How Do You Know When to Buy, Sell or Hold a Stock?

That's an important question to me. How how will I know when to sell my data centers? I did a video yesterday on data centers. You can look that up. Well, the answer to that question is I have an AI agent uh call her Samantha and I do an analysis of my the stocks that I own at least quarterly whenever they do their earnings report. But I want to show you then how I've derived from the numbers that Samantha gives me from her Wall Street caliber report, how I make a decision as to where I buy, sell, and hold based on the numbers that she gives me. Take a look at this chart here. This is applied digital chart uh going back to 2022. What I've done is I've created a channel that that they trade in. This green line is the channel that is based on the price that Samantha tells me that um applied digital is going to be at 12 months, 24 months and 20 and and 36 months. and and then gives me five scenarios from which I can uh measure that that price. The green line represents what we call our bus thesis. that is that uh applied digital does what it says it's going to do achieves the numbers it projects it's going to do and then uh Samantha analyzes that and says what's the probability that in fact they will achieve those numbers and um that and then gives me that number this is the the base the uh bus uh thesis this red one uh down Here is the base case. That would be what Wall Street thinks um it's going to do based on their analysis. And the blue one is the aggressive analysis. What does that mean? Well, basically it it says that everything that um that uh applied digital thinks is going to happen does happen. But in addition to that, three wars stop. um gas prices come down, uh interest rates come down, and the communities loosen up and let Applied Digital build all the data centers that they want. And so that gives you then the price that this is showing in October of 2027 that the price will be roughly $55 under the aggressive scenario. Under the bus scenario, it'll be about uh $36.28. And then under the um the Wall Street scenario, it'll be about uh $204. Uh it's right now trading down here at uh $20 and well that's the 2004. The bus or the it would be the the uh conservative is uh right at about uh 26. So just a little above where it is. Then out here, this is the projection of what the price is going to be on the aggressive scenario in uh 2029, October of 2029. And it has a 5% probability of happening. Okay? And and when I say happening, hitting that number of 150 cents on the nose, a 5% probability. It has a 36% probability of being of achieving $9045 and it has a 35% probability of achieving $44.38. So with that I can then say how happy am I with this stock if it achieves these levels. Well then the black line is my cost basis. As you can see, I'm I'm down right now because I I bought it at about $2741 and it's currently selling at $20.7. But, uh, so that tells me um, this would be a good time to add to my position if I'm comfortable adding more data center stock to my position. I'm not. I I currently have 15% of my portfolio in uh data centers and that's as far as I want to go. Uh I have other um uh AI stocks but data centers 15% is as far as I want to go. So, I will hold there with the anticipation that uh by the end of this year or or a year from now, October of 2027, I'll be at 35 and uh I I'll be on my way up up to somewhere around 90. That's how I make a decision on whether or not I'm going to buy, sell, or hold. to someone who doesn't own Applied Digital right now, I would say you're you're in a heavy you're in the buy zone. Build a position. Um be comfortable that um if if if you if you buy it today at $20, in three years it's going to be you're going to about double you're going to be at uh 44. And the probability of that happening is 35%. But there's also a 36% probability that you'll be at uh right at 90 and a 5% probability that you'll be at 150. So that would tell me if I was not in applied digital, this is where I'd want to buy. [snorts] I do this on virtually all of my stocks. Where do I get these numbers? Let me show you where I get these numbers. We have what we call welcome Samantha. Samantha again is my AI agent. We have built this on our website so that you as a as a tribe member can come and you can put any ticker you want in there and we will do an analysis of it that is comparable to an analysis that you would receive from Wall Street if you had a direct connection with a Wall Street analyst. So you put the ticker in there and to give you some kind of idea we have on ask Samantha right now the analysis of 933 stocks. Now what I want to share with you that number used to be no more than 40. But what I realized back in July [snorts] is if I would like allow my tribe members to enter these tickers and I could create a Samantha that will do it for what whomever and whatever I could expand my capability and my quality of what I'm delivering to my tribe members. So what I then want go and is it it makes it easy for me that uh these are my top 10. Every one of my people can put in top 10 and they can immediately go to the latest analysis or they can come down here, click that symbol and it will alphabetize all 933 stocks. You go find the stock you want um and you'll find the analysis. So let's go to apply digital and I'll show you where I got those numbers. Okay, this is uh Samantha's analysis tell it tells you basically what uh applied digital does um what their current price is, what their market cap is, PE ratio, they're not profitable, so they don't have one. Um their 52- week high and how far off that high they are. So then it goes into a little more detail but here is the five uh scenarios that I spoke of. Um neutral or conservative base that would be u kind of Wall Street's analysis. uh bus thesis. Uh that's my uh based on the fact that that I that they are in a AI and they're going to achieve everything that uh their CEO says they're going to achieve and then this is the aggressive where all wars stop gas prices come down uh inflation comes down interest rates come down and that's where I got those prices. If you remember uh the aggressive uh 3 years out was 150, the um the base was 90 and uh the neutral was 44. Okay, so that gives you an an an understanding. Then where did I get the 36% probability? right here it tells me that it has a probability of achieving the 2x return uh of that that is the standard for our bus portfolio of 36%. And then deeper in the analysis and I'll well I get uh you'll see we go into every element of this stock. Here's our executive summary um of what happens, how the thesis is is designed and the catalysts against a calendar of what needs to happen in the next 30 days, 90 days, 180 days. And what they're what you're going to find here is that based on what last earnings call that the CEO and the CFO of uh Applied Digital said, that's these are the things that h need to happen for them to stay on the bus um thesis. And uh then we go into um what is the and and the reason this is in here uh what is the short squeeze risk is uh it tells you what percentage of uh the stock is uh in in a short position and how is that potentially going to change the price of the stock. Now all of this is factored into the numbers that I showed you up a little bit higher. So we go through a a a total analysis. This is a quantitative of their solveny, their liquidity, their valuation, their efficiency, um their AI thesis, their margin trends, uh what their balance sheet looks like. Uh they they are issuing some shares, so they are diluting their stock. And it's important that Samantha takes that into consideration as she is fig uh figuring the price free cash flow a D minus because they don't have all that much. In fact, they have a negative cash flow of uh $2.38 million. That is all factored into the price projections that we have profitability, revenue growth, and management execution. the there as you're seeing we go we're at the ninth consideration. We go up to 31 um 31 uh pieces of analysis, areas of analysis to give us the numbers that we showed you just up front there. And then it goes into the final call of action based on my holdings uh in in the stock. What does that mean? And how do my tribe members know what how to interpret it? I have a tell sheet. This is all the stocks that I own plus my watch list. And what I do then is take the numbers that Samantha gave me on a PLLD and I put them in here. And um that analysis was done on 108. So, it's a little newer than the one that I showed you back there on Ask Samantha. So, what it's telling me is the stock price in 20 uh in tw 12 months will be 34 24 months 55 and um 36 months u 68. So, and then the probability that it achieves these numbers, the probability that it achieves the double in 36 months and the probability that it achieves that number in 36 months. Again, you aren't going to digest all of this from this 15minute video, but but I want you to gain the advantage of understanding what you own and maybe coming to an understanding of why you own it or why you might want to buy it or sell it or hold it at this given time and moment. We update these, as I say, on a regular basis. I believe though I just have given you an overload of information and you can't digest it. If you can, you're better than me. Uh so what I ask you is if you'd like to learn this, I'll give you 14 days free entrance into our world of best of us investors and you can learn how to use all of this. you can enter stocks and and get a projection from Samantha uh as to what the price is going to be in like I just showed you. Uh and you'll have access to the other 950 socks that other tribe members have asked access to. Then after uh 14 days, you can make a decision. Do you want to put this in your arsenal, in your quiver of arrows to make good investment decisions? If you do, great. $60 a month uh the rest of your life and or how long you want to continue this. But what I think it does is it gives you something more than a talking head to tell you what this is what I think you should do. This is what I'm doing. No, no. You don't have the same risk tolerance that I do. You don't have the same financial situation that I'm living under. So, what I do for myself makes no sense for you to do. But if you can get enough information like I just showed you on the on this sheet and say, "Okay, I see the worst that it might do. I see what Carrie thinks it might do and I see the aggressive interpretation. If everything in the world turns out good, that's what's going to happen." So my invitation is open. Come when you want. go into the link in the description, find your way to the sign up, and then dedicate 14 days to learn as much as you can as to how to use this system to make you a better investor. That's my that's my wish for you. Hope you have a good day. Uh I'm not going to be making any more videos this week. I have to go speak to a Goldman Sachs group who wants to know how does this work.