Was it all a Trap ??

Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I think today we can kind of do a good, the bad, and the ugly. The good is the rates are already starting to repric. You can see that if you go and compare here just a day ago we were nearly 80% and we have dropped to just below 75%. So as expected so far so good. They're moving in that direction. Also, the good the high yield credit is starting to take a dive below the breakout level. So, that's good as well. That's what we wanted to see. The 10-year yield continues to come down into a weekly cycle low. So, again, also good news in line with the ideas. And we have a cycle filter trend flip to green in the bonds market TLT. Now, we have got a daily breath across here. So, I would think we are going to get some sort of pullback before we can then move higher and move back into this blue box. So long as we can keep this trend filter, which is a cycle trend filter by the way, green, pull down below it, and then pop back above it, then I think everything is honky dory. A lot of people are asking about this. Is this just a 10 SMA that changes color? No, it isn't. If I show you a 10 SMA, wildly different. Okay, so 10 SMA used to confirm the daily lows as per rules of cycle theory. And this is a cycle trend filter. It's a new thing. I asked the team to build me cuz I wanted it. Whilst we are on the charting platform, I thought I'd show you guys this as well. This is pretty cool. This is a cycle screener that tells you what assets are due to bottom for daily cycle lows and when or whether they have already confirmed or failed etc. And it does its 4hour as you can see right here if you want to trade 4hour cycles. So now you get full filter with loads of assets and obviously this will grow over time. Pretty cool. So now and you can say to yourself well we are due any day now and we got a pending unconfirmed 4hour cycle low in MSTR. So maybe I can take a look at the chart and structure a trade around said low. Continuing on with the good. The Russell 2K, the small caps seem to be moving above the cycle trend filter as well. They seem to be pushing higher, definitely leaving behind a cycle low here. So, with a bit of luck, we can get kind of a half cycle low and then a push to right translation, daily cycle low, which is higher, and then go from there. The bad here is the tech sector is selling off quite heavily, okay? As is the S&P. But to be honest, when we look at the markets, there's not that much technical damage. Roughly 1% down or8% I think it was. Even if it's 1% down, still puts us at a higher low for the S&P. We're also nudging towards that window. So, I would think we may just get a little chance here to flesh out a daily cycle low and then go maybe it ends up looking more like this into the cycle low window, but that's fine with me, too. And for the cues, you know, we're not that far away from a daily cycle low. So, we'll see. But so far, hard to make the argument that anything is too wild. Dow Jones as well, still holding its breakout, flipped the cycle trend filter to green, got a new low ahead of us, and quite a while to run before the next daily low. So, I'd say things are looking okay here, but obviously tape saves are going to do tape saves things and interpret this as bad, but it's not yet bad as far as I can tell. More the bad section of this is that semis are starting to look a lot like after they peaked in the com bubble burst, which would suggest any pump here is shortlived to a lower high and a rollover. But again, I'm kind of on the opposite side of the trade. I think this is crowded. I think too many people are looking for this. And you can see it in the likes of the leaders like SECH for example which has printed that same high low but then pushed onto a higher high and a higher low. I think this thing is ready to move to new highs and I think as it does we'll see the likes of stocks SMH SMG higher as well. In either case we should at least get a bounce in the not too distant future. But if we to get the lower high and the rollover left translation in the cycles then obviously that would be bad too. But to be honest I don't think we're going to get it. And then moving into the ugly. Binance just got hacked for over five and a half billion, which is apparently the largest hack in crypto history. A lot of people are tagging me in this and saying, "Is this the narrative to plunge down to a 4year cycle low for Bitcoin?" It might be, but to be honest, Binance has a pretty good track record of getting hacked and then just refunding customer money and moving on. So, I would be kind of surprised if anything serious happens from here. I've already been seeing things like they've recovered and frozen the stable coin money or most of it. So, I don't know if this is going to be enough to drive the price lower into new lows, but we are starting to see more and more of these negative sentiment headlines coming up. The CFO from MSCR just resigned and people are saying sudden departure like that is almost always a huge red flag. Enron, WorldCom, Lehman Brothers comes to mind. I think the thing is people see this and they just assume the CFO has found something and is like, "Ah, I can't fix this. I'm out, right? I'm piecing out." But it might not be that. I don't think it is. But it will be important to see if more and more of these types of headlines and bad news events pile up because if they do, sentiment could get pretty negative pretty quickly. And then the irony is if we did decline to a four-year cycle low, people will just be like, "Yeah, well that wouldn't have happened if you didn't get lucky with a Binance hack or whatever." But it's the same every time, right? The last four cycle was catalyzed with FTX. So there will always be something to explain away the price action. And more on the ugly here. Bitcoin really has to get moving. It's not just me that's been saying this. Bob's saying it now, too. In any solid uptrend, 3-w weekly red candles typically is a short reset and a quick continuation of the trend resumes. But we need to see that pretty much immediately here. We need to see Bitcoin hurry up and turn around and get to new highs to right translate this weekly cycle. Otherwise, this weekly cycle is left translated and thus has plenty of weeks, something like another, I don't know, 11, 12 weeks of decline ahead of it before it gets into that cycle low window. And it would also be perhaps, by the way, I'm counting this slightly different. I'm counting from here, but it would be like one daily cycle, two daily cycles, left trans and failure in daily cycle three, which would set up left trans and failure into the weekly and 4 year low. So, it's like a now or never situation. Normally, when I say that, it pertains to price. Now or never means we can't really go any lower and it could do this for a while, though. And people get annoyed. They're like, well, you said now or never, but if it's just going sideways, it doesn't change anything. But in terms of timing here, it's pretty much now or never because the more days that we spend without new highs here, the more likely it becomes that we did left translate and fail on day six for the daily cycle. And if we did that there, then that means the weekly cycle left translated and that means there's plenty of weeks of decline ahead. So it' be interesting to see what happens here. In either case, just to be really clear, not much changes. Okay, we either get the higher low sometime around here and then reverse or we get lower lows and reverse. In either case, we got a high probability load to manage the risk around and to structure the high probability trades around. It would be pretty hilarious if we can get anywhere back down sort of below 68K because then after all of the craziness that's been going on online and all of the infighting and apology tours and everything else, essentially it would have all been for nothing. People would have just shown their weak character over what? Over a quick couple of green candles that ultimately resolved back lower. But that's how markets work sometimes, right? Sometimes the most entertaining outcome is the most likely to occur. And then before we hop into some charts, the gold setup is pretty clear here. Two paths, okay? Timing base low and go or sweep of the lows, capitulation move, and then go. I think it's the latter. I've been saying this for a while. I think some of the miners have already started to show us this. I think silver's already showing us this, but there's always a chance gold could kind of range here. In either case, note the window. Okay, just a few weeks away now. And then it becomes a very high probability setup again to manage that risk around and to structure your trades around with a clean and clear invalidation on the chart so that if you're wrong, you can be wrong quickly and get out of the way before something worse happens. So, as we kind of already talked about, it seems like we're pretty much ready to reset this cycle and move higher for the stock market. May need a little decline first into the daily cycle low window, but it looks like we're pretty much there. Some of the places like the Dow Jones and the Russell, okay, they're still looking good, aren't they? I mean, the most recent ad here also looking pretty good. So, I said to the level three members when I added this that the plan was pretty simple. Okay, if the cycle fails, I'm cutting the whole lot and then of course we'll take a very small loss here, a little bit more of a loss on this position. The gains from here will be locked in and here. And of course, the bottom which was allocated in here. So, we'll lock in all the gains from there from there to there. Obviously, give a little bit back on these two trades. So, that's if it fails. And if it doesn't fail and it continues to new highs, then I shall sell preemptively into strength and close the entire lot down. That'd be a pretty nice trade. But I mean, at the moment, zooming in here and getting a more short-term look, it's hard for me to say anything other than this seems okay. Yes, some sort of pullbacks along the way. I always expected, but I think it can march higher here. Seems like it wants to. A lot of these higher beta assets are carving out bottoms now, aren't they? Starting to look like they've got some bottom processes in the making here. So, probably the next daily cycle low and the one after that will be very, very good opportunities to add most of these in the longer term accounts. I think a lot of them are going to be at new lows. Like some sort of counter trend bounce here followed by new lows to capitulate into the fourear lows would make a lot of sense to me. Oil still working on its fake breakout. We'll see if we can get that. So no changes there either. No changes to gold right imminently about to print some major turning points which is great. Same for silver which has already swept its lows. So happy days there as well. And then Bitcoin here it does look like we got a left translated and failed daily cycle. Right? That's just what it looks like at the moment. The indicators hunt in the next swing sometime around here. But the cycle trend filter, we're now below that. It's flipping red. The weekly cycle is thinking about crossing bearish down here, isn't it? And is barely clinging on to this. So, it really is that now or never time. You think about it like this. If I hop back to the daily chart, turn everything off to make it super clear. Look, here's the half cycle low. Here's a day 59 daily cycle low that then confirmed with all the confirmation signals, left translated day six, and then since has failed. Okay, this is definitely failing. Now, you could always argue, well, it's just a couple of wicks and it turns up, it's fine. This is multiple candle closes below. So from here, day six left translation failed on a wicking basis day 9 certainly failed on a closing basis day 14. Okay, we have used about a quarter of the cycle already. So unless this is some very alien setup that almost never occurs and we're about to print a daily cycle low here and then print new highs. That's like your last opportunity to be a bull if you're bullish, if you think the bottom's in, if you are cheering on new highs, okay? like it has to basically happen now because if it doesn't and keep in mind if it did that would be weird but not impossible because it's a market but if it doesn't do that by about the end of next week then we're going to be 22 days into a 60-day cycle which means we would have used almost half of it and if we're still doing this then you know what what can we say other than left trans failure and it's seeking another daily cycle low which isn't due for a while right the 60-day cycle low is not due until about mid December and by then was certainly left translated in a weekly cycle. We would have undone a lot of this move. And what is it that Bitcoin loves to do? Throw an inversion, a 30-day half cycle low inversion out of that, which would put us into the kind of mid January time frame. To me, it doesn't seem that crazy if it doesn't do this pretty much right here, right now, that we're going to be down here mid December and then half cycle low inversion. There's your end of your fouryear cycle, your weekly cycle low reset. Everything is ready to move up again. And again, won't it just look exactly like what Gold and Silver just showed us in terms of this move followed by this move? I think it will. So again, I still don't want to be that kind of bearish guy that's just dogmatically sticking with this idea. I still want to assume what I can do here is just shove this over, get another trade on, right? Catch some upside here. But you just got to understand how cycles work. If that hasn't happened by the end of next week, then the probability of it happening is basically nothing. And I still think if it was to come down much lower over the coming couple of months, it just would make a lot of sense from a sentiment standpoint. Markets don't tend to allow people to behave in the way they've behaved of late. The ETH move is accelerating as well, isn't it? I mean, higher beta by definition means it moves more in each direction. So that means it pumps more, which it did, and it could possibly drop more. So a nice opportunity to buy ETH finally. And again, it would be hilarious, wouldn't it? There's so many people like, "Oh, what a terrible call." And then we finally get down here and it's like, ah, okay. Cycles doing cycle things. Yeah. Well, you got lucky cuz Binance got hacked. It's like whatever, bro. But it looks like the probabilities are increasing that that is a more and more probable outcome, right? Once we had that higher high close in here. It looked the complete opposite. It looked like the probabilities were massively skewed in favor of the bullside setup. But very quickly here, we've got failed and left translated daily cycles so far. And this may well be the mother of all head fakes. And you know, we are running out of time to be able to save this. So, super interesting times. As ever, the number one thing I care about is just finding the low, right? I just want to find the low. I don't care if it's slightly higher up. This whole thing could easily end up being like an invest head and shoulders in here. That would be fine with me, too. So, whether it's that or we get that sweep and the fourear cycle failure, okay, it doesn't really make any odds to me. I just want to make sure after all of this craziness that's been going on, we can finally get to a stage where we go, okay, got my allocation, happy with it, got a nice area on the chart to manage my risk around, and now we're ready for a new markup. I've been saying for a long time, if you just are patient enough and you trust the process, then you normally always get a good dip to buy. It's the FOMO, the premature bottom calling, and all of that stuff. It's those people that are just slaves to the tape. It's those people that get jerked around by the market and it's those people that trading will ruin your life, not enhance it. You have to be able to relinquish control and just let the setup do what the setup's going to do. Worst case scenario, let's just say ETH did this. Okay. Well, okay, I missed it. Is that a bad thing? Maybe to some people, but to me, I'll just find something else to trade. But as I was saying back then, and I continue to say now, if you're patient enough, you'll always find a nice spot on the chart to get in at. I've proved this beyond any reasonable doubt with Micro Strategy. We were talking about this whole inverse head and shoulders here as one possible scenario and a sweep of these lows which is much lower as the secondary idea. But in either case, if what comes next is another one of these huge bull rallies. If what's coming next is this big bottom formation followed by this. Does it matter if you get in on the first low, the second low, or the third note? No, of course not. Okay, which something like this anywhere in here is fine. Okay. Is it going to matter whether you bought 114 or 140 or 67? No, not at all. Not where we're going. So, I know that is very alien because most people don't think about markets that way. But the truth is they don't think about markets that way because their vested interest is in tearing others down, being an egoomaniac, stroking it to the idea that they were right on a call when you can just flip a coin and have the same hit rate as anyone on Twitter. The difference between a professional that gets to do this for a living and everyone else is professionals have a process and they rigidly stick to the process with a managed risk on every trade. Standard trade size. So, it's nice. We're getting to see this happen in real time. This is what real world trading looks like. This is what a professional trader does, okay? And we're getting to see that in real time. This is going to prove to be a very sweet spot on the chart to start to get hold of some assets pretty soon. And then in the blink of an eye, we'll probably be significantly higher in a lot of these asset classes. And then the rhetoric will change to, yeah, well, it's easy for you, camel. You got in at the lows or you got in all the way down there, right? That's exactly what happened last cycle up here. We were going push the trade until it's unreasonable to do so. I'm adding more on this breakout. Well, it's easy for you to tolerate the volatility. You got in down here. Yeah, but now we all have that opportunity, don't we? We all have the opportunity to just wait for a confirmed weekly pivot inside of the window and start to build some exposure, progressive exposure, managed risk. Take your time. Don't get FOMO. Don't fall for the idiots online that are constantly telling everyone this guy was right about something or this guy was wrong or whatever. None of that means anything, right? What matters is how you allocate your capital and whether or not you can live to fight another day if you're wrong. But we are very close, aren't we? I mean, if I was an ETH holder here, if I bought the breakout on ETH above this here, right? If you were a range break buyer and then you saw this, you'd be thinking, it doesn't even look like a hard retest anymore, does it? It doesn't look like a type three breakout. Type one breaks out, doesn't look back. Type two breakout, retest, resumption. Type three breakout, hard retest below, and then resumption. It kind of looks too deep for that already. Okay. And then when you combine it with a psycho analysis, left translation, and failure, this is looking heavy. And then you start to reflect on people's behavior and sentiment back here and it all starts to come together as a big puzzle. So it's a market. Anything and everything is on the table all the time. If this thing wants to turbo reverse and be back up here, suddenly we can all flip bullish and have a party. But what if it doesn't? Well then, like I said, bottoms are a process. They often take time. And if you're not in a rush and you stick with the process and manage the risk around the lows, everything will actually turn out all right. Surprisingly good, in fact. Zombie Boy camel and click here to get hold of a charting package and indicator and all the other stuff that comes with it. It's pretty good and you get two week risk-f free trial. You might as well try it. You got nothing to lose. And of course, if you're a level three member, look out for the members only video I'm about to post for you guys tomorrow after the deep dive video. And other than that, I'm wishing you a fantastic weekend. God bless. Bye. >> Finance to see rocks with his contrarian trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. sticking to his guns in this money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the marketies on a bumpy ride.