Market CRASHING? Here Is What You Need To Know!

It looks like 2 days in a row the market is in the red. Not by much, but again some uncertainty presenting itself. What's going on guys? It's Ricky. Here is your quick market update. I hope that you learn something new and if you do again, all I ask you to do is drop a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel if you feel like we earned it. NASDAQ market as of right now is down .31% with that being said again, the main thing that I really want to highlight are two specific things. The US Treasury announced a new $6 billion bond buyback in longer dated debt. What did yields do once this was announced? Remember the higher the yield, the higher the interest payment that the Federal Reserve pays or the US money pays on money that it borrows. The opposite of what they were supposed to do. They spiked. Normally when you see a huge bond buyback, especially for longer dated debt, you do that in return for lower yields. That was the opposite. The exact dollar amount of the bond buyback is relevant whether it was 6 billion or 30 billion. It's about the message that Best net was trying to send. The message is being rejected by the credit markets and we now have the highest 10-year yield in the past 5 years at 4.85%. This is a mess. I mean in just short, what the bond market is telling Treasury Secretary Best net is FU. They do not trust it. They're trading higher. There's more uncertainty. Now again, the second thing that I quickly want to highlight. 1 hour later, US oil prices are now above $96 a barrel. That is 44% since July 2nd. No comment from President Trump. No Iran deal is even being discussed. If the CPI, which is this Friday, we do plan to live stream it, so just another reason to subscribe. If the CPI inflation comes in hot on Friday, it's hard to see that the Federal Reserve will be able to justify another rate pause. Today's markets are or today marks the 193rd day of the Iran war. But again, according to Trump, it's not a war unless he needs it to be, right? Now, what could be a solution to all of this, right? Bond yields, oil prices, inflation, I mean, it it's super simple. We pull out of Iran. That's it. If you really think about where all the uncertainty is currently being, you know, sourced from, it's what is going on in the Middle East. As the Strait of Hormuz and tensions continue to escalate in Iran, oil prices continue to, right, creep up higher. As oil prices continue to creep up higher, our inflation will continue to creep up higher. And again, according to the latest, do I have it here? The Fed rate monitor tool. Let me update it cuz we were lastly at 60%. Yep, still at 60%. 60.1% probability that in 1 week, 1 hour, and 9 minutes, the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates. That is of course before tomorrow, which is the PPI data report. And then on Friday, it's the CPI data report. Remember at techbudsolutions.com, you can scroll down and we have a little economic calendar if you don't already have one, and you can see the weekly schedule. Today was the ADP employment change, tomorrow's the PPI report, and then on Friday, it's the CPI data report. The reason this is so important is again, if inflation continues to creep up higher, especially with oil prices being the biggest contributor to our rising rate of inflation, this would be the reason on why the Federal Reserve might have to raise rates, which slows down the economy. That is bearish, not bullish. This is again, if If look at the overall Nasdaq market, Nasdaq market is honestly, big picture, you know, doing just fine, right? Nearly trading at all-time highs. And that is the thing that I want to remind you. When I make these videos, and sometimes I get it, my titles or my thumbnails, they like, "Oh, right." If you're trading off of titles and thumbnails or making investment decisions based off of that, then let's be honest, you shouldn't be investing or trading at all, right? If you listen to what we say within these videos, it's always super clear and super direct. I always talk about both sides. I am definitely biased in the sense that I believe markets are irrational. I believe there's enough uncertainty in the market that if it wasn't for Trump and his constant tweets, markets would be downturning. But he continues to pump the markets, and again, that's just the market that we partake in. So, as of right now, Nasdaq market is still nearly trading at all-time highs. Overall markets are doing very well with, again, a lot of it being propped up by AI stocks or AI infrastructure stocks. And I feel like that's well understood, right? There is a big disconnect between, you know, some regular tech company and or retail. If we look at Walmart, which is obviously, um, always a great-performing stock long-term, as of right now, recently selling off, right? I think Walmart is a great example, maybe even a better example of how the average American is doing. And if we see that Walmart is slowing down or struggling, I feel like that really tells us how the average American is doing in the United States, right? Their guidance is lower for 2026 going into 2027. And it makes sense, right? The average American is feeling the pressure. Remember, the overall stock market is not a representation of how the average American is doing, but that's a conversation for another time. As of right now, the focus for this week, right, is inflation. And reason why is because inflation reports that get released tomorrow, Thursday, and on Friday are going to aggressively determine what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next week during the FOMC rate decision. I plan to live stream all of it for free on this channel. So again, if you like the way that I break things down, I just ask you to subscribe to the channel. With that being said, I did talk about one stock yesterday for those that are subscribed to my channel, especially if you're part of my LPP team, you got to see this trade kind of play out. Coreweave pumped up. There is no fundamental reason on why it was running up. It is notorious for pumping and dumping, pumping and dumping. Again, it's a high-risk trade both to go long or to go short. I talked about why I was okay with shorting it. I share my ideas not because I want you to copy me. Even if you did the opposite, I would never be offended. We're all here for the same reason, it's to make money. I simply saw an opportunity, right? It recently pumped up due to earnings, it consolidated, and then sold off back to lows of 80, right? From overall highs that it formed before to the overall lows, that was a 28% sell-off. Yesterday, I talked about, "Hey, it's running up. It became overbought." I would expect that leading up to these major inflation reports, markets are likely to de-risk. It's always the most speculative stocks that can correct to the hardest. I saw it as an opportunity, right? Yesterday, when it ran up to highs of the 103, nearly 104, or it did hit 104, it then began to pull on back. And again, it played out very beautiful. Again, in today's live trading session, I kept it very simple, and I didn't need to add more to my short that I carried overnight. All I was doing was I was holding until direction showed to be more in my favor. From the highs to the current lows, it sold off 7 to 8%. Now, one thing that I shared with my LPP team is for anybody that took that trade, if you feel like it's lacking progress on the downside and you're concerned about it recovering, take profits. Again, this is not a meme stock group. I don't get offended by you not hoddling or whatever it is that they call it. We're all here for the same reason, to make money. And if you made your money, you even though I believe there's more potential downside, I do agree with you that well, you know, who's to say it can't just have a dead cat bounce and begin to recover before it continues to sell off. 100% Your job as a trader or as an investor is to weigh out your options, right? Okay, you've made X amount of money. Now, what happens if you give it back versus how much more you can make? What is it worth to you? Maybe the risk is too high, you don't see the continuation to actually happen because Nasdaq is now beginning to recover, and I love that for you. Because of that alone, and again, I announced it to my LPP team, I began to see a lot of consolidation here on Core Weave beginning to show signs of a possible support at 96. Obviously, 96 is not my overall price target. I wanted to get closer to 80, but guess what? I'm not a perfect trader. I'm not going to pretend to be. And if I see that there's signs of a support and that it could begin to recover, I'm going to trim and lock in a portion of my position. And that's exactly what I did with our LPP team. I announced it to them that I covered half of my short because of indication of a support. So, I still have skin in the game, but with the idea that it can begin to recover before it continues to sell off. And again, I just wanted to recap and follow up based off of what I talked about yesterday because I think it's important for people not just to see the trade and the, you know, thousands of dollars that I made behind the trade, but remember, I trade with this trade alone was with over 200K. It's not something that the beginner trader should be, you know, choosing to trade with. And it takes money to make money, at least the way that I do it. I don't trade options, I only trade with shares. And I'm always here to talk about the good and the bad. I'm just very happy that we were able to identify an opportunity. I explained my thought process behind it, not that it had to play out exactly according to plan, but that you understood my why. And that is exactly what we try to do every day within our LPP live trading sessions. I trade live every morning right at market open for 30 minutes to an hour and they're always saved. So, even if you don't tune in live, you can always go back and rewatch it. We have members that signed up back in 2018 that still get to watch me trade live. You can rewatch one of our recent live sessions even before you join and guess what? It's one-time payment, lifetime access and you can get it for $299 off whenever you're ready to join us. No pressure. It's the second link in the description down below. I just want to do my part in keeping you guys up to date with the two major updates. And also, I don't care for crypto. I don't believe in crypto, but I think this is a great reminder of what crypto stands for and it's just another pump and dump. Hud- Hunter Biden's crypto meme coin laptop crashes 99% in 2 hours after launch. Again, another gimmick in a speculative space in a black market, right? Cuz that's all crypto is really used for. Um, I really wish that crypto or Bitcoin believers were as right as they were passionate, right? I wish Bitcoin was used at grocery stores and gas stations and I could pay my mortgage with Bitcoin. That would be true adoption, but it's been over 15 years, minimal adoption and a bunch of these pump and dump rug pulls that to me, it just cheapens and weakens the I would say validity behind cryptocurrency and it being the future. Just my two cents. There's a reason that Bitcoin is still down 40% from all-time highs while overall market still sit nearly at all-time highs. So, again, you get to choose the markets that you choose to invest in and trade in. I'm not here to say that you can't make money trading crypto. I'm just here to say that again, it's a much more risky and much more volatile market and those that make the most money right now are the ones that know when to buy and know when to sell, right? It's super speculative, super volatile and if markets overall do begin to sell off, crypto will crash even harder. I'll do my part in keeping you guys up to date. I hope to see you for our live trading session tomorrow. Again, second link in the description down below. Make sure you take advantage of that $2.99 off. And if you have any questions, you know where to reach me. Like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care, team.