AMD, Micron, Nvidia - The Week Will Be Absolutely Insane (Here's My Plan)

All right, what's up everybody and welcome back to another Sunday here in the stock market. Well, we are in for an absolutely action-packed week ahead as over the next few days, we are going to see Q2 earning season officially kicking off featuring one of the biggest players in the AI space. We're going to get the biggest inflation print of the month and the brand new Fed chair testifying to Congress for the very first time. All while the AI selloff and the Iran situation are still simmering, keeping the market feeling nervous. And so because this is going to be such a wild week, which feels like a repeating theme here on the channel. I feel like every time I make one of these get ready for the week with me videos on Sunday, we always are talking about how this week's going to be crazy. It's going to be wild. And it just turns out to be. You're either getting a major listing or major news. The market's all over the place. Man, I feel like we can't get a break. But hey, at least we have something to talk about, right? But anyway, okay. Because this is going to be such a wild week ahead. Again, I wanted to make a video for you all today just breaking it all down for you. We're going to go dayto day today talking about each one of these major events, catalysts, and what sort of impact I believe they're going to have on the stock market and exactly what I'm going to be doing in my own public portfolio as a result of all of these events. Okay, so we have a good bit to get into today and I don't want to keep you too long on a Sunday, folks. So, let's go ahead and let's jump into Monday. So, Monday is actually one of the more relaxed days of the week because we actually don't have any major events on Monday. But that doesn't mean that it should be thrown away or not paid attention to because since this is going to be such a wild week ahead, since we do have things on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and a little bit on Friday, I believe that we are going to see the market really start positioning itself for the week ahead. We're going to see on Monday if the market's feeling nervous, if it's feeling confident, can we see SPY continue this climb upwards? Can we see some of these other individual stocks like a Micron, AMD, SoFi, Robin Hood? we see them take good position leading into the week or are they going to lead into the week with a weakness? I think that's very much going to set the tone for the week. So, it's worth paying attention to. But we will come back to the chart side of things at the end of the video. Okay. We'll talk about the charts a bit more towards the end, but Monday is going to be dedicated towards the charts. Okay. Now, Tuesday is where things start to go crazy almost immediately because on Tuesday, not only do we have Kevin Worst, the new Fed chair facing Congress, but we are also going to be getting CPI data at the same exact time. So, both of these are going to hit the market at one time. And I believe it's going to be very impactful. Remember, anything that the Fed does right now, anything that inflation does right now is going to have a direct impact on what happens with interest rates. And interest rates are having a immediate an immediate impact on not only just the stock market but the crypto market, the precious metals market. Every market is getting hit depending on what happens with interest rates. And so this is going to be a big day. It's a bit of a double doozy. Okay, we got a double stuffed Oreo on Tuesday. So the first thing of course is that we're going to get again Kevin Walsh giving his testimony to Congress for the very first time this week. And the reason why this so specifically is important isn't just because it's his first time, right? You can always kind of expect these Fed chairs to say and do the same things. But the reason why it's so important is because we are currently seeing what Kevin Worse is describing as a family fight over at the Fed. You see, many people on both sides of the Fed are kind of debating. Some think, "Hey, we should probably tighten up on these interest rates right now because the economy is like not close to running out of control." Then the other side saying, "We don't need to tighten right now. There's a situation with Iran. Let's wait it out. See how it goes." Then there's that one random dude in the corner like, "You ever got you guys ever thought about cutting rates?" They're like, "Shut up." Um, but anyway, yeah, there's a bit of a family fight going on right now. And because of this, we've not really gotten much from Kevin Wars. He's not given us a lot of clarity on where we're going with this, how the market should prepare, what they should expect, right? And so, what I'm thinking is that Congress in in this testimony is almost in some way going to ask him questions that maybe make him answer. They can't make him answer, but they're going to try. And hopefully this does give us maybe a bit more clarity on what we can expect from the Fed because look, there are people in the market that are pricing in a possible rate hike as soon as September. All right? And so every word of his tone is going to get dissected to feel like if this is true, if this is reasonable or not and that is going to have a direct impact on the market. Now, at the same time that we see of course him facing Congress again, we are going to see CPI data come out. Now, if you don't know what CPI data is, it is the consumer price index, which is basically a representation of how much prices are going up and down in the country, or in other words, it's inflation data. On Tuesday at 8:30, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard, we are going to see CPI data get released. And remember, this is the direct sort of impact on the economy, just similarly to what um the whole Kevin War situation is. If inflation comes in really bad, it raises the likelihood that the Fed is going to have to raise interest rates. The market doesn't like that because when the Fed raises interest rates, it pulls the liquidity and capital out of the economy that typically f fuels things like the stock market, right? And so naturally, the market is going to be staring super harshly at what happens with June CPI data because obviously again it is going to direct us a bit more on what we can expect from the Fed. So it all comes down to the fact that the Fed's not giving us much. So we just have to figure everything out ourselves. It's like trying to file taxes with the IRS. It's just like, oh, you just need to figure it out and you better figure it out cuz it's going to cost you a bunch of money if you don't. It's a lot. Now, one thing that I will say, okay, one thing that I think is worth noting is that this piece of CPI data is a little unreliable. And the reason why I say that is because this CPI data is going to reflect the data that was given that we had at least prior to the re-escalation over in Iran. All right? So, this data was pulled before that. It's backwards looking. And so, I think it's going to be a bit skewed. So, I'm not sure the market's going to respond super harshly to it, but I definitely think it will be impactful, but that is worth noting. And then on uh Wednesday, we have PPI data, which is like inflation, but for producers, okay, so you can see both sides of the coin. But it is still worth paying attention to what happens on Tuesday because this is more of a fundamental economic perspective that we're going to gather on the market. That is definitely going to be factored in when it comes to prices, especially for some of your broader indices and things of that nature. Okay? So, we'll keep an eye on that. But that's what you got coming on Tuesday. Now, from Tuesday to Thursday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, we are going to see earnings season kickoff. Now, some of these earnings actually land on Tuesday. But the big ones, the real ones that you need to be paying attention to land on Thursday, which I'll talk about in a second. So, let's talk about some of the different earnings that we're going to see on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. We'll kind of just breeze through them a little bit because I really want to talk to you about what's coming on Thursday, especially if you're an AI investor. So on Tuesday, we're actually going to see earnings from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Cityroup, and Goldman Sachs. So all of the banks, okay? And it's always important to know what's happening with the banks, right? Remember the banks are the backbone of this country. Whenever you're in a capitalist society, the banks are the ones who have a lot of the control. And so if they're doing good, economy is doing decent. If they're doing bad, it is really, really bad. And that's why the market always pays close attention to what the banks are doing. And then fast forward into Wednesday, you're also going to see Morgan Stanley coming out, Black Rockck, Johnson and Johnson, and United Health and more. So you're going to get some of these more fundamentalbased companies that are built more into the blue chip side of this country equally as important. So none of these individually in my opinion are going to make the market pump or dump, right? You're not going to see the market crash or or rally as a result of any of these. I don't believe. I think it'll be an accumulation of them. If you see these things coming out performing well, revenues fine, all of these sorts of things, I think that's actually pretty solid. And I think there is a very very real world that we do come in with, you know, where the market is expecting it. As you can see here, Q2 is expected to show a second straight quarter of 20 plus% of earnings growth. So there is a bit of a high bar, but I think it's very reasonable that that happens, and it will show that although there's a lot happening in the world right now, the backbone of this country, at least in the United States, is still strong. Now, taking us into Thursday, this is the big one. All right. I don't think people are talking enough about how big this is because on Thursday in the pre-market, we are getting earnings from TSMC. Now, if you don't know who TSMC is, TSMC is the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company. This is currently the sixth biggest company in the entire world, currently sitting with a $2.25 $25 trillion market cap and one of the backbones if not the core support pillars of the entire AI space because they manufacture these chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and Meta's new Irish chip. I mean when it comes to actual manufacturing of these chips that are fueling the entire wave, TSMC sits at the very very heart of it. And I'm telling you, if there was ever a company outside of like an Nvidia that could cause this whole AI train to unwind fast, it's TSMC. Because you got to think about it, right? TSMC is the company who all of these other companies like Nvidia send their designs to, send their prints to to actually have them manufactured. Well, if TSMC isn't manufacturing much, if there's not a huge demand for their services, guess what? That shows tangibly, objectively, that the AI trade is slowing down. that these AI companies are slowing down. That the actual production of the hardware needed to fuel this whole thing is slowing down. This is not subjective of reasoning. This is not deductive reasoning. This is not opinion. This is objective tangible fact. If they if we see them slowing down, it means the whole AI movement is slowing down. And that's why this is so dang on important. Now, when it comes to revenue, and don't you worry, you know me. I'm going to make a video about this as we get closer to it, breaking everything down. But in general, when it comes to revenue, the um expected revenue is around $40 billion, which should be roughly a 33% increase yearover-year. All right, so that's the number that we're looking for. There will be some other things that we're going to dive into, of course, especially when it comes to their service by service sector, how it breaks down across Nvidia, Apple, AMD, etc. We're going to dive into that closer to Thursday, probably Wednesday night. Okay? But in general, all right, this is what you need to be paying attention to. Looking for 40 billion plus. Now, in addition to their earnings, remember they're going to be giving their guidance as well. And this is probably going to be even more important than their actual earnings, whether it comes at 40 billion because guess what? Everyone's been sitting here wondering recently like, hm, is the AI trade slowing down? Are we coming to an end of this? Did it peak? Are we pulling back? These are questions that a lot of people have. And in my opinion, TSMC can answer a lot of those questions in their forward guidance. Because if TSMC is expecting things to continue to ramp up through the year, that could be the catalyst alone that the AI trade needs in order to pick back up momentum. If TSMC believes that they are going to continue to generate more revenue, their services will continue to be needed. They will continue to of course manufacture fabricate etc. they're going to be in a very good spot and it's going to be a signal to the AI market like, hey, things are fine. Stop freaking out. But if TSMC comes out and like, yeah, we're not sure. You know, I think we think things will be okay. And obviously they'll word it in a much more robotic way, but we think things will be okay for the next year. People will take that as, "Yep, we knew it. Everything's slowing down. Nvidia, Apple, Apple, AMD, everything, everything's slowing down. Semism are slowing down. Production is slowing down. Fabrication slowing down. We're not going to need a memory is going to be less needed." So that's bad for Micron. And it's going to start this domino effect that's just going to cause absolute havoc in the market. Okay? And that's not only going to impact AI, that's going to impact everyone. All right? And so I'm telling you the day this week is Thursday morning and so I'm going to be making a bunch of content around that. Okay, so that is going to be very very important to pay attention to. Now outside of that, there are a couple other things that are worth noting when it comes to the AI trade, but the reason I wanted to start with TSMC is because that's the big one. But let's talk about some of the other smaller things that are going to impact, of course, the AI trade and then naturally the market as a whole. So on Wednesday, we're actually going to see ASML's earnings as well. Now this is going to be of course important. Remember they basically have a full EUV monopoly which is the machinery that is needed to of course create some of these chips but these are of course the exact machines that SKHEX just raised billions to buy. So this is going to be another key gauge for the whole chip complex as well. Not as big as TSMC but still dang pretty dang on important. Now, speaking of SKH Heinix, another thing that's going to happen this week is that we are going to see its first full week of trading now that it's available in the United States. You know, if we go kind of see how things went on Friday, they honestly weren't all that bad. If we go to say the 10-minute chart, what you can see is that although we did see a big bit of a pump and then a dump, SKH High did do a really good job at recovering from bottom to top. We actually saw it rally from 167 up about roughly 3.4% back up towards 173 before pulling back towards 172. Now remember, this thing had its ADR at $149. So it is still sitting well above well above the ADR price. So a lot of people just made a lot of money when it comes to SKH Heinix. I mean, this bad boy from ADR price now is 15.5% over the course of a day. That's pretty solid, right? And the fact that it's still sitting up there, I think is pretty good. Now, we need to be careful though, right? We need to be very careful because this week definitely could be in corrective territory. you could see SKH highness coming back closer towards that ADR price before stabilizing somewhere or it just absolutely take off which would be absolutely fantastic. And so I don't know what's going to happen. I am going to be covering it in live streams and videos throughout the week. So stay tuned. But it will be interesting to see what sort of um movement we see from SKHENX this week because again this is its first week trading in the US and that obviously is impactful for the AI trade as well. So when it comes to the AI trade, there's a bunch of stuff. You got ASML, you got SKH Highix, but the big one is TSMC. And I cannot emphasize enough. I just want to start banging on my desk. I cannot emphasize enough how important TSMC's earnings are going to be. Okay. But we'll be here updating you every step of the way. All right. Now, with that in mind, those are the majority of the big ones. Okay? You got the bank earnings, you got the fundamental blue chip earnings, you have CPI and Kevin Worsh's testimony, all while leading up to, of course, TSMC's earnings as well. Now, in terms of some of the other smaller things, there are actually some other things to pay attention to. For example, you know, you got Netflix earnings coming up. You got China GDP coming up. You got retail retail sales data coming out. And you have um July consumer sentiment coming out of Michigan as well. But none of these are super important. I think the real impactful things are going to be, of course, what we discussed today, DSMC, bank earnings, CPI, Kevin Worsh's testimony. Add all of those things together and you're in for a week that is action-packed. Okay, now with that said, okay, with all of the fundamentals out the way, let's actually take a quick look at what is happening on the charts that we need to be paying attention to going into tomorrow ahead of this week because remember I told you on Monday we're going to see the market position itself for this wild week of catalyst. Okay, so let's talk about what's actually happening right now because I think it's a very clear picture. So when it comes to what we are currently seeing from the stock market, you can see that it's actually trying its hardest to gain momentum right now. If we look at SPY for example, SPY was trending downwards. SPY hasn't really performed that great. At one point we saw Spy from, let's see, roughly from June 3rd all the way down to June 26, down 6% over the span of just 20 days or so. But what's interesting is that throughout the month of July, we have seen SPY trying to make some recovery. It's trying to regain some strength and it's actually done such a good job that SPY has broken back above the golden zone. Now, if you don't know what the golden zone is, don't you worry. I have a video here on the channel about the golden zone, so feel free to go watch it afterwards. But the golden zone in general is a massive zone of resistance. This is a seller zone. This is a zone that is very hard to get above. And as you can see, we got stuck in it for a while. But look what SPY did on Friday. SPY broke above, and this is the S&P 500, by the way, broke above this golden zone. And so if going into this week we can see SPY maintaining above the golden zone, guys, I think it's more than reasonable to assume that SPY is going to first and foremost try to return back up towards that high at 760. If it breaks 760, you're opening up the door to 770 or even 785. Meaning that we could see in general some sort of move from SPY upwards of 1 to 4.3% this week alone. And I know some of you are going to say, Tyler, we're not getting a 4% move in one week. It's possible. We've seen it happen before. You've had moments in previous times where you've seen these sorts of 2, three, 4% moves happening over the course of 7 to 10 days. And so I think it's more than reasonable to assume that you could get some sort of rally up to at least 771 this week if SPY is capable of maintaining above the golden zone. And so while we have all of these events happening on the actual, you know, in the news and economically, etc. I think it's going to be equally as important that you're on the chart. You're looking at this golden zone that tops out at 751 and you're watching to see if SPY is capable of sustaining above it. Because if it can stay above it, I think there's a real world, I'm telling you, in which SPY starts making this move. And that could entail some sort of 5, 10, 15% moves towards the top side for some of your favorite stocks. You know, that could mean Robin Hood maybe making a beautiful move above its own golden zone. That could be SoFi finally breaking above its own red zone. That could mean AMD finally breaking above this range that it's been in or Micron making a recovery back to 1100. All of those things are possible if this week of catalyst goes well and SPY sustains on top of that golden zone. So, I'll keep you updated as it all does play out. Of course, you guys know that I do make content here on the channel every single day. Whether it's the live streams that we're doing two or three times a week or the videos that I'm posting every single day again, I'm going to be here for you every step of the way, letting you know what's going on and letting you know what I'm doing. Now, speaking of what I'm doing, um, in a week like this, of course, where we do have so many different catalysts and so many events, you all know my game plan, folks. I'm letting the week come to me. What I'm not going to do on Sunday is try to make a plan for a week that I don't know how it's going to go. I don't know what Kevin Worsh is going to say. I don't particularly know what June um CPI is going to say. I don't know how TSMC's earnings are going to go. I don't know how all of these things are going to go. So, what I'm not going to do is say, "Yep, I'm buying this week." I don't know if I'm buying this week. I might, I might not. My general plan is this. during this week as these catalysts come out, right? I'm going to sit back and say, "All right, what does this catalyst mean for the market? How's the market responding? Is an opportunity being created?" This is my general framework. Okay, so let's say for example, Kevin Wars comes out and he sounds a little bit hawkish. Sounds a little bit hawkish at the congressional testimony. I'll say, "Okay, what is this? What is this event? What is happening? All right, Kevin Wars is feeling hawkish. How do I believe this will fundamentally impact the the stock market? I think it's a short-term thing. I think he's feeling hawkish because the economy is not particularly in a great spot when it comes to inflation and there is potentially room to raise interest rates if need be until this whole situation dies off in the Middle East and inflation data comes back down. So, I don't think this is a long-term worry. I think this is a bit of a short-term worry, but the market is responding super negatively. We have spy down. We have individual stocks down. Is there an opportunity be being created? Yes, of course. there is a short-term catalyst causing a pullback right now that gives me the opportunity to make a long-term dollar cost average or purchase. So then bang, I go in and I make a a purchase there, right? That's when I'll go in and that's when I'll add to my VO position or one of my individual positions, right? That's when I'll make a move. I'm not going to say in advance what I'm going to do because again, I need the context of the market. I don't like making blind trades. I don't like making like making blind buys. I I you know, I wasn't buying Robin Hood blindly just, you know, just I'm just going to buy Robin Hood. No, I was looking at Robin Hood. But I saw its price coming down towards these lower levels and I said, "You know what? I believe that what we're seeing from Robin Hood is a short-term turmoil. I think it's creating long-term opportunity. I'm going to go in. I'm going to buy it." And that's why I'm up now $1,600 on Robin Hood the last few months or something like the S&P 500. I've leveraged all of these pullbacks that we've seen, especially over the last year. All these pullbacks that I think were unjustified, I've leveraged them for purchases. And that's why I'm now up $72,000 on this position. It's because I don't try to guess what's going to happen. No, I let the market come to me. I let the week come to me. I determine my perspective on certain catalysts and whether or not I think they're creating opportunities to then determine if I'm going to buy, if I'm going to sell, or if I'm going to hold. So, in general, if you want the easiest way is that this week, I'm going to look at each catalyst, see how the market responds, and if I find an opportunity to buy, I will. The good thing is you'll be one of the first ones to know because when I make purchases, I like to tell you here and let you know how things are going. All right. So, I'm not quite sure what I'm going to do yet this week, but I do intend on buying if any of these catalysts do cause pullbacks. But, of course, I will update you when that time does come. Um, one thing I almost forgot to mention is that outside of what's happening in the market, another thing happening this week is that on the 15th, I am going to be doing an exclusive seminar. This is going to be an exclusive educational seminar where for 45 minutes to an hour I am teaching all of you members of TH Capital. One of the aspects of my game that have allowed me to build some of these different positions that you've seen me build over the last few months. Okay? And so if you're not in TH Capital, make sure that you head to the link. Feel free to go check it out. Sign up down below. Not only are you going to get access to, you know, over 12 hours worth of course content, a bunch of live events, you're going to be able to join this bad boy, this exclusive seminar on the 15th. And I will be announcing the time and topic on Monday. So stay tuned for that. All right. Um, so yeah, that is the week ahead, folks. And we're looking at about a 23 minute long video here. So I don't want to go too much deeper into it. I think you get the overview, right? CPI, Kevin Walsh, bank earnings, TSMC earnings, all at the same time that we're seeing spy trying to break that golden zone. You combine these things together, it creates another week of chaos. And chaos creates opportunity. Chaos creates content material. So you guys know I'm going to be here. I'm be here every day, folks. I'm be here every day. We're going to be going through it all. So, I hope you guys did enjoy today's video and I can't wait to see you all in this week.