once again showing us the way. It has once again uh accurately provided the impetus for the low of this week. And more importantly, it is now above the midpoint of upper band one, which is officially at 84,341. I do think at some point during this week, we probably see that retested. But you can effectively look at Bitcoin as likely to play out a range between the top side of upper band one and the red dots right here the mid you know the midline of upper band one uh probably for this week. So the top end of that is actually 89,300 that is that is relevant for CME which does have a slight premium over spot price action but yes you know I I do think that Bitcoin could maybe even get as far as that this week. It wouldn't be that crazy is what I'm trying to say. At the same time, as long as Bitcoin is closing above the midbands or sorry, not not the midbands, but the midpoint here on upper band one, I'd be looking for that to kind of be an interim support on any sort of like daily pullbacks. Uh, but probably not lower. Now, of course, if Bitcoin does reject early and starts to live below 84,000 bucks, then that would be a good sign that hey, this rally is failing. Uh, but ultimately, you know, I'm I'm not really of that opinion, but of course, we always need to have a major invalidation. That would be a major warning signal, but not necessarily invalidation. For me, the invalidation now is effectively 79,000 bucks and 500, let's say, uh, more or less that sort of like last major level reclaimed. And, uh, you know, and as long as Bitcoin's above there, I just have no major issues, no major qualms with this current rally. I do look for it to go up and to the right. Um, as this is more or less resolving a 1 2 3 4 5 week long consolidation. You know, Bitcoin spent the majority of September consulting going sideways. Yeah, it was a uh it was in some cases it felt like a I guess not so tight of a range but still you know this is the range that we expected about a you know what exactly was it like a 5% range something like that. Yeah, 8% range 5% range somewhere around there. Um so kind of playing within the uh you know within the likelihood of those you know of that. Um so I'm looking at this as you know just kind of business as usual. Again you can't really expect a big pullback after the first reversal of you know of a bare market into a bull market. It's exactly what we said going back to previous market cycles as well. When you get this major move up right here, things typically trade sideways in a tight range, relatively tight range before continuing upwards and onwards. Same thing back in 2018, of course, as well right here in this consolidation before launching up much higher. That was a very aggressive one. I don't think that we're going to get something like that. Although it would look, I'm not going to complain if it does, but [laughter] but yes. And then, of course, same thing in 2015 as well, right here as well after the actual reversal. So, you know, a lot of these things, like I said, playing hand in hand. Ultimately, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, as I have been for the past couple months here, which is going to be the daily DCA over here on Dirtbase. So, I'm going to buy 100 100 Dpanas of corn. Let me just remove the chat box for well, actually, I don't really need to remove the chat box because I'll just show you the order in the order book. Let's do it just slightly off current uh best bid. And let's do it right there. 85,900 or sorry, $8590. Uh again, I'm buying 100 bucks of uh of of of the old coins there on Coinbase because it is the cheapest place to accumulate spot bitcoins. [snorts] Um you know, if you're going to be going from like regular bank to uh to an exchange, I suppose. Also, I partnered up with Coinbase, of course, because they're going to be introducing options to US citizens in the next quarter, which I'm extremely excited about. And they I think they already have options for international clients right now. You can even trade per there and and all sorts of crazy [ __ ] You can even say trade stocks as well, which is kind of cool. Uh, but ultimately there is a link in the description below that will award you 80% off of your spot trading fees. So whether you're accumulating stons, whether you're accumulating bitcoins, whether you're accumulating whatever the [ __ ] you know, if you're doing it on the spot. I do think that's kind of a no-brainer because well, it's just more money in your pocket. You're not you're not giving that money unnecessarily away to the exchange in a way that you would be for other exchanges. They will also award you 10% off your derivative trading fees as well. And other than that, we can go check out some Koshi market, see what they're going to be pricing in for the end of the year here. Now, I'm very curious to see what this is going to look like. I've actually not looked at this before the stream just yet. So let's see what the annual um uh uh uh marks are looking like right now. It is wow. This is actually very interesting. So what what is it giving the highest probability of right here? What what are they giving you the best markets on right now? Let's see. I guess it would be these ones here. Yeah. Um 85,000 to 90,000 bucks by end of year. That is what they are forecasting for the closure. But say relatively not not that interesting in terms of like how many people are actually betting on that. about 12 spot 70 um uh versus an 87 spot 8 no which kind of uh kind of high in my opinion but yeah let's see maybe a little bit more relevant for the short term let's go look at the monthlies here let's see what they're kind of forecasting for end of September above 90,000 bucks is now giving you almost a almost a 50 um uh buy in right there 47 and uh 47 as of right now so how high will Bitcoin get in September I probably wouldn't bet against that or sorry I probably wouldn't bet for that would have liked to have take these these ones right here but I wasn't paying attention Let's see what it looks like in October cuz I think that actually Oh, [ __ ] They don't have October markets up yet. Damn. All right, that sucks. Uh well, once October ones open up, I'll probably take some trades based off of that, based off the stats over here. Again, I do think that there will be a nice correction at some point, a double digit correction for Bitcoin. I just think it's going to be an opportunity ultimately. So, until then, um you know, I'll continue to do my daily DCA and continue to and continue to look at some super chats over here. is as far as Bitcoin goes. Still looking at this thing as uh well, dare I say good. Dare I say good. We will end on that note. As always, wish you the best. Take care. Much love. We will do another live stream on Wednesday and Friday. So, join in as always. If you want more of this content, like, subscribe. Until next time.