The Big 3: PLTR, ORCL, PANW

review and subscribe. But welcome back to trading 360. I'm Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks, three charts for you today. Rick Duquette will be taking us through those charts here to take us through his picks today. Joe Teague the portfolio manager of the equity investments. Joe great to have you back on now what a week we're we're kicking off here. I mean we have increased conflict in Iran. We've got some agreement between Ukraine and Russia about attacking refineries. That's just coming across the wire. We've got a market entirely in the red on the potential for an AI slowdown. We've got oil above $100 a barrel. I could go on and on. How are you looking at things right now, particularly this AI sell off? Yeah. Thanks for having me, boy. Yeah. You just rattled off a big list. It's what me worry. I mean, the market just is faced with this forever. Just this endless concerns. And yeah, these are very real, legitimate concerns. And I don't want to downplay any of them. But going back to your last guest, the earnings are what's critical, of course. So I want to focus in on this AI story today, even though I think that pipeline story, Saudi Arabia is very important, something I'm watching closely. But on the AI front, watching Dario's comments this weekend, I think he can be right. And also trying to thread a very fine needle here for his self-interest. Yes, AI needs to be regulated. AI is very scary, and it's very hard to track these self-learning models in real time. That can be true, but it's also very valuable if you're telling your customers, hey, this technology is the most dangerous technology in the history of humanity, I'm in control of it. But also, you can trust me because I I'm worried about all these things. So that might be self-serving. And maybe it's just the very thing that the company needs to buy time through this IPO. While these models are learning how to monetize itself and figuring out how to make money. So I think my theory here is that this could just be the very thing the market needs long term, just allow these companies to get through their IPO, allow these companies to mature into their valuations. And for me, ultimately, the real test has always been whether or not these companies, 2 or 3 years from now are going to be able to turn a profit, whether or not they're going to be able to turn these LLMs into something that is making them money consistently. And that's what the market has been concerned about. And maybe this just pulls their timeline forward another year or two. Yeah. And the one thing this did give us was a little bit more clarity on those IPOs. I mean, OpenAI coming out and saying we are not going to IPO in 2026, that I believe they used the term ill advised if they did that. But we are getting reporting now from Axios, at least one of the outlets reporting that anthropic will IPO this year. So we'll see how that all plays out. But let's talk about your trades today. Some of them benefiting from the sell off. We're seeing this first one Palantir. We're up about 2.25%. Seeing these cyber names move higher today. Palantir sort of in a category of its own in cyber. But how are you looking at Palantir right now? Yeah, they're, you know, kind of frontier model agnostic. But yeah, they're inside the AI ecosystem. Doesn't really matter which one, but they are in all these data centers, they have technology that is really critical to governments and big businesses as to how this data is being put to use. And yeah, if you're thinking about this data being all powerful, Palantir is going to be one of the companies that are going to be able to utilize that power very effectively. So yeah, absolutely. I think it's a must own company for the future, for for the present, for the long term, just watching this AI story mature into its ultimate growth, I think there's just a lot of uncertainty. What is actually going to be the end of the end story for this AI, AI story. But Palantir, it's going to be there. It's going to be implementing whichever model is out there, and it's going to be part of this utilization of this data, which really is the bottom line. How do we use this data? How do we learn with this data? How do we put it into something useful for companies, governments and hospitals and down the line? All right. So as we look at Palantir here, a bit of an interesting chart. It's pretty much flat overall over the past year. But as we look at it, since its earnings in August, we've seen it trading in a new range and trading higher. Yeah. You know the scientist Galileo said measure what is measurable and make measurable that which is not. And that's kind of what Palantir really strikes me as is. They have a unique set of data you can't really get anywhere else. So when we look at our chart here next, we can see that we topped out here recently 187 old highs here. And then we also have had a downward sloping trend line here giving us a falling wedge type shape between our two white lines. So this is typically regarded as more of a bullish type of setup though. So we can see that now we seem to be solidifying here at 166. Our green line that represents an old low and then a subsequent high. This could be an interesting type of setup. So certainly it's not a guarantee. It's going to move upward from this pattern. But what we have then would be looking for a breakout beyond either of these two boundary lines. That's the important part, because then that can trigger the cascade of orders that results in a breakout. So what we have here next with our moving averages is our five day and our 21 day coincide together around 170 or so, 17171. So our two exponential moving averages that we follow that are the shortest term are right on top of each other in prices for now, breaking above them. The day is still quite young. But this is again an interesting setup because if we get too much further, we'll break out from our moving average confluence as well as our trend line here RSI. Our measure of momentum shows that although our our upward sloping green trend line has been broken, we are now fighting our way back above that 50 mid line on the RSI, which suggests more of a bullish trajectory here for our price activity volume profile. Pretty clear nodes here. Pretty obvious areas of interest one here 174 to 187. And then the point of control is contained here in the larger node 128 to about 138. All right. Palantir right now is at 171 50. It is trading higher by 2.5%. On the reaction to this potential AI slowdown. Oracle is your next pick in the big three. They are trading lower. We're down about 4.25% on the news here. Caught up in the sell off. But what I just mentioned about that open AI IPO getting pushed off to at least 2020 7th May come into play here with your thesis around Oracle. So how are you approaching Oracle right now Joe. Yeah absolutely. So what I've been talking about earlier and how this pushback of expectations might ultimately benefit these IPOs. I think Oracle is very closely tied to the valuation of open AI. They have tremendous future obligations coming from open AI. They're spending a lot of money building these data centers. They really need open AI's IPO to be successful. They need them to get out there and using these data centers that they're putting in, but they have tremendous infrastructure already. Their growth has been phenomenal. And that. Yeah. So you think about that. That's why Oracle stock has been under pressure. They're concerned about open AI's path to revenue. They're also were concerned about Larry Ellison selling 50 million shares. So maybe right now we got a little bit longer runway for open AI. And we also learned over the weekend that Larry Ellison is not going to be selling his shares right now. Maybe he will at a higher valuation. Maybe he will over 200. But right here at these evaluations he's not looking at doing so. So yeah I think it sets up nicely. If you're thinking about the long term picture thinking about a stock that's down today, that's one that I'm looking at very closely. All right. So it is down today. It's also down since its earnings despite them coming in with revenue growth of a little north of 30%. I think if my memory serves. So Rick, when you're looking at the technical setup that we have here, when it comes to Oracle and its huge role in terms of funding this AI infrastructure build out, how are you looking at it? Yes. Another news story too, is that they announced another round of layoffs this morning too. So that was more breaking news as well today. So what we have now in this case are Lowe's. One 1450 is where the price bottomed out. Our 52 week lows come in there. We had a upward sloping channel type shape, but that seems to be being broken right now. We have today's price activity opening up below the boundary that we established there. However, we also have not yet broken below the floor of our range, which is around 139. So on one hand, a downside breakout. But on the other hand, we're holding above this supportive area that stands out rather prominently in the short term. 171 is our next high to beat to the upside here. And then also we had a gap here near about 198 that has never quite been filled. So next to think about our moving averages, an even bigger confluence than our last one here. In this case we have our five day, 21 day and 63 day representing one week, one month and one quarter, respectively. They all align with each other between about 149 to 151 or so. So in this case, the the more indicators you have converging at the same point, it's more important. There's different multiple sets of eyes on them, whoever's following these types of indicators here. So this stands out as a short term potential resistance area as well. RSI deteriorating somewhat here we have broken below our green upward sloping trend line here as well as breaking below the 50 mid line at the same time. So a bit more of a bearish development here. Again this is still pretty early in the day. We're just kind of starting our trading week. So it'll be important to see how well things could possibly recover today. We can also see now our volume profile study shows that our point of control is right around where we've had our high for the day so far. Our thick red line here near 147. So the general range here, 139 to 155 is the heavy trading area of importance notice as well big volume spikes during our last couple sessions. So we've seen a lot going on with this name lately to say the least. Certainly. I mean an Oracle right now down about 4% again caught up in this AI sell off trading about 14428. Your last name though is a big beneficiary of the announcement from Dario Amodei. Palo Alto Networks and the cyber names really outperforming today. Palo Alto Networks, one of the top performers, were up about almost 13% right now for Pan W. So how are you looking at Pan W. And is this simply because of how we're looking at the action today, or were they already on your radar before the potential AI slowdown? Yeah, they are on my radar. They're a company we've owned for a long time. And yeah, I mean, it's surprising that it would take this type of news for it to, to get this reaction. I'm surprised it was as low as it was that said, yeah, you're looking at the price action today. Each time I look at it, it's a little bit higher than it was than I last look. And it's just relentless buying. I think that's makes a lot of sense. There is going to be new layers and layers to this security. Every new data center is another buyer of security. Every every new model is a new entry point for security. So it just, it just is critical. And the need for it is expanding. So this has to be a part of the AI. AI play is owning this. Cybersecurity companies. And every company has to be thinking about this very critically. I don't think it should have taken this weekend's news for people to catch up to that, but maybe the market is catching up to it right now as they're thinking about it a little, a little more critically about what what this all means. This recursive learning models that the AI companies are working through. All right. Rick, so as we look at the market potentially catching up here, I mean, as I'm looking year to date, we're up 100% for Palo Alto Networks. But interestingly, if you look at the last month, we're actually down 3%. So as far as what the technicals are telling you, what levels are standing out? Yes. Earnings didn't really do them any favors this time around, despite what seemed like it was a pretty strong environment. We did have a notable drop off that mostly in terms of our closing prices, stayed around 328. Our green line here, another low point here near 308, did not get tested yet, but that stands out as another extreme low for traders to watch out for. We can see as well that we had our earnings gap here near 356. That has been resoundingly broken at this point here. We also had an old gap in a series of highs near 342. That marked the low of today's trading so far. So now we can also see that we had a downward sloping trend line off the highs and upward sloping trend line across the lows, giving us this triangular shape. Price seems to be pushing above that that triangle right now here. So the next potential stop, if that does take hold would be this set of highs around 387. So interesting move to say the least today here as well. So now our our our moving averages here show 21 day and five day. We're on top of each other. We have broken above them now. So look for the faster five day EMA to be closer to our price activity as a possible supportive level. If the move does start to drift downward once more. RSI we have broken above our red downward sloping trend line here and above the 50 mid-line again. So a similar read to what we said earlier here about it being more of a bull type of setup. When these two things happen, especially when they're happening concurrently. One other thing to point out too is our 63 day EMA was fairly supportive here. It seemed like oftentimes price was able to recover above that level here. So just to kind of illustrate how these moving averages can be support during uptrends and resistance during Downtrends here. So here our volume profile shows that we had a node between about 325 to 363. Not really one very consistent large node, kind of two smaller spikes around 330 and 350 or so. But now we're pushing above that anyway into the thinly traded area at the highs. So beware of fast moving prices in situations like these. Yeah. And Palo Alto Networks is now the top performer on the session in the S&P 500 with its almost 13% gain today. Joe, I want to thank you with us