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Well, the S&P 500 is about to hit all-time highs. Yet, the vast majority of stocks aren't at all-time highs. In fact, if you look over here, the S&P 500 equal weight, which is not the S&P 500. Instead, it equally divides allocations inside those 500 by basically taking 100% of a pie, dividing it equally by 500. That's as opposed to how it's done now, which is where you have a company like Nvidia that takes up a lot larger of a share inside of it. So tech skews the normal S&P 500 up. But look at this. The S&P 500 equal weight is on track for its seventh straight weekly decline. This is an erosion of market breath. And it is the worst erosion that we have seen since 2022. Now a lot of people look at 2022 and they say that was a hellish time. And I mean look at what we have on greed and fear. You have stock price breath. So the number of stocks making you know gains versus losers right at record lows right now you are considered to be in extreme fear. In addition to that stock price strength this is new record highs versus lows and massively negative extreme fear over here. So what's going on? Is this a really bad bare market signal? I mean think about it. the last two times we had these streaks. One of them was in 2022, the other one was in 2002. And both of those are a really important signal for the market. But why again can the S&P 500 basically be rallying to all-time highs and this economy seemingly via the S&P 500 be booming? Look at this. We literally just hit all-time highs just this morning. The NASDAQ 100's up about 80 basis points. It's been a rocket ship. We've been sending alerts buying the dip on the, you know, essentially where the Q's were when they were at 7, at 712, at 708, at 7:25, at 7:35. Be going crazy buying under that about 735ish level. Now the NASDAQ 100's at 762. We keep going while at the same time the RSP is sending us a signal that we haven't seen since 2022 and then what's before that 2022. So what does that signal potentially mean? Well, in my opinion, it is really bullish. That sounds crazy to say because when we think about 2022, we think of bad year. When we think of 2002, we think of bubble. But wait a minute. The market actually bottomed in 2002. And the market actually bottomed in 2022. That's weird. Think about it. Market started selling off in the dot bubble in about March to May of 2000 and in about March of uh actually closer to about January of 2022. And you had a good 9 to 10 months of a sell-off in both of those years. In both of those years, the RSP equal weight, which is an ETF that tracks the equal weight. In both of those years, you had sort of a prolonged down period. You can see that right here. You came down to about that 200 day moving average, bounced off of that, and you stuck low. Did have another brief bounce in 2023. And then if you go all the way back to you can't because they came out with RSP back then but anyway back in 2022 you would have had a similar draw down. That's the last time we had our large draw down on the equal weight. RSP hadn't been launched yet at that point but there was still an equal weight. So why is this happening and what is it signal to us today? Well, here's the thing. The 10-year yield literally just ran up to 534 just a couple trading days ago. That's the highest level that we've seen since 2002, which is also really bad. Why is it happening? Well, it's because we're having a culmination of shocks that are occurring at the same time. Look at these shocks. You have an oil shock. You have a rate/yield shock. I guess these would really be one and the same. And you have this economic shock that's going on. You could actually call this the corporate yield shock right here. So the rate shock is broadly mortgages, credit cards, car loans. The oil shock is what we're paying at the pump, diesel prices, gasoline prices, uh you know, jet fuel prices. The corporate yield shock is what you're seeing for companies that need to borrow to sustain the artificial intelligence buildout. Shock in yields there. We clearly seeing spreads even widen, especially amongst the junk bond territory, though it's nothing as bad as what we've seen in prior years. So it's still too early to say that there's a true corporate yield shock going on. We are just seeing rates rise there. And of course you have this economic shock which is actually a boon. Not only aentic artificial intelligence spending which I think is just getting set to take off but also the spending for the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom which of course is one of the canaries in the coal mine. If that spending stops it's over. It's that that's not good. So, this signal might actually be more of a signal that we could be close to a bottom just like we historically have been, which is weird because how could we be at a bottom when we're at the top? And that's where, in my opinion, what's going on is we are now pricing in and have already priced in just like we said three weeks ago on this channel. Three weeks ago, I made a video. I said, "This is peak fear." The NASDAQ 100 was at 700 a share via QQQ. It's at 780 now. We're over 10% higher now. That was peak fear. What did we price in? We priced in $109 per barrel of oil. We priced in almost five rate hikes. We priced in an Iran war that would keep going forever. And we priced in a Ukraine war that would keep going forever. Russia, Ukraine. And so what we find is that all of that pricing in has actually masked what's happening with the underlying economy. Look at this. The New York State Controller Office found via a new report that Wall Street firms this year rad in $45.9 billion or 51.3% more than last year. In other words, Wall Street firms are getting rich underwriting this AI boom via debt issuance, IPOs, or otherwise. fees that firms earn from underwriting have risen 68% in the first half of the year. That's on an increase in debt issuance of just 11%. So fees are going wild. But part of the reason fees are going wild is because these companies are making a lot more money. Specifically, the biggest AI plays. I mean, look at this. The world's largest 100 tech billionaires added $845 billion this year through September. That's insane. 845 trillion. Let me make sure I said that right. The world's 100 tech billionaires added 800 No, I I did say right. Billion. Okay, not trillion. That'd be crazy. The entire economy is like $25 trillion. is the US GDP right growing to like 26 27 so billion the the world's richest 100 tech billionaires added $845 billion so almost a trillion dollar in wealth just for a 100 people can you imagine that you imagine being in a room of a 100 people and all of them got richer by the tune of one trillion now up to $4.6 $6 trillion in total. Elon alone made up like 30 to 40% of that, which is pretty freaking crazy. The concentration of wealth that's going on, but it is being driven by artificial artificial intelligence. And that's where the reason I'm saying we're likely in a peak fear environment is because I find it very hard to see how all of these issues can sustain. either something breaks or we normalize by finding another pressure relief valve. Let me show you a few options of how this works. First, this is the projected yield curve for uh Federal Reserve hikes. So, basically the, you know, federal funds rate. The expectation is that between now and next September, we're going to see 3.3 more rate hikes. That works out to a total of 4.3 rate hikes. Previously, like a week ago, we were sitting at 4.8 before that weaker jobs report in total, right? 4.8 hikes in total. We are already seeing the odds of more rate hikes come down. That's already pulling some of that pressure out of the rates market. Okay, so that's the rates market. Yields on corporate bonds are going up because the whole yield curve is going up. But wait a minute, what's actually happening to the yields level today? Because oil's under 100 again, which was another pressure valve. Oil is now at 98 on Brent. And oh wow, what a surprise. The 10-year is under Kevin's call. That 527 will be roughly peak now. Yeah, intraday it's gone up to like 532 and stuff like that, but I think we're really close to peak yields. We're not off it yet, but I try to on this channel, I try my best to actually have the balls to make calls that are useful useful in the future. You know, I don't want to make you videos going, "Here's where, you know, I was right or here's where I was wrong, but then I was right over here and this that or whatever." Like, the the goal is how can we use this as useful information going forward. And in my opinion, these shocks that we have are already priced in. the oil shock, the rate shock, the corporate yield shock, the economic shock about this boom uh uh in terms of the inflation that this creates, all of these things are already priced in to the market. And so what happens if you now say and this is how we're at all-time highs, right? That's how you get all-time highs. So what happens when this fades? So what happens when this fades? Okay, so the oil shock fades away, right? What happens then when the rate shock fades and then the corporate yield shock fades, right? Oil prices go down, whether you get an Iran deal or you just reroute supplies for oil. When that shock goes away, the rate shock goes away. When the rate shock goes away, the corporate yield shock goes away. What are you left with? You're left with the economic shock, which was the positive one. like all these other ones. This was bad. This was bad. This was bad. You're just left with the good one. And that's how you get mega new all-time highs. That is how you get the euphoric rally. That's how you get the euphoric rally. This is why I'm bullish. Uh, you know, rally from peak fear three weeks ago into year end now. like we've been shouting out this very clearly on the channel, but we've also been talking about specific option calls. For example, there's one that we talked about on Friday in our course member live stream. Uh and it this is what the chart this is what we identified on Friday. We actually had the chart from Friday. This is the updated chart from this morning. But we identified that this particular play on Friday uh it was at 1656. So, we didn't have the luxury yet of seeing the bounce, but we saw it all the way down here on historic volatility going back about 6 months. And we're like, this play is a really good call option play. And these are the things we do in the course member live stream. And so, that was Friday. That option today on that ticker is up about 40%. We talked about it some more. Uh I'm going to calculate actually exactly what it is up right now. But we uh talked about it more this morning in the course member liveream. So you could go check it out there if you want. But what we were looking at was a December option. I won't say the ticker because I I can't give all the alpha away. Uh I feel like we're already really generous here. You could join us. Go to go to meet reinvest uh or sorry go to reinvest one.com or meet Kevin.com and join us in the reinvest membership. So, uh it was 179 178. No, 1780. Uh and we are at midpoint now. 1780. Uh yeah. Okay. So, that's up about 30 35% right now. Okay. So, now not quite 40, but still pretty pretty good on that option. Okay. So, what does this mean going forward? Well, first of all, we got to talk about the whole rising tide because RSP is really, in my opinion, the equal weight is just a signal of the 2002 and 2022 bottom. And I just explained how this top could actually end up looking like the bottom. Now we got to talk about why is it that companies in the equal weight are suffering especially companies like utility companies which are supposed to be feeding the whole AI boom right like isn't that supposed to be dominating uh right now when it's it's not a lot of small cops small cops small caps are doing poorly as well. We're going to touch on that in just a moment. I just want to quickly shout out go to mekevin.com check out our reinvest one super intelligence platform uh this platform if you join once you get lifetime access uh to the reinvest one uh inclusions which are everything that you get on our website everything we have to offer here the alpha membership the trade alerts you get that alpha report before the market opens up every day the trade alerts uh our terminal which is coming out at the end of the year it's going to be a research and stock terminal it's going to be really really incredible what we've got coming out with this. A lot of work is going into this and between now and the end of next year, we're going to be doing a lot more hiring than we already have to keep making the product better and better every single day, including our homes platform that's included in there. Uh all nine courses, all course member live streams, the Aentic AI for consumers module, and then that'll come out in Q1. And then in Q2, we've got the reinvest business blueprint, which will also include Agentic AI and business, which is incredible. So, check this out. This is uh you really want to, in my opinion, get in before 2027 because then we're going to have this charge you an annual fee, but if you get in before that, you don't pay anything. Uh you pay once and that's it. So, I kind of see it like I was joking this morning, it's kind of like social security where like the new people are going to pay for the data, the old people or for the the the new people who join and pay for the old people who've already been in. Uh but anyway, so uh you could be part of that social security group, you know, so you just got you just got to join us. All right, so let's focus now on this RSP issue. So here's the thing. the uh Russell 2000, so small caps are down like eight and a half percent from their August 14th record. They have been trailing the S&P 500. More than a third of Russell 2000 members cannot cover the interest that they have from that the very own interest that they're paying from their operating profits. And so a lot of smaller companies are getting hosed. Utilities are getting hosed as well. So companies are getting hosed on interest. Utility companies are getting hosed on interest. And utility companies, which are down like 13% in just the last 30 days, are getting hosed in part because the 10-year Treasury yield is so high. People buy utility companies because they offer you a dividend. But why take the risk on a utility company that's restricted in its pricing power by monopoly and oligopoly regulations? Why take the risk on them for a small dividend when you can get a risk-free rate at 5.29%. Right? On top of that, the KBW bank index is down more than 12% from mid August. Why? Well, partly because people think that Metamuse is going to help people move, not only cancel their subscriptions to smaller companies that are drowning under the weight of higher interest rates, but potentially also generate a deposit flight because Metamuse can look at maybe your rocket money or whatever you're using and look at your bank accounts and go, "Yo, you should be getting more yield here. Do you want me to just do it for you? Capital One's down 20% this year. Well, Fargo's down 14%. There's a lot. And that's because households have like $5.4 trillion sitting in checking markets or checking accounts, not checking markets. Uh, and so what's happening is this rejiggering under the surface of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. And that rejiggering can be painful in layoffs, but we're not seeing that yet. That's why the market doesn't care. the market broadly keeps going up is because they're not a red flag yet. We got ADP weekly this morning. We got two work weeks worth of weekly data. Both of them beat at over 22 and 23,000 per week, which is fantastic for the economic boom. But really, what you're finding is some of the biggest AI names are the ones that are winning in this boom. We bought the breakout on Broadcom just under 355. It just ran up to 378. Uh Nvidia, we've been calling for a breakout over here off of 227. It's breaking out. We've been calling for a cyber security breakout. These are all related to AI. It's been breaking out. I mean, you could look at a company like Crowdstrike. This is an insane breakout. Called for a breakout at 266 on Marll. And if you look right here, we literally went lineto line today. These are things you would hear and see in our alpha report. By the way, we release every morning. But 266 to 294. Look at that. It's great. So the problem is these are your AI beneficiaries. Cyber security. Jamie Diamond suggesting that cyber security uh concerns are now 10x what they used to be because of the mythos moment from cloud uh from Claude. So anthropic. So the artificial intelligence plays are winning. But everybody else is having a harder time catching up for now because the fact that we are now comparing to 2022 and 2000 suggests that we're really in a bottoming process for the rest of the S&P 500. And now what I want you to think about is what happens when software goes up, when yields come down, corporate yields come down, oil comes down, and all of these other names that have been lagging start rising. Now, you don't just hit all-time highs because Nvidia and AMD and Microsoft are going up, which, you know, are others we've been watching. Talking about the Nvidia breakout or sorry, the AMD breakout, I think it was at 466 we called it. The thing's at like 650 bucks now. Microsoft, I still think is going to 566 562-ish dollars. It's on its way to that after breaking out through 500. It's been up like every day the last week. And there's still room in these. But imagine what happens once this rally broadens out and you don't have peak fear on RSP, the equal weight, or you don't have peak fear on breath. And that breath actually goes back to expanding because oil and rates come down. Now you have a rising tide across the entire stock market. And if that goes on top of the artificial intelligence earnings we have already feeding the upper end and already pushing us towards all-time highs, then that's how all-time highs aren't really all-time highs. They're really like the bottom. Which is the weird It's the weirdest thing to say that now at all-time highs fed by the largest companies, we could actually be at a broader bottom similar to 22 and 2020 or 20 2002 and we get a rally off of that. Dude, the Q's are going to smash through 800 this year. Uh, now, does that mean there aren't red flags? Of course, they're definitely red flags. The underwriters for the economic boom, that's a big red flag. Uh, those are your anthropics and the open AI. What happens with them? Uh, oil, we've actually got to get oil to sustainably come down. Now, it's good that oil is quote unquote flowing again. Uh, that's great. We've been talking about this for a while, which basically even reduces the need for a deal with Iran, but all of this broadly pushes enthusiasm and and this rising tide environment. Now, could that also pick up companies like Oracle and uh some of the software plays? I think so. I think Palanteer is going over 200. I think you know even some of the left behind software companies in this last software push that we've seen can also start rising because the entire economy would benefit from these lower yields. So I'm pretty excited about that. Now, another thing to really pay attention to is this talk about Fed rate hikes, which we've already touched on. But if we get another weaker payrolls report, like how we got 29,000 versus the 84,000 expected and the prior two months were cut by 60K, the Fed's done. You'll get like a one and done. And any hint that we're one and done means we now have to unpric a whole another three and a half cuts, which means the market goes up even more. Now, look back for a moment to what happened all going all the way back to your 2002 era. If we go back to then, uh, the S&P 500 fell about 47% from March 2000 all the way to October 4th, 2002. So again, like I mentioned at the beginning of the segment, 2002 was the bottoming year. And it wasn't until the Federal Reserve really bailed the market out that you got off the bottom in about March of 2003. So between October of 2002 and March of 2003, you were pretty damn flat. And what happened in 2003 is the Fed came in and bailed out the markets. In 22, we obviously got our Fed hiking cycle and we got the S&P 500 dropping 18.7% and we came to rest in October. Look at that. Both of them bottomed out. 2002 bottomed out in October. Uh and 2022 bottomed out in October. Is it possible that RSP just bottomed out on Friday? What was Friday? Was Friday the first? Friday might have been the first. That Wait, today is already Oh, wait. No, Friday was the second. Wow, Friday was the second. Yeah, it's entirely possible and it would really align. So, that's kind of wild to think about. So this idea that the RSP uh weakness or the equal weight weakness only happens in bare markets. What if we look back and say uh this was a bare market for everything but the richest tech stocks and then when everybody else joins all of a sudden it's a clear light to the upside. I don't know. It's my view on the bull case. Maybe maybe I'm delusional on that, but remember I've got I've had multiple calls now on the cues that we would break through all-time highs multiple times. We made them in the alpha report. Join us at reinvest one.com. We hit hit hit hit hit. Uh so I'm really excited about that and I think it's going to keep going. Now I'm not blind to the risks that there are in the market, the two canaries, but the canaries are happy and singing right now. So I'm I'm less concerned. Now also I want to be clear that uh right around Oracle earnings on 911 I killed the data center bag holder thesis and that's when I called for around that peak fear time a data centers finding their bottom and actually enabling the hardware 2.0 0 rally that was back at the beginning like second week well September 11th so second or so week of um of September and if you look back at the data center place where we are relative to then so go back over here September 11th was right here on SpaceX 147 straight up from there we played this Oracle is still bobbing around where was September 11th September 11th was this red day right here. This is when the earnings it came out somewhere right around here when the earnings came out. So, this was in my opinion a bottom marker for Oracle. We're still at the bottom. So, we haven't come off of that, but it was a signal to the other plays as well. Like look at Nebus. Nebias right here. This was the little data center hole it was in right below the 216 line. Now, we're sitting at 252 and I think this is going to break up to 339 soon. Nebius has some real big potential to break out of this uh sort of equilateral convergence and I think it's going to smash right through this. So, I'm really excited about this. I'm a little bit more worried about Coreweave because they do have a lot of debt, but they may have also found their bottom right here at this time right around the September 11th to 14th zone right here. Uh, and so I've killed my my call of the data center bag holder thesis, which in fairness, these guys were suffering through like the first second week. It's been straight down on a lot. I mean, this is straight down right here. If you look on core, I think this is now behind us. So, think about that. Like, let's try to put all of this together because it's a lot. Peak yields, peak corporate yields, peak oil, peak Fed rate hike expectation, bottom on hardware data centers. Okay, all of that together means there's a whole lot of freaking upside. Now, is it possible the plague kills us all or Iran ends up getting a nuke and something goes kooky jookie and goes wrong? It's I don't it's not probable but I suppose there is always a tiny possibility but that just in full transparency gives my point of view on what's going on in this economy and why this all-time high isn't really an all-time high and this rally is just getting started. So, like this morning people were asking me in the course member liveream like, "Kevin Kevin, should we sell?" And and I think the answers to that should be really obvious. Uh, and so if you want to watch it, come join us. Join us over at Reinvest One. Uh, you get the full archive of all the course member live streams going back to I think like 2018 when I launched them. The terminal is launching by the end of the year. You get lifetime access. That's going away at the end of the year. All the trade alerts. Uh, you got the alpha membership, the the terminal, we mentioned the homes platform is in there. This is honestly a steal of a price. Uh, we're raising the price on this on Thursday because it's too low. We had to test the website first and there's still some things I want to change on the website, but uh but it's a pretty pretty incredible uh product. So, go check it out and I can't wait to show it when it releases. If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.