Context
I think we we we still probably want to see that final little breakout a couple of dollars higher, but same kind of idea. Same shallowing, stage one base holding above the 30, pushing right up here to 200. So, ideally, I would love to see a nice strong day through 200 on decent volume. That's going to trigger the buy for V E E V.
You buy this thing it here at 19 and a half, call it, risk two, three bucks a share.
Full Transcript
According to investing legend, Stan Weinstein, this is the ideal place to buy stock. Right here is it is transitioning from the stage one accumulation phase into the stage two markup phase, which typically sees the most growth in a stock. Now, today I'm going to walk you through this, why it works, and in fact show you five stocks at this exact buy point right now. I scanned manually the entire S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ 100 to find stocks that are not ripping into new all-time highs, but in fact coming off their lows at a key breakout level. Now, Stan Weinstein, a former hedge fund manager, is renowned as one of the best stage analysis traders of all time, but his work actually piggybacks off somebody from the 1920s. His name was Richard Wyckoff, and in fact, I've got a copy of the book he wrote a hundred years ago right here. This copy, it is a printed version of his typewriter book, sells I think I paid $400 for it. Original copies regularly sell for tens of thousands because he was the first one to lay out the stages, and I'm going to show them to you right now. So, this is a weekly chart of Roku that lays out the four stages of the stock cycle, and this one stage one here is a little bit short. I It It really would have been something like this, but then we had the COVID sell-off here in 2020 that pushed everything down, but it'll do for the illustration. And what this involves is how institutions buy and sell stocks and what it does to that name. The stage one's the accumulation stage where the stock is cheap, it's a value stock, it's bouncing off the lows. It's not very exciting, and this is typically when big institutions are accumulating those shares. They're buying at that value. Stage two is known as the markup phase where the bulk of the profits happen, the stock is in demand, revenue's growing, sales are growing, the story is good, whatever it may be, and the stock sees a pretty steady rise higher over a period of months or sometimes years. Stage three is known as a distribution phase when those big institutional investors who drove the thing up in the first place have now reached full value or one out of the stock and they begin exiting the position, which then leads to stage four, which is the big markdown where leading stocks and we're talking PayPals and Netflixes and big mega cap names typically fall 50 to 80%. They go down into stage four, enter a new stage one, and then repeat into a new stage two uptrend. And that's what this image here shows. This is Weinstein's ideal buy point. And so what you're looking at, whoops, let me make this bigger for you. What you're looking at here is the chart, this little jagged line, that's the stock this is a line chart with a 30-week moving average. And so the idea being that it comes down into this big stage four. Stage one is this accumulation base down here below that horizontal line. It then breaks out while above the 30-week moving average and and it identified two buy points. One is the first exit and you often get a retest there at point B for a push higher. Now we are several years in a strong bull market right now. A lot of stocks, especially in AI and some of the stronger areas, are up two, three, 500 plus percent already, but I did some digging, went through as I said about 600 stocks and I found five that meet this criteria. I'm going to show them to you right now. So I'm going to show you these as a daily chart, but this only moving average is right here. It is the 30-week moving average. So the same one on Weinstein's line. And what I filtered for stocks that are down 40, 50 plus percent from their highs, then based out and it formed some type of a shallowing pattern here off the low and are now emerging from a stage one base into stage two above that 30-week moving average. The first one here is Toast, ticker t o s t. The stock fell from low 50s all the way to low 20s, so about a 60% drop. And then we can see here as a stock came in and deepened and shallowed and has tightened up right here above the 30-week moving average and is in fact right now just breaking out into highs. And if we draw this as a line chart, just like in the image that Weinstein provided, here's a kind of horizontal line he's drawn there. There's a 30-week moving average cupping right underneath this little final handle. And as we see a small peak or shallow dip then a deeper one, shallow dip then a deeper one, comes back again, nice final little wedge here and pushing higher. So Toast is one, ticker t o s t. And as we can see here really quickly, still seeing really good earnings growth, really good sales growth. So it's not as if we have a company that is hemorrhaging cash or losing money. I filtered this down to one still seeing decently strong fundamentals. Stock number two, Now look, if you're ready to take your trading to the next level, let me show you how to do it for just five bucks, okay? You can join my Black Ops membership for an entire year for just $5, no strings. And what you're going to get is an entire year of one-hour live weekly mentoring sessions with me and the other members every single Monday. Another live session with my analyst. I'm going to send you my weekly stock newsletter every single Friday. You're going to get my indicators, bonus reports, even access to my support team, all for just $5. So to take advantage, click that link in description or go to tradewithross.com. In these live sessions, we're going to review the leading stocks right now, precise entry and exit rules, where to sell stocks, we review your names. Nothing is off-limits. It's fully interactive. So, click that link to sign up so you can join me this coming Monday and every Monday for the next year. Two, Ryan, ticker R Y A N, specialty holdings firm. Once again, not blockbuster 200% growth, but pretty steady 15 20% quarterly growth to sales and profits. And just like our last stock, we had a very similar pattern. Fell all the way here from 77 down to 30, cut by 60 70%. You draw that kind of horizontal line as you see that accumulation phase down here in stage one. It comes in, tightens up, breaks through the 30-week, little retest, and should be starting a new stage two uptrend higher. Stock number three, uh V E E V. This is Veeva Systems. Again, big decline, 50% from its peak at the end of last year. Let me blow this chart up. And then this one could be a little bit early. I think we we we still probably want to see that final little breakout a couple of dollars higher, but same kind of idea. Same shallowing, stage one base holding above the 30, pushing right up here to 200. So, ideally, I would love to see a nice strong day through 200 on decent volume. That's going to trigger the buy for V E E V. Number four, P A Y X, Paychex Inc. Slightly slower mover at about 3% per day, but playing out perfectly. You can see that big kind of year and a half, I guess about one year decline here from 160 down to 85. We'll draw a horizontal line right in here. And these are not going to be perfect like to the penny. All right, there there's still wars going on, there's still things that happen, but you just want to look for this overall structure. And you see here, this one broke out here above the 30. There's your retest, bounced like clockwork, currently sitting at 111 and trending higher. And then the fifth one, this one could be the one I'm most excited about. Klarna Group, ticker K L A R. And you might be wondering, Ross, why does the moving average start in the middle of the chart? Well, it's a 30-week moving average. That's what it had finally been trading for 30 weeks. This is a recent IPO. It went public here in September of 2025. So, it's almost a year old. And the first breakout, the first stage two breakout in a fresh IPO historically has been the absolute best place to buy a stock for the long term. Most IPOs, and we're seeing this with SpaceX, do exactly what this one did. They priced the IPO here, it jumps out on the opening day, makes a little push, comes down, hovers around the IPO price, and then gets, you know, crushed cuz the valuation was too high, builds a position, and then starts its long-term move higher. And so, we have Klarna, which hit $55, $56 a share, fell all the way to 12, and then look at this just textbook stage one base that has formed here off the lows. Look at how it has come in and shallowed beautifully here, breaks through the 30-week, perfect little retest, and should be setting up for a move higher. There's obviously no guarantees, but you buy this thing it here at 19 and a half, call it, risk two, three bucks a share. Like, so it gets down below 17, it's probably a failure and it's not ready. But if it begins to run, I would expect this stock to run at least up here into the mid-30s, and And on the quality of the company, their their earnings growth, their sales growth, you know, what the numbers look like going forward, potentially back up here to 40s, 50s, and beyond, which is going to be a double or triple from today's price if it plays out as expected, okay? So, that's the five stocks that meet Stan Weinstein and Richard Wyckoff's criteria for a new stage two breakout. RYAN TOST VEEV, PAYX, and the final one Clarona, KLAR. Folks, if you got value out of this video, don't forget to subscribe to the channel, and remember that Black Ops membership is still going on. It is just $5 an entire year of 1-hour live weekly mentoring sessions with me and the other members every week all included for five bucks, a Thursday session with my analyst, my weekly newsletter delivered straight to your inbox every week for a year, indicator bonus reports, tons of stuff there, just five bucks, no strings. So, click the link in the description, scan the QR code on the tradewithross.com to get signed up, and I'll see you in the next video.
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