…know it's confusing, if we do not make a higher local low, then it means that this breakout was a fake out and it was a bull trap and it means a lot of people are going to get hurt. So, you've got to think through your investment strategy. And I can tell you what is not working right now, lumpsum buying. What is working right now? Daily accumulation. because we know that even though we don't know exactly where the bottom is, we know that we're not at the top and there's opportunity ahead for us. And if we daily accumulate, if it doesn't make a higher low and it breaks down and makes a …
And I can tell you what is not working right now, lumpsum buying. What is working right now? Daily accumulation.
Contexto extraído por IA
Having said that, and I know it's confusing, if we do not make a higher local low, then it means that this breakout was a fake out and it was a bull trap and it means a lot of people are going to get hurt. So, you've got to think through your investment strategy. And I can tell you what is not working right now, lumpsum buying. What is working right now? Daily accumulation. because we know that even though we don't know exactly where the bottom is, we know that we're not at the top and there's opportunity ahead for us. And if we daily accumulate, if it doesn't make a higher low and it breaks down and makes a lower low, well then, you know, you can still buy this.
Transcrição Completa
Wow, what an incredible day on Wall Street we've had. And a couple big tech stocks finally hitting the predictions that I made months ago. The one I've got to highlight right out of the gate is Microsoft. It came up, it hit that 531. Matter of fact, it got right under 532. And I predicted that because it was a full measured move using Fibonacci theory and it finally came to pass. There was one guy in the comment section that must have asked me 50 times, "Is Microsoft still going higher, Josh?" The answer I kept giving is, "Yeah, I think so." Well, it hit the target. And if you ask me again, is Microsoft going higher? I have nothing to tell you and nothing to report because that target of 531 was based on fib theory and that is an area of rejection and so you want to be careful. Now, this is where I had planned on selling my last couple Microsoft leaps taken on the call out on this show when it was under 400. When back when it was 392, I said, "We're running up. We're going to hit 500 and we're going to hit 531 and that's going to complete the move." Well, we did it. One and done. I'm not talking about Microsoft today. I've got to talk about the most important stock on Wall Street that has been for the last three years, which is Nvidia. And I want to highlight some of the accomplishments. And I want to highlight something that I said in a video not too long ago on Nvidia. I talked about how to trade the trend for the highest levels of profit. And I've been seeing in the comments. People have been doing it. And I want to dial in an understanding on that particular idea. It's the idea that you buy at market close and you sell at market open. Now, you want to be careful because you can't just take one rule and try to fit it into Wall Street. Wall Street isn't going to respect that. But I'm going to teach you a little bit more about how to use that strategy today. And I'm going to give you some of the my view on Nvidia moving forward. What exactly do I think it's going to do in the charts in the coming days? And we've got to give you guys an update on Bitcoin. Bitcoin's been showing incredible resilience and it's still stacking green candles. And there's a handful of technicals that I want you to see. Now, I think that this move may be predicting that the bottom is in, but there's a couple things that we need to see it do from a technical chart perspective to confirm that it's entirely out of the winter. Now, it is doing something new, and I think it's why we've got to dial in and stay extremely focused to those charts so that we can follow them and not try to get ahead of them and get crushed by Wall Street. Welcome to Wall Street. This is the Stocks with Josh show. Thank you for taking your time and watching my video. I hope that as I teach about the charts, you can become 1% better today so you can take risk on Wall Street. Hit that like and subscribe. Okay, let's talk a little bit about Nvidia. Last Friday, it hit a brand new all-time high. And from the day that it IPOed, it has gone up from then till now just under 1 million%. It IPOed at $12 a share. And if you had dropped $1,000 in it on that day, you would have $10 million approximate today. Now, I want to run you some more statistics on Nvidia's success because I think it's fascinating. You say, "Well, Josh, I wasn't around back in uh the IPO of Nvidia." Well, let me just make this clear. If you had invested $10,000 back in 2006, you'd be worth $7.77 million today. And you're going to see that if you simply had invested in Nvidia at any given time, you would be cranking away on Wall Street. Some of you started uh your journey on Wall Street with around $10,000. Well, all you had to do was buy Nvidia back in 2006 and you would have $7.77 million. You could uh diversify that and live off of that for the rest of your life. If you had not participated in the IPO and when they became famous and their chip was in the PlayStation back in 2006 and it was hot, if you had not chosen to invest then but if you'd simply waited until the AI story broke in 2023 and you put in $100,000, you would be worth $1.7 million today, which would be lifechanging money for many of you. So that was yesterday and nobody really cares. The big question is, is Nvidia worth investing in today? And I've showed you a chart a couple times of when a stock becomes the most valuable company in the world. Basically, when do they become the number one market cap company in the world, similar to what Apple had been for over a couple decades. What does it do next? Well, I've showed you guys this in the past that it continues to climb, sometimes for decades longer. We saw that with Apple, but we also saw with Microsoft and even Google that they went up hundreds and hundreds of percentage points in the coming years. And I've also showed you that Nvidia since it became the world's largest company has only gone up 66%. Which could imply that it has only begun its journey. So if I did this video again in 10 years, it would be pretty sad if I told you that if you had invested a certain amount of money in Nvidia that you would then potentially become a millionaire. It's absolutely possible. But I want to talk to you guys about the actual strategy of investing in Nvidia because I ran the numbers. If you actually bought at market close and sold at market open in all of 2025, you actually would have had a higher return. It means you never hold during the day when things are choppy and sometimes consolidate or pull back. You simply hold overnight. And believe it or not, instead of having around a 38% increase in 2025, you would have gotten closer to a 53% increase. And so I want to take a minute. I want to take you into the Nvidia chart and I want to kind of show you and have you put eyes on what that would look like and how you might determine if that would be a working trade right now. And I also want to highlight that at the time being it's in an uptrend, but we did just make a brand new all-time high. So, we want to be careful. We want to make sure it's continuing to trend higher as we employ strategies for investing in Nvidia. And the strategy that I'm going to show you on Nvidia is going to have some carryover insights on what we actually need to see Bitcoin's chart do on a higher time frame in the coming days. So, let's kick things off. I'm going to show you Nvidia and then I'm going to show you Bitcoin. Let's get into those charts. All right. I want to show you that we are operating on Nvidia under a ascending line of resistance. It's hit it at least two times and respected it. one time it shot through it but then quickly fell back beneath it. Now we are right underneath that right now. And so if there is going to be an end to this current uptrend most likely it would be somewhere right around 244 which would be this line of potential resistance. Now I'm not predicting that. I'm just letting you know that that line is there. Now, if you're wanting to trade the trend right now, we've been in an uptrend for quite a while, but I would highlight to you the area of 227 because there is a quite a significant shelf right there. It took Nvidia quite a while to break above it and if we fell beneath it, then there would be a lot of overhead and a lot of sellers camped out at that 227 level. And I think that there would become some panic selling and that we could come all the way back to around this 206 to 210 area. Now I want to show you something on a smaller time frame. We're going to go to the 30inut chart and we're going to try to get a better perspective on the idea of buying at night and selling at the open or just general investing and understanding what the current trend is. Now obviously you can see that a couple weeks back we were back here at around 221 and we have been stairstepping higher ever since. Okay, stairstepping higher ever since. We consolidated briefly in that period of time but you can see that we are continuing to stair step higher this entire time. Now, what I want to show you guys is the idea of higher highs and lower lows as a general understanding of keeping an eye on the trend. Okay, so right here the price hit 221 and we then went the following day and ran up to 227. Now, this here was a higher low and this here was a higher high. Now this trend even though in this period of time it consolidated okay and that's more of the idea of it moving sideways okay because this higher low didn't get broken because ultimately it was a higher low again right here around 227 and it got a double tap on it. What did we go on to do? Well, we went on to make a higher high. And so this idea definitely works the best when we are already in a clearly defined stairstepping trend which is a series of higher lows and higher highs. And technically today we've made yet again a higher high. Now we got to keep an eye on our higher low because at the moment our higher low is right here at around $233. And so if we come and we break that low, right, and we've made a lower low, the only way that this remains in an uptrend, okay, the only way this remains in an uptrend is if after that it goes on to make a higher high. So what you want to watch out for is if we go on to make a lower high after making a local lower low. Okay? So, if we don't break back above this 238 up here and we end up making a lower high, well then the concern is that the trend has reversed and we got to watch out for a confirmation of that trend reversal and we would have that by making a lower local low. So, this is how you keep an eye on a trend. So, Nvidia's been doing very well and it's been showing a series of higher highs. People have been making money investing in this, but you've got to be committed to a strategy. You have to research the strategy. And I wanted you to see with your own eyes how to gauge whether or not the trend, the local trend is continuing to stack higher highs and higher lows or if it begins to shift and turn and how to recognize that. All right, let's get into some Bitcoin. Let's talk about what it's doing technically right now and what it has to do. I specifically didn't shoot this video last week because I really wanted to see what type of candle we were going to get at the close of Sunday night whether we were going to get a confirmation of what the market had just did or it may be a reversal. Well, it confirmed. So, it remains clearly in the camp of the bulls. Let's go talk about some of the most important technicals on Bitcoin right now. So, we're looking at weekly candles. And what we wanted to see Bitcoin do is we wanted to see it close two candles, weekly candles above this $82,814 level. And what specifically does that mean? Well, it means we've made a higher high. We talked about that with Nvidia. We've made a higher high. Now, this is a trend reversal. We have gone from making lower highs and lower lows to making a higher high. But this does not get confirmed simply because we make a higher high. Remember what I showed you on Nvidia's chart. The next thing that has to be done for a new trend to develop is for us to make a higher low. And that's what's going to convince a lot of people that the winter is over. So, let's take a step back and look at a few other things that Bitcoin has accomplished recently that seem to be a surprise. Now, you can see this little plus sign on my chart and these two moving average lines. One is yellow, one is red, and this is the 13 and the 49 moving averages. And what we're looking for right now is another yellow plus sign on the chart to confirm the golden cross on the local price action. I want to show you guys, as I've showed you in the past, for the lowest low to be in the books, you've got to get that plus sign right there. You got to get the cross below and then the cross back above of these moving averages to symbolize that the winter is behind us and that the lowest low has been recorded for that bare winter. You can see that we got that plus sign in the past. Now, I've pointed out to you guys a number of times that Bitcoin in the past when it makes this crossover, it spends another 3 months consolidating and building a base before it ultimately takes off. It does not just go straight up from there, right? It does take time. Now, I know that there's going to be people that are going to argue that this time is different because it is doing some things that are different. It never had a trend reversal this early. But I will tell you that Bitcoin's price action will take the time to make a higher low. it will establish that and give people another opportunity to buy before it goes on to make a a local higher high. So, that's what we're watching for right now. What would be the potential buy zone for that higher low? Well, I've talked about it before. 75 to 65 in this general range is where we'd be wanting to get a pullback and buy some more. Now, there's one more point I want to show you guys on the RSI on the higher time frame. As I said, we're looking for a higher low and then after that we need a higher high and then we will have full-blown confirmation of the low on Bitcoin and a new trend developing. But the next thing that we can't see at any point moving forward is we do not want to see this RSI line fall back beneath this white dotted line. If that happened, then there's a lot of people that would be screaming bull trap because there could be a lot of room for this to continue to go south and make a much lower low. Now, there is so much consistency in the Bitcoin chart. It's one of the most clear charts I've ever had studied and researched because it literally has had a strong repeating pattern. sometime to the exact day it's done the same thing over and over again on each cycle. It's got really really strong patterns. But the big message for those who are investing in Bitcoin right now is it is gone off script. Not 100% but it's definitely doing new things. It's never made a local higher high the way that it has this early in the game. And so that has to be respected and acknowledged. It's one of the reasons why when it originally dropped beneath $80,000, I told everybody I'm buying $1,500 a day because one, I know it's not at the top, and two, I want to accumulate this mean, which means I want to put as much money in this while the winter is occurring, never knowing exactly where the bottom is. I want to be in the biggest possible position that I can be in before it begins to make a brand new all-time high. Having said that, and I know it's confusing, if we do not make a higher local low, then it means that this breakout was a fake out and it was a bull trap and it means a lot of people are going to get hurt. So, you've got to think through your investment strategy. And I can tell you what is not working right now, lumpsum buying. What is working right now? Daily accumulation. because we know that even though we don't know exactly where the bottom is, we know that we're not at the top and there's opportunity ahead for us. And if we daily accumulate, if it doesn't make a higher low and it breaks down and makes a lower low, well then, you know, you can still buy this. Now, the last point I want to make about Bitcoin is this. In this entire winter, I have never been afraid, never had fear, never had extreme fear. the entire time I felt greedy as I was buying. And that's something that also is very different than the times in the past. The last bare winter bottom when we were between 15,000 and 17,000, every single buy I made, I felt like I was throwing away my money, like I would never see it again, that it was just a complete waste, that it could potentially be a complete waste. And I have not even slightly felt that feeling this time around. So, I'd love to hear from you guys. Do you think the bottom is in or is this local higher high a bull trap? Let me know what you think. Well, we got our prediction on Microsoft. I was very pleased to see that and a lot of people have been making money on my new strategy I've talked about on Nvidia and I hope that you got some benefit from understanding how to trade that trend with a confirmation on the daily time frame. I'll talk with you guys some more about this in the stocks with Josh Discord. If you want to come and learn the charts from me and trade alongside me multiple times throughout the week, then come check out my website which is the same name as my show www.stockswithjosh.com. Thank you for joining me and I'll see you guys soon. You think you trade alone? You don't. There's a committee. >> Sell. Sell everything. >> Hold. We're going to the moon. It'll come back. Double it. GET IT BACK. >> Four votes on every trade and not one of them has ever read a chart. So, we added a member who doesn't have feelings. >> Trust the level and take the trade. [music] Inside the Stocks with Josh Discord, the A+ scalp levels are on your chart [music] before the bell. When the breakout confirms, three targets show you where to lock in the win. Friendly pattern [music] shows you the fail price before you act. Plus the screener, the stop finder, friendly [music] options, and the trade tracker. The committee can stay, they just don't vote. Trust the level. Take the trade. Click the link below [music] to join the Stocks with Josh Discord.
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