Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Depends on This

Bitcoin bottomed almost to the day that AI stocks put in their top in late June of this year. Since then, we've seen an astronomical, almost earthshattering a crypto bull run as the AI trade has completely fallen apart. And now, crypto is up against one of its biggest resistances. The 50week moving average and one of the most significant horizontal resistances on the entire chart. And while it's been stalled out there, the AI trade has been making progress with several key players putting in market structure breaks and becoming bullish once again. Is this a coincidence or is this a warning shot? If Bitcoin breaks through, I believe crypto and Bitcoin will be by far the better trade, and I'll explain why. But if Bitcoin stalls out and starts to drop while AI starts to take off, it's worth you being prepared now that there is a risk that AI could take the liquidity that's hopped over to crypto right back. Bitcoin is playing with fire. Let's get into it. So, first and foremost, let's just take a little look at this chart. As you can see, Bitcoin is right up in this red area that we've been going over on the channel since we broke out of 67K, saying, "Hey, this is going to be the big final boss." Okay? And as you can see, we were right. It's been in extreme struggle mode since we got into this red box, rejecting unilaterally all three times that we tried to break through. Now, it's worth noting we did put this squiggle up back at 77K before even the first break into that red box that we were expecting Bitcoin to come down and struggle there. So, that could just be exactly what we're doing. It's also worth noting that we are right here at the 50week moving average, which is widely considered the biggest orbiter of bare or bull market. As you can see, we were unable to close above this 50week moving average, but we are right at it, rubbing our nose up against destiny here. And if we can break through this 50week moving average and above this red box, I believe we are off to the races and crypto will go through an absolutely euphoric eruption of value. But it's worth noting there are also other signs of froth in crypto. I mean, hey, look, we're up an insane amount since we started this bull run just a few weeks ago. Look at this. We just had our biggest week in the trenches since the Trump week. Okay, you could see the degeneracy through the memecoin sector as a key indicator of froth across the ecosystem. We did almost as much memecoin volume as the week that Trump launched his famous memecoin, which was like an entire zoo full of monkeys throwing poop at each other. That's how crazy that week was. There's also caution in that altcoin open interest, meaning the amount of leverage people are taking out and trading altcoins with, has flipped the amount of OI or interest in Bitcoin. And each time this has happened in December of 2024 and of course in September of 2025, these have both triggered major sell-offs and essentially been the top. Now, it's worth noting this has been a gradual ramp as opposed to a very sudden ramp. So maybe it's a different behavior, maybe. But it's worth noting that this is very significant. And both times before we've seen major sell-offs coinciding with this metric. Most of all, we're seeing absolute crickets from the main trade of the last 2 years, which of course has been AI. And this is how SKHEX, one of the high bandwidth memory super trades over the last few years, the Korean company. Look at this chart as it breaks out of its bearish pattern in what we call a market structure break. You had a bearish pattern over the last few months and then it struggles to get over and boom, then it starts to emerge. This is what you call a market structure break and it's considered a very bullish pattern. Now, as you know on this channel, we've adopted a trader framework to pair with our narrative-based investing style. We've run up tens of millions of dollars both prior cycles that we've been doing this channel. But this traders mentality is what we're going to use to protect the money that we've made. And we've made a lot over the last few weeks. So, it's important that we treat these gains preciously and that we also are aware of all factors affecting our trade. Now, to counteract a little bit of this bare narrative, we have Will, our buddy Will Clemente over here saying almost a full month above the 50we EMA, not the simple moving average, but the EMA. This actually adjusts faster. He's saying, "Bitcoin has never set new cycle lows after reclaiming all of the weekly EMAs, 20, 50, 200, for several consecutive weeks. Effectively saying the low is in. But even if the low is in, we could still do a shimmy shake here and be really shaken out and have some dramatic downside before continuing upwards or just have a lot more trouble in cryptoland than we thought. Now, let's take a look at this chart, which I think is potentially one of the most telling of all. As you can see, the day that Micron put in this lower high here of pretty much the end of June, June 24th, we see Micron go up, crash, and then push up right after earnings before falling over. This was the lower high that let everybody know, hey, I think the party might be over locally for a bit. Okay, what did we see? For the next several weeks, Micron went into an obvious downtrend. And on that day, crypto put in its ultimate low, retested it, and has since been in a major uptrend that we know exploded violently with a catalyst that we've been covering. So the question right now is with Bitcoin at a key resistance that it needs to get above for the next leg of excitement and euphoria for the next leg up on our altcoins for the breakout that I believe if you're position in the right assets the revenue behemoths the Robin Hood gems the cycle relevant trades not only in the trenches but of course in perps and beyond. If you're in the right coins I believe the next leg up in crypto will be absolutely astronomical. But it's important to realize AI is still this transformative super cycle. But it's quite possible that despite these market structure breaks, we don't see AI be as crazy as before. And one of the reasons is that AI models keep getting so much better and so much cheaper. That the actual need to use AI for everyday tasks. Well, you can do some of the most advanced AI on your laptop for free now with Qen Max 3.8. And they just released a new version here, but this is something that you can run on a MacBook locally and use AI forever for free. You could also use it in the cloud for pretty dirt cheap. My point is that as AI advances, the need to put a ton of pressure and compute on those Neoclouds on those servers. Well, that narrative is currently up for debate. Now, I'm personally a massive AGI AI super believer. I believe that the demand for compute and chips and electricity to power this movement is way beyond what we have priced in and scoped in right now. I'm still very structurally bullish on the microns, the bloom energies, the SanDisks, the neoclouds. I actually still believe this trade has a lot more legs and that we are still early in a super cycle, but it might be a little bit slower. It might be less euphoric and I believe crypto is just generally far less owned and potentially has a more explosive short-term trade. But just cuz I have that opinion doesn't mean I'm going to trade all my funds on that opinion. I have my opinion. I do my research. But in the end, we trade the charts. And looking at these charts, I mean, this is an explosive return to bullishness. You have on Bloom Energy here, a double top, right? Then you have a downtrend. Then you have an attempt to get back over the bare market resistance here. And then you have an explosive reclaim. And now we're expecting some bullish price action. That is how market structure breaks work. Let's look at Nebius, one of my favorite Neoclouds. You can see it's broken out of its bare trend by getting over this 231 level that it just could not get over this entire time starting back in July. And it had this one little pop and drop and now it's finally getting over it. So, let's see if it holds here. If it does, we can hope to see some very bullish price structure build. That would be my assumption just looking at the charts. Again, if it fails and it goes back under here, we can see that the mission might have changed. But here you can see that there is actually an entry in where you have about a 6% or a 5% invalidation where I could say, "Hey, I think this thing looks bullish." And my invalidation is this 231 level. This is how we enter into trades with clear invalidation saying "Hey look I'm bullish on this AI stuff. Looks like it's popping again, but I have a clear level on the chart that tells me if I might be wrong." And we're going to use that level as a way to stay safe and make sure we don't get off sides buying into something that might crash for weeks, months, who knows how long. Bloom Energy just got added to the S&P 500. Massive fundamental piece of news. We look for it to stay above this 250 level. Again, you could buy into Bloom Energy and you have about an 8% invalidation where if it goes down that far, you'd say, "Hey, maybe this isn't the trade I thought it was." But as long as it's above 253, I like it. I think it's good for higher. Intel is actually coming right up to one of the biggest levels on the chart. This 106.9 level is the big level. And if it gets above it, I would expect for it to start running back up to that 134 level. This is how charts work. You can see even in the stock market, there are these big levels and they just tend to play very cleanly. And if it gets above here, I'd imagine that we'd start playing between this level. This is sound trading. And so if it gets above here, I'll take some sort of at the money-ish calls. Talk a little bit about how I'm trading TRDFI in a minute. I'm going to go long intel here. And no, it's not just cuz we're copy trading Nancy Pelosi. It's not only that, okay? It's not only that. There's also there's also chart stuff, okay? There's chart stuff. And finally, we have the Kahuna, the DRRAM Roundhill Memory ETF, which really has a bunch of these clean stocks. It has SanDisk, it has Micron, it has SKH Highix, it has a bunch of these memory related names. And as you can see, it broke through its first sort of bare market level here at 55. But really, the next big one here is at 62. And it hasn't really been able to get over this uh for the last few months. So, if it gets over the 62 level, that's a great invalidation point for your next trade into DRRAM, which again is more of a basket of exposure to memory names, and I think it's a great way to get exposure to this trend. So, it's something that I find more comfortable to hold as a main position because it gives me a basket of some of my favorite names from this space. If you saw our video on Neoclouds, you know that we're very, very excited and bullish about what AI is doing, the demand on robotics, the demand for all kinds of industries to lean into this. And so this is a trend that we are not sleeping on as it flips from bearish to bullish. Again, remember when things flip from bearish to bullish is some of the biggest opportunity that there is. Let's not kid ourselves. This does pose a risk to suck some liquidity out from Bitcoin at a time where if you're asking me, it really needs a push to the upside. It's worth noting that the vast majority of normies don't really understand AI. They think AI is just some Google thing that wastes a bunch of water. But if you're actually using this stuff, the tools have become insane. And in my opinion, we are a few advancements away from AI once again dominating mainstream culture and news and updates. People finding value in their everyday lives beyond coding. You can see here that Cororeweave is actually having to pay more on their debt than emerging markets. You know, emerging markets debt is very, very risky. And he's saying essentially the world thinks Cororeweave is unreliable. The market thinks Cororee isn't going to pay back its debt. They don't think these guys are going to stay in business. They think it's very risky. And to a lot of people, it shows how non AGI pill, how nonAI pill they are. They just don't think this stuff's going to be around. And Cororeweave is of course a neocloud. In the end, I think AI is still being wildly underestimated. And as Bitcoin hangs in the balance here, it's worth noting that our entire runup here has happened as AI has been collapsing. So if AI reverses the trend, we must be aware that there is a risk to our bags. We are not going to go in blindly. Okay. Now, as long as Bitcoin stays above that 71 to 73K range, I'm still very interested. I've not sold any of my pawns, and I'm up seven figures publicly on this position. Absolutely insane. Certainly one of the best public trades of my career. Absolutely monster. And this one is still the darling of Robin Hood. There's been a lot of competition with other uh launchpads launching on Salana like Stonk, which I also hold, as well as some on Binance Chain, but this is still the the golden goose to me because Robin Hood chain is the new emerging chain. It's still early in Robin Hood days and in my opinion, if Robin Hood continues to grow, this one seems like the easiest index on that chain, but I'm not fading pump. I still have Pump on my list to accumulate. I believe UniS swap is looking really good on the ETH side, as well as Athena, which has been absolutely cooking. As always, I'm very bullish hype. I hold quite a bit of hyperlquid strategies, which is their digital asset treasury on my stock market portfolio. And I actually think that if you're bullish Salana, the Forward Industries DAT has gotten absolutely creamed. I mean, look at how far down this came from their explosion of value back in 2025. They're down uh more than I think any other major DAT, 85%. So, this one is actually a dark horse for me uh that I'm going to accumulate a little bit of as part of my Salana exposure cuz this is the big Salana digital asset treasury. Of course, you know, we've been screaming about Zcash. We actually first covered it back in 2025 at about 40 bucks. Absolutely insane. And it's touched as high as 1250. Absolutely insane. Still looks very bullish. Of course, I'm trading publicly with a lot of altcoins. You can see my buys, you can see my sells, which again, I haven't sold any of this pawns position. Up $900,000 on this one position. You can trade with me live here on FOMO. And I've been actually dropping my thoughts on this coin all along the way here. So, you can see it. Trade with me using the link in the description and you can see all the stuff I'm doing on FOMO. Of course, if I'm trading some meme coins, those are all gambling. Pawns is the only coin I'm actually really confident in. But I think FOMO's cool because you can see my trading and my thoughts live. You can also see my trading journal here. t. But for real, it's just where I'm putting some of my realtime thoughts. Look, I'm very excited about what crypto is doing. I'm so happy that our beloved industry is not dead, but I'm not going to be blind to some of the risks that I'm seeing on the charts in reality. Just using my brain and surveying and saying, "Hey, look, is the darling of the world AI, this trade falling apart at the exact same time that crypto explodes, were these things related? And if they are, will the rebirth of AI create a dangerous solution for crypto as Bitcoin kind of hangs in the balance here? These are things that you must be thinking about. We're going to navigate it together. We're going to make money to the upside and to the downside. We're going to crush crypto and we're going to crush Tradfi and we're going to do it together. So, make sure to subscribe for more. Like this video, of course, check out some of my deeper coverage here as I'm sure you're going to love it. and I'll see you very soon in the next