If You're Still a Palantir Shareholder at a 52 Week Low... Get Ready!

Palantir is near 52-week low. If you own the stock, you're either sitting on losses right now or you're wondering if this is the moment to buy more. If you've been watching from the sidelines, you're probably asking yourself if this is finally the entry point. Well, guys, I'm going to show you both sides that may help answer that question today. We're going to run through the stock analyzer and I'm going to show you exactly what the stock is worth based on my own assumptions and what I would do if I were holding it right now. So, if you've ever owned Palantir, you already know this is not quiet stock. It is an absolute roller coaster. Let me show you just how crazy the ride has been because it's honestly hard to believe. Back in early 2021, Palantir hit about $45 per share. If you've been a long-time follower of our channel, you remember our coverage on it. It was one of, if not the most, hyped up name in the entire market at that time. And it fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, it had crashed all the way down to about $6 per share. That's a drop of almost 87%. And guys, when it was at 45, we were criticizing it. We said it wasn't worth anywhere close to that. And for my personal opinion, I said I would take a look at $5 per share. So, if you bought near the top, you watched almost your entire investment melt away. That is painful for so many investors to tolerate. But, here's where it gets wild. From the bottom of $5.83 per share or so, Palantir went on to one of the greatest runs the stock market has ever seen. It climbed all the way to over $200 a share by late 2025. That is about 35 times your money. Think about it. If you had $10,000 near the bottom, it would have turned into about $350,000. Guys, the people who bought at $5 or $6, they flat-out stole the company. Literally robbed the bank. And now, here we are again in a somewhat similar situation. After hitting that high above $200 per share, Palantir has tumbled back down over 40% in just 6 months. It got as low as $106 per share, the lowest price all year. So, the big question everyone's asking is, is this another one of those moments? Will people look back from here and say, "I stole it at 106." Or, is the party finally over? Could it fall another 40 or 50% from here? And just so you understand how violent this stock can be, in a single day recently, Palantir's total value swung by more than 13 billion dollars in one day, 13 billion. That's the kind of ride we're talking about. It can make you feel rich, and it can give you a heart attack, sometimes in the very same week. So, if you're going to own it, you have to be ready for that stomach-churning roller coaster. Being able to stomach the ups and downs is a massive part of being an investor. So, before we go further, let's answer a question a lot of people are too embarrassed to ask, probably some shareholders out there. What does Palantir actually do? Because plenty of folks are buying the stock with absolutely no idea what they actually own. Here's the simplest way to picture it. Imagine a giant organization, like the US Army or a large company. They have data scattered everywhere, mountains of it in a hundred different places. None of it's talking to each other, none of it's connected. It's a giant mess, and you can't make smart decisions from a mess. It's like your junk drawer at home. Well, Palantir builds a software that scoops up all that scattered data, cleans it, connects it, and turns it into clear answers people can actually act on. That's invaluable in the workforce. They have two main products. One is called Gotham. It's built for governments, like the military and intelligence agencies, use it to make fast, high-stakes decisions. The other is called Foundry, which does the same kind of thing, but for regular businesses. And now, they've wrapped powerful AI around all of it, with a tool called AIP. So, in plain In Palantir is the brain that helps giant organizations make smart decisions out of the messy data. Once you understand that, the rest of the story makes a lot more sense. We think it's so important to break things down simply. There's no need to overcomplicate anything. Professor Aswath from the NY School of Business actually said just that when we interviewed him on this channel. He wants answers to be simple, but not simplistic. So, let's lay out the three biggest reasons the bulls believe this could be a steal from here. And I'll give you the best version of each one. Bull case number one. Palantir finally cracked the business world. For years, the knock on Palantir was that basically only sold to the government and every sale took forever and needed tons of hand-holding. Not anymore. Palantir sales to regular US companies just grew 133% in one single year. And the number of business customers grew 42%. The bulls say that Palantir has finally become a true software company that any business can plug in and use, and that opens up a market many times bigger than just governments. Bull case number two. The government needs this for decades. Palantir sits right in the middle of how modern militaries and intelligent agencies use data and AI to make decisions. Its US government revenue grew 84% last quarter. And the US Army signed an agreement that lets it buy up to $10 billion of Palantir's product over the next 10 years. It's not a guarantee of that full amount, but it shows how deeply the government is leaning on them. And national defense doesn't go out of style. Bull case number three. Once you're in, you can't get out. Palantir isn't simply an app or a dashboard. It weaves itself into a company's data, its rules, its workflows, who's allowed to see what and how big decisions get made. Once it's running the core of your operation, ripping it out would be a nightmare. The proof? Palantir's top three customers have each been with the company for about 13 years. When customers stick around that long, you've got something special and very hard to replace. Before I give you the bear case though, I have to show you something that really caught my eye because some of the loudest doubters are suddenly changing their tune now that the price isn't as absurd. You might know Michael Burry, the famous investor from the movie The Big Short. Well, he'd been betting against Palantir, meaning that he was betting the stock would fall. He just announced he's covered on that bet and he took his profits. And the day that news came out, Palantir jumped about 5%. When a famous investor stops betting against you, people pay attention. With that said though, he might have just been doing it to get his profits and move on saying, "Hey, I got a big enough jump in the meantime." Personally, I believe that's more of the case, but a lot of people out there think it was a positive remark for the company. Okay. And there's more. A US senator who literally sits on the defense subcommittee, the group that helps oversee the military's budget, just bought Palantir stock for the very first time. And that senator was John Boozman, a Republican from Arkansas. And think about why that's interesting. He helps decide how much the government spends on defense and he's putting his own money into a major defense contractor. People watch moves like this very closely. On top of that, a major Wall Street firm, Wedbush, just put a $230 price target on it, over double where it trades today. And just recently, Palantir teamed up with a company called Zeta to power AI-driven marketing, a deal expected to bring in over $100 million. It's one more sign that regular businesses, not just the government, keep lining up to use Palantir's AI. So, the bulls are not alone here. Some serious players are lining up. And guys, this is exactly why being in our community matters. On our main YouTube channel and our plus channel combined, we analyze around 50 stocks every single month. That's a lot, I know, but instead our community at everythingmoney.com, our members have analyzed over 4,500 stocks this year alone. And here's why that matters to you. Whether you're brand new to investing or you've been doing this for years, our community saw the value in a lot of places like Intel before it ever moved. They saw value in Micron before it ever moved. That's what you get when you're in the room with us every single day. And it's not just the community doing the work together. Every single week we release two or three brand new exclusive analysis videos to our community. These are stocks that community members are actively requesting. It's the in-depth stuff you're not going to find on the main channel. And on top of that, you get access to our stock analyzer tool. You put in your own assumptions and it tells you exactly what price you should pay for a stock based on what you are assuming for the company. No guessing, no emotion, just a number. And I'll show you how to use it in just a few minutes when we analyze Palantir. So when I tell you that we're about to break down whether Palantir is a deal or not, just know that it's a small slice of what's happening inside that community right now. It's a small slice of all the tools you can get inside the community. So if you want to see what stocks our members are analyzing before they ever hit the news, the link to join us in the is in the description below. So go check it out. Now, let's get into the bear cases because underneath this incredible company, there are some serious warning signs that almost nobody cheering the stock is talking about. Bear case number one, the stakes are sky high if the AI gets it wrong. Palantir software is used in some of the most sensitive places on Earth, military, intelligence agencies, and hospitals. The company's own filings warn that AI can be biased. It can make mistakes and can even make things up. In those environments, one big error, one bad recommendation, or one security breach could create huge legal trouble and shatter trust. The more important Palantir becomes, the more a single failure could hurt it. Bear case number two, the privacy backlash. The same government work that makes Palantir powerful is also its biggest weak spot. In the UK, officials are reviewing a $330 million health data contract over privacy worries. And France's intelligent agency plans to replace Palantir with a French company partly because they don't want to rely on US-controlled technology. If that fear spreads to other countries, it could really slow Palantir's growth outside of the US. Slowing growth is not something Palantir can afford at the multiples it is traded at. Bear case number three, everyone's coming for them. Connecting AI to a company's data is the hottest job in all of tech right now, which means giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, plus fast movers like Snowflake and Databricks are all chasing the exact same thing. Even big companies' own in-house tech teams are trying to build it themselves. The bears say that all that competition could slowly chip away at what makes it unique, and at those fat profit margins, it makes a lot of sense for people to go after it. Remember, it's a basic law of economics that if a business has high margins and doesn't require a lot of capital to grow, the odds are competitors will try to enter the market. You better hope that the moat around this castle is a mile wide and a story deep. Now, the only way to know that Palantir is truly worth is to stop guessing and run the numbers. So, let's actually do that. So guys, here's Palantir. The first thing is the price, $303 billion. Not the share price, the price of the company. The next thing I'm going to show you is the thing I love the most, the enterprise value. Guys, when your enterprise value is lower than your market cap, it means you have far more cash on hand than debt. It's very, very difficult for a company to go broke when they have more cash on hand than debt. Imagine that in your personal life. Imagine you had enough money in your checking account to pay off every single debt you have, mortgage, car, student loans, credit cards, everything. Would you go broke? It'd be very difficult unless something changed drastically. That's a big check mark for the company. Next thing. Look at this free cash flow growth. A billion a year for the last five, 2.7 billion last year. Net income, same kind of growth, and their cash flow is greater than net income, which is very rare in the world of business, but I like seeing that cuz the most investors out there are focusing on net income. As true investors, we're focusing on cash flow. Next thing. Look at this profit margin. About 17% a year for the last five years, 44% last year. So, it's getting better, and this is a big driver of it. Their gross profit is 84%. Every contract they get, about 84% of it is profit after they pay for all direct costs. That's an incredible number that can really drive up their bottom line profit margin. Guys, look at this revenue growth the last three and five years. 34% a year for the last five years, 38 for the last one year, and the best part is no acquisitions. So, they did it all organically on their own. With high returns on capital. Last year, 15.3% returns on capital. Guys, a lot of great information out there. One thing I will say, this is new. The price to earnings growth ratio for the next three years. It's kind of high, 2.74. You want to be as close to one as possible. It basically means that the earnings growth they're going to have matches the PE ratio. Cuz remember, if you can grow earnings very quickly, you should pay a premium for the company. It should justify a higher PE ratio. But this is your way of looking at it and saying, "Is it too much?" And that's what this ratio is saying right here. All right. Let's go to our eight pillars. Not as sexy as you would have thought, but remember we don't make decisions based on this. 630 * 5-year earnings, 290 * 5-year free cash flow. It's a little exaggerated because of how much the free cash flow and earnings have grown in the last 5 years, so keep that in mind. This one I don't like. 26% increase in shares outstanding. They are diluting their shareholders. Let's go see if that slowed down in the last few quarters though. Because they've had a lot of earnings growth. So and and free cash flow, so maybe they're not doing it as much. We scroll, we go to the income statement. We go to the quarterly results and we scroll to the bottom. We have our basic shares outstanding. Going back several quarters, it still looks like it's increasing. Although last quarter it decreased overall. So is it new trend of this? Maybe so. So back to the eight pillars here to see what we need to finish off. Not enough data on the returns on capital for last 5 years, but it is good last year a 15.3% and of course cash flow's up, revenue's up, and net income is up. Now, if you're new to our channel or you're new to investing, I guarantee this feels overwhelming. Guys, you're not alone. Every successful investor in the world was overwhelmed to start. My goal here and why we created this channel was to simplify all of this into easy ways of thinking. Investing doesn't require some high IQ or some PhD. So what I've done to make it even easier for you is I have an absolutely free key metrics PDF that will tell you all of these key metrics, what they are, how to calculate them. That way you and I can be speaking the same languages. In addition to that, when you're doing your own research, you can look at these key metrics, the the PDF, and as you read them down, you go, "What is that again?" You can read it and understand things better. And also, you'll probably be the smartest of all your friends as you wow them to explain them what return on invested capital really is. So if you want to download that PDF, click the link in the description. It's absolutely free. You will download it immediately. In a couple of minutes, guys, I'm going to show you what price I am willing to pay for the stock. Now, before we get into analyst assessments, I want to remind you don't take our title and thumbnail literally. We're here to play the YouTube game and we're never here to give you a stock tip. We're here to teach you a process so that you can sleep better at night knowing how to value a stock. You can make your own assumptions about its future and you can understand the price you're paying for the stock. So, here are the analyst assessments. Amazing growth. As you can see here, a $1.34 per share growing to 6.37 over the next 4 years. That is some massive, massive growth. And scroll down to the earnings per to the revenue, 7.4 billion growing over 4x to 33.2 billion over the next 4 years. Again, massive, massive growth. So, guys, now we go to our stock analyzer tool. What this is is This is the tool that allows us to take the story and the numbers and put them together. We're here to make reasonable assumptions about the future and it'll tell us what price to pay. Guys, I cannot stress this enough. Your goal isn't to be Debbie Downer and say the company's going to zero and your goal is not to be a hipster where you say the company's going to do nothing but grow 50% a year. It's to sit there and realize that companies go up and down as time goes on and it's hard to assume perfection going forward. That is what we're here to sit there and counter. So, let me do some more what I consider to be reasonable assumptions on Palantir for the next 10 years. So, first off, guys, I did a 10-year analysis. I did 15, 20 and I jumped up to 30% revenue growth to the high side. Next, I did profit margin and free cash flow. I'm actually going to change the last one. I'm going to change I'm I'm going from 30, 40 to 55 on both. Why? Cuz I did 51 and a half percent last quarter last year. So, let's sit there and say maybe they hit 55. But if not, it seems like 40% probably is pretty reasonable based on the five and one-year numbers. Next, 10 years from now, what PE would I assign to this company? Remember, it's going to be a lot bigger, but it's also going to have more stability. So, I sit there and say if the market average is 15 to 16, what should I put on this company? Well, clearly this is a better company than most. So, I put 18, 22, and 26. Now, the key here is don't focus on their current PE. The current PE could be egregious, it could be low. Your goal is to sit there and say I'm starting at the market average of 15 or 16. I'm going to go higher for good companies, lower for bad companies. And then finally, 9% desired return. Remember, if you just want a 9 or 10% return, go buy a low-cost ETF. I do this here to show you the intrinsic value. What is the company worth based on the market return? But I never put in 9% for myself to buy a stock, and you shouldn't either. But what's the right number for you? It depends on other many factors like your personal situation, how much confidence you have in the company, and your knowledge about it. But 9% here just to determine what is the market value. So, I hit the analyze button. I have a low price of 26, high price of 196, middle price of 59. Guys, you can make your own determinations about the future, but if you think my numbers are reasonable, it's not voting well for the company unless they absolutely crush it. And I never like to buy a company based on perfect perfection. Now, as you remember, we brought up Michael Burry ending his short position on Palantir. If you want the full story on literally everything he's been buying lately, and what those moves might be telling us about this market, click right here to watch that extremely popular video that we had on our channel. Thank you for your time.