Is Bitcoin Going To 0? (What They Won't Tell You)

How do I invest in crypto? >> Bitcoin has fallen by 70 plus% on multiple occasions. >> If we let's go back to the S&P 500. A lot of people invest in the SPY the S&P 500 and still lose money. >> Why? Because when the we go through any downturn, people panic and they sell. >> And and if we look at I mean Bitcoin's I think Bitcoin's 2009 if when it started if I'm not mistaken. Um if we look at the crashes from you know recent history 2020 stocks fell by 30%, Bitcoin fell by 50%. 2022 stocks fell by 20 the S&P fell by about 20%. Bitcoin fell by 60%. So in those times people who are in the S&P are freaking out selling. >> Yeah. But here's the thing. This is the riskreward that people don't understand. If you've got a time horizon, let's say the average draw down in the S&P during a a bare market is 25%. >> A draw down being a a drop >> a lot. Yeah. A drop a drop in prices. You're getting compensated 15% a year returns for that at best. >> In Bitcoin, the average draw down over the same period will be about 70%. But you're getting 150% return. If you're on the winning side though, >> if I buy it and I can sell it for a higher price, >> hold it. Just hold it. >> That's the key. >> So, all of these are in a nice trend channel. They go up. So, anybody can buy something and hold it long enough it'll go up. >> Well, what about Let's look at housing. We could say the same thing about housing. 2008, housing crashed. Just hold it. I have too much debt. I'm underwater. My bank's taking it from me. People are buying Bitcoin with debt. >> Yeah. I mean, that would not recommend that. But housing's different because you can endlessly create more housing. And we have a demographic problem in housing that makes it more complicated. Demographic problem is A, everyone's leaving the cities now. B, the generational gap. Nobody can afford the boomer houses. We don't have enough cheap housing for young people. People are relocating, moving around. So, we got a very interesting mismatch in real estate now that makes it more complicated than it used to be. >> Absolutely. And and and I do want to say I I think the part that we fundamentally differ is not that there's value in crypto. I own crypto, >> but the difference between you and I is you are all in crypto. For me, it's a speculative piece of my portfolio. So, I invest in my own business. I have real estate, stocks, my speculative assets, and then a little bit of gold. Imagine how difficult to replicate what you've achieved in your amazing career is for the average person listening to this versus buying one thing in your Coinbase account, your Robin Hood account, and doing nothing. >> It's so there's no cost. It's not like buying a house. It's like servicing all the stuff. There's no debt involved. There's nothing >> in theory, but theory isn't reality. How many people end up losing money when things go down? How many people panic, especially with Bitcoin? Because if we look at especially the early adopters of Bitcoin, who are those people? These are the people that well a lot a lot of the average person I want to get rich. I want to get rich quick. It's I want to make money fast versus the average person who's buying the S&P 500. This is somebody who is I want to invest and build wealth for the long term. It's a very different mindset. >> If the average investor of this is 32 years old and we said no, you need to invest for the long run. They're never going to have a house. So they their whole vision of their future selves is utterly destroyed. >> So it becomes a logical thing to actually take more risk. It's logical for them because they've got nothing to lose. >> So Bitcoin you're saying is 145% a year. >> Yeah. And in recent years as the trend rate of adoption grows, it's probably down to about 100% a year. Let's call it that for easy maths. >> But now let's think about this just from a practical long-term perspective. Warren Buffett is arguably the best investor in the history of time. He has averaged about 19% a year over the course of his decades, making him a multi multi multi-billionaire. And so when we compare a 20% return from one of the top investors in the world versus, hey, Bitcoin is going to give you 100% a year, there's there's some sense of something wrong. >> Nothing. So, even if I'm wrong by 50%. You still outperform Buffett. To put it in perspective, Bitcoin since 20 2010 has done I think it's about 90 million% returns. There's no asset in all human history that's ever generated as much wealth in the shortest period of time. And because it's not a random thing, it's actually a technology and it's a network model of technology. as more people use the network and we see with Bitcoin, governments buying it and asset management firms buying and everybody else you have this network adoption model and so what it creates is the same chart as Google or Amazon all of these it just goes up in a log trend over time with some volatility. So you've got a secular bull market which means that over time prices go up for measurable understandable reasons and it happens to be the highest performing asset of all time. There's one problem >> and it's volatile. The psychological thing you're dead right about. It's re very hard when it falls 70%. I've gone through three of those. They're hard. >> The problem is just like with real estate, everyone has said real estate only goes up. Well, how do you make money on the real estate? You make money when you sell or you lose money if you sell. Ultimately, this comes down to that. You make or lose money only if you sell. Well, what about everything along the way? And what if I need to sell during that 70% crash? Because what happens during those crashes? A lot of times people lose jobs. A lot of times people lose their income. A lot of times people need that money during that time. And so now I'm desperate or I'm panicking. There's there's two things happening and now maybe it's the end and I go in and now I lose money thinking that I'm going to make all this money. >> I think I can appreciate your love for cryptocurrency and your 100% concentration in cryptocurrency. >> You're saying you're suitable for everybody, right? I've got my the, you know, bottom of Maslo hierarch needs taken care of. I've got houses. I don't have debt. You know, it's easy for me. I've got multiple sources of income that I can take that back. I'm not saying that for everybody, but I can also understand why a 25-year-old can do that, too, because they got nothing to lose. >> But do you think that if a 25year-old puts their entire salary and savings into Bitcoin and they lose it, let's say they run through a 70% draw down, are they just putting themselves in a bigger hole for their future as well? like maybe before there was a a glimmer of a chance that they could that they buy a house and then now they can't. >> The most important um part of financial markets is the least understood is time. >> Mhm. >> It's not just price, it's time. So if you're 25 years old and you get wiped out, >> we've all done it. We've all kind of screwed up and you know had to move home to our parents or do whatever. We've all done it. You can do that several times when you're young and it's okay. You just don't want to do it >> at age 50. you really really don't. You become more risk averse generally speaking. >> Okay? >> It just depends where you are and how much time you've got to take that risk. >> But now if I'm investing my money in Bitcoin or really anything, a lot of the value is what some people refer to as like equity. It's it's I bought it for like I started buying Bitcoin when it was $3,000. That other stuff is equity. It's invisible money, which in my view is is theory. It's not actual money in my bank account. It's sitting there waiting for me to sell, hoping that when I go to sell, it's going to be a profit versus cash flow. >> If I buy a dividend paying stock, >> what's a dividend paying stock? >> Some companies have big profits. For example, McDonald's has billions of dollars of profits. There's three things that they can do with their cash. They can save that money for an emergency. They can take some of that money and reinvest it and open more stores and create better burgers. Or the third thing that they can do, which some companies do, not all, is they can just give this money away to their investors, the shareholders. It's called a dividend. So, it's a cash payment for doing nothing except owning that investment. So, if I buy something, whether it's ETF, stock, or whatever, that's paying a dividend or a rental property that's putting money in my bank account every single month or year, that's money I can use to buy food, go on a vacation, do something. Here's here's what Let me tell you. >> You're getting paid 4%. >> Listen, who cares? I started buying Bitcoin at $3,000 a coin when it was at I went through multiple crashes. I remember when $20,000 of Bitcoin was the oh my god, we did it. And once it hit around 70,000, I looked at this and I said, "Wow, I have my real estate, my stocks, my speculative, which is crypto and startups, and then 2% gold, which is now looking extremely inflated. I need to lower this that way I can have some more income." So, what did I do? I sold some Bitcoin. I bought rental properties. That now rental property is putting money in my bank account every single month. The Bitcoin, it's a big number on paper, but it doesn't actually mean anything unless I do something with it. >> Could you have staked it? Which means you can stake the cryptocurrency and make a monthly yield from it. >> Get a loan against it. >> Now, that's adding risk. Well, what happened into if I take a 80% loan, 70% loan, let's let's 50% loan. >> Yeah, it's it's very volatile. So, >> so let's take let's take a 50% loan and Bitcoin falls by 70% which it has. Now I'm underwater. Now what? Now the bank comes knocking on the door. Margin call. You're forced to sell and it's a foreclosure. >> My point being on my Bitcoin. >> I mean, I don't disagree and really speaking, people should have the ability to have cash flow or cash for if things go wrong, right? That's really a super important thing to be able to have a long-term view to be comfortable with draw downs to be able to invest in startups or to to invest in crypto or technology and all of this stuff. Um, that makes sense, but I just don't think a dividend of 4% makes any difference to anybody. >> Well, it does if you do it consistently month after month, year after year. >> You need huge capital to start with to be worthwhile. >> No. If if you if you start investing for dividend income, I call it a decade of sacrifice. And this is why it's so hard. >> Yeah. But if you're 33 years old now, you're sacrificing till you're 43. >> You're going to become 43 at some point. And imagine if you're 43 and now you have the income to pay for that car, to pay for the house, you don't have to worry about it. Well, do you want to have hope that you have the Bitcoin or would you rather have more security? I'm again Bitcoin in my perspective high risk high potential return and I'm not saying don't buy it. I'm saying allocate it in your portfolio in a way where you understand you are arguably one of the top crypto experts in the world. >> I'm not I also am not the stock expert in the world. I'm also not the real estate expert in the world. What I doing is I'm probably going to be wrong. If my stocks crash, I have my real estate. If real estate crashes, I got my stocks. Crypto crashes, well, that's part of my speculative portfolio. I really don't care. And if everything crashes, I got some gold. So, for me, I have to diversify against myself because I know stocks crash. I know crypto crashes. I know real estate crashes. >> But if you're not starting with a lot of money, your your strategy is the strategy of a rich person. Oh, I've got houses and I've got dividends and I've got some gold and I've got a bit of this. That's the strategy of being >> But I didn't start with all of those. I didn't start with all those at all. I started with one. >> Where did you make most of your money? Being an entrepreneur. What would youreneur taking obscene risk? >> I did. That was me. >> Entrepreneur is taking obscene risk. >> But if I'm making $50,000 a year, the first step, let's assume now I'm putting $5,000 aside, $7,000 aside a year. I can take high risk high potential return or I can be conservative or a hybrid and not everybody should be taking all the risk because there's Bitcoin has risks and again I'm telling you somebody who owns it the government could come in and change policies on Bitcoin. Quantum could change Bitcoin. people could stop caring about Bitcoin. And if any of those things happen and all my money is in this very speculative asset, I'm the one that's carrying all the risk. >> So if you if someone was $1,000 in disposable income to invest, what would what would you suggest they did, Humphrey? >> My take on $1,000 is as has changed over the years. I used to say you could invest $1,000, but as as rule probably mentioned, 10% on $1,000 is is not that much, right? So, like, you know, if you invest $1,000 bucks in the S&P 500, you get 10%. Next year, you'll have $1,100. That $100 is not going to change your life dramatically. So, if I had $1,000, I'm investing in myself. So, trying to improve my skills to make more money at some point. >> How exactly would you do that? >> When I was uh still coming up, I was trying to take a lot of courses online. So, I try to figure out different types of skills that I could that I could use in the marketplace. So, I took a AdWords course back in the day for like 150 bucks that taught me how to do Google Adwords and I would try to consult for for businesses out there to try to make more of an hourly income on the side. >> And Google Adwords, for anyone that doesn't know, is Google's advertising platform. >> Yeah. And now there's Tik Tok ads and Facebook ads, but you know, anywhere where I could be more of value to another business, I knew that economically speaking that I could command more in the marketplace. >> So, something with that like that would be great. So, so right now clearly that is AI because what what you saw there is like a knowledge arbitrage with a new technology where most people didn't didn't understand AdWords and you could be the young guy bridging the gap for people's ignorance. So most businesses now would be dramatically more efficient and effective if they understood even the basics of AI. >> Yeah. >> So a kid could take a a course in AI and do you know what's crazy? If you read the top 10 books on AI, you'd be in the top 1% in the world in terms of knowledge. >> Yeah. I mean if you just read the instruction manual of how chat GBT or you know quad works you you could probably be in the top you know 1% of prompt engineers right and that could be a that could be a value to a business or service right so >> that's probably where my career came from was we were the kids 18 19 20 years old that knew social media cuz we'd messed around with it so we sold it to companies right >> and that started my first business and then there was soon hundreds of us >> and there's there's a lot of these apps right now coming out from 18 19 20 year olds have you seen that that one profile of that guy who created Calai. Uh Calai is this this app where you take a photo of your food and then you know it sends it to to AI and it tells you how many calories are in it. Well, the guy's making 50 million bucks a year or whatever it is. And >> yeah, I saw that this morning, funnily enough, $4 million a month he's making from a >> like Chad basically it's an AI rapper obviously. I think he has some, you know, secret sauce that he puts into it, but a lot of a lot of kids these days are using AI to try to leverage that and and try to turn bit turn them into businesses. I do want to say though, I think with $1,000 and with with what Jess Breit said, I think you can still make a decent if you can make a decent income, you can start to slowly save and invest your way to some sort of semblance of retirement. I think you can still be able to retire and be financially independent without having to, let's say, bet your life savings on on crypto. I know that I personally bought Bitcoin at $100, but I've sold it many time, you know, I bought and resold it so many times because, you know, when it's up 10x, you're like, "Oh, like, you know, if if you had given me a 10x return when I first bought it, I like, yeah, I'm taking that any day of the week right?" >> Mhm. [clears throat] >> And so, I think that's why it's so hard. It's like Bitcoin does produce 145% return since 2012, but in 2012, no one knew how to buy it. I bought it on some random sketchy website. I got this like, you know, this this string of characters for my wallet and I I try to buy, you know, I try to buy a coffee at a cafe in Palo Alto and I didn't know that Bitcoin transactions took 30 minutes to go through. So, I sent Bitcoin twice for a $5 coffee. Now, keep in mind, this is 0.1 bitcoins, right? This is 10k worth. It's an expensive coffee. >> I sent it twice and they didn't get it. And guess what? I still had to pay for the coffee with my debit card. >> So, where did my go? >> You spent what? 20k on >> I spent 20k [laughter] on coffee. Yeah, that could be the title of this video. this spent 20k on coffee. Yeah, I literally I I sent it to Koopa Cafe in Palto if anyone wants to go there. I think the average person psychologically speaking, >> it's really hard when it goes down 80%. And if Jasper says you need money like at that moment, you're going to sell it. >> But your your point about I mean the primarily important thing is income. >> Yes. I mean, and that and we talked about last time I was on the podcast, it's like, how do you just leverage the same skills in different ways that you can earn more money from it? Like the story I was told when I left university was speaking to a friend of my dad's, he was like, well, what are you going to do? And my father was in marketing and I liked marketing and but it was like late '8s Wall Street thing was going on. And I'm like, well, I'm thinking about either going uh to work for somebody like Mars, do marketing, you know, great company, or or go and work in the city in London. And the guy looked at me and said, it's really simple, Ral. It's the same job. You're a salesman in both. One, you get free Mars bars, and the other, you get free money. And he realized, oh, there's actually arbitrage in what you can do with the same skill set. >> Mhm. Well, I I would say there is a point. So, I agree. If it was me with $1,000, I'm going to go out and invest in my income, read some books, get whatever I got to do, go start something because that's enough. But if we look at time, $1,000 compounded is decent. If I if you go back 1971, >> but how do I pay for my college loan and my house deposit and I want to get married and have kids? >> You're telling me I can't do that for another 20 years? If I took $1,000 in 1971, I invested that into the S&P 500 and I did nothing else. I keep doing whatever I'm doing, my job, and I only invest $1,000. I never invested another penny again. Today, that would be worth if I reinvested my dividends, about $330,000. And I never invested another penny after the first $1,000 investment. Why? because the S&P 500 has grown by a little bit over 10% a year from 1971 to now. It's something. Now, imagine if I invested $1,000 a year, $1,000 a month. Now, I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist 50 years ago. I can't say that about Bitcoin because Bitcoin didn't exist 25 years ago. And so, >> how about Amazon? >> What about Amazon? >> That's that started trading in 2000 or even better, Facebook 2012. How do I know? >> Do we not invest in it because it wasn't around? It hasn't been around as long as gold. >> I mean, it's been Facebook has been around less than Bitcoin has shorter time >> creates a profit. It has a tangible value that you can see and feel because I can go on to Amazon and order myself a brand new guacamole set. It'll be there in 2 hours. >> They didn't make a single profit until what 2018? >> Well, but that was that wasn't because they weren't producing a value. It's because they were growing so aggressively. You think if you had $1,000, you should you should invest it in the S&P 500. >> Well, I'm not saying you should. I think personal finance is personal. I think if it was me, I'm if I have $1,000 extra and I'm just trying to figure things out, I'm going to go buy some books. I'm going to buy a class. I'm going to do something about how do I increase my income? Going back to what you said, >> but if I'm saying I just want to work my job. I don't want to go out and do all that. I would do half into the S&P 500. Yeah. >> And I would go half into uh individual companies. So, more risk than the S&P 500. not as much risk as the Bitcoin. And the reason why I would do this is because this is something I enjoy. I like that research side of things and I understand this is something that I could see returns with. Like you talked about Amazon, like you talked about Microsoft and whoever, there's potential. >> And what about you, Humphrey? If $10,000, does your strategy change? >> My strategy is a little probably more conservative or traditional. It's probably 90% index funds. Uh so tracking the S&P 500 and then 10% speculative. And my whole goal for that 25-year-old would probably be to get to $100,000 as quickly as possible because at that point I think they have more options and flexibility and they're able to kind of use that capital to maybe take more risk after >> that's still 10 years with the S&P. Well, eight years of the >> S&P about 7.84 years. Yeah. But that also assumes that they're only doing the 10,000 bucks a year. Maybe they they can save and invest a little bit more. That'd be nice. But I think for a lot of people in America, if they can get a guaranteed $100,000 in 7.84 eight four years. I I think a lot of people might opt for that. >> So, I agree, but I'd remove the S&P. >> You do all crypto? >> No, I just do NASDAQ. >> Oh, yeah. You do NASDAQ. >> So, NASDAQ compounds at 18% a year. >> What is NASDAQ? >> The NASDAQ is um the NASDAQ 100, which is the top technology stocks in the United States, right? We live in a world that tomorrow will be more digital than today guaranteed. Um and so therefore, these stocks tend to generate the most performance. And we've talked about many of these names. That is all in the NASDAQ. So a little arbitrage is if you want to shorten your 7.8 years >> to 5 and a half years, six years, >> buy the NASDAQ 100. It's an ETF, zero cost, easy. And then I would say and then do 70% that 30% crypto and you don't have to care about anything. True. >> You're fine. Now, if you have a different risk tolerance, >> you can tweak those dials. or if you are more risk averse then you up your cash dial or or some other more stable flow whether it's gold although gold is still driven by the debasement of currency they're all the same thing they're all driven by the same macro factors but so yeah similar kind of idea >> and [clears throat] the NASDAQ is great if I just say one thing but just like with Bitcoin the difficult part with the 18% is you got to be willing to go through the downturns and I want to make sure that that's clear because I mean the big drop 2000 the NASDAQ fell by 78% from its peak. During that time, the S&P 500 fell about 40%. So, it's a bigger drop. Not to mention, the NASDAQ didn't get to its level until 2015, 15 years later of no money. >> It is still compounded more returns than the S&P. >> Absolutely. If you held on, >> you can't live your life. The drop >> 100%. >> It's got to be in the risk adjusted returns versus the gains. But how many people can hold on for 15 years and say, "Year one, h no big deal. Year two, okay, year three, year five, it's going to go up. Year 10, it's going to go up." And by the way, year 10 was also another crash because >> all you have to do is dollar cost average. >> What's that? So dollar cost averaging is if you're young and you're you've got a bit of excess cash now. You know, you've sold your income a little bit as opposed to just chucking everything in or you do you put your large sum in. You've saved up your 10 grand, but now you've got maybe $500 a month of of free capital you want to put into your savings. So when you have these drawdowns, you're actually keep buying. And what happens is it lowers your average cost over time and you get to new all-time highs in your portfolio much before the market did. So for example, in the last crypto down cycle in 22, in 22 all I did was add as much as I could to my crypto. So I was at new all-time highs in my portfolio well before the market was because I'd lowered my average entry. That compounds your profits over time incredibly. And is there something psychological there where if you commit to the habit of just putting $500 in regardless of what happens, >> you remove emotion. >> You remove a bit of emotion from it. >> And the emotion is the thing that people struggle with. If you're investing in things that are more volatile, um you firstly understand that you will see larger draw downs when markets go down. Usually they're all correlated. They all go down the same time, all up at the same time. >> So you're going to do that. But if you tell yourself that's an advantage for me because I can buy more, that's a secret hack that makes people fortunes compounding. This is Warren Buffett's thing. >> I% agree with that. >> More companies in a bare market than in a bull market because >> I agree it. >> Yeah, I I 100% agree with that part. I call it poop. >> Uh panic leads to overselling leads to opportunity leads to profit. So I am on board with that. But that requires a specific level of financial sophistication. >> No, even your Coinbase app can just you can >> dollar cost average. >> But how many people can dollar cost average down 70% for 15 years waiting to see that? >> It wasn't 70% in 15 years. It was it was 70% in one year and then rallied ever since. Every single year after year after year it went up. >> Down. Well, no. After the 2008 crash, the Nasdaq also again crashed more than the S&P 500. >> And then step back and look at the returns of the NASDAQ first. >> I agree. Over the long term, it's a great investment, but volatility is hard for the average person who doesn't have the emotional IQ and the financial sophistication to understand. >> That's our job to educate them. >> Yes, >> our job is to help people in this journey >> and not get them to make decisions that compromise their future. We have to help them. I agree. And riskadjusted returns and time horizon are two of the single most important thing. >> Investing your money is hard and on this channel I teach how you can start investing your money yourself. But for some of you, working with a financial adviser, somebody who is a professional will be a better option because now it's more hands-off and you can work with a professional who will manage and invest your money for you. And that's why I partnered with my sponsor, Money Pickle. The reason why I like Money Pickle is because first they get to know you and what your needs are and then they match you with a vetted financial adviser who would be best suited for your needs and then they give you a free consultation call with the financial adviser. That way you can get a feel of the financial adviser and see if they're right for you or not. That way you don't have to go through a high pressure sales process with somebody who might not even be a good fit for you. If you're interested in learning more and you have over $100,000 in assets, the process is pretty simple. All you have to do is complete a short form. I have that link for you down in the description. It takes a few minutes to complete and once you do that, Money Pickle will review your answers and then pair you with a vetted financial adviser who they believe is best suited for you. It's a completely free process. That initial consultation again is free and then if you decide to move forward then you can negotiate and discuss what your rates and terms look like with that financial adviser directly. So if you want help managing your money and you want to work with a vetted financial adviser, my sponsor Money Pickle can help get you paired up with a financial adviser at no additional cost. So if you want to learn more, I have that link for you down in the description. >> And so what I hear I mean through history contrarians have made the most money. Um, and also I think one the other thing that I've really pulled out from what you both were just saying there is you need to set up a system that removes emotion and requires you to not make decisions because it's in making decisions that your amydala the emotional center of your brain is going to do make a bad one. And it's that I think that that self-awareness emerges from what you were both saying which is okay my brain is going to panic. It's going to poop or whatever you were talking about there [laughter] and I need a system which is panic proof. So, you know that the best performing brokerage accounts in the United States are dead people. It's true. It's a known fact because they don't do anything. So, they have these accounts that haven't been closed and they're inactive. They outperform all the active people. >> You are 100% in crypto in terms of your investment portfolio. >> Yeah. So, you must be sat here thinking that actually when I ask that $10,000 question, what what would should someone do with $10,000? You must be thinking that the right answer is to put it into crypto. >> The right answer for me is that to his point, >> but you look, I I actually would say, but you know, this is it's an audience of people and people misinterpret things. Yes. The answer is we've been given the gift of the greatest performing asset the world has ever been given. That's not just Bitcoin. It's the the crypto complex if you're very careful in investing in like top projects. You can even have a more a broader diversified portfolio of that like you've had Ethereum, Bitcoin, Salana, Suie, all of these things. Great. They will definitely outperform for a period of time and that's based on macroeconomic factors which is the debasement of currency which we've talked about. That means all of these assets go up by a certain amount and some outperform it. The only two assets that out for the debasement of currencies is the NASDAQ and crypto. This has been a persistent trend that is observable and measurable. So this is not a speculative asset. What it is is a mech law adoption model. Bitcoin is the adoption of let's say a money or collateral layer like digital gold we'll call it. While the rest of crypto is the new rails for the internet. So it's a tech technological investment. It is growing at twice the speed of the internet in terms of adoption and has been since the first 5 million IP addresses for the internet and the first 5 million wallets. Twice the speed of the internet makes it the fastest adoption of any technology the world has ever seen aside from AI now which is now outpacing it. >> If if we sit here in 20 years time >> Yeah. >> and you were wrong. >> Yeah. >> What happened do you think? Well, firstly, in terms of investments, you have to always once you have a high conviction bet, your entire job is to question yourself, not to keep reaffirming yourself. Sure, you end up reaffirming by questioning and then you you figure it out. For it not to have been true, what would have happened? The AI would have had a new system of money that it created. This there has to be a competitor to this because we're now in the game of nation. nations are acquiring this. The Middle East nations, nations in Asia, the US wants to acquire it. So we've got and we've got South American nations. So it's now the game of nations, geopolitics. This is a real thing. But what changes in 20 years time? Well, in 20 years time, we're in a very different world. The economic engine is driven by robots and infinite intelligence. We don't know how the economic machine works. We don't even know what the value of money is when we go into that world. So I've talked about this before, the economic singularity. Past 2030, the economic model breaks down. So the the economy generally grows by a measure of population growth, how many people are in the economy um or coming into the economy or being born, productivity, how much output they create, and then debt growth is is the other lever. What's happened here is the population of the entire western world plus Japan plus China has been aging. So the rate of change of population growth is shrinking. They tried immigration but that became politically unacceptable. So that's stopped. So you got this slowing economy. GDP growth has been slowing over time. Productivity. Old people make less things. So it makes less economic output. So we've got this mess and then we got this debt and we stopped that whole engine in 2008 and we need to service this debt. So okay, so that's the system we're in and this is why we're printing money to service this debt because we're not generating enough output in the economy. But after 2030, this population part changes. We've got infinite artificial humans. >> You're talking about AI agents and robotics. >> Yeah, infinite. So what does that do for that that the multiplier of that formula, you know, population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth? It breaks because you're going to have 20% GDP growth because you've had an huge rise in the number of AI agents creating economic activity in robots. >> And so what does that mean for for me as a average person? >> For me is like the economic system starts changing. We get to this world of abundance. We don't know what has value. what we as humans do. We we we change and retool to become more humans because AI and robots can't be humans. So, [snorts] we have to figure all of this stuff out. Investing, we were talking about this earlier, is like, well, does the the AGI is that going to be a better investor than any of us? Yes. >> Artificial general intelligence. >> That's the next stage where it's smarter than any human that's ever existed and we're very close to that. So, in which case, well, how do markets work? And when businesses are agents selling stuff to other agents, where do we play a role? So all I'm saying is my job my whole life has to been to look into the future sort of 10 years out and try and probabilistically understand paths. Here I get to like 2030 and it's like a dark curtain. Just to flip that for a second, how could AI actually positively influence your hypothesis? I'm very positive about AI. I think humanity will come out this just fine. I think economic growth that explodes is we can work a way of accreing it to to humans or society or whatever we want to do with this. I'm not an AI doomer >> specifically on Bitcoin's value and price. How could AI make it even more important in >> Well, in the end, an AI is a it requires two inputs. It requires it's it's Maslo's hierarchy of needs is basically two things. Compute and energy and it needs to be paid. These agents can't you can't build all this agents of billions of agents running around doing things without paying for them. And agents will use agents. So they will one agent will get another 10 agents to do all this task. They're all going to have to be paid. And the way of doing that is using crypto rails, >> stable coins, >> whether it's stable coins, whatever it is. But that whole crypto rail, you know, all of this new infrastructure for the internet, the the blockchain, that's where it works. >> In our economic system, you can't become wealthy by working a job. Doesn't matter if you were a teacher, a truck driver, a doctor, or an executive. The way you become wealthy is by owning the right assets. [music and singing] That way, now you can get paid even if you stop working. Because if you stop working at your job, the money stops coming in, but you still got bills to pay.