Palantir Could Hit $1,000 (But ONLY If This Happens TODAY)

Palanteer is going to shock the world, but not in the way you think. Now, this company is down 11% over the past 12 months, which is insane to think about given how much of an improvement we've seen in the fundamentals of this business over the past few years, over the past year, over the past 6 months. This company is on a rampage and yet the stock is selling at an 11% discount over the past 12 months. We'll talk about it. We'll also cover a preview of the entire earnings, what to look for, what to anticipate, where the red flags may be. Also, I'll show you my expectations as far as what's coming in the earnings. And of course, my new absolutely never revealed before price target for this stock. And at the end of this video, if you last all the way to the end, I'm going to give you a little bonus, something that you can have during the pant earnings that's going to help you immensely. But first of all, don't click nothing. Don't smash nothing. Don't buy nothing. Let's get started. So, let's start by looking at what Palanteer did so far. They definitely deserve an A+. Net dollar retention is 157, the highest in the stock market. We have $4.5 billion of revenue in 2025. The past 12 months, 6.2 billion already, and going to be way higher than this by the end of the year. Revenue growth is at 93% year-over-year, 240% operating growth, and 57% growth in cash. These are monopoly numbers, folks, and they are real. In the case of Palunteer, at the same time, the stock is down 11% over the past 12 months. And since last year, the forward price to earnings of this company actually went from 76 to 53. It went down dramatically as all of these numbers became a reality. So, first and foremost, let's establish A+. Definitely, the business is getting better. There's no question about it. And the price is getting cheaper. There's also no question about it. Now, you may debate me whether the company was already overvalued and that's why it deserved this or not, but that's a point that we can debate later. At the end of the day, I'm only here to establish one thing. Piloter over the past 12 months has gotten a lot better. The price has gotten a lot cheaper. That's a factual statement. It's not an opinion. Opinions are like buttholes. Everybody's got one. I'm not interested in sharing opinions. I want to give you facts, numbers, and objective data. The guidance right now when you look at Palunteer coming into this quarter is 8.15 billion for the entire 2026. Now the expected numbers are 2.18 billion for this quarter which is a lot. Okay, let's be honest. Massive massive expectations coming into this quarter by the market. No doubt. So if we beat and they guide for good guidance and everything is great, it does not guarantee that the stock price is going to go up in the short term. In fact, there's a real good chance more likely than not that Palanteer beats and still we actually see -5 - 10 - 15%. The only way we actually go up right after the earnings in the short term, not talking about the long term, I'm talking about the short term. The only way these earnings end up in a short-term spike in the share price is if we do these things. We need three bits across the board. Obviously, we need to improve guidance and we need to beat guidance. Number two, we need to beat consensus. And number three, we need to show acceleration. only and only if Palanteer does all three guidance, consensus and acceleration, then we may actually see a stock price increase after these earnings because right now the stock price is actually priced for perfection. Anything short of perfection is going to mean there's going to be a correction. That's just how the stock market works. When you're coming in hot into these earnings, you have to deliver. If you don't deliver on one, two, and three, the stock price in the short term is going to take a hit. It's just a factual statement. Now, let's break it down to actual numbers. The guidance right now is for 2.164 billion for this quarter and an increase in revenues of 83%. That is the official guidance coming into this quarter that we're going to meet. That is sandbagged like it did every quarter. Palunteer gives guidance that they know they can easily beat. that number is going to get beat. There's no doubt in my mind about it. And it is there to actually come in and say, "Hey guys, we beat the guidance." That's not enough. We also need the consensus beat. Now, the consensus right now is 2.18 billion for this quarter and 41 cents earnings per share. That has to be beat as well. And on top of this, no matter how good the revenue growth is, the revenue growth has to be higher than the previous quarter. The previous quarter was 93% year-over-year. We got to get 94% or higher. Okay? In order for Palunteer to have a triple beat. Triple beat in my lexicon basically means guidance, consensus, acceleration. If you beat those three, the stock price is going to go up. The only way to surprise the market to the upside is by delivering incredible results. And yes, I understand all of this incredible. What does it mean in actual numbers? That means this quarter has to be $2.28 billion of revenue. That is the number you're looking for. 2.28, which is a lot higher than the guidance, a lot higher the consensus. They got to beat strong in order to get a short-term spike. It's very hard to get these spikes once you're coming in super hot into the earnings and everybody's expecting you to win. That's the burden of being one of the most elite, fundamentally sound companies in the world. It's just the way it is. Now you can look at this and you can say well Tom why are you so negative? I'm not negative. I'm just being honest. I'm being pragmatic. Now acceleration basically is the whole story of Palunteer. The acceleration in revenues has to happen because the entire story basically is this. We want to show that Palunteer isn't slowing down that the revenue growth is accelerating. Now it is a lot harder to do in percentages when you get bigger and bigger and bigger. Everybody knows that. Look at Nvidia. Look at all these other companies. It's very hard to continue to accelerate. Palente is currently priced to perfection. Okay? And it has to accelerate in order for the stock price to bounce after these earnings. It's just a factual statement. But it doesn't really matter for myself and for you as a long-term investor. Whether that happens or not is not a huge deal. In the words of one of the greatest, in fact, maybe the goat, in fact, the guy who literally wrote the book, the stock market in the short term is a voting machine. It's all it is. But in the long term, the stock market is a weighing machine. So whether this happens or not, whether they have this acceleration and all these fancymancy beats does not matter. If they improve and they continue to improve over the long haul, it's a weighing machine. The stock market is going to price them accordingly. So have no worry about it. Relax. Everything will be okay. Let's go to the next one. Now let's talk about Q2 of 2026. Let's grade that quarter because that quarter had some banger numbers. We're looking at revenue of 1.93 1.93 billion with 93% growth. We're looking at US commercial at 149% growth. We're looking at the operating margin at 62% that went up from 46. We're looking at free cash flow at 63% and 9.5 billion of cash versus zero debt. rule of 40 of 156 which is unheard of and revenue is actually growing three times faster than operating expenses. 93% revenue growth with 34% growth in operating expenses again unheard of a company of this size that revenues are growing way faster than operating expenses with rule 40 156 and the Ford P is actually coming down and the stock is cheaper 11% of the past 12 months and it's growing at 93%. Obviously, these are insane numbers. Definitely, they deserve an A+ for the previous quarter. There's no doubt about it. But now we get to the interesting part. Let's talk business. So, we ran stock MVP on Piloter and we were actually blown away because on Stock MVP, Piloter scored 98 out of 100. This is literally the highest score we have ever gotten on stock MVP. And this is not manipulated. I can't impact these scores. It's hardcoded into the way the scorecard works. So, I had nothing to do with it. If you look at growth, all the points, margins, all the points, liquidity, all the points, balance sheet, all the points, scalability, all the points, the only two points they've lost is because they're lacking 2% of institutional holding in order to get to all 100 points, which is ridiculous. This is as close as you will ever get to a perfect company. And that's not me saying that. That's literally the stock MVP scorecard. You can try out Stock MVP, stock-mpp.com, a platform I've built for you to analyze any stock in a matter of seconds. Try it for one week for free. It's yours. Let's move on. Let's talk about what needs to be better because nothing is perfect except your wife and my wife. They are perfect, no doubt. Just the way they are. But no company is perfect. There's certainly things that need to be improved and Palunteer is no exception. The one thing that they need to work on the most in my opinion is just client concentration. Palanteer has way too many clients holding on to way too big contracts. So that if one client leaves, the impact on revenue is huge. Now the odds of one of the big anchor clients leaving is virtually zero. But theoretically speaking, you don't want client concentration so that every single client is so impactful on you. You want to spread it around as much as possible. So they need bigger clients and more of them in order to reduce that concentration. The other thing is they have almost no international presence. In fact, more than 85% of the entire money they make comes strictly from the US. We need more European presence. As hard as it sounds, and it is hard, and as hard-headed the Europeans are, and they are, Pilentia has to break into the international market, specifically into the European market, which they haven't so far. The other thing I want to point out, and it's getting better, okay, we're down from 16%, but we're still high. 13.7% of revenue went to stockbased compensation. I'm all for it. I think it's great. I'm not against stockbased compensation, but I think at some point we need to start seeing this number come down into the single digits. Another thing they need to improve. But I'm going to tell you right now, if these are my only problems with this company, I'm pretty much nitpicking. Let this be my only issues with Palunteer forever. I'm buying it right now. Now, let's move on. As far as what I'm watching in these earnings, and this is super important. I want you to pay attention. Number one, US commercial revenue. I want it to be at 950 million. Okay? It's very important it does that with a fullear guidance of 3.6 billion. It's going to show me that the commercial revenue growth is on pace to where Palunteer needs to be in order to make that quantum leap. The other thing is Q4 guidance of 2.5 billion. Basically, Palunteer needs to come out and say, "Hey, next quarter, we're going to do 2.5 billion per quarter." That's also super important. Total revenue. And the other three things I'm watching is US commercial total contract value of 2.13 billion. That needs to go up. Remaining deal value 6.24 billion. That needs to go up. And net direct tension, as hard as it sounds, of 157, that needs to go up. And obviously the rule of 40 I would love to go up as well. Now let's move on to the next item. About you know couple years ago 2023 I made this post on X and the share price was $18.89 when I made this post and what I said is Palunteer is the real deal. Okay. The doubters and skeptics are now slowly pivoting but not fast enough. This stock, even after the 11% decline we've seen the past year, is now 10 times more than it was back when this post was made in 2023. So, when I was making my models and showing people that my price target was $500 per share and people called me crazy, I told them, "Hey, you ain't seen nothing yet." And I'm here today to give you another bold prediction that's going to piss off a lot of people, but I don't care. My bold prediction is that my bullcase assumption, my bullcase price target of $500 per share has now become actually my barecase. And a little bit more about that in the next few slides. But first, how I come to this number? Why does 500 all of a sudden becomes my barecase? So basically what this means, I don't think Palanteer will be anywhere below $500 per share. That's the floor of Palunteer. Why? Well, the numbers are on the screen. You can look at them, you can audit them, you can run your own models, but basically I assumed a declining revenue growth rate for the next few years. 90, 85, 80, and so forth and so forth. I assumed 38% net margin, 35 PE, 35 PE, and that gives me a price per share of $495, which is an upside of 170% from this point. 170% on Palunteer over the next few years is my bare case, the absolute minimum. Now I want to show you my base case. This is the medium case. Now my medium case assumes a similar declining revenue growth of 95 90 85 80 just the same as the previous model but net margin goes up to 42%. And now I'm assuming the market is going to be willing to pay for this company 45PE. At 45P PE, this is a $717 stock and upside of 290%. 219% in just a few years on the company that's already by a lot of experts are overbought. I see this as a huge upside. Now, of course, I also have my bullcase and this is my new bullcase. My new bullcase assumes the same revenue growth pattern with 46% net margin 55 PE in 2030. That's going to give us $978. So basically my new price target for Palunteer is $1,000 and $431% upside from this point, which I think we're going to be a lot closer to after these earnings. Whether it spikes the share price right away or not doesn't matter. What I want to see is improvement. And that's exactly what I want you to do. What I want you to do when we start looking at these earnings today, what I want you to do, number one, don't buy or sell the stock into earnings. Do not do it. Never, never, never. Leave it alone. Number two, I want you to stay the course, whatever DCA, double down, continue to DCA as normal. What I want you to do in these earnings is focus strictly on one thing, which is the business and the fundamentals. Don't refresh the stock price to see how the stock price is being impacted by these earnings at any given moment. That's actually cancerous to your long-term investing mindset. Let's just listen to the earnings. Let's follow the numbers and let's see how it does towards the business, towards the fundamentals. And also, I actually made a little cheat sheet for you, a one pager with everything you need to watch in these earnings. So, you can follow along the earnings with this one pager cheat sheet. You can get it right now and take notes and follow along with my cheat sheet during the earnings. The link is below in the description and in the pin comment. It's absolutely free. Go get it right now. And of course, if you want to join the academy, we're over 40,000 members in the academy right now. patreon.com/domash. Would love to have you there. And I'll see you on the earnings call. Peace out.