Is Bitcoin Heading to New Lows?

Bitcoin is currently consolidating above a very important support. We want to talk about all the important support and resistance levels that we are tracking, structural and Fibonacci levels, what they could mean for the week ahead. Keep in mind it will likely be a volatile week. So, it's very important to stay up to date with what's going on. Why volatile? Well, midterms, midterm elections, maybe not today, but tomorrow we might see some volatility and then into Wednesday and possibly Thursday. So, I'm looking forward to the week. Keep in mind that the madness in the markets could come back uh during these days and short-term volatility that doesn't necessarily generate a new trend. So, please keep that in mind. We are here on the daily chart for Bitcoin. Now, we had the the Binance uh you could say that Binance was the catalyst for the selloff. Now, if I'm saying Binance was the catalyst for the selloff, there wasn't really a major sell-off to be honest. Yeah, a lot of people were panicking. Um well I guess to a degree that's absolutely justified if you had funds on Binance. Um but I think they they are solving it. You know in the end it wasn't yes it was the largest hack but you know as a user you get at least um you know you're not suffering right they they are they are kind of compensating everybody. And so the main problem was I mean a lot of people that were due to the uncertainty there was this selloff but it stabilized very very quickly. Now, I think um it was CZ who said that thanks to the FBI um what the IRS that that Bitcoin stabilized quite quickly. Well, in my opinion, like like it was just the 50WE SMA, right? Just the 50WE SMA. Now, of course, um maybe I'm simplifying this a little bit too much, but I often said that the 50week SMA, the the the simple moving average, guys, that that we've been watching now for many, many weeks, it is the next support in line. And why could I say that? Well, because it's just in its history, it's just so relevant. I mean, it really is no surprise. We talked about it many times. You see it again and again that it provides support, provided res at the moment, it's very relevant. It provided resistance here several times in August, September. Then in um here in October we had support. So of course at some point it breaks and it's it's a great trend filter like at the end of the bull market. It was a really important signal whether the market is rather bullish or bearish. Here it held it held. So in bull markets we're often above it and in bare markets below it. Yeah, it held it held as resistance. Sometimes um we get rejected, pull back and then break out and then stay above it and that's usually then bull market territory. So it's really not that complicated. Yeah, it really isn't that complicated. Um I also said I mean I just mentioned a lot of people panicking. The thing is I think there were probably quite a few people who thought well in the short term we might now crash completely to new lows with those disaster messages from Binance. But in the end, what I've been telling you that this is most likely a corrective pullback held. Okay, that thesis still holds. It was not a major sell-off. Um, that catalyst is gone now. And the market only saw a red candle on the daily. That was it. We broke out of the channel. We're already back inside the channel. So, this is just a corrective pullback. Support levels are still holding. We haven't even reached our main support zone between 63,326 and 74,800. Now structure matters. Let's say let's say something like that would have happened here. Binance hack. It could have meant the selloff catalyst. there. It could have been the catalyst for a major sell-off that was due to happen anyway because these these events are often just catalysts. What's due to happen anyway and then the market might have formed the low and moved up. So again, these can often be catalysts, but yeah, you know, we expected lower, but what did we expect? Not necessarily a major sell-off because it's a corrective pullback. We want the market to form a higher low here and essentially push higher. And I would expect the market to push higher maybe into next year as soon as this entire pullback is over. At the moment, I see no evidence that we're on our way to completely new lows. Now, someone asked me if I could map out the road map to new lows. Honestly, I don't have a clear road map to new lows. I mean, it would have to be something like because because we don't have a clear fivewave decline. would have to be something like wave 1, wave two, wave three, wave four, wave five. This would then be the wave 1 of the next downtrend, then a corrective bounce. So, we could stay in the range for a little while, then a third wave down, and then four, five. This would be the road map to new lows. But I do not see, look, this would mean this was a wave 1, wave two. We would be in a third wave now, internal third wave of a larger wave 1. I don't see really the momentum for a third wave. So, this remains a a scenario that's possible, but it's not a scenario I would really spend much time at the moment talking about because we have a situation in which we're still in a pullback. There's no sign of low is in. So, I still expect lower in the let's say shortterm and then I will pay close attention here to the key support levels. Now if we talk already on the daily chart, if we talk about daily chart levels, structural levels, yeah, we clearly have this swing low here around 75,500. This would be next support. Do we have any other key levels? Well, I'd say this area here seems to be important support resistance around 81,230. Why do I say that? Because it's where the market found resistance together with a 50week SMA. It found support. You see, no daily candle closed below mid-occtober. Then we broke below, retested. And so, yeah, you can you can kind of split this into several sections. We're currently moving in and we're tracking on the smaller time frame even smaller resistances here. But I said if they break it opens the door to a test of these previous swing highs. So these structural levels they definitely come into focus and uh I think that's what matters right now. So the next objective for the bears and you see how these levels come together because the next objective for the bears would be a break below 75,500. But do you see what I see? Hopefully um the next Fibonacci support is just below 74,800. So my view is this is a this really is a cluster of support strong support barrier which is why the selloff is so limited at the moment and the bulls are still strong. Yes, they are not showing up yet but they are still avoiding that we get a full impulsive selloff at the moment. So my view remains we can probably still go a little bit lower as I explained also in the videos over the last few days. There's currently no evidence that a meaningful low is in. And I will buy in this zone. Um, and we might only look, we might only get a wick below the 50week SMA. As soon as we touch this zone and then see an impulsive move up, we could have a low. Let's also take a quick look at the uh shorter time frame. And by the way, before we carry on here, if you're interested in additional updates, also feel free to sign up to our newsletter. It's completely for free. Um there's even an MCO Elliot wave cheat sheet that you get when signing up because that will help you to understand the videos better. Um there will be also further discounts. There are um there's additional stuff about the geopolitical development. So I talked a little bit about um gold as well, silver and how the midterms could affect the markets in in yesterday's edition. So if you sign up, I plan to send these out every Sunday. Um, there were two last week that got sent out. So, yeah, feel free to sign up. It's completely for free. It's the [clears throat] MCO Intelligence Newsletter, and I sent you or I put the link into the comment section for you. So, you can uh sign up, and you can cancel at any time, of course, if I if I annoy you. Um, now looking at the um looking at the shorter time frame here, I mean, Bitcoin moved in this look in the blue count. Yeah, in this blue scenario, which is the one that that could send us a little bit lower. um possibly into this larger support zone that we talked about in looking at the smaller time frame. Um it we we've seen this wave four bounce, right, that we wanted to see over the last few days into resistance. Resistance is unchanged, completely unchanged. Um here between 78,375 and 79,51 and it's straightforward, guys. Um in the Elliot wave cheat sheet, I also show you the fib levels that are relevant, right? So, for example, for a wave four, it's the 38.2 retracement and the 50% retracement. So, it's really not that difficult. And um we saw a rejection again as you would expect it from resistance. And now we're approaching micro support. I added that yesterday in the member updates. It's between 76,650 and 77,528. Um, this is simply a zone that if the market respects it and we see an impulsive reaction to it, we might see a more complex form of a correction. So that means we might go a little bit higher first. Yeah. Possibly test those swing highs here that I showed you on the daily chart, right? We talked about it on the daily chart. This resistance, we might test then the 81,238 level next if we break above initial resistance. That would logically be the next one uh that would then matter. Okay. So again keep in mind here on the smaller time frame you see much more detail. You see some smaller Fibonacci support and resistance levels and they do work these levels. You see that and if those break then the next resistance in line will come into focus and the Elliot wave count shows you where it could land uh as well. Yeah the labels. So I hope that helps you today. Therefore all eyes need to be on this 76,650 to 77,528 level. Not saying it has to hold. Actually, in our scenario where we go lower, eventually it should break. So, I'll keep you updated about this. And then obviously the 50week SMA and the 74,800 level will be the next key support. So, yeah, I hope this was helpful. Again, if you are interested in more updates, make sure that you also sign up to our newsletter. It's completely for free. I also cover the dollar. I cover the S&P 500 and much more. And you get lots of additional bonus stuff. also uh stuff that's different from what you find here on YouTube or on our social media channels. Thanks so much. Wish you a great day. All the links are in the comments.