This is Bad.

In case you did not hear, earlier today there was a secret meeting between the US and Iran that lasted 3 hours on opening the straight of Hermoose. That sounds like progress, right? Because it is. Well, now we're hearing that there could be an attack on Pickax Mountain and Israel is prepared to attack Iran solo. Yeah, this changes things a little bit. We will talk about it in today's video. I will share with you your major developments right now and stocks that I like for the reopening of the straight of Hermoose because regardless of what happens I think this means the US getting less involved which could open the straight mind this was surprising news today. Nobody was expecting this. This was like a secret meeting that took place in Qatar and it kind of caught everyone by surprise. Now, I will tell you that yesterday I said the NASDAQ up 3% didn't really make a lot of sense unless there was something that big money already knew. Come to find out, there was this meeting and we're talking about opening Austral potentially and really getting to the end of this conflict. A a lot of this was probably priced in yesterday. Now, if the war with Iran does end, that is going to be a major catalyst from here to push markets higher. Now, Donald Trump said today, "US officials met with an Iranian delegation earlier for three hours." So, this was a three-hour meeting. This is not a a quick kind of thing. They were discussing opening the straight of moose, not just like initial, hey, how you doing? Like, can we get a deal? No, they were obviously talking about a deal. Donald Trump says the Iran meeting was very productive. Another is scheduled in the near future. EU's foreign minister Callis also met with Iranian foreign minister Aragoti and addressed diplomatic prospects for ending the US Iran war. According to US sources, this was a pre-planned US meeting with Aragoti's Iranian team, cutter's prime minister present and discussed resuming talks and opening Hormuse straight, no deal on contentious issues. So it was really focused on opening the straight of Hormuse. Iran said after they, you know, admitted there was this meeting that took place today, Iran says, quote, "US has not set any red lines in the region and Iran is prepared for all possible scenarios." US Envoy Witkoff, which was actually at the meeting today, says, quote, he feels very good right now about the Iran meeting. Iran says their conditions for reopening the straight of Hermoose include immediate lifting of the maritime blockade, immediate payment of all frozen Iranian assets, and an end to the war on all fronts. I I think we're pretty close to that. We're not hearing much about Israel and Hzbala or Hamas or I guess the Houthis is the biggest problem at this point fighting with Saudi Arabia, but Iran can likely get them under control. We know that Iran's frozen assets that was already set to be unfroze. We've heard Donald Trump willing to walk away from the straight of moose and to end the blockade. So, it seems like a lot of these things have already kind of been preapproved, but we'll see what happens. Iran's foreign minister also met with Wickoff on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Iran says their conditions to open the straight of her moose were the reason to accept Wickoff's request for a meeting. And then Trump reiterated yet again that the Iran meeting went very well. So here in the news it says that Israel is preparing for escalation with Iran with Netanyahu urgently convening a security assessment tonight and his departure for the UN now unclear. Per Israel News, a senior Israeli officer says the military is preparing for multiple scenarios, including a full-scale war with US backing or Israel acting entirely alone inside Iran. Senior officials estimate the Iranian front could flare up soon. This comes after Netanyahu cut short his US trip on Saturday as Trump cut short his weekend at Camp David. Trump said at the UN hours ago that his choice is a deal or to annihilate the Islamic Republic. Trump then goes on to say, "We may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain." Trump says, "We are not seeing Pickaxe activity, but we'll attack it if we do." Now, in the trading community, we were talking about this today, and it sounds like this could be, you know, one of those oneandone style of operations, right? you attack Pickaxe Mountain, maybe you don't, but the US most likely is set to walk away from this conflict. The timing of that, when does it happen? That is up for debate at this point. But what does Israel do? How does that affect things? I think it could be one of those scenarios where, you know, the US says, "Look, Israel, you and Iran, figure your out. We're done." Okay. Now, in that scenario, it makes sense why the US and Iran had a three-hour meeting today to open the straight of her moose. And that's really the only thing the markets care about. The only thing the markets care about is is the straight of her moose open or is it not? Is oil flowing or is it not? So again, we don't know what's going to happen here. The news we got earlier was encouraging. I think most of it was priced in in the move that happened yesterday. But again, three-hour meeting with Iran on opening the straight of moose is more than just a handshake. Hey, how you doing? That's more of like, let's figure out what's going to come next. Again, Trump Witoff, the people involved in this discussion today had very positive things to say today. Even then, there were some harsh uh comments, of course, made by Trump at the UN General Assembly today during his speech in which the Iranian delegation got up and left. Well, Iran's armed forces says or said here, Trump's statements on Iran at the UNA are tools for domestic propaganda. So, that's kind of downplaying what what Trump said. But, if this conflict does end, it is going to cause a violent broad-based rally in the markets. Whether you look at the percent of stocks in the S&P trading above their 200 day moving average at 51%, that is down from 77% a month ago. That is a massive decline. Or the percent of stocks in the S&P trading above their 50-day moving average down to 32%. Down from 75% a month ago. That is a 60 plus% decline in a month. You know, investors feel more bearish now than they have in the past year, over a year. So, you know, people are really underweight this market. People are nervous. We are in a Fed hiking cycle at this point. And the only thing the only positive off-ramp to a Fed hiking cycle or to end some of the problems we have in the markets is to open the straight of moose. As I've said before, three things. Open the straight of moose. Number two, the AI trade cracks. Or number three, the economy cracks. That's the only way you're going to cancel a rate hiking, you know, regime. Here you can see the CNN fear and greed index also sitting at 36. Market momentum and fear. Stock price strength. Look at that. Extreme fear, terrible stock price breath, extreme fear, that is terrible. Put and call options neutral. Market volatilities neutral. Safe haven demand in greed and junk bond demand in neutral. Now also if and when the conflict ends or at least the straight of moose opens, you don't have to have the conflict with a you know definitive resolution. You just need the straight of moose to open preferably without tolls and you're going to see the stock market rip higher. Now, we're going to talk about what stocks I like the most, what areas you want to be potentially buying or what areas you want to maybe stay away from here in just a moment. But it is a midterm election and you tend to bottom on September 30th. If we get a conflict resolution to the straight of vermoose and that opens, you might start this rally, right? that tends to last I mean from September September 30th is the average day you bottom during a midterm election year until August or so of next year you could have one of the strongest markets we have seen in a very long time if the straight of moose opens but let's talk about what this means for stocks and for the markets what areas you would want to stay away from and what stocks would outperform so first and foremost rate hikes will be mostly cancelled you're still going to have a a chance of rate hikes. Like you're not going to drop from three to four hikes to zero overnight if the straight of moose opens. You're going to want to get some inflation numbers and all of that, but you're going to remove a big problem and ultimately I think that means the rate hiking cycle is over with. Now, I think that will also begin the midterm rally. It's going to look a little different. I think you're going to get a big broadening rally in the markets as that has been kind of fading in the last month or so. So again, stock price breath, stock price strength looks absolutely terrible right now. Whereas the S&P and the NASDAQ actually look pretty good on a relative relative basis. They are near all-time highs. I would expect the NASDAQ and S&P to go up, but it's going to be a lot less than some of the areas that we're going to talk about, right? So the broadening trade is back and I think it's easier to say what areas you don't want to own if the war with Iran comes to an end. Obviously oil and energy stocks, war stocks like Loheed Martin and you know the war stocks, precious metals potentially if uncertainty goes down if conflicts get resolved. Typically you'd expect that to be negative for things like gold and silver. Although precious metals kind of trade weird nowadays, so question mark there. And then AI stocks, and I know this one's um kind of contrary to what a lot of people would believe, but AI stocks, they might lag behind. I would expect Nvidia to go up. I would expect Micro and AMD to go up, but they're going to go up a lot less than other areas of the markets. Why? Because when there's uncertainty, especially around oil prices and Fed rate hikes, investors want safety. Right now, you're not getting safety in the bond market. Bond prices have been collapsing as oil has been rising, right? Bond prices fall, bond yields go up. So, you haven't had any safety in the bond market. What are investors doing? Well, they're saying, "Hey, worst case scenario, the AI trades alive and uh I could just park my money there." So, the hardware trade is a bit of a flight to safety. Again, I I don't think it's going to collapse or fall big time like oil or war stocks would, but they're not going to go up as much as these other areas. So the areas I do want to own as this war comes to an end or the straight of Hermoose opens which again could happen literally at any moment would be airlines, cruise lines, hotels, some of these areas you know oil and fuel cost are the biggest input cost to these business you know uh categories right so airlines, cruise lines, hotels, those stocks are going to go up like 10% as soon as the straight Moose opens right software software benefits from the hardware rotation. So if hardware if money is going to leave hardware and rotate into other areas software is likely to be a big winner from that. And while in my portfolio you know a lot of the software stocks that I own have done very well recently. Even throughout the last month or so this broadening trade has kind of collapsed a bit. A lot of the software stocks I own have actually done well. But a lot of other software stocks not as much right software tends to be higher beta. It tends to be more riskon than hardware. So if the war ends software likely to be a big outperformer these are Zeta Global and UiPath and Service Now and Cyber stocks right these areas should catch a bid although again this market's a little weird these days. Bonds okay this would be a big one. So again, investors, they have been selling the bonds recently, causing yields to go up. If the war with Iran ends, well, what's going to happen? Bond yields are going to plummet. Bond prices are going to rise big time. That would be a big trade, right? TLT, I actually made a trade on that today. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. We are outperforming all hedge funds or institutions yeartodate in our portfolio even though today was a rough day. Shout out Royal Caribbean for that one. We are up 98.3% year to date, outperforming all hedge funds or institutions. Not a recommendation, obviously not financial advice. You are subject to lose money if you don't understand the companies you are investing in. And investing is generally risky. Okay, disclaimer out the way. Small caps like IWM, high beta stocks, right? Risk on will be back a bit. The economy is strong. The AI trade is mostly strong. If we eliminate the threat of rate hikes and elevated inflation heading into a seasonally bullish time, right before the midterms and then again after the midterms, hence the midterm election rally. This is going to favor high beta stocks. Now again, the stocks that I like the most right now, regardless of whether the war with Iran ends or not, but these stocks would be supercharged if the war with Iran does end Rubric, that's a cyber stock. Zcaler, that's a cyber stock. Zeta Global, SAS and a data moat. Apploving AI advertising, Palanteer, obviously we know SAS, but um big player in applying AI in the um business use case. Vistra, Vistra Energy. I think that's potentially an underrated uh rated play right now. Qualcomm chips, Marll Data, Service Now, SAS, Tesla, Robotic, Zebra Technologies, Automation, UiPath, SAS, and AI agent deployment. I think these are going to be the kind of stocks that outperform um as you know, the Iran war comes to an end. Royal Caribbean. Okay. Delta Airlines, add that to this. Uber, add that to this. Add some restaurants like uh Blooming Brands, right? Consumer going to have more money to spend as oil falls. You can add a NCHL, Norwegian Cruise Line, right? That's going to be another big one. So, that's kind of where I'm where I'm at right now. These are the kind of stocks that I think are worthy of investing capital into. Again, anything can happen here. Things could completely fall apart. Visa formoose may not open for a long time. We are still at risk of a large correction in the markets. If again we don't get positive news or oil goes up again or there's continued fighting with Iran. But again, a three-hour meeting today is more than just a handshake. Hi, how you doing? That's like a hey, are we going to figure this out or not? And clearly, there was some mutual ground that was made. Trump saying great things, right? He's he's saying he's very happy with what he heard and uh they're going to set up another meeting. You are heading in this direction of opening the straight up for Moose. I think the real question is when is that tonight? Is that tomorrow? Is that next week or next month? I think that's the bigger question at this point. Um, and Wall Street's not prepared for that. Wall Street has been preparing for a forever war. They've been preparing for this war to last many months. And it doesn't seem like following the news we got today that that is what we are setting up for. But hey, again, just my thoughts. I wanted to share them with you in this video. give you some ideas of opportunities that uh will be outperforming as this conflict comes to an end. Let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next