Nearly Half The S&P Is Already Down 20% | Ted Oakley

every sector, all 11 are are on average down 20% from their highs. You're having many days now where you have more new lows than new highs. Uh it looks like it's okay, but underneath it's really not okay. A lot of what's happening right now is people are on hold on spending and buying, doing a lot of things, especially big items. Election has something to do with it. You're probably not going to get much coming out of the Fed here after that. It's Friday, October 2nd. We had a bit of a softer jobs report than expected. The economy added 29,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate actually rose now to 4.2%. Interestingly, stocks are up. Risk assets are up today. The S&P is up about 1%. The NASDAQ's up one and uh uh 130 basis points. Gold is down 1%. Bitcoin's up 1 and a.5%. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, continue to climb. So right now uh with the softer jobs numbers, the market's pricing in a lower chance the Fed is going to raise interest rates, the Fed funds rate by the October meeting, which is later this month. So the CME Fed Watch tool is now pricing in a 77% chance of no hike. This is a basically a 180 flip from last week. Ted Oakley, founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins us now to talk about all of this and the deteriorating breadth of the S&P 500. Why are markets still up despite the deteriorating economic conditions, which we'll talk about, as well as deteriorating fundamentals of the stock market overall, except just a few tech names. Ted, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. >> Thank you, David. Good to see you. >> A very um very full agenda today. Um lots has happened in the last week. Let's start with today's news. 29,000 jobs added. uh economy is uh showing some weakness um around the labor market. As I mentioned before, unemployment rate now at 4.2%. The key I want to focus on uh Ted is the possibility of a Fed rate hike by October. Previously, it was overwhelmingly in favor of a hike. Now, it's not. What do you think is going to happen? >> Well, I I don't know, David. I you know, I'm not much one to guess out guess the Fed. We really don't use them in our investing process too much other than just knowing where interest rates are. >> But I know I it's interesting a few of those people have come out talking about they may want to go on hold uh this time, but you know the last time they were all all of them were all in on what they were doing. So I'm I'm not certain they they know what they're doing honestly if you want to know. So uh I would I wouldn't think they need to raise them. We we've got a softer everything looks softer to us. So rise raising rates into that I don't think is a good idea. But >> you never know about the Fed. They're usually too late, you know, too soon, too late. They never they never get anything right. So it's not surprising whatever they do. Well, I think the investment implication would be if the Fed were to raise rates uh soon, it would raise the short end of the yield curve, which I know you've been long uh sorry, you've been bullish on short duration if I'm if I'm not mistaken, and you've been um staying away from the long treasuries, which was a good call. Um so, if if we're expecting more hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, presumably one may want to taper off in the short duration as well. What do you think? Well, one of the things that happens is depends on how you own the bonds. Now, we own a lot of variable treasuries, >> which price they they they repric every week, but they price off of the 90-day treasury. They're a great asset to own. And so, they they automatically adjust every week to wherever the rates are. So, we would be covered to to a degree on that. You're not totally covered because we own some we own other bonds all the way up to two two and a half years. But uh I what I think could happen is that if if they were to push up the rates, we would probably stay pretty much pat like we are. I I wouldn't say that forever though. I mean, there's a point where you look at it uh when everybody gets on one side of the trade and by the way, they're going that way now. So, uh but I've seen a lot of buying really by institutions in the last three or four days in the longer bonds. So, maybe they're early. I don't know. Now, for us, I'd like to see a little bit more before we'd ever buy a longer maturity, but we're not we're not there right now. >> Uh let's go back to the labor market. Now, 29,000 jobs is a big miss because the Dow consensus was 84,000 for the last month, and of course, the unemployment rate rose. Now, you've been talking about the fear that the economy is more fragile than the Fed is announcing to the public. Is this fragility and weakness finally catching up here? In other words, the Iran war, uh, higher oil prices, um, higher inflation expectations, is that finally catching up to the economy, you think? >> Well, I think so to a degree. Yeah. And you have to look at it. If you look at restaurants, hotels, a a lot of the things where, you know, consumer type things are lower, you know, those those businesses have been falling. So, you know, they don't need as many people and they don't, you know, they won't keep, you know, that's where part of it is. I haven't loo I haven't looked at numbers today. So, I can't tell you where the weakness is necessarily, but none of that surprises me because we thought all along that the economy was probably a little lower than people thought it was as far as employment. Um, but I would think, by the way, that the inflation rate would probably hold up in September. Uh so that would be interesting to me to see how all of that wraps together at their meeting because I don't think the inflation rate will go down in September. >> Yeah. Okay. We we'll come back to that. Now today tech stocks rallied. Nvidia hitting new all-time high. Crowdstrike Palto Networks AMD all rose to all new to new all-time highs. When you see a number like 29,000 jobs last month added, which was a big miss, do you does that make you more defensive or does it make you want to buy uh beaten down cyclicals, especially if the stocks rally on a news item like this? >> Well, the problem for us on cyclicals is we don't necessarily think they're ready to go. Uh I mean you can look at that too for sure but almost every industry every sector including tech actually because it included other tech besides just but just this group uh they were you know they were average off of their high 20% uh for the year and so most of these sectors are running some tr trouble right now. So for us um we just again we just look at the single stocks and there's nothing there particularly in that group the the the really hyperscal group that we we're we're going to start to keep on buying. We own don't get me wrong we own some Apple some Google that type of thing. Uh but uh it's not something where we're chasing a lot of that stuff. >> Before we continue let's talk about protecting your email privacy. Your email address is basically your online identity. It's tied to your bank, your investments, and your subscriptions. And for most people, that inbox sits with US Big Tech, where the business model is built on profiling you and selling access to your personal data to advertisers. Today's sponsor, Proton Mail, is a free private alternative to big tech. It's built in Switzerland with no ads, no tracking, and no profiling. Emails between Proton users are endto-end encrypted, so only you and the person you're writing to can read them. Not even ProTel Mail can read your emails. And switching is easier than you think. Easy Switch connects to Gmail so you can send and receive from both in one inbox while you transition at your own pace. Check out my link proton.me/david link down below and get your free Proton mail account today. At what point is bad news going to be bad news? Because right right now bad news is good news apparently for markets. Yeah. Oh, I would think probably uh David's 27, you know, when you get into 27, I think a lot of what's happening right now is people are on hold on spending and buying, doing a lot of things, especially big items >> because I'm looking at big homes, all that sort of thing. cuz I think election has something to do with it because they realize that, you know, after, you know, after you get a a split Congress, you're probably not going to get much coming out of the Fed here after that. Um because I don't think they can get it through. So, I think people in general are sort of holding back because of that. And maybe that's starting what's starting to show up, but I think the biggest part of it shows up in 27. And I think that's where we if we going to run in some trouble, that's where it would probably be cuz we're already in we're you know we're into the fourth quarter here. So if it happens I think it'll happen in 2027. I'm reading now Seattle now has the fastest speaking of homes. I was just reading this yesterday. Um Seattle has been um hit the real estate market fastest falling home prices of any major US metropolitan area. According to the K Schiller home price index, Seattle home prices are down 2.3% year-over-year. Um, now are you are you is this a nationwide problem or just focused on a certain metropolitan areas? I'm speaking um, you know, to you on the 2nd of October when interest rates are higher than they were a couple months ago and the mortgage rate is now above 7%. So, I'm wondering if that has any direct impact in the housing market yet. Well, that has an impact, but it was impacted anyway. I mean, we had falling uh falling new sales, falling existing sales. We've had that going on for months. And I think uh what's happened is is that you're the situation to where uh right, you take a 7.2% mortgage and put it on top of a home that's already probably overpriced and that's where you get to. But I've said all along, one of the problems with new home sales are insurance and taxes. You throw that on top of that home price and young people can't, you know, they can't afford it and and we're in a quagmire on on homes right now and I don't really I don't see us getting out of that for some time unless something drastic happens. >> Let let's just I mean real estate is a you know depending on the jurisdiction. So, I I think to frame this as a general macro question, if someone were to ask you in Texas where you're based, uh specifically, I believe Austin, if someone were to ask you, "Hey, Ted, um I'm uncertain. I I'm I'm a little bit uh worried about where the economy is headed. I'm worried about how interest rates are high. I'm worried about gas prices, but I need to buy a home, and you know, I can keep renting for a few more months, or I can, you know, I can start buying now. Should I wait? Should I do something now?" How would you respond? Well, you know, I look at a home different from anything else because it is a home, you know, if you want to pay up for it. And uh I don't I'm not certainly the pri the prices could certainly come on down some. But one of the things you have to realize is, you know, where you buy, what neighborhood, there's a lot of things go into that, but if they have the money now and they can go down, uh put really put a lot down and get the get the debt down, I don't think there's anything wrong with buying it. But again, um, that's a home decision. I always I when it comes to a home, I look at it differently than investment real estate really. It's my home. So, if I want to pay a little more, that's different. >> This is something I'm thinking about as well. I mean, Vancouver is very different from Texas is is a is a is a jurisdiction. But, >> you know, I could keep renting, which is what I'm doing now, or I can go buy something. But, just as a I have to approach this from a financial decision. I can't just think, well, I need someplace to live. I already have a place to live. I can keep renting. So, what what should be my decision-m criteria here? >> Well, I think if you get in if you if you in a position where you've seen the prices go down, say 20% or more, >> Yeah. >> then you probably want to start looking pretty hard. I mean, real estate does fluctuate, but not that much normally. Uh, not that much. And so, if you get those things down, you know, 18 20%, I if I were you, I'd start looking around at that point. >> That aside, let's talk about the bond market itself. Like I mentioned, you uh stayed away from the lawn treasuries. Are you more interested now with the 10 year above 5%. >> Well, it could be. We're not there yet for us and we'd like to see there's some things that go into that, you know, that inflation rate. I think I think that inflation is going to stay high through the quarter. So, if that's the case that I wouldn't see the the interest rates really falling off that much. I think there will be a spot for it, don't get me wrong, but it could be three or four months out. But I for us at that point, we we we might look at uh taking on some longer paper. I think it wouldn't be more than 7 to 10% though at the most. Uh you can't you can't live in this business off long paper. Eventually, it'll get you. And so um that's kind of where we are on that right now. Well, right now I think some people are considering switching from equities to bonds given how high yields are. What would you say to those people? >> Well, depends on far how far out you want to want to go. I mean, you know, you can get you don't get a whole lot more for going 10 years than you do five. And you don't get a whole lot more for going 30 years than you do 10. So, you have to be decide, well, where do I want to be? How far out do I want to go? It depends on age and a lot of different things. But, uh, I I I think it'd be hard for me. I think you'd have to go up another half or 3/4 of a point before I would say it'd be like 1987 where everybody just switched to bonds because they went up so high. Um, but yeah, they could look at it that way. I I I don't I don't know that I'd look at it that way. Move everything from stocks to bonds, but but that I guess some people could. Well, the the the move in Treasury yields in the last couple of months has become mainstream attention. But people have to remember that this move didn't start just in the last couple weeks. The bond market, especially the long end of the bond bond curve, has been in a bare market since 2021. And so, u I wonder if the fundamentals behind why the bond market has been in a bare market since a couple years ago are still in place today besides just the war on Iran. Basically, what I'm trying to ask is if this warning ran never happened and oil prices never went to 100 bucks a barrel, would bonds still be at the position that they're in today, you think? >> Well, I think they would be close because see the problem on the bond market is they can't quit borrowing extra money. We keep running >> these deficits, you know, six and 7% deficits. That means we have to go out and borrow an extra two or three trillion every year. That's the problem. you know, we're probably never going to pay off that 40 trillion in debt, but if you keep adding to it because you just decide to run, you know, all of these all these administrations, all the last four, they've all run deficits and they don't seem to it doesn't seem to bother them. Nobody worries about in Congress. And so, uh, you keep running deficits and yeah, you you eventually get in a situation where your bond, you know, your bonds are get beat up either way. And I think that's what would have happened no matter what. There's been talk that the bond yields right now, especially the 10-year, is tracking the oil price. Is that true? Certainly, if you look at a chart, they move together, but I I wonder if that's just a coincidence. Well, I I I think people are trying to say that. I But uh I've seen times when they they disconnected as well. So, I don't really I don't really look look at that particularly that that way. Um >> I I can't I can't answer that. I I don't know. I I think they're trading that way. Yes. But I think it's other things too just as just as much as it is oil really. >> Well, are you are you bullish energy right now, Ted? >> Yeah, we own energy. Uh we bought, you know, back in uh early July is when we really put some new things on in the portfolios and part of that was part of that was energy. Yeah, for sure. We Yeah, we still like energy. It's one of in one strategy. It's one of our larger holdings. really >> a lot of great dividends over there. >> Uh energy stocks uh I mean the have you talked to anybody about the underlying um uh prices here crude and of course diesel uh dissolate products are very high right now. Just this week uh Trump has been pressuring G7 countries to release their diesel stocks. He said if you don't release your diesel stocks he was talking to Europeans we're going to ban exports of diesel. Finally, today it looks like the G7 agreed to that. And so, uh, the G7 nations agreed today to release 100 million barrels of reserves to address surging fuel prices, um, specifically diesel. I I wonder if this is going to have any impact. We'll see. Um, but what what's your what's your take on this particular piece of news here? Uh, are are you are you expecting diesel prices to come down after this? >> Well, I think it depends on what happens in Iran, really. Uh I I don't I don't think 100 you know the barrels I don't know how many barrels of diesel I can't say how many we use per day so I don't have that number in front of me but the the problem he would have had by by by not exporting is you know it would it would fix diesel but kill gasoline >> because you know you they go hand in hand at these refineries so you can't you he couldn't really do that. I mean I know they want to talk about it but that'd be a disaster if they did it. So um you know I I I don't know whether it would I don't think this release it's just like when we released out a strategic petroleum reserve didn't work you know and so I I doubt seriously that'll work either. >> I I you know I look at uh a company like let's say I'm just I'm just pulling this out of here for example you know not all energy companies have done well it's you this one in particular has gone down since oil's gone up. So how you know blindly picking an energy services uh company is not the best strategy here because not all of them have done well. How do you pick your energy stocks? Well, you know, give you an idea. You know, one of the things that we did was we bought in the early part of the quarter, we bought gas stocks like uh Apache, which is the is APA now. Um and we we bought Northern Oregon Gas, you know, on an 8% dividend. Uh bought Kimmel Royalty on a 12% dividend. That those kinds of things. See, if you get that kind of cash flow, you don't have to worry too much about about uh how much you're going to get on the capital side. You take on Apache for example, you know, six times earnings. I mean, seven times maybe these companies are really really cheap and so uh we buy them based on that on that look on the service companies. I do think they kick in eventually. They came they came to life to a degree and then they sold off. We don't own a lot. We own slumberj and we own a little company called National Energy Services Reunited that does its work overseas but um but not a lot. I mean it's not that most of ours are producers and gas pipelines and and that's where we really stress it but u they they seem to be okay. You can make a lot of money at $70 oil. I think people forget about that you know yeah it's at 91 or 90 but but you can make a lot of money the other way. I mean, energyy's been the best performing group really this year. >> So, uh I I think people missed the boat on that one. >> Yeah. Let's let's just put this into perspective here. I'm going to show the uh energy um ETF here, XLE. And just to uh illustrate your point, I'll overlay that with the S&P 500 on a percentage change basis. And I think uh let's just do one year. XLE is up 40% and this chart's very slow. 14% on the S&P 500. Um, not every sector in the S&P 500 has done this well. And in fact, let's talk about the breadth deteriorating in the S&P itself. So, uh, Oxbow Advisors published a video just yesterday on your YouTube channel, which I encourage people to check out. I'll put the link down below, in which, uh, Chance Fenuk and CIO talked about the deteriorating breath underneath the S&P 500. So, energy aside, how are the other sectors doing Ted? Well, they're all every sector, all 11 are are on average down 20% from their highs, the stocks in those sectors. And what's happened is the reason the market camouflages is because you have those 20 large companies and they keep the S&P average looking like it's okay. But when you get underneath and you look at what's happening, we have no stocks hitting new 50we two high 50we highs, 52- week highs, and you've got 42 43% of the S&P where uh they're basically 20% off or more of their highs. And so your average comes in poorly. And you're you're having many days now where you have more new lows than new highs. And that's what Chance is talking about. when you have that kind of market and it looks like it's okay because the S&P is not really faltering too much or the NAS or the QQQ the 100 uh it looks like it's okay but underneath it's really not okay and so all you wait on here for really to wrap up the downside in the market is when they come after the big ones uh and I suspect they'll be in 27 as well >> does the market uh right now tell you that the only place that you should be in is tech this is just maybe a contrary ute to what you've been saying. Um, if everything else is deteriorating, does it not logically mean >> that the only place that's of quality is tech? That's what the market's telling you. >> Well, I wouldn't call it quality, but I would call it high prices. >> Okay. You know, there's a difference. And I I don't see, you know, they price those 20 companies so expensive that, you know, you'd have to think that the outlook will be somewhat somewhat dismal for them in a year or so because they priced in so much for those companies. I can't see that working. But on the other hand, uh just to give you an example, the the sector that's the least off of its high this year is energy. It's only down 10 and a half. So, uh, off of the high and so it's the best of the group really as you go along, but there's other things to buy. I mean, we buy single companies. So, we found, you know, we find companies during this during this quarter that we liked. Uh, you know, we just bought Diamondback Energy. We just bought ASML. That's um a lifetic company over in over in the Netherlands. Cheap. These are cheap companies now. Um, uh, will be buying. We have a little company called Cortiva that we a spin-off called VOR. We'll it's the seed business. We'll keep buying VOR too. I mean you a lot of there's a a lot of good companies out there but people forget about them. And u in early July up through about the third week we bought uh went back in and bought a number of gold miners not not fully invested but uh we we picked off some of that stuff. And you know there there's things to buy. You just have to look around, know what know what you own really. >> Well, Ted, can you just go back to your previous statement? Quality is not the same as price. Just explain that from an investor's perspective and based on your experience, why that's different and how people should differentiate between quality and price. You logically think, >> you know, this is just psychology. You you go and buy anything here. Something is priced higher, you instinctively think, well, if the market demands a higher price, it's probably more soughta because it's higher quality. you know this for anything you buy. But how does it not apply to stocks? >> Well, you have to look at uh quality of earnings, you know, and for example, you'll have a lot of people tell you these hyperscalers with their P multiples are not like it was back in 99200. We think where they're going ary on that on that look is this. We think those earnings are not the highest quality. And when you get out further another year or two, people will realize that and say, "Oh, I see now." Um, you know, that they were they they were really betting on the come this whole group betting. They're they're just they're just on the betting on the come line here. They're going to say, "Hey, you know what? U we're think it's going to happen." Well, if it doesn't happen, and that's what we think. We think that the quality of those earnings is not what they say it is. Not to say they wouldn't earn something, but if the quality of the earnings goes down, >> the multiple the multiple of price didn't mean anything because the earnings come off. But if the earnings come off, the multiple usually will follow it right down, too. So, uh I think that when we're talking about quality, that's what we look at and that sort of thing. >> You do own some tech stocks, right? But you you you bought them years ago. >> Um >> well, but we still add if somebody comes in with new money, you know, we're still going to buy them. uh a position in Google. We're gonna buy a position in Apple. You know, oddly enough, uh Texas Instruments hit our screens here a few weeks ago. We we took a a position in a small position Texas Instruments, like I said, ASML. We own uh we own certain companies if they get cheap enough, but um a lot of the a lot of that top 20 uh which accounts for really 50% of the of what goes on in the S&P 500, we they're just they're not where we're where we're going to be concentrating. We find better companies, better earnings, better dividends, better everything than those companies. And they'll run their course in time. Uh and and these other companies will come to the forefront. That's that's typically what happens. >> Okay. What sectors do you really like right now besides oil, which we talked about, and gas? >> Well, on the stock side, it's a mix. You know, we we look at different kinds of we look at all the sectors and different companies. And if you look, like I say, on the stock side, if you look, oddly enough, at just what we've done this quarter, you know, uh we bought Ferrari. Uh people, well, that's kind of strange. We just bought them. Uh but but uh we like we like what we see there and if you look at you know like I was saying we just bought diamond back energy just bought but on the sector if I had to pick out one sector that would say that buying the best buys for cash flow and dividends and everything it's going to be energy um because you can get seven eight n% on the cash flow. I'm talking about the dividend and then you don't need a lot to make 10% a year. You just need three or four or 5% and you have a good investment here. And that's that's that's about the cheapest group that we see right now. We we we like in our in the one strategy we have high income. There's a lot of things we like in there, but we own a lot of foreign companies, >> but we also own a lot of all the different metals in that company. And I think you still have to look at those commodities. and we own uh we own a number of companies in different kinds of commodities, but we really feel like you're going to have to have a commodity piece in your portfolio. >> You know, copper has been uh doing very well, but uh copper has been trading alongside stocks. I'm going to pull up a chart here just to illustrate the point. And a lot of people have been talking about copper as a proxy to the AI trade, which I know you think is overvalued, but by that logic, would copper be, you know, overvalued as well if if it's following stocks here? Let me just find a good chart. But I'll let you answer that for now. >> Well, I know that's what I know that's what they're going to say that it's um it's a proxy for AI, but but if you think if you think about copper, first of all, it takes a long time to to get it out. But if if you think about copper, you need it in so many other things other than AI I'm talking about. So even if you had a slight fall off because AI didn't use as much uh copper will be it's one of those things you want to own the we think at least you want to own this for the next uh 5 to 10 years because we think we're going back into a period where you need to own hard assets and hard assets we think will play better than than soft assets and so I we we would own it we do own it on Southern Copper for example on Freeport Macaran uh And you know, we'll hold those companies. I know they haven't been quite as strong and fallen off a little bit here, but but I think in the long run, and they've been good companies for us over, you know, over the years. So, uh, I think you have to look at it like in the commodity pool that you own and to to us, you're going to have to have some hard assets the next 10 years. Hard assets, including gold, even at $4,100 and interest rates rising. What do you think about the precious metals market, Ted? Well, I mentioned I think last time I talked to you, we bought when gold got down to 4,000 and >> in July, we, you know, we added some with the idea that if it went up, which it did, and it came back, we'd buy some more. >> So, for us, you know, I I think I think, you know, gold, yeah, it could go below 4,000, 38, 3,900, 4,000, whatever. Um, but I think you have to buy it there. I mean, you or buy it here. I'm looking out a year or two, gold is okay, you know, and I I think, you know, these rates are not going to stay high forever and you get the black boxes selling it because rates went up. But look, as long as you've got you have these company and countries that are still buying gold, if they keep on buying gold, which they are, um, then I think you have to go along with them and buy it with them because that's going to be a currency hedge. And if you buy it here, you know, at 41, 42, 4,300 and it falls back some, well, that's okay. You don't look at gold as something you're going to trade tomorrow. So, um, you, you know, just go with it or maybe buy some more and then, you know, add a couple of gold miners. They're really cheap. >> Even now, Ted, they're really cheap. >> Yeah, they've gotten cheap again. Uh, you know, they were they had a run. They got cheap. They were cheap in July and they had a run. Went up. >> Now they've sold them back again. and they're not back quite where they were in July, >> but they're not quite where they were in July, but they've come back. And I think if you don't own any, you can start to buy some, but you know, uh if if you look at what goes on in, you know, in the in the group, I mean, they're just really really really cheap. And we added uh we met in July, we added Alamos Gold, which is a company we really really like a lot. And um but we own you know we we own some gold miners and uh bought one silver miner back in July and it's come back too um hecklemani but uh but they're not on the lows again. And maybe they go maybe if they did we really we would buy some more of them. I know if we were to come back a lot of people are saying u you know gold is coming back to 3,800 3900. Well that's not that far away from where we are right now. So, you know, it's not something uh that we're too worried about really, but I think you should own some if you don't own any. >> Yeah. >> We talked about things to stay away from, including uh you know, potentially overvalued things. What about the US dollar in itself? The DXY. Do you see continued strength here? >> Well, probably in in the short run, I I do. Um I I think >> it's now at the highest level since uh 2025 just to put things into perspective. Yeah, >> I think in the short run. Yeah. I I I think I mean they one of the things you get into with the dollar is that they believe in it less and less. I'm talking about other countries. And so if you look you know since 2014 all of those countries have bought less and less and less treasuries and they have to keep certain amount of money in current in the currency reserve just to for trade and they keep the dollar for that but everything that's excess you know they're buying gold or they're buying hard ass they're buying something else and so eventually I think that catches up with the dollar u dollar's not something I'm I'm I'm sure it's you know it can go up or down for us in here but that's not something I'd want to be investing in right now. >> Appreciate your uh appreciate your insights today. Um I would like to just close off on um some personal finance right now. A lot of people are concerned about how to get by when number one people are concerned about inflation. Uh we talked about energy prices and we talked about how inflation um is is not just a concern for the Fed but also for regular people and this is actually reflected in consumer confidence surveys like the University of Michigan survey as well as a conference board survey. People are also concerned about job prospects with AI coming on board and we're concerned also with um energy prices as a separate category from inflation. I know regular things that we buy are going up like groceries, but people still need to get gas at the pump. So, with all this in mind, uh, and interest rates rising, mortgage rates rising, cost of capital rising, people are wondering how to get by next year and wondering 2027 is going to be tougher. Um, what what what what should people do is the general question I think. Um, if someone wants to know, what should I do with my finances in 2027? How do you answer that question? Well, first of all, you're going to have to spend less because your prices will be higher, you know, and that's been hard for people to do because we live in I want everything right now in society. And I think they'll have to learn really to you have to learn to cut back in that situation. See, you got this two-tiered look too on it, David, where rich people are not worried about anything other than the election. They look at the election. They they don't, you know, they they've got plenty of money to buy everything. They've been using the stock market to buy everything. They're not worried about anything right here, which is maybe they should be, but uh but everyone else is is is finding that that pricing is crimping their style. And the only thing do about that is either get another job that's higher, pays more, or cut back. And there's only really two things you can do to offset it. You know, I grew up really poor, so I understand the game for sure. But um that's that's what you get into when those prices are high and you're not making any more money than you were the year before. And to me that's one of the problems we see and I don't I think in many many businesses we don't pay enough um especially in public companies where we pay you the upper tier so much money and then we don't give the the the rank and file very much at all. So you know maybe that comes home to roost in here somewhere. I don't know. But uh for the people that are in that situation, that's about all you can do. >> Anything that you've observed uh in you know your personal life that's changed in the last year or so. I mean by by the people that you've interacted with, how has this Iran crisis, higher oil, higher interest rates affected people that you've observed and businesses? Well, I don't I don't think it's it's affected a number of companies where the PE and I know a lot of people in business and the people that have to have fuel, a lot of fuel that obviously affected them. Okay. But my refining friends, they're just killing them. They're making so much money. So, it depends on which side you're on, you know, on that. And so, um, but in companies where you're using a lot of diesel, a lot of fuel, you know, obviously they're having to raise the prices on that and they don't have a choice. you know, um, and if you've got small operators that don't have sort of a cola built into it, a cost of living built into it automatically, then the little people really get hurt in this situation. Um, and but I haven't noticed, you know, the one thing I've noticed in real estate, uh, and I say up pretty close to the really high high the high high level markets. I mean, Aspen and and Jackson Hole and Veil places like that. And while it hasn't, it's not negative, everybody's slowed down on the buying. Things are closing slower. >> Uh it's just a sort of thing going on. I don't know if it's the election or what, but that's one of the things we're seeing out there. >> And and then I'll just mention this to you because it's interesting. um the friends of mine and different people I know and maybe a few in customers. Um we had a our portfolios are up for the year and still are up for the year but a lot of a number of people their portfolio it been matter of what they had they came off a little bit maybe a couple percentage points >> in September >> and you would have thought that we were in a bare market >> because they all came undone completely. And I'm thinking myself, man, if you people out there that are fully invested are having trouble with this, wait till you get a really bare market and then see where that puts you. And that's that's one of the reason we carry a lot of liquidity. But, uh, kind of just interesting thoughts on that sort of stuff. >> Just to add to that, I think I've seen similar things here in Canada as well as when I traveled to the US last year, um, this year as well, but last year in particular, I was in Vegas and Colorado for work. And in both places, um, Vegas saw the biggest slowdown in years based on the people working hospitality that I talked to, hotels and casinos and whatnot. Uh, I was on a Uber in Colorado um, in Denver and the guy said, "I've never had such bad business." This was October last year, uh, September. September last year, I was going to the, uh, Denver gold uh, the gold show. Anyway, so it's just Yeah. Um, I I wonder if things have recovered since 2025. I don't know. I haven't I haven't traveled in the US um recently, but if you if you you know if you know, comment down below. Uh Ted, it was great to see you and uh it's great uh talking to you and getting your updates. Where do we follow you? >> Well, the best place, David, is uh oxoadvisors uh.com. That's you'll find everything at the website really. And uh if you want to call us, there's a number there too. Uh and by the way, somebody will answer the phone, not a chat box. So, uh, you you you'll find somebody on the other end of the line. >> Yeah. Good. We'll put the links down below. Thank you very much, Ted. Do follow Oxbow Advisors down below. Thank you. We'll speak soon.