the tip, the smallest slice, is the speculative names, like APLD and IREN. Huge potential upside if the AI build-out keeps going, real chance of a big loss otherwise. This should be small position sizes only.
the tip, the smallest slice, is the speculative names, like APLD and IREN. Huge potential upside if the AI build-out keeps going, real chance of a big loss otherwise. This should be small position sizes only.
Full Transcript
Everybody wants to buy great companies. Everybody wants to buy stocks that are just going to shoot off to the moon. Nobody wants to buy them when they're red. But, here's the thing that separates the investors who actually build wealth from the ones who just watch. Great investing is not only about buying great companies with big upside. It's about buying those great companies at a discount because the price you pay decides your return just as much as the company that you pick. Now, right now, during this 2026 big pullback here in the middle, I've got six great companies that are all down more than 25% from their all-time high. Two of them, a legend named Warren Buffett, would call textbook undervalued. Let me show you the data. My name is Nolan Gouveia. My students call me Professor G, and I made this channel to make investing simplified. Remember that all investing carries risk, so do your own research. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a financial advisor. 2026 has been a choppy, tech-heavy year. The headline index looks calm, but underneath the surface, quality names got cut hard. In early June, the Nasdaq had its worst day in over a year, down more than 4% in a single session on an AI chip scare. And even on days the S&P 500 printed near a record, the average stock in that index was sitting double digits below its own 52-week high. Here's basically what happened. The whole market so far has spent 2026 repricing anything tied to that massive AI spending. Chips, data centers, the big cloud players, investors got scared that all this AI capex won't pay off fast enough, and they hit the sell button. That fear created exactly the value that I'm going to show you. There's an old Warren Buffett line, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." When a great business goes on sale because the crowd is scared, that gap between price and value is where the opportunity lives. Be greedy when others are fearful. That's the entire idea behind this video. And before I show you the actual stocks in this video, I'm going to show you the exact metrics and how I find these stocks. Because at this point in the market, having a system matters so much more. I always like to make sure that I'm teaching people how to fish rather than just giving them a fish. The tool I use is called Investing Pro from investing.com. Specifically, I use two things. First is Pro Picks AI. It's an AI model trained on over 50 financial signals and its strategies of historic outperformed the S&P 500. I just use that to see what the AI is flagging as of right now. Then once it surfaces something interesting, I zoom in to validate it. Thank you to investing.com for sponsoring this video. So let me show you exactly how I do this. Here's the strategy relevant to today's market. You can see it's outperformed the S&P 500 and not by a little margin. It's absolutely crushing it. And right now it's currently flagging CME as one of its top picks. So I click in and see so much analysis, but huge right here it shows that it's currently undervalued and has 13% increase upside just to reach fair value. Pro Picks found it and then fair value validated it. Now hedge funds spend a lot of money getting data like this. Investing Pro gives retail investors the exact same analysis for a fraction of that cost. It's not going to tell you exactly what to buy. That needs to be your call, but it gives you this data layer that most retail investors don't even know exists. If you want to run the same fair value check on any stock you're watching right now, investing.com's running their summer sale up to 60% off the best price of the year. But if you use my link below, you get an extra 15% on top of that. Meaning the lowest price available in the market in the whole year. Don't miss out. It's the first link on the description of this video. Now let's get into the data. Those six stocks. I've split these six into three tiers by risk, lowest risk to highest, so you know exactly what you're looking at with each one. So, tier one is the quality compounders on sale. Number one is Microsoft. The stock is around $390 as I record this, down about 27% from its October 2025 high of roughly $538. Now, why is a company that's this good down so much? One reason, spending. Microsoft guided to around $190 billion in capital spending this fiscal year, up about 61% and higher memory chip prices are adding roughly a $25 billion cost hit. Wall Street got nervous about all that money going out the door. But, here's the other side of that. Azure and cloud grew about 40%. Their AI revenue run rate hit roughly $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year. So, the spending is meeting real demand, not hope. This is a company that's actually earning its way into this whole AI future. And here's the number that matters most, especially when we're talking about value in this video. Microsoft trades around 21 times forward earnings, the low end of its range in years. Morningstar currently flags Microsoft as significantly undervalued, a full five-star rating with a fair value around $600. And they literally called it maybe the best core stock bargain in the market today. Number two is the same story, just a different company, and this one is Meta. It's at around $583 as I record, down about 26% from its August 2025 high near $787. But, it's the same exact plot. Meta raised its 2026 capital spending guide to a range of 125 to 145 billion dollars, nearly double the year before. But, look at the core business under the hood. Q1 2026 revenue grew 33%. Operating income up 30%, a 41% operating margin. This is one of the most profitable advertising machines ever built, and it's funding the AI I from a position of strength, not desperation. Meta trades around 18 times forward earnings. That is cheap for Meta. Morningstar has Meta at a four-star rating, moderately undervalued with a fair value around $850 against a price under $600. Two of the biggest businesses in the world, both of them continuing to grow, they're just spending a lot. They're just building infrastructure. And for me, as an entrepreneur, as somebody who's built businesses before, I know that it costs money to make money. And so, I'm not worried about these and I love both of these names. Now, tier two, this is two names that aren't tech at all because the discount is not just an AI story. The first one is Nike, around $44 a share as I record this. It's all-time high back in 2021 was roughly $179. So, this stock is down about 73% from its peak. Remember, this is Nike, one of the most easily recognizable companies on the planet. Why is it so cheap? China. China sales fell about 12% and the turnaround under this new CEO has been pretty frustrating and very, very slow. But, here's what the fear is missing. This is a wide moat global company mid-turnaround. And the early signs are starting to finally show up. North America revenue grew about 3%. They beat on earnings last quarter and the 2026 World Cup is a massive catalyst for a company that literally sells the world's game. Morningstar rates Nike a four-star undervalued with a fair value more than double the current price. Now, I'll be honest with you and this is definitely important. Part of last quarter's beat came from a one-time tariff recovery and management's guidance is still flat. So, this is a turnaround, not a finished comeback. But, you're buying one of the strongest brands in history at a fraction of its peak. Now, the second one is also consumer name. It's absolutely one of the cheapest on the market. It's actually a brand that I wear and use all the time. This is Lululemon, l u l u. It's at around $118 as I record, down roughly 77% from its late 2023 high near $511. Listen to this value. Lululemon trades around nine to 10 times earnings. That's less than half of what the S&P 500 trades at and dirt cheap versus Lululemon's own history. A premium brand at a bargain multiple. The fear around this company is just so crazy right now. They cut their full year guidance. Tariffs are pressuring margins and sales in the Americas have been soft for several quarters. So yes, it is somewhat struggling and especially when you just hear those things, but the business is still premium. Gross margins around 55% roughly $1.5 billion net income, almost no debt, and international still long-term growth runway. Morningstar pegs fair value around $295 against a price near $118. So they see a big discount. I will say the broader Wall Street crowd is more cautious here, more of a hold. So this is the higher conviction required name of the two. Obviously, they're both going through things where there's a whole bunch of bad news out there, bad sentiment, and so far the market has decided that this is just going to be permanent. I don't think so. I think that they're just going through some things, growing, and to me, this is where you can make some money in a deep value. Let's go on to tier three and these two names are definitely have the highest possible upside, but also the biggest risk. Now hear the risk part carefully. So this is the picks and shovels layer of the AI boom. The companies building the actual data centers and compute that AI runs on. The upside's huge, the risk is huge. I've talked about both of these companies a lot on this channel and I invest very heavily in both of these as far as individual companies because I do believe in them long-term. First one is Applied Digital APLD around $34 a share as I record this, down roughly 30% from its May 2026 high near $50. The bull case would be that Applied Digital's building AI data center capacity. They've signed major leases with Coreweave and they've crossed more than a gigawatt of contracted capacity. If AI compute demand keeps exploding, this is a direct picks and shovels way to play it. Wall Street's average price target is around $73, more than double today. Now, the risk, and you need to hear this. And just as a side note, if you're ever watching YouTube videos, and especially they're talking about things that can go up, double, triple, something crazy, and they don't talk about any risk, I would be very skeptical about who's talking about it, and also what they're talking about. Anyway, let's talk about the risk here. Applied Digital's not profitable. It burned around $720 million of cash in a single quarter, which tells you it can't fund this buildout on its own. And around 69% of its contracted revenue is tied to one customer. So, this is a high risk. It could soar, and it could also fall along the way. This is not Microsoft. Size it accordingly. Last name, same risk as before, but it's down even more than its high. I ran, IREN, around $39 as I record, down nearly 50% from its November 2025 high near $76. The bull case here is definitely interesting. I ran started as a Bitcoin miner, which means it already owns the two scarce things AI needs, power and data center shelves. Now, it's pivoting that infrastructure into AI cloud, anchored by a $3.4 billion Nvidia cloud contract. It owns the real estate of the AI boom. So, why is it cut in half right now? There's a couple of reasons. There's fear that Meta expanding its own AI cloud could squeeze the pricing for smaller cloud players like I ran. Management handed itself a large stock grant that shareholders didn't love, and it still moves with the price of Bitcoin. Now, this has the same disclaimer as AP LD, and I definitely mean it. These two are speculative. They're volatile. They could have massive drawdowns, and actually have had massive drawdowns since I've been an investor in them. My recommendation is that if you do do your own research, and you do decide to have them, have them as small portions of the portfolio, so they can't just absolutely crush your portfolio in half. So, how would you actually use all of this? Let me give you the framework. Think in tiers, the same way we just went through them. The base of the pyramid is the quality compounders, like Meta and Microsoft. Great businesses, undervalued per independent research, and have temporary fear. This is where most of a dip buyer's money should go. The middle is the quality turnarounds, Nike and Lululemon. Great brands, real problems, but priced for a discount if the turnaround works. Higher conviction definitely is required here. But the tip, the smallest slice, is the speculative names, like APLD and IREN. Huge potential upside if the AI build-out keeps going, real chance of a big loss otherwise. This should be small position sizes only. So, here are my three rules on buying the dip. Rule one, a lower price is not the same as a discount. A discount means the business is still great, and the fear is temporary. If the business itself is broken, that's not a sale, that's a trap. Rule two, buy in pieces, not all at once. Nobody catches the exact bottom. Dollar cost average into the names you believe in, so you're not betting everything on one day. Rule three, size by risk. The riskier the name, the smaller the position. That's how you get the upside without betting the farm. If you want to see my exact portfolio breakdown watch this video that I just recently did, and it goes over everything, so you can see how I'm investing exactly. Or watch this video that I just did recently to keep you going smart in investing, and keep investing simplified.
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