…h in its biggest business 10% growth in YouTube and also doubling in the cloud business. That's so important for you to have that kind of panic a 15 a 12% drop when you've got that much growth on a 17x P. It just doesn't make any sense. >> The weakness is creating a buying opportunity. It really is. >> So it's a good buying day for Google. And what I'm hearing from both of you is that that the AI bubble is not cracking, but the real numbers show this isn't a crack, it's more of an emotional reaction. And I think Joel, you touched on something that we started to hear earlier …
The weakness is creating a buying opportunity. It really is. >> So it's a good buying day for Google.
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The weakness is creating a buying opportunity. It really is. >> So it's a good buying day for Google. And what I'm hearing from both of you is that that the AI bubble is not cracking, but the real numbers show this isn't a crack, it's more of an emotional reaction.
…ive. Its forecasted economic profit will still be negative. And so why would you want to invest in a company like that? There's a lot of hype around it. But if you want to invest in AI, there's certain parts of the value chain to get into. Coreweave is in the exact wrong one. And that's why you get out of that name if it's in your portfolio. >> Yeah. Right now there's a lot of negative hype around Coree. This is the stock that really kind of was the poster child of the AI tumble the last few weeks. Coreweave was down, you know, 12% day after day after day. It really saw a huge…
Coreweave is in the exact wrong one. And that's why you get out of that name if it's in your portfolio.
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What's the first company that you are staying away from right now? >> So, Bridget, when you look at the value chain, there are good places to be. We've talked about that. And there's bad places to be. And the worst place to be is where Cororeweave is. They're getting squeezed because they have to pay top dollar for all the equipment to all the chip makers like AMD, Nvidia. But they also don't have the supplier power where they can say you have to use our data center and you can't use somebody else's because there's plenty of other places to go. They don't have their own AI frontier model. So it's not like someone has to use coreweave because they're at the cutting edge. And so they're getting squeezed by all the bigger players and they're the ones that you know when we see a reported single low singledigit return on assets of 2 3% that number is actually correct from a uniform standpoint. This company is not earning its cost of capital. Its economic profit is negative. Its forecasted economic profit will still be negative. And so why would you want to invest in a company like that? There's a lot of hype around it. But if you want to invest in AI, there's certain parts of the value chain to get into. Coreweave is in the exact wrong one. And that's why you get out of that name if it's in your portfolio.
… 10 12% return on assets. Cipher Digital in 2026 is forecast to generate a negative 20% return on asset. That means that literally for every dollar in the business, they're losing 20 cents. And that just points out the issue of like I mean just because you slap on the term AI neocloud or AI exposed does not mean that you're a buyer uh buying a recommendation even if you're exposed to the infrastructure buildout. You really have to have that discretion about understanding where they are in the ecosystem when that when that means they are in terms of exposed to profit pools or not. >> Yeah. the the I know the first question many of our viewers have …
just because you slap on the term AI neocloud or AI exposed does not mean that you're a buyer uh buying a recommendation even if you're exposed to the infrastructure buildout.
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>> All right, let's move on to that final name on your do not buy list, a stock to avoid in this AI story right now, Rob, what's that stock? >> Yeah, and that's Cippher Digital. Um, so Cipher Digital, much like Coreweave, right? To Joel's point, I mean, the whole entire idea of these companies is they're they're running a commodity, but the funny thing about Cipher Digital is it used to be called Cipher Mining. And the reason why it used to be called Cipher Mining is because it used to be a Bitcoin crypto miner. And when you look at it, it's been so funny watching all of these crypto miners that their only genuine asset at the end of the day was they own GPUs and they had some power contracts and they go they went, "Well, wait a second. We don't really know where Bitcoin is going. It dropped from the highunds to 60. Now it's around 80. Who knows? But I remember somebody else who needs a lot of data center compute. Oh, that's right. Well, let's just rebrand ourselves as a NeoCloud and then we'll be able to sell all of our capacity to somebody else to be able to have them use it." And that's exactly what's happening here. I mean, but the issue and what's going what's going on for this business is the exact same problem as Coreweave. You've got a company that effectively is selling a commodity. The hyperscalers, they have a whole bunch of genuine assets. They have software that they're selling on top of this. They have technology in terms of how they're managing all this. The Neoclouds are selling a dumb box. Um, right? This is what the um the digital realies of the world, the Equinex of the world have been doing for decades. And those companies have been 3 to 4% return on asset businesses every single year. And so to Joel's point, I mean, for Corewave and for Digital Cipher, do they need to go to zero? Not necessarily as long as they're thoughtful about their capital structure, but these are not companies that you ever going to see generate 8 9 10 12% return on assets. Cipher Digital in 2026 is forecast to generate a negative 20% return on asset. That means that literally for every dollar in the business, they're losing 20 cents. And that just points out the issue of like I mean just because you slap on the term AI neocloud or AI exposed does not mean that you're a buyer uh buying a recommendation even if you're exposed to the infrastructure buildout.
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$400 billion dollars lost overnight. Is this crack in Google the first sign of [music] a crack in the AI bubble? Joining us today is Rob Spivey and Joel Litman with Alimemetry Research to look at the real accounting behind Google and many of the hyperscalers to give us a better idea of what is going on here. Guys, we're going to cover three stocks to buy and two to avoid. I love this series we do with you, but we have a lot to cover today on one of the biggest stocks in the market. It's what everyone is talking about. A massive drop in Google. Rob, what is happening? Why is Google really just tumbling so much today? Again, a 12% drop in a company of this size is not something the market sees every day. >> Yeah. Right. I mean, 400500 billion dollars of um you know, of of market capitalization wiped off the table. That's basically right. You wiping out you know, United Healthcare and a CVS all at once in terms of what you're wiping out. It's wild. So, I mean, if you really dig in and you look at it, and this is what's interesting, because if you wanted to use this as a reason to point for the AI bubble is bursting, you you just clearly didn't look at the numbers. Um, if you just kind of go through and jump across this. So, one, um, the the big two misses that I caused everybody to panic were one, top line for Google search, which missed by about a billion half dollars, and topline for YouTube ad revenue, which missed by about $200 million. First off, right, that is not what when you think about the AI business for Google, that is not the AI business. In fact, if you look also importantly, the search business still grew by like 15 plus%. And YouTube revenue still grew by 10%. So, this isn't the idea of this business is being wiped out. It is just basically the glide path is a little bit slower than people thought, but the way more important conversation if you really want to talk about what happened for Google was what happened in Google Cloud. Google Cloud beat by over a billion dollars, 1.6, and the number for the actual revenue growth for Google Cloud was 100% year-on-year growth. So, if you really want to point to the story into the narrative of what's going on from the true AI story, clearly what you're seeing is everybody still desperately wants to more use more AI and get more cloud access. And they are ramping their spending with Google. And look, not to put this out of the side, obviously the golden goose for Google that is the greatest business that anybody has ever created is truly search, but the story here is not that search is actually declining. This the story here is sorry, search grew by 15% this year. While the business that is exploding and going to power the next revolution, AI boom, the Google cloud business is exploding. So just to talk about that idea of that that's the case is just to put it totally put it aside. That's not the story. And in fact, there's a lot of really positive things to look for Google >> Bridget. One of the big problems is that the accounting is so difficult. The the accounting punishes innovation. And so investments like in that Google has in SpaceX were a big reason the company missed on earnings. That's a non-cash item. These marktomarket rules are the kinds of things that Buffett has talked about and said they don't make sense. All they do is create volatility and that's one of the reasons they missed earnings. Another one reason they missed earnings is because R&D ramps up. And still a problem in the United States is R&D is treated as a as a expense in the period spent not as an investment. Even in in Europe in other parts of the world they treat R&D a portion of it as capitalized and say oh this is really an asset for the future. Now it could be a bad asset but don't call cost goods sold. Don't call SGNA. And that's what is happening. And so a lot of this miss is because of these items. Lastly, I'll bring up everyone's been talking about this negative free cash flow of all these companies and how scary it is. But in the case of Google, again, they're reporting negative free cash flow, not because their operating cash flow is down, but because their investments are up, because they know they're making money handover fist in their incremental returns on the investments they're making. And so everything is still very, very bullish for this call for Google, even though some of the headline risks people have jumped on. And one last thing bridge to add to this is I mean the laughable thing is Alphabet is a company that trades at a as we look at it a 17 times PE with 15% growth in its biggest business 10% growth in YouTube and also doubling in the cloud business. That's so important for you to have that kind of panic a 15 a 12% drop when you've got that much growth on a 17x P. It just doesn't make any sense. >> The weakness is creating a buying opportunity. It really is. >> So it's a good buying day for Google. And what I'm hearing from both of you is that that the AI bubble is not cracking, but the real numbers show this isn't a crack, it's more of an emotional reaction. And I think Joel, you touched on something that we started to hear earlier this week when we got our first glimpse at Anthropic's earnings with their S12. We were hearing very similar things about a lot of fears about the amount of spend that's happening and that spend. Do you also see the spend that Anthropic is doing as more of an investment? Joel, >> I'm an accountant. accounts are very conservative people and so whenever there's some kind of thing you can take a charge for or take an expense for they'd rather do that and then let it roll into earnings and income down the road. So when you look at the negative80 billion net income line, when you do the adjustments to get back to what was really cash, they actually made money on 16 billion of revenue. They still had maybe a billion to$2 billion of real profitable income, but these marktomarket and these other adjustments made it look like Anthropic had a horrible horrible uh uh S1 when in fact no, it it's producing. I'm not saying it's as strong as Google. In fact, Anthropic lists Google as one of its main suppliers who Anthropic pays a ridiculous amount of money to for operating Anthropic. And so when you think of those things, you say, well, again, another reason to like Google because they're in the right part of the value chain versus Anthropic, which I'm not jumping on anthropics IPO. I'm just saying it's nowhere near as bad as people say, and it is, I would say, very positive for the industry as a whole. Quite frankly, the the narrative of Anthropic's profitability or even OpenAI's profitability being the important thing that you need to look at here is irrelevant because those companies are not actually where the real profit pools are and the real profitability in terms of deciding whether or not we actually are going to see the AI boom continue or not. It really matters to come back to the conversation that we started with Bridget as to whether or not the hyperscalers are profitable. That's what matters in terms of figuring out if the boom is going to go on or not. >> Yeah. And you've already said Google is profitable. Google is growing and it's a buying opportunity where the stock is today after the big drop that it saw on Thursday. You both have three stocks to share that are big buys right now tied to that hyperscaler growth and profitability you were just talking about. We're going to get to those three names, but also talk about two names in this AI story to avoid because there are plenty of players in the AI buildout that are not good investments for the retail community to be looking at right now. and the two of you will look at from an accounting perspective why investors want to stay away from these two names and maybe some others like them too. So, we're going to get into those which is just as important. I also want to share that Rob and Joel are diving into how investors can get paid during this AI buildout and that's what their latest report is all about. It's on Elon's shadow trust and really the $4 billion dollar in dividend payouts that investors have received over just the last year of dividends from the companies that are building out this AI story. It's really a fascinating way to look at investing in the AI buildout story and get paid and really get a piece of all of the money that is going into this sector right now. Um, this report is fascinating to look at and they cover five names in there that are going to help investors get a piece of that shadow trust Elon and other hyperscalers are building out right now. So, scan the QR code, click the link in the description, and you can get a special offer for that report and access all five of those names and the strategy behind getting a piece of that shadow trust right now and getting paid during this AI buildout as an investor. Again, that QR code and the link are in the description. Okay guys, let's get into this list of stocks today. We have five to cover. We're going to start with the three to buy. What's the first company that you're looking at in the AI buildout? >> Well, the first one I'm going to mention Microsoft. Microsoft and because of Azure and because of cloud and because Microsoft is also in the same game as Nvidia and AMD, meaning they're also making chips. They're they're made by TSMC, but they're designed by Microsoft to help build out their space. So I would say for so many reasons Microsoft is occupying the right places of the AI value chain. The market is not pricing in all those things. I think the the headline of co-pilot's not doing as well is not using as well. They don't realize that it doesn't need to be when they've got everything else in the rest of the value chain that all of their co-pilot competitors have to use like Azure. It's a wonderful situation for Microsoft and that's why it's one of our best long ideas right now. Yeah, Microsoft has been at such an incredible growth story this year after the big drop it saw early on in the year. It's recovered wonderfully, up 35% in just the last 3 months. But I I guess that's the question for investors. Is there enough strength here to warrant paying the premium if you are not in Microsoft and looking at adding it or if you're looking at growing your position? Is now a good entry point time um based on the revenue this company's bringing in and the future growth that it could have? Can you still add Microsoft after this recovery and make a profit? >> Oh yeah, absolutely. And if you just look at it from the perspective of first off that 35% growth in Microsoft was after, if you remember earlier this year when they were talking about investing and expanding capacity, everybody panicked. And then what happened? They expanded Azure capacity. And lo and behold, what happened after they expanded Azure capacity? They blew the doors off in terms of Azure revenue just like Google is doing for Google Cloud revenue right now. And so this is this this cycle that happens constantly. It's you know we have the nashing of the teeth about should they be spending as much of investing as they are and then they turn around and that and each quarter they say I mean I I feel like every single time that we've been on here I always use the same reference Bridget about Sati Nadella. Satia gets on every single call and goes if we had more Azure capacity we would have more Azure revenue and they are doing a great job in terms of adding more Azure capacity. And so that means you are going to have continue to have this growth. Again, Google just to come back to this idea 100% growth in Google cloud revenue and Azure is pointing similar numbers which is why you know Microsoft had such a good number in this quarter too in terms of their results. This is all a sign of the fact that we have tons more growth in the cloud business for all these players and certainly Microsoft too because the mic the market is not pricing in what Microsoft is going to produce in earnings growth. When you look at the news that came out earlier this week about the 60,000 um buyouts, obviously they're not expecting to have 60,000 employees accept those buyouts, but all that is a lot of what we talk about regularly when we talk about Microsoft, which is when you look at Microsoft especially of the four hyperscalers, Microsoft this is the most true for for Microsoft a huge ton a huge part of their expense line is employees, it's coders, it's software engineers and everything else. And when they look at more and more AI benefit from that, that doesn't necessarily mean, of course, they're trying to facilitate, you know, basically getting more people lean, but it also means more revenue per employee. They don't need to hire people along with getting rid of people. And all that means an ROA lift that the market just is not pricing it at current levels. >> Bridget, the fact is a bunch of your peers out there in the media are out there saying Microsoft is cutting headcount because they're burning cash and they're running out of money. The fact is Microsoft is letting employees go because they don't need them and they can still be super productive with the employees that are left. That's the real reason. >> Yeah, we're talking about the the financial impact on the company and whether this is a good investment, not whether it's a good or bad thing that all these people are losing jobs. That's not the debate in this video today. Although I know there's plenty of people who have strong feelings about lots of things around that. I I think another theme is coming in play here with both Google and Microsoft and that's headlines. headlines play such a role in investor sentiment and market sentiment about these companies and oftent times it's not looking at the fundamentals, the real accounting numbers, which is why we love having the two of you on the show to really look at the numbers and what this means for investors, the things that you should be paying attention to, not necessarily every other headline that changes these stocks up or down uh throughout the entire year. So, a good reminder to look at those fundamentals. I want to move on the list because we've got more stocks to cover here. So we started with a massive hyperscaler in Microsoft. What's this next company that you're looking at as a buy right now? >> Yeah, the next company you would never think of a story about AI, but it's Generrack, right? Take GNRC. And so Generrack is really interesting because legistorically you think of them as if you have a home somewhere in the north, Bridget, I don't know if you and uh you know in in uh in South Dakota do, but I in Maine have a generator and it's GenerRack cuz Generrack has a dominant position in the market for uh for at home generators. But people don't realize they also have a commercial business. And historically the reason why nobody has thought about that is because the commercial business has been less profitable than the home business. The home business, they're a monopouist. they own 70 80% of the market. There's a lot of competition in terms of, you know, standby power and so historically there's been more competition and so it's been a lower margin business. But what's really interesting that's happened is what's happened for them recently is very similar to what's happened for Genova. So Genova, which we've talked about here before, part of the big story that's made them so profitable recently, is they used to basically make all of their money by the service contracts that they get for 20 to 30 years after you install a turbine in a power plant. But they basically gave away the turbine itself practically for for zero cost or not even a loss leader for that meaning they had no profit in it or it was a slight loss leader. Well for Generrack they had to compete with all these companies for the same way. So they were looking at the same thing. But now you're in a situation where Caterpillar is 3 to four years backlogged. Generrack is also several starting to grow their their backlog though Generrack has capacity in the commercial space and so but Generrack is actually getting pricing power now and they just in the last year completed a massive expansion of capacity for their commercial business to benefit from all this. So you've got this setup where the business is structurally more profitable in terms of the commercial business and they're adding capacity to it. Well, the residential business is being as amazing as it was. And all that points to us to reason to be really excited about Generrack and it's especially telling because this is a company that the as reported metrics hide how profitable it is. Right? Uniform ROI is actually was 16% last year, not the 3% that it is on an as reported basis. It's forecast to rise to like 20 plus% this year. And so we're seeing a lot of stuff because of what's happening for the AI buildout still being lasting and durable. and all these all these hyperscalers need that power. Generrack is going to be a big winner for that. >> Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about what we've seen in the price action for Generrack because it is very interesting. There's enough stocks out there that have seen that peak in that June July time frame and have had a downtrend since then. And this is another one of those similar charts. And so I want to know if is it just general market sentiment and trends that had the stock moving lower the last few months? Is is the price action really closely tied to the AI story and that's why we saw it it drop or is there something else going on in the market that has the market reacting the way it has in the last few months to the stock? >> Yeah, I mean you hit on it Bridget the primary issue has been the narrative out there that the AI infrastructure boom is over. Um, and a lot of that, right? I mean, if for everybody as as you watch this, if you wait about 5 days, um, because I don't know what happens next Tuesday, but I think there's some important that happens next Tuesday that's been driving a lot of the air the narrative in terms of the AI boom, things are probably going to get resolved because the fact of the matter is a lot of this has been people worried going into the election. Oh, we see a lot of nashing of the teeth about, you know, the AI buildout and will politicians slow this down? And when we get to the other side of that, you're going to see the other story, which is Azure revenue that's going through the moon, Google Cloud revenue that's doubling year-over-year, Amazon Web Services revenue that's exploding, Oracle's insane backlog. That all means all this is actually going to get built because the private companies that have the demand are going to find ways to build it. But the solution for how you get it built is to lower political temperatures. you build it behind the meter power solutions like what Generrack can offer so that you don't have all those political that political friction and that's what we're going to see play out. So yeah, this is a lot this is entirely narrative driven. It's not about anything fundamentally slowing down for the business. Google wouldn't be beating revenues for Google Cloud. Azure wouldn't be beating revenue expectations for Azure for Microsoft. That's the true story going on here. >> Yeah. So interesting to see that and we'll talk a little bit more about that election impact down the road with the with some of the next ones we're going to talk about. But let's get on to the third stock on the list to keep this rolling. What's the third buy on your list today? >> Well, Bridget, we like AMD and we like it for some of the same reasons that we liked it back in Barrens in January of 2015. Uh it was the first time that Rob and I were quoted in Barrens magazine and Barren did a piece on AMD and they did a bull and bear case and we were very much bulls. Stock was only $2 at the time, very cheap and what they were missing was the same thing as today. They didn't understand how truly profitable AMD was. So people thought, "Oh, they don't have the money. They're going to go bankrupt." We said, "No, they're not going to go bankrupt. They have more than enough cash flow." We love what the CEO, Lisa, was doing. We said she was on top of things, that she was fixing things. We could see it happening in the uniform accounting. You could not see it in the GAP accounting. And we were all in by AMD. Now today, we're looking at AMD again. We're saying the same thing is happening. You look at any major database, the return on assets of AMD looks like 3 or 4%. when in reality it's probably quadruple that maybe quadrintuple that the databases are saying that and I mean all the major financial database are saying it's still only a 3 4% return when in fact it's much higher so we like AMD for those reasons AMD is chips are getting used so heavily into all of these hyperscaler centers because they're realizing they don't need Nvidia's top top chip for everything most of the stuff I do doesn't need the highest level compute right I'm using AI all day long I'm sure a good couple of AMD chips will satisfy whatever comput needs I have and the data centers realize that. So AMD is filling that that space in of uh of chips that they need. So for all those reasons, AMD is not getting the credits due. It looks inexpensive relative to its opportunity. It's another great W for us. Uh >> I love hearing you're the second person in the last month I've talked to who got in on AMD at around $2. Uh what a good win story to just for a track record of looking at companies and getting in on them very very early. I think every investor would have loved to get in on AMD at $2, but looking at getting in on AMD today, they're wondering, can they get that same, you know, massive return that you got? Uh, getting in on AMD at $2. If they enter AMD today, can they still get that huge return another 10 years down the road? Do you believe that's still possible even at the entry point that we're looking at today for AMD? >> I don't know that you're going to get a 21,000% return on AMD again. Um so I I will be Joel and I will be the first to tell you probably not that kind of return will you get on AMD. Uh but when you look at AMD and this is the important thing they have two benefits here. One is people are understanding that they don't need just Nvidia chips. There's another side of what's actually going on that benefits AMD too and it's that AMD is the only one of uh the chip makers who truly sits on both sides of GPUs and P and CPUs. training AI models you need GPUs for, right? For training the the latest cloud model, training the latest OpenAI model, training the latest Gemini model, you need GPUs for execution on actually then using the AI models, a lot of that starts to move to CPUs. And so there's this really big question of we've been to a point for the last few years where in data centers we moved to four, five, six GPUs per per CPU inside the density, which has been great for um for Nvidia. What I start to see happen is people saying, "Well, actually, we can introduce more CPUs back into the mix." Um, and if you do that, AMD wins in spades because AMD also has the integration between a GPU and a CPU that it can do because it makes both of them. And also just in general, it doesn't mean that we're going to need less GPUs. It means we're going to need same many GPUs as we are now, but we're going to have far more density of CPUs next to them for actually handling now the compute for um for actually using it. And AMD benefits from both those things. And if you look at it, the market is not pricing that second leg of the story. The market's kind of embracing the first leg of the story, which is yes, they are effectively taking market share from Nvidia, but not that second leg, which is and also we're going to use a lot more of the other side of their business, too, which what's really interesting. >> Yeah. One quick follow-up question. We've got two other to get to, and these are just as important. We're going to talk about the two to not buy. But I had another analyst who's very bullish on AMD had a little hint towards a concern that even though AMD's new product launch has everyone very excited and and it helps it compete with Nvidia better that there may be so many contracts already inked with Nvidia that are multi-year deals that will there be room for AMD to fit in even though Nvidia has already secured some of these contracts. Any concerns for you there? I mean this comes back to the idea of if you believe that we are going to have the massive ramp in demand for AI that we are going to have. There's a lot of room at the table for everybody. This is not a fourperson table that we have five people fighting for seats for. This is a 12person table of which maybe six of those seats are full. There's a lot more growth to be had here. This is not a structural issue in terms of whether or not AMD can find a place to feed the trough because Nvidia is getting uh fat and happy. >> Yeah, very good. there's a lot more room at the table, but not every company is qualified to sit at that table. And those are the next two names that we're going to get to. And uh there's also a way for you to get some of the the food off of that table, so to say. And that's by earning an income from some of these companies that are all a part of building out this AI story right now. Again, I want to remind you about that report that Rob and Juul at Altimitry put together. Again, using their accounting knowledge, they found five companies tied to the AI buildout that really are part of the XAI buildout 2 of building out the infrastructure for the entire AI story. And there ways that you can get paid. In just the last year, these five companies have given out over $4 billion in dividends to investors. And you can get a piece of that right now. They're calling the report Elon Shadow Trust. And uh there's a way for investors to make up to $12,000 a month using these kinds of income stocks that are tied to the AI buildout story. It's a fascinating concept on how to invest and get paid and really get a piece of this AI buildout as investors. So scan the QR code, click the link in the description, and you can get that special report with the five different names that they are looking at. They also spell out their strategy of how to get paid each month through this form of investing in the AI buildout story. It's a great way to look at it, but that's not what we're looking at today in this video, guys. Now, we are going to look at the two stocks to avoid in this AI story. What's the first company that you are staying away from right now? >> So, Bridget, when you look at the value chain, there are good places to be. We've talked about that. And there's bad places to be. And the worst place to be is where Cororeweave is. They're getting squeezed because they have to pay top dollar for all the equipment to all the chip makers like AMD, Nvidia. But they also don't have the supplier power where they can say you have to use our data center and you can't use somebody else's because there's plenty of other places to go. They don't have their own AI frontier model. So it's not like someone has to use coreweave because they're at the cutting edge. And so they're getting squeezed by all the bigger players and they're the ones that you know when we see a reported single low singledigit return on assets of 2 3% that number is actually correct from a uniform standpoint. This company is not earning its cost of capital. Its economic profit is negative. Its forecasted economic profit will still be negative. And so why would you want to invest in a company like that? There's a lot of hype around it. But if you want to invest in AI, there's certain parts of the value chain to get into. Coreweave is in the exact wrong one. And that's why you get out of that name if it's in your portfolio. >> Yeah. Right now there's a lot of negative hype around Coree. This is the stock that really kind of was the poster child of the AI tumble the last few weeks. Coreweave was down, you know, 12% day after day after day. It really saw a huge downturn the last few weeks. You have been pointing out why there's a risk in this company for a while. This isn't a new a new call for you to say avoid this stock, is it? >> We've been saying it for quite a while, but you know, we do have people say, "Hey, has it gotten cheap enough?" No, it has not. It has a lot further to go down than it has to go back up in in any stretch of the imagination. So, no, even at these much lower levels, still stay out. Yeah, that's my other question is I've heard some people predicting that companies like Coreweave or some of these Neocloud companies that are investing all of this capital right now to build these data centers for rent could go to zero someday. There's pred predictions that these companies will just go to zero and will will be gone and and not companies that we even are able to talk about a couple of years from now. Do you think that is a possible future for Coree? We found a way that large enough companies can remain survivors and survive a long time just ekking out a return that's just enough to cover their debt costs. It's possible they survive. That just doesn't mean because they survive you'd want to own the stock, right? We want successors and winners, not not not just survivors. Um and so, you know, there is a a need for what they're doing. They just don't have any pricing power on the buy side or on their on their supply side to to manage it. So, could there be other companies that we hear about today and that are no more? Yeah, of course. Of course there are. >> All right, let's move on to that final name on your do not buy list, a stock to avoid in this AI story right now, Rob, what's that stock? >> Yeah, and that's Cippher Digital. Um, so Cipher Digital, much like Coreweave, right? To Joel's point, I mean, the whole entire idea of these companies is they're they're running a commodity, but the funny thing about Cipher Digital is it used to be called Cipher Mining. And the reason why it used to be called Cipher Mining is because it used to be a Bitcoin crypto miner. And when you look at it, it's been so funny watching all of these crypto miners that their only genuine asset at the end of the day was they own GPUs and they had some power contracts and they go they went, "Well, wait a second. We don't really know where Bitcoin is going. It dropped from the highunds to 60. Now it's around 80. Who knows? But I remember somebody else who needs a lot of data center compute. Oh, that's right. Well, let's just rebrand ourselves as a NeoCloud and then we'll be able to sell all of our capacity to somebody else to be able to have them use it." And that's exactly what's happening here. I mean, but the issue and what's going what's going on for this business is the exact same problem as Coreweave. You've got a company that effectively is selling a commodity. The hyperscalers, they have a whole bunch of genuine assets. They have software that they're selling on top of this. They have technology in terms of how they're managing all this. The Neoclouds are selling a dumb box. Um, right? This is what the um the digital realies of the world, the Equinex of the world have been doing for decades. And those companies have been 3 to 4% return on asset businesses every single year. And so to Joel's point, I mean, for Corewave and for Digital Cipher, do they need to go to zero? Not necessarily as long as they're thoughtful about their capital structure, but these are not companies that you ever going to see generate 8 9 10 12% return on assets. Cipher Digital in 2026 is forecast to generate a negative 20% return on asset. That means that literally for every dollar in the business, they're losing 20 cents. And that just points out the issue of like I mean just because you slap on the term AI neocloud or AI exposed does not mean that you're a buyer uh buying a recommendation even if you're exposed to the infrastructure buildout. You really have to have that discretion about understanding where they are in the ecosystem when that when that means they are in terms of exposed to profit pools or not. >> Yeah. the the I know the first question many of our viewers have uh does this apply to all of those companies because like you said there are dozens there are tons of companies out there that switched from that Bitcoin mining company and made the pivot into being a a data center company and providing that compute power to hyperscalers and and other people who are renting that compute power. Does what you say about cipher mining apply or cipher digital now apply to all of these companies or are there some things to look for that say some of these companies might be successful while others might struggle >> if your business is purely on owning uh effectively GPUs and owning a data center and then just purely renting it out as a bare bones u data center for the most part over the long period of time that's not a really high competitive mode business but there is an exception And that exception is if you're solving the key issue that everybody has right now with being able to get capacity, which is being scaled with access to power, not being small with access to power because then you don't solve anthropic or Gemini or OpenAI's problems because they have zero interest in going and signing contracts with a thousand of these tiny miners. But if you have a huge huge huge capacity of GPUs and you already have the power in place, then in the short term, the next few years, you probably have the ability to generate a return. But there's only one of these quote unquote neoclouds that I can think of that does that, and that's SpaceX. Um SpaceX is the only one with XAI that's pivoted to really being a neocloud with Grock on the side that has that cuz Corweave doesn't have that. Corore has the chips, but they don't they haven't solved the power issue. all of these um these former Bitcoin miners, they all have the power and the chips, but they're not big enough to be worthwhile for anybody to do a tangible deal with. So, they're busy picking these ones and twos. So, it's just really hard to see any of these guys earning a persistent high return on assets. That means any of them really are buying story. You have to have scale and then also have the already the infrastructure in place to mean that in the short term you could earn a superior return. That's our two cents anyway. It's not that we're right. >> Coreweave is the wei work of this space. A lot of hype, a lot of excitement. It's been coming down. It's going to continue to go down. >> Such an interesting conversation on the AI story. Overall, very bullish, especially of the hyperscaler sector, but not every AI stock is something to be bullish on right now. And I think that's important for investors to pay attention to along with the actual numbers, the actual accounting, that uniform accounting. And again, reminder about that link in the description if you want to continue learning from Joel and Rob, learning their accounting outlook on investing in the market. That special offer will also get you access to sign up for their monthly newsletter where you can get the insider knowledge on some of these stocks and the information that they share on this channel, too. Thank you both for your time today. If you want to hear a little bit more of Rob's theory on that AI buildout, make sure to watch this video if you haven't yet. We talked about blue collar millionaires and some of the different companies that are helping uh with the the nuts and bolts, the the bluecollar jobs behind building out this AI story here. These are really interesting companies to look at, too. You can watch that full interview
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