Last Time Wall Street Quit Bitcoin, It Was the Bottom

Today, I'm going to show you how every dollar that poured into Bitcoin ETFs this year has now walked back out and why the last time this crowd sold this hard, they were selling right at Bitcoin's low for the year. Now, the midterms are over, and I'll show you what Bitcoin did in the 12 months after each of the last three, and why moments like these, like this one, when fear is high and the price is like barely falling, have been some of the best times to buy, at least dollar cost average. Last week, I told you Bitcoin would probably chop around and that a test of the safety net wouldn't surprise me. And on Friday, it dipped right into it. and bounced. So, that call held. What I didn't expect was where the selling pretty much came from, which it wasn't oil this time. It was ETFs. So, let's get into that. Here's the Bitcoin daily chart. And that green band along the bottom is the double safety net I showed you last week where the 50week average and the 200day average sit together. All right. The white arrow is Friday's lows and overnight Bitcoin dipped to about $75,700 just under the band and its lowest since mid of September. Then it bounced. So the net is bending but it is not breaking. Okay, remember that. But the orange line, the 20-day average has crossed under the blue line, the 50-day. So, the short-term trend has turned against us. So, who's doing all this freaking selling? All right. So, this is every dollar that's gone into US spot Bitcoin ETFs this year. And at its peak in May, they've taken in more than $3.2 billion. But after 643 million left on Friday, 399 million on Monday, and another 116 million on Tuesday, the year is now in the red at minus $60 million. It goes in really fast. All right, so look at the dip in the middle because in July, this same crowd was still selling hard two weeks after Bitcoin had already made its low for the year. And that's ETF money for you. It arrives late and it leaves late. Okay. Now, on Monday, I said on X that some of my buddies, even some of my hardcore OG buddies, are swapping their coins for ETF shares because they think an ETF cannot get hacked. And I'll tell you what I told them. I'm still holding, of course, and I I ain't getting hacked. But here here it is. I think it wasn't just Wall Street pulling the money out, okay? This was these people as well. People are freaked out. They want to take their money off exchanges, their hardware wallets. They just want to put in ETFs and feel safe. Okay, which I get. I guess for some people if they they really don't know how to take care of their coins, which we do and we will teach you that as well. We've taught many people this. Okay, so this is the total value of all stable coins. crypto's own cash waiting to buy and it's down about uh 12 billion in a month and it's dropped every day since the Binance hack. Okay, Binance lost about $6.3 billion in about 20 minutes last Thursday. And the FBI says it was North Korea, which as I said on Monday, I'm not fully buying, no pun intended, but the 18,270 bitcoins the hackers took couldn't be frozen by anyone because no company controls Bitcoin. And it isn't only crypto because this week Paraguay's central bank shut down Ueno Bank, a digital bank at around 3 million customers and the app and the card stopped working overnight with deposits only guaranteed to about $38,000. So much for your money being safe in the bank. And that is why I made a video this week on the push to scare you out of self-custody, which you can watch right here. So, what changed overnight? America voted yesterday and the Democrats have taken the Senate and the House. And you know what I think of politics on both sides, but the market has lost one of its biggest unknowns and the Bitcoin in your own wallet doesn't vote. What I'm watching is oil because Brent fell more than 7% on Monday after President Trump hinted at progress in talks with Iran through Qatari mediators. But Axios reported that Israel's Netanyahu is pushing Trump to strike Iran soon after the midterms. And you know, I'm against this war. But either way, the oil risk didn't end with the vote. And that puts the Fed in a corner. The Fed held rates last Wednesday, but two members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammock, voted for another hike, and traders put now a 75% chance on a rate hike in December. They can put on as tough as a show as they like, but nobody can keep raising rates on top of this much debt. So sooner or later, the printer comes back out, and that's what Bitcoin was built for. So, what happened to Bitcoin after the last three midterms? Let's cover this, okay? This is going to make you freaking bullish. All right, so this is Bitcoin after each of the last three midterm elections. And look at the far right because 12 months later, Bitcoin was higher every time by 14% after 2014, 42% after 2018, and 131% after 2022. The road was not smooth though because in 2014 and in 2018 it fell another 50% first. But those were the deep bottoms of the bare markets and this year Bitcoin's already made its big drop back in July and it's now about a third above that low. So my view the real shakeout came early and last Thursday I said on X that most of the tourists are already gone. and they already panic sold and the rest are Black Rockck and their friends. But there could still be one more shakeout before the turn. So let's look at the line that decides that. So this is a Bitcoin weekly chart with four red candles in a row. And overnight, Bitcoin poked under the white line, the 50WE average, but it's already back above it. The orange 20we is still under the blue 50WE, but the gap is narrowing. All right, so check this out. The slow trend is quietly improving. A weekly close back above $80,000 would be the first sign the bulls are back in charge. And if we close a week under the 50W week, I'll hold my hands up on the call. Okay, so here's how I think the next few days actually play out. My base case is that the ETF selling burns itself out like it did in July. Okay. And Bitcoin chops around this safety net. The bad case is strikes on Iran sending oil back and a weekly close under the 50W week. Okay. The good case is the ETFs turning green and a weekly close above $80,000. On Friday, we get the jobs report and next Thursday, the inflation number, which, you know, I do not believe because they keep changing how they measure this, but it's the number Wall Street actually trades on for a reason, though. Weeks like this are why Heidi and I run Learning Crypto Membership. If you built a real Bitcoin position alongside a job or a family and a family, you need a calm plan from two people who have held through every cycle on this channel. If you're a long-term holder, nothing about the big picture has changed this week. The fear and greed index is at 34, down from 48 a week ago, which is great. And when there's this much fear with Bitcoin going down, there's been some of the best buying opportunities for dollar cost averaging. Okay, a fixed amount on a fixed day without trying to guess the bottom. Think in years, not weeks. And me, nothing dramatic. My coins are in my wallet with no leverage. All right. And I use the Satoshi indicator at learningcrypto.com as a great way to dollarcost average. Okay. And before I go, this week, this channel turned a decade old. Heidi and I started it on the 2nd of November, 2016. We just really want to say thank you so much for everyone who's been with us for throughout the years. We really appreciate it. Um, you know what? Tell us what are your favorite memories of us down below. We would love to hear this in the comments. If this helped, give it a like, subscribe, and send it to a friend who thinks who is thinking of swapping their coins for an ETF. All right, talk to you soon.