Tech Stocks Plunge, Here’s What’s Next

for me to make a video on a Friday, you know, Flapjack's got to be falling straight through the floor. And that's what we have going on out there. Ladies and gentlemen, look at the damage. Intel stock down 31% plus. SanDisk down 16% here day. AMD down 12%. Uh Core Weeaves down to 54. Like it's just obliteration out there in the tech world, right? Uh officially Q's just hit a uh correction territory down 10%. So we're gonna have a lot to go through in this video here today, ladies and gentlemen. Okay. Uh yeah, busy days for a Friday. So we'll talk about, you know, stocks. I want to talk about some of the best opportunities out there in the market in my personal opinion. Things like that. Uh I also want to explain why this is happening, right? Like why is this occurring? Because we have multiple things going on right now that's sending all these stocks down. So, I want to explain that in detail. So, I want to react to this video here. Uh, I think that's going to be a really important one to react to. And then I also want to react to this one regarding Amazon and Mark Mahaney's view on Amazon. So, I want to react to that one. Um, obviously Amazon in my opinion is an incredible opportunity out there for long-term investors. So, lot to go through in this video here today. One thing, one thing I only need from you guys, just smash that like button if you haven't already done so. Hit that little thumbs up icon. lets me know you enjoy me, you know, covering a Friday video for you guys, cuz I almost never do a Friday YouTube video. It's extremely rare. Usually on Fridays, I um, you know, I kind of like do a half day essentially. I'll post for my Patreon. I post a video for my private group and like call it a day usually cuz it's busy times and you know, Monday through Thursday like you know, some days I'll work 12, 14 hours. So, lot going on. Okay, so a few things to let me just say this. Uh because I think in whenever you're in one of these sorts of markets, uh people are looking for like uh me to be a therapist a little bit. I always see the comments like you know and this has always been like this like you know when wherever we're going through a correction or a crash in the market people are like you're my you're my therapist, right? Um let me tell you my view on this market. Let me tell you my views on a crash and those sorts of things. Um and just kind of like where my head's at, right? So, let me say this. When I played football, I played tackle football for five years. So, tackle football, uh, obviously a very physical sport. Um, and it's a sport in which you can never underestimate your enemy. You can never underestimate your opponent. You underestimate your opponent. That's how you could create a game where you know in my team we were generally like almost always like the favored team to win essentially, right? But we could never go into a game and think like this is an easy game or this is going to be a walk in the park for us or you know we're going to get to play all the backups in this game. We always had to take it like like this is the hardest opponent ever. And the reason you had to do that mentally is so you prep for the worst case scenario. So then you know if it ends up actually being a tough game, you're not caught off guard and you don't panic. So the same thing I you know applied in football is the same thing that you know and what I was taught by my coaches the same thing I apply to the stock market nowadays. I always kind of prep for the worst case scenario. So when I'm greeted with uh you know a NASDAQ down 10%. To me that's to be expected right like that's to be expected mentally. I'm also preparing for much worse. That does not mean I'm expecting much worse, but I'm preparing for worst case scenario. I'm preparing for a full-on market crash, right? Mentally preparing for that. I'm always that way. I'm never caught off guard. I'm never in like a panic situation, right? I've been in the market 18 years now. And I know everybody always laughs because they're like, you know, you always bring up how long you've been in the market and those sorts of things, but I say that because I am of the understanding that, you know, if you're in your first few years of investing and you're going through a NASDAQ down 10%, that could be a big deal for you. You could be scared. You could be like, "Oh my gosh, you know, you could be selling your stocks. You could be, you know, having FOMO about like this is the greatest deals ever." And those sorts of things, right? When you've been in the market 18 years, I've seen everything. I've seen at least three crashes in the NASDAQ down 30% plus in my 18 years of being in the market, right? Seen several large corrections. I've seen a ton of small corrections like what we're going through right now, a 10%ish down for the NASDAQ. And I've seen a million pullbacks in the 18 years I've been in the market. Right? So, for me, as an experienced investor, it's this is pretty easy to get through. This isn't even like like like this is like you know let's say you're a great long distance runner and you got you know you're used to running 15 miles and you know you're running like 2 miles you're like this is a walk in the park. That's what this is to me. But I'm of the understanding this is not a walk in the park for everybody cuz if you've never been through this and all a sudden you know this stock you hold is down 20% from its all-time high. you're like, "Oh my gosh." Right? The moral of the story is here, whenever you get these sorts of opportunities in the market, you got to take full advantage. You got to take full advantage and don't think you're buying the bottom. Some people like, you know, think they're buying the bottom. Don't assume you're buying the bottom. Do not do that. Like, assume it's might even go lower. Like, you know, if you're going out there and you're buying and let's say you want to buy AMD stock, okay? An AMD stock's trading at whatever it's trading at today. AMD is at uh, you know, 494. So, you're like, "Okay, I want to go buy AMD." Assume you're going to buy it at 394. Also, you might not, and you probably won't, but just just like be mentally prepared for what if that happens, right? Next up here, let's talk about why is this occurring? Like, what is going on here in the market, right? Let me explain this, okay? the best possible way I can. Okay, by the way, let me let you guys know about something before we talk about if a market crash is coming, all that good stuff. The ThousandX sale is now ongoing. The Halloween sale, I got the link early. So, that will I'll put that as the pinned comment down there here today for all you guys that want access to 1000X in detail. We'll send your Steel membership cards over once you join us in there, all that good stuff. Um, that'll be pinned comment. I'll tell you more about it later in the video, but um just want to let you guys know that sale is ongoing. Okay. Um literally just started. So, you know, what are my views about a crash of the market? I would call it lower probability. If I had to put a odds on a crash, you know, in the next 12 months, let's say we already started, I'd put it at like 25%. Which you might view as a high, but actually that's not a very high probability, right? There's still three times higher probability we don't have a crash than we do, right? Um, you know, why is this occurring? Intel, Intel is a huge component of why this is occurring. Amazon and Google is another huge reason. And and let me explain both these differently because they're actually both contradicting each other, which is actually fascinating what's going on right now in the market. Okay, so Google and Amazon said something very scary. They're talking about substantially increasing capex next year ma like in a major way. That's scary. These companies are already going huge free negative free cash flow and their numbers are going to pick up over the next several quarters and now they're talking about next year they're taking it to another level and you know not like there's going to be a modest capex increase. They're talking about like substantially like you know like basically like guiding to like we're going to up it in a big way again next year, right? That's that's very scary cuz you're like how how negative free cash flow these companies going to go. How much are they going to have to dilute shareholders to make this happen? How much debt are they going to need to take out to make this happen? Right? In Amazon's case, they might have to take out fortunes of debt which has to then you got huge interest expense and that debt needs to be paid back at some point in time, right? So now you could be looking at Amazon as a massively debt laden company within the next two to three years, right? With a company like Google or maybe even a Meta or some of these other companies, they're going to dilute shareholder value. So now we're looking at these companies that used to take shares off the market and be massive um you know buyback companies. Now we're looking at these companies and they're they're turning into companies that are now going to be diluting shareholders, right? And issuing more shares. And so your ownership percentage ends up shrinking instead of increasing when they do buybacks. When they dilute your your ownership stake is is shrinking actually, right? And so that's that's a negative dynamic out there, right? But you would usually look at that and you say, "Okay, well that's great news for semiconductors. That sucks for all those big tech companies that are going to spend, you know, crazy amounts next year." But hey, semiconductors, we're good, baby. You own AMD, you own Micron, you SanDisk, any of these semiconductors are good, right? The issue happened with Intel. So Intel, first off, let me say this, okay? Intel's a hunk of junka company, okay? It's a really it's a real piece of junk. It's down 55% from its highs, by the way. Um, but you know, anybody that's been tracking the semiconductor industry over the last several years, um, you know, you you know, Intel is not a good company. It's not a quality company. But what happened is Intel just scared everybody in the semiconductor space. You know what happened? They said PC demand is going to be slower and they're saying basically that business is going to be light, right? Listen, that scared everybody cuz now people are assuming, oh boy, Intel and they cited memory prices being an issue. Intel's looking light. Oh boy, that means AMD is going to be light, which then that means the memory chip stocks are going to be light on revenue and and maybe even EPS, right? And so then you start running to all these conclusions because of Intel, because of Intel, but that's what's going on right now. So you got a very weird dynamic where these massive tech companies just told you they're going to have to up capex another major way next year. And yet all the semiconductor stocks are crashing right now because of Intel doesn't make sense. So the thing I would say like do I think semiconductors are going to crash more or do I think they're going to boom for the next six months? Let's just call it November through April. My belief is they're going to go through a riper rally the next six months. Now, I'm not going to place short-term call option bets on these companies. I'm not going to buy extra shares of any of these companies, but I would say the November through April setup. And keep in mind, a lot of times the market bottoms right around Halloween. Now, also, I want to bring up 2018 cuz we could be in a 2018 dynamic where everything just keeps tanking through November into December and we don't bottom until Christmas, okay? Or around Christmas. That's always possible, but that's a lower probability event. So I would say the higher probability is semiconductors go through a ripper rally November through April and uh it's party times and you look at these stocks you know four to 6 months from now and all their stock prices are substantially higher than where they're at right now. So the sell off in semiconductors doesn't make sense. I'll say that. Right. And and by the way, all these stocks, there's going to be a day when these stocks all do sell off. And it does make sense because it's like, oh, you know, the semi-trade is gonna start slowing in a major way. Numbers are going to get tough for these companies. That's still two two to three years away. We're not even close. We're not even close. So, right now, we're still in these companies have to up capex in a major way and they have to spend every dollar coming in, right? AMD's got basically three to four years of massive growth ahead almost like guaranteed. Uh the memory chip stocks they've got one to two years of massive growth ahead basically like guaranteed right. Um, Nvidia has at least one more year of massive growth ahead, right? And so all these semiconductor stocks by the way are going to be at different stages and uh you know the good the good thing you you could say well if Nvidia only has one more year of massive growth ahead that's scary. Uh not really. You know why? I'll explain why. Nvidia doesn't trade at a rich valuation. Nvidia's forward P is probably like 20 is like 20 like a 20 FordP on Nvidia. So, it's not scary. If Nvidia was trading at 100 Ford P right now, it'd be scary. It'd be like, "Oh crap, Nvidia's probably only got one more year of massive growth and then they're going to have, you know, slow growth rates after that." Boy, that's scary. And maybe margins going down after that. That would be scary. But when you're trading at a 24p, it's not it's not scary like that, right? That doesn't mean the stock can't go down a year from now or 6 months from now or something like that, but it just like, you know, it takes a lot of the scariness out of it because the valuation isn't up there. So, something to keep in mind there, right? So, you're having obviously substantial damage out there. Intel down 31% here. SanDisk down 14%, AMD down 12%, coreweave down over 10%. Look at the snowflake move 9% there. MU down almost 7% here today. I mean, yeah, there's a lot of damage out there. Certainly, right? Especially with big tech stocks. If I go up and pull my personal stocks up here, right? I mean, you know, I got some greens today. Celsius is green. Celsius the wealthiest. Nike's green. Wind's green. Cake's almost green. That's crazy, man. Cake is just extraordinary. Look at that stock. Almost green on a day when stocks are just getting absolutely obliterated, right? Um SAS louder. Say it louder for the people in backs. hardly down. Netflix is hardly down, right? But, uh, it's really those semiconductor related stocks. Honest getting hammered today, too. That doesn't make any sense. Honest. Honest, I told you guys that stock exits this year. $5 plus. I continue to believe way over $5 is where we exit the year. So, on Honest, so that one remains a big buy. RH having a little pullback here today, but that one's been redhot. Service Now, O that's brutal, man. I mean, that stock got hammered yesterday and then to be down another 5% here today. That's no fun, right? Salesforce not getting hit nearly as hard as Service Now. It got hit yesterday, but not even remotely close to as much as Service Now. And then, um, not really getting hit today either, 1%. So, maybe people know what I know. I don't know. We'll see. We'll see what happens there, right? Um, as far as the housing trade, that is nothing going on too crazy. We got tech specific problems. You know, tech specific problems is what we have going on out there in the marketplace. I posted this on my X page. I'm not sure if you guys follow me on X, that's always linked in the description area down there if you use that. Uh Core Weave's now down 71% from its highs. Intel 55% down from its highs. SanDisk 52% down from its highs. Google McDougall 31% down from highs. Micron MU down 30% from highs. AMD 25% down from highs. Meta's 21% down from highs. So both of those are in um uh you know those are large corrections basically these 30% plus moves those ones are all in crash well these are in a crash micron in Google SanDisk Intel and coreweave those are in what I call a mega crash okay when you talk about 50% plus that's a mega crash going on in those stocks Amazon 16% move and then the cues is at uh 10% there okay let's go ahead and react to this Intel video we'll talk more about this and uh what this means for the market and then we'll get into amazing right now is BFA Securities senior semiconductor analyst Vivic Arya. Vivic, let's take a look at this. The stock is off 25% this morning. Obviously, still up over >> Oh, hey, listen. It went down more, 31% actually >> the last year, but wow, that is a massive decline in one day to watch all of this disappear. You've just come out with a new note where you are cutting it, your rating on this company to a neutral from a buy. Um I guess that means that even with this 25% drop, you wouldn't tell people to wager to to wade into the water at this point. What happened? >> Yeah, thank you Becky. Good morning. Uh so um I think the AI is not um you know helping all boards rise at the same time. You know there are parts of the market that are doing extremely well uh that have to do with AI token demand with AI capex um right with uh cloud service growth. But what that is doing is that is creating a squeeze on the supply that is required for other parts of the market such as consumer uh PCs and smartphones. And I think that is what Intel is having to grapple with that its data center business is doing extremely well. But parts of its business that have to deal with consumer and the PCs is not doing well. And I think that is just a tough mix for the company which has to invest in its factories to help attract external demand over the next few years. So I think it's it's it's a multi-quarter issue which is why we thought the best thing is to wait on the sidelines and see how it makes progress in ex uh getting external customers or uh improving its uh data center business. >> Yeah, it's a big deal for the PCs. I mean that's still 50% of their business, isn't it? >> Yeah, you know PCs is kind of the core of uh the company. It is a important part of their uh production. U you know there's a lot of uh IP that they share between the PC and the data center. uh market. So, you know, it's not all u you know, being wasted. Uh but the problem is that the exposure to the PC market is still larger than their exposure to uh the data center market. And within the data center market, the good news is that the demand is off the charts, right? I mean, their data center business grew the fastest in the last 15 years, right? It was up almost 60% yearonear. Now it's still not growing as fast as what we see from AMD and Nvidia and and a lot of the ARM uh based uh suppliers but it is still growing uh pretty fast. The problem of course as you mentioned is that it is not able to offset uh the weakness and the sudden drop in demand uh you know because it budgets are not growing as quickly. So if they're having to invest more in AI that means they have less money to invest in upgrading their uh PC infrastructure. You mean their their their their corporate customers are no longer upgrading in the same sort of cycle and fashion that they did because they're taking so much of their budget and and pushing it towards AI, the new technology that's out there. >> Absolutely. You know, there is kind of a fixed uh pie uh that uh customers uh need to spend. So, a lot more is going into spending on AI tokens as an example, right? Which is why we see off the charts growth in AI, right? We recently heard from Amazon, Google, Microsoft, you know, cloud business is up between 40 and 100%. Token demand is up by a factor of 10, you know, 10x. Uh, capex intentions are uh very strong. So, I think that part of the business is doing very strong. The problem is Intel is not as exposed to that part of the economy. It is a lot more exposed to the part of the economy that is sort of on the other side uh right which is getting squeezed and I think that's what we are seeing in their numbers and and the stock performance right now. Vivic, we've always looked at these businesses as cyclical that you're going to see ups and downs uh not just with what you're talking about with PCs, but also with um you know enterprise demand for AI and other things too. There's this question right now whether the AI part is either no longer cyclical or just deals with much longer cycles. Are do you think it would be right for Intel to chase the AI part of this or do you think that eventually runs the risk of of coming down where we've overbuilt? We had u yesterday Gary Con talking about how we build out everything. Maybe we build this out too far too. Should they stay with one foot firmly planted in the, you know, the the PC business, the consumer business, the rest of this? Do you want to see them chase AI? What what's your hope as somebody who follows and recommends this company? >> Sure. I think Becky, we have to differentiate between demand and near-term economics. And from that perspective, the story of what we are seeing in the broader market in AI is very similar to what we are seeing at Intel. Right? So, if you look at the broader market, demand for AI as I mentioned is off the charts. The problem though is that we have to spend uh to create this infrastructure for growth that might come over the next few years. So there is kind of a mismatch between demand. >> How how do I say it as simple as this? Listen AMD has been eating Intel's lunch for years, like the last decade. They've been taking massive amounts of market share, right? AMD has been owning Intel and it remains like that to this day. And so Intel is just, you know, they're just a very weak company. Very weak company. They've been a weak company, right? Like look at look at the the charts here on thousandx.com for Intel, right? Does this look like a strong company to you? Look at this. Look at this. Right? Look at the margins. Does this look like a strong company? Look at the earnings per share of this company, right? And this is what's supposed to be coming, right? But look at this, right? And let's be clear, like the only reason Intel's even getting any lift in their business right now is just because you happen to be in a huge semiconductor boom where these companies need whatever you got, right? Um if it wasn't for that, it would be even a lot uglier for this company, right? Um you know, look at the free cash flow of this company over time. Does this look like a high quality company to you? Look at the shares outstanding going up up up. Everything you look at with this company is it's bad, right? It's just a bad company. like there's no other way of putting it, right? Um and so, you know, the fact that the market is freaking out about this and selling everything in the semiconductor space for a bad company, a bad quality company is ridiculous. It would be like, I don't know, let's say we're talking retailers, okay? And let's say uh I think Kmart went bankrupt a long time ago, but let's say Kmart was still a public company. And like Kmart came in and they reported bad results. And so then Target stock got sold. Everybody sold their Target stock and everybody sold their Walmart stock and everybody sold their Costco stock because Kmart came in with bad results. We all we'd all be like it's Kmart. Like Kmart's trash like like we're going to sell off all the quality stocks because Kmart coming in came in with bad numbers. Like what are we doing here? Right? And that's the situation here. Intel's like the Kmart of semiconductor stocks and if it wasn't for the government infusion of money into this company and then this huge semiconductor boom, this company might be bankrupt. Like seriously, they might be bankrupt. Um, they got saved. Let's be very crystal clear about that. And so it's amazing, man. You know, the whole semiconductor stocks getting sold off today. And uh for Kmart, that's Intel Kmart. And in economics I think it's the same situation or a similar situation that's happening at Intel. Their strategy is absolutely right. Right. Uh they are growing well in the data center. You know they're investing in their manufacturing uh facilities. The problem is that investing in manufacturing facilities and getting the results from that is a 3 4 5 year process whereas a lot of the capex has to be front and loaded. So in some ways I think there is kind of that mismatch between demand and economics. So I think Intel strategy is right. It's just that it's going to >> time they catch up. Is the demand still going to be there for AI? I guess what you're saying is you think this AI demand is here to stay and it's not going to change over the next two three years as Intel chases it. >> Absolutely. I think it's it's more than just AI demand. I think Intel is an incredibly important source of US domestic manufacturing. We absolutely need diversification and chip chip supply. We cannot just be dependent on you know handful of suppliers in Asia as much as they are very critical and they are investing in the US but Intel has to be successful as kind of the leading domestic suppliers. It just is going to take it time. It's going to take it multiple years. It's going to require a lot of capex. We are in very early stages of that. So I think the strategy is right. I think the demand will absolutely be there because there is demand for leading edge technology manufacturing but it's getting harder for them to match the strength they are seeing today with all the investments that have to come before they realize a lot of that demand >> you know I really want to be in top tier companies if I'm going to be playing you know in different spaces and so what do I mean by that like a company like Intel why would I want to be in Intel if I'm going to be in in something semiconductor related in the space I want to either be in Nvidia at AMD and that's it, right? And so obviously you guys know I put my chips on AMD instead of Nvidia, right? Which has been uh a great decision because Nvidia has kind of been, you know, just stuck, let's call it like the stock was over 200, you know, around this time last year and you still look at the stock and it's right about 200 bucks, right? Meanwhile, AMD has been flying and AMD's growth rates are going to be much faster in 2027 as a whole than than Nvidia, right? But with that being said, if you told me, you know, I have to buy something in the space, like those are two I want to be in. Broadcom's good company. I don't want to be in Broadcom. Intel trash company. I don't want to be in Intel. Like, you know, in let's say I wanted to play something memory related. I'd much rather be in like a Micron versus a SanDisk or something like that, right? Like I'm always going to try to look for a higher quality than uh a lower quality in these sorts of environments, right? I'm gonna look for the more growth uh but a high quality company at the same time. And so Intel's just not high quality. It's very very low quality. We call it LC. We call it Kmart. Okay. Let's talk about some amazing Z on. And then you know what I'll do? I'll tell you what my favorite Mag 7 stocks are to buy right now. Like what's my favorite one? Which one's the best buy? And then uh which ones maybe I'm least interested in it aggressive AI spending plan. So, that has not changed. The company continuing to project. >> No, no, let's do it right now. Let's do it right now before we get into this video. What's my What's the best buy in Mag 7 right now for a long-term investor? What's the worst buy? Uh worst buy Tesla. You know, Tesla least interesting of the bunch by a large margin. Um, best I would say it's tough. It's really tough right now because valuations have gotten more compelling. I would say the most attractive riskreward right now is I've got to give it to Amazon. It's tough though. It's very tough because there's a the close second right behind it is Meta and the close third behind it is Google. like those companies are like all three of them I think are are really interesting buys. Google really got my attention with this latest quarterly results. I you know Wall Street walked away from that very negative. I walked away from those results for Google feeling the best I felt about Google in quite some time. Obviously it's a smaller position for me in the public account but I walked away I walked away from those results feeling even better about Google than Meta and Amazon. Right? And that doesn't mean I feel bad about I mean man met Meta I kind of feel a little bad about that one's just like the spend's out of control and they just don't have the business lined up to really generate these crazy growth rates right um we're hoping like Muse can be something big someday but we we don't have any definitive proof with AWS at least you got the growth rates right like they're putting up the growth rates 39% they're talking about 40% plus next year and the year after like you you got something there right? Something real. Google the growth rates are insane for Google Cloud and you know 3%. Uh latest quarter like it's got the growth right. So yeah, you know um outside of that Apple it's not super interesting. I don't think it's it's horrible. I think Microsoft's actually a pretty interesting buy. We ran valuations on that. probably I I would say it likely produces a teens um a teens return per year for the next four or five years. So let's call something between like 13% and maybe 19% return or so that's good solid. It should beat the market over the next four years. Um and then uh who else might Nvidia's a decent buy, but I I don't love it here. You know, I would still much rather be in AMD. Like AMD has real potential to double and triple in the next 24 months to 36 months. AMD double and triple in the next 36 months. Very unrealistic in my opinion because we going to have those much slower growth rates, you know, starting at the end of next year and then moving into future years. So, um, okie dokie. Let's go ahead and react to Wall Street. >> That capital expenditures of $220 billion for the year. That's a forecast that sent the shares lower. And joining us right now to break down some of those numbers, Mark Mahaney, his Evercore head of internet research. Good morning to you. I wasn't that surprised by their numbers, Mark. But I'm surprised that the market's taken it the way it has given maybe the way they've reacted to some of the Google numbers, but the Google story is kind of different. What do you think's going on here? >> Well, I think you're right. There's a big difference between Google results and the better results and these results, but all three of them had pretty strong negative market reactions. With Amazon, it's three things. Uh the the market wanted 40% plus, you know, low 40s AWS growth and it only got 39%. It accelerated but not by as much as the market wanted. The market got uh 12% ad revenue growth and the market had wanted something more like 18 19%. So that was a disappointment. And then the cash flow uh came in worse than expected. The street was thinking maybe 10 billion, a negative free cash flow. It came in at a record uh amount that was closer to 30 billion. I I think there answers to all three of these. I I think this is what's called a what I call an expectations correction, not a fundamentals correction. AWS revenue growth accelerated for the sixth straight quarter uh in a row. And then they laid out these goals for the next two years of 40% plus AWS growth. At that scale, I think that's really impressive. and the margins were good at at AWS. Advertising just had some comp issues and they went out of their way to kind of normalize the ad revenue growth rate and pretty strongly suggest it's going to get back closer to 20% high teens in the next quarter. And then the um the negative record free cash flow. Well, that's because the capex got pulled forward. They didn't change the capex for the full year. It's just that it was a lot heavier in Q3 than the street had expected, which actually means Q4 is going to have positive free cash flow. So, you know that look, this company is still going through a major investment cycle, but I I I look at this as an overreaction. I like Amazon as a stock. >> Yeah, it's a number one pick and it's my number one buy even here off the correction. I didn't I don't like corrections on my top picks, but you know, it's happened and I understand why. I just think there are answers to all three of those main major concerns. >> Okay, so 226 bucks. If we're sitting here together a year from now, what do you think it's worth? Well, I think this thing gets back to I think this thing gets back to doing like 25 times earnings. I think what the market needs to see are two or three things. They need to see the we need to see the end the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of this uh free cash flow hole that the company's going to go through next year. I think it's going to be about 50 billion in negative free cash flow. >> This is where I think everybody's making a big mistake. Big mistake with these big tech companies. Okay? Big mistake. Listen, don't assume like these companies are going to like just their stocks are going to go crazy over the next year, right? It's possible, but I I wouldn't be super bullish on them necessarily in the very short term, meaning the next 6 to 12 months. Is it possible Amazon, you know, over the next 12 months goes to 300 plus and Meta goes to 900 and blah blah blah. It's possible, but I'm just like the these companies do have a lot of headwinds, right? They got the economy, which the consumer's in a weaker spot. We know that. Look at the consumer sentiment. look at the company numbers. Um, we're just seeing a lot of weak numbers across the board. Um, for anything that's really dealing with the consumer, the AI related stuff, for like business spending is fine, but anything consumer related looks weak right now. Very, very weak, right? So, that's something to kind of keep in mind there. And, um, and and so, uh, you know, I would say don't get your hopes up that these stocks are going to go blasting higher in the short term. Like I'm just like, you know, like you nearly need to be thinking about these sorts of companies in a 5year span. If you're thinking about just over the next 12 months, you could be set up for disappointment. Um like I'm not getting my hopes up around any of these stocks, Amazon, Meta, Google, um any of these big techs. I'm not getting my the only one I would say I have my hopes up on and that I think could blast higher in the shorter term is AMD, right? AMD. Outside of that, no. flow next year. But as if we can go through next year and get some confidence that that's the that's the worst of the of the that's the trough of the free cash flow loss then and I think that's what's going to happen. We'll probably know that I don't know a quarter or two into the year. Then I think you'll get a real unlock on the stock. I also I'm looking for new product catalyst and there's one coming. It's launching and that's project LEO which is going to go commercial by the end before the end of this year. that'll also actually be very beneficial for the P&L because they'll start capitalizing some of those rock that manufacturing expenses. So, those are the those are the two things I'm really looking for, but it's most important for I think for investors is show me when uh when can I get confidence that the worst uh of the the free cash flow losses is is behind me. >> Yeah. And Mark, really it's the street wants to to know that the capex that's being spent right now does have a a way to profitability. Becky, quick, >> last night on the earnings call, Andy Jazzy said that he sees a clear line of sight to profitability for all of this. Do you? >> Uh, yeah. And I think there's some evidence right in the numbers. I mean, the uh the margins at AWS are close to 40%. And if they can do they can keep margins relatively close to where they are today and grow 40% topline the next two years. I mean you're going to get uh you're going to get back to substantial free cash flow perhaps as early as 28 and very likely in 29. So yeah, I think so. And then they also gave you a backlog number. Their backlog grew 80 billion sequentially and there wasn't any one deal in there. It was very diverse set of um of new deals that were signed up. So I just think you have a lot of visibility into demand and the track record that they're showing with their cloud business. The most important one is showing rising margins by the way as a company as a whole gave you record operating margins last night and I think those margins are going to continue to move higher uh in the next couple of years. You're at record operating cash flow. So it's really a matter of when the capex spend. Amazon stands for always a buy, baby. Okay, speaking about always a buy, we got that thousand XCL ongoing right now. That's for the entire research platform. That's what I use on a day in dayout basis. Um, you get access to everything. And so, make sure you guys take advantage of that. It's the last sale for any product I have for 2026. And, um, the sale will be over shortly. So, pinned comment down there to get access to that. We'll send you your Steel membership card to your house once you join us in there. And, uh, yeah, enjoy it, guys. All righty. Much love and have a great