Memory Stocks Are Crashing, Should You Buy the Dip?

A lot of the the spook in the market of last few weeks have been around people thinking that we're going to start consuming less tokens because it's getting too expensive. And I think the market is getting that wrong. >> What's up everybody? It's LG Duce here and welcome to Milk Road AI, the daily AI show that doesn't think any amount of super intelligence will ever be able to solve life's most frustrating problems like untangling a bunch of cords or finding that extra sock. Today is July 15th, 2026 recording on July 14th. This is our weekly roll up episode where we sit down with our top three AI analysts and discuss what's happening in the market and where they are putting their capital to work. Today, the market is in turmoil. CPI came in really good, so lots of stuff is popping off, but memory is down despite having a strong bull case for basically everything that's to come in tech and AI and many experts, like our own, believing that the cyclicality of memory is a thing of the past and that prices will only go higher. We also kick off the episode by talking Apple and how they are incredibly well positioned to make the next version of Siri the all-in-one dominant application for AI. Plus, I challenge the guys towards the end. What do we take for their ultra bullish stances to change a little bit to bearish? And if you want to see their portfolios, you can get access to their trades and positions in Milk Road Pro. It's only a dollar to test it out for a week. They already called Micron, Nebius, Bloom way before they ran and they got more coming. So, smash the link below to go pro. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitget Stocks 2.0 with real liquidity, real dividends, and securitized the regulated rails for tokenization. All right, boys, we're back. Uh lots of action in the market today that I'm desperate to understand. Let's do our little roundabout where you you guys each give me your thoughts on the market. Melvin, let's start with you, man. How are you feeling today? >> Yeah, market's kind of flat today. Um there was a lot of weakness in Is it flat? Is it flat? >> No, what do you mean? We're ripping. What? We had inflation the lowest inflation print we've had like 5 years or the lowest drop anyway. What do you mean? The Nasdaq's up 1.3%. >> SPY's at 0.35%, bro. Are you kidding me? >> Bitcoin's up 3 and 1/2%. >> No, he doesn't >> reality is Melvin is used to different swings, man. He's used to like 10% in a day. >> Who is that that's talking, man? Never heard that clear voice. >> Hey, by the way, before Melvin gives his his take here, just before this, we finally figured out Vincent's mic. Everyone, we've seen your comments over the last 4 weeks. Our IT guy spent 3 hours with him last week, did not fix it. LG just realized his mic was backwards. It was backwards, guys, for the last 4 weeks. So, now when Vincent talks, he sounds great. We're back. Let's go. All right Melvin. >> AI AI is going to solve a lot of problems, guys, but there's some that it will never solve, ever. >> [laughter] >> You'll still need some 40-year-old dude to tell you what to do. >> [laughter] >> Oh, Barry's European for sure. >> Okay, Barry's European, Barry's Gen Z. >> 3 seconds into Melvin's Melvin's weekly analysis. Okay, Melvin Melvin thinks the the market is flat. Why do you think that, Melvin? Cuz there's some stuff moving, there's some start stuff that isn't. >> Maybe it's down. >> Nvidia's down. Um there's been a lot of weakness in that sector, uh mainly because there was couple bit couple losses that came out uh recently about them. And as well as the all the meta news that came like almost a week and a half ago that really pulled them down to a certain price level, and it's now it's going to take a little bit more news for them to even come out. It was The funniest thing is there was news today that they signed a $1 billion contract today, so Nvidia's was actually up to 221 in pre-market. Now, because of the overall market sentiment, they dipped all the way down to 197. Uh but other than that, I still remain bullish as ever on Neo Cloud and overall the state of our economy and the state of the market. I think we we are in a really good place, and I think we're going to continue to rip into end of this year. And I think uh summer is a really bad time for stocks in general. It's tend to be choppy. So, I expect that to clear out by end of this month or into the next month, I think we're going higher. >> And this is actually at 193 just so you're aware Mel but let me give my quick take. So I think yesterday we had a pretty big sell-off and we've kind of had a sell-off because of what happened with Meta. So everyone thought that the AI infra trade was was kind of overdone. So last week you had memory has been selling off for like maybe a couple weeks now. The Neo clouds sold off and then yesterday there was I don't know why but we had like peak fear that inflation was going to go higher the Fed was going to raise rates and I was I went on Schwab network yesterday and was like guys this makes no sense. I don't know why everyone's saying this. We are definitely going down in inflation and this morning it came out and it was 3. 5 expectations were 3.8. I think it was 4.1 last month. So it was the biggest drop we've seen since I think 2000 or 2022 and I don't know to me that was quite obvious. There's no way the the the Fed is going to hike rates and yet the the market started pricing yesterday. So that's why we are seeing some green like I mean DRAM is up 7% and Muse up 6% Nvidia up 4% you know crypto's kind of ripping SAS has been okay in parts. So overall things have been actually pretty good in the market today and I think that's just everyone kind of sold off because of these inflation fears. That's no longer a thing. I do not believe that the Fed is going to cut at the end of this month. It's all craziness. I think we're going much higher. >> Wow. Wow. Vincent how about you man? Mr. new voice. >> So um I agree that short-term the macro side is important here with also renewed kind of tensions in the Iran which is kind of the opposite side to what the inflation data showed today but oil prices up 10% over the last two days or so. So that may may have some negative impacts on the short-term. Mid to longer term though I agree with Mel but I'm I'm really bullish on AI infra. I think this kind of mid cycle slow down of of of Micron and Energy and and all the other names was really healthy. We're back to this kind of 200-day average moving average, right? So, to me a great buying opportunity as well in in in the names we like there. And also the AI adoption side of things, especially with agents starting to consume to consume is really interesting me more and more by the day. And I think there's some great kind of investment setups there as well. >> Ooh, okay, right on. Well, that I mean that that's that's pretty cool. What do you Actually, I want to dig into that, Vincent. What do you mean like on the agentic side? Are you talking about crypto stuff or you talking about just other other platforms that you're seeing? >> Yeah. So, let me give a let me give a a broader kind of context here before jumping into what I like here. If you look at the recent chart that was launched by Claude, I think it was last week. It was basically a report on how people and companies are using their their AI tools. You see that about 37% of Claude usage is mainly, so of the agentic side, is mainly computer and mathematical. It's a category, it's basically coding, right? All the agents today are used for coding. We're All of us are building dashboards. I think we built like me personally, I built like 100 dashboards using like three or four of them, [laughter] but hey, that's what I did. And what what what we're seeing in the market is that we're slowly moving into this space away from coding only to agents actually consuming, right? One use case is for instance Robinhood. They introduced AI agents that can use the credit cards to buy stuff. They introduced agents to to trade on the platform. Um but then obviously also Apple, I think Carl, you you had a great X post on that as well, is is is is moving into the part of AI agents actually like moving towards the consumer side of things. Um and this makes me really bullish on A how much tokens and compute we're going to need moving forward, so much more because today the compute demand is basically us going to Claude telling it, "Hey, build this and that." Then it comes back with a final solution. In the future, we maybe have our iPhones or our agents on Robinhood that will constantly 24/7 research, trade, build stuff for us without us even knowing. And that will burn so much compute, so that makes me really bullish on on the infra side of things. So, again, great buying opportunity at the moment, but then also on the adoption side of things. So, company actually getting ROIC, but then also what you said, LG, around especially if it comes to finance, um the whole digital assets, crypto side of things those agents need rails, economic rails, in the future to do stuff. And yeah, that's that's the view. >> A lot of the the spook in the market of last few weeks have been around people thinking that we're going to start consuming less tokens because it's getting too expensive. And I think the market is getting that wrong. We are going to start using more open-source models because they are cheaper uh or even like Grok just put out a model that is, you know, much cheaper but as good as I think it's Fable. Um and so, um we're going to start using cheaper models. I think token costs are going to go down, but that just means we're going to use so much more tokens, and that's all going to come from autonomy. Autonomy in both agents and then autonomy in robotics, right? Those are the two big things that are going to make token usage go from, you know, I mean, right now it's already accelerating at a very fast rate, and I think it's going to hockey stick curve upwards because again, we're still very barely even touched the the the limits in what we're we're going to use AI for. It's still mainly people using it just for chat and for the most part it's around coding. And I think we're about to enter the world of not just coding, but using it for everything else. And so actually that's that's one of the reasons why I think Apple has performed so well. If you look at the hyperscalers, uh Apple's the best performing year to date and uh it's a big part of of my portfolio. And um the reason I actually bought Apple was a few months ago I was like, well, if you know, um AI can take used to to build out we're going to need different devices. You know, I had to upgrade my computer so that I could use agents. I had to buy a MacBook Mini. My phone was really really old and I was like, you know, what? I already know I'm going to need a new phone if I'm going to use agents. Now, that hasn't played out just yet. We haven't really got the unlocks within our Apple devices that are forcing everyone to buy a new phone, but I think you can tell that it's coming, right? And my my thinking is that where Apple has put themselves right now is actually to be the best um the the best company to benefit from consumer agents. So, not from coding like we do in in Claude or in ChatGPT today or even in what Grok just launched with Cursor, but consumer agentic, which still is very very small, if anything not even existent really. But when I say consumer agents, that's like me using um AI to, I don't know, book a trip for me to wherever, right? Or to buy something on Amazon for me. People have talked about this a lot. It doesn't really exist that much today for a few reasons, but a lot of it just the tech isn't really there to allow our apps to go and do things for us uh on websites and have payments and all that kind of stuff. But I don't know, earlier this year um Apple launched I think it's called intents or whatever inside their apps. And so basically it allows Siri to go and do things inside apps that exist on the iPhone. And [snorts] that's going to take a while for the apps to kind of adjust to that, to build that. They've got to connect the models to that. So, there's a lot of things that need to get figured out there, but ultimately what I think Apple's playing for and this is why they they go and spend all this CapEx and build their own AI is they're going to end up becoming in my opinion the aggregator for AI. Kind of like an open router where they'll, you know, you'll just you'll you'll talk to Siri, you'll tell it to, I don't know, buy something on Amazon, and if it's an easy task doesn't need to do a lot of research, it'll use a very cheap model, it'll go into Amazon, it'll order it, and boom. You didn't have to touch your phone. You just said, "Hey Siri." And then ordered something, right? Or, "Hey Siri, can you research this for me and then book a trip?" My phone's going off right now. I never use Siri cuz Siri's dumb as hell right now. But, if they can get this figured out and I can use my agents through Siri, that's going to be a massive, massive revenue driver driver for Apple because they basically can tax the entire agentic economy. And I think that's how it'll play out because I really don't think people are going to want to go and open up their phone and then click on the Claude or the ChatGPT button and then text or speak to ChatGPT to like go and do whatever. You're just going to your phone's sitting on your computer, you're just going to say, "Hey Siri, do this." Right? A lot of people already use Siri and it's not smart. Think about what happens when it becomes smart and can actually do things for you. That's kind of the big unlock I think that happens for Apple. Then two things happen. One, a new revenue stream for Apple. They can They can either like have a subscription-based thing for how much you can use it or they can take a cut off every single payment that happens through Apple Pay, right? And probably they'll end up doing both of that, I would assume. So, that's like one huge, huge, huge new revenue stream that comes to to Apple. Second is the device upgrade, right? In order to use this stuff, right now I think Morgan Stanley says there's 1.3 million phones can't use the agentic Siri application. 1.3 billion, sorry. And so like most of the phones need to be upgraded to the new hardware in order to use this. Now again, that doesn't exist yet, but when that comes, I think that's what we're going to see and that's just a huge, huge revenue driver for Apple. I I I fully agree on this. I wrote my first article on Apple. I think it was one of the first MicroProw reports actually back in March or so where I was saying, "Hey, on-prem AI is the bullish thesis for Apple. They were getting so much [ __ ] because they're not spending money like no capex no capex from that for Dessa but in hands and hindsight I think it's really bullish actually for them because yeah you outline basically the entire thesis what what I would add is the distribution side of things. Like me I have an iPhone 12 or 13 there was never a reason for me to upgrade but once I have a really smart and intelligent iPhone that not not only great Siri but has access to all my whatever emails agenda notes >> Everything on your phone literally everything. >> Everything and and and it can order stuff for me right it it knows when I need an Uber then I come home I need food so it does like it understands what I need and it just basically goes off and and does stuff for me that's so valuable and then I would definitely upgrade the thing. What I what I found really interesting from you saying is that the authentic payments are flowing through Apple Pay in the future. That I haven't thought through yet. That could be really interesting actually for Apple because think about how many trends. Yeah. Think about how many transactions already today flow through Apple Pay but once all of us have like an AI agent on our phone so you can basically take the entire Apple customer days customer base times two for for customers paying through Apple Pay that could be really interesting. >> And I know everyone thinks that you need stable coins and all this for agents and and like look that's the future that is the cheapest way to do it so eventually we'll get there but you don't need agents to use stable coins today. If you just put your credit card inside Apple Pay an agent can go and use Apple Pay. That's not a difficult thing for them to do right? But you have everyone saying it has to be stables but it doesn't it doesn't need to be any of that [ __ ] Eventually it will so I'm still bullish on stable coins, but Apple they can easily implement that right away. >> And it already is in every merchant basically that exists. Is that something that's that's like on the radar this map like I know we've talked in the past about like a huge upgrade to Siri. Is that is there any kind of expected date on that? Have they I said that they're going to slow down iPhone versions to create a like do you do you think this would be a new iPhone that doesn't even have like number 18 or 19 or 20 or whatever it is? >> No, it just will need the new the new hardware the new chips. I think the newest ones will already good for that. They've already said. But the the Siri app cuz it's supposed to become like an actual app is supposed to be released in fall. Now here's the thing. Here's the the one thing I would say is like Apple's run up a lot, right? It's the best performing of of any hyper scalar. It's at all-time highs when nothing else at all-time highs right now. And Siri still is dumb as hell, right? So they they you know, I thought the last time when they announced the new Siri it would be the it would be the big thing when they had that partnership with Google and nothing really came of it. But again, the agentic side needs a lot of things built into it with these intents, which they've now launched and so that's going to take a little bit of time, but maybe when the Siri app launches, which is supposed to be in the fall, um that might be it. But again, who knows? And that that's the potential downside is like if that doesn't hit, if that thing doesn't slap in the fall, um then we're waiting for what? Next year? And so it's um you know, there is and you also look at the valuation the multiples of of Apple. It's much higher than all the other hyper scalers. So it's not like this is like an undervalued easy thing to buy. I bought this thing a few months ago inside Milk Road Pro. So you guys can sign up for a dollar and you can check it out of course and and you can see our our our portfolios in real time. Um but anyway, I think it's still uh they have a huge potential with AI, which everyone else is kind of sleeping on. >> Yeah, and to think that like would you say this is a what what we've just been discussing or do you think this is already priced into the stock or no? >> Like the speculative part, yes, but obviously this can be a huge huge huge massive thing if it really plays out and agents become, you know, kind of everything we do. So, like I think it's a long-term structural trend, but like I'm sure that's why it's up and nothing else is up right now in terms of hyperscalers, so makes sense. >> You know, this is actually, you know, this talk actually made me really bullish on memory cuz uh >> [laughter] >> Yeah, 100%. >> all these things, all these chips needs memory. And as as we go into agentic world, there's 250 million knowledge workers in the world. Claude has probably 30 to or 40 to 50 million monthly users. Think about when the rest of the world hops on this agentic world, we're going to need more agents, we're going to use more tokens than ever before, we're going to need massive, massive amount of compute, and all that's going to need memory. So, extremely bullish on memory. >> Yeah, it's a good point, I agree. And look who has the pricing power. Apple just raised the prices of all its devices. Why? Literally because memory has gone up in price, right? It's not like Apple gets to control that. It is memory. And this is just iPhones. So, let's say we get 1.3 billion upgrades in the next however many years. That's just iPhones. What about when every single car goes autonomous? What about when, you know, all of labor goes autonomous? There's so many structural trends happening here from agents on devices, from robotaxis, from humanoid robots to drones. All of it. And then data centers are behind all of that, powering all of that. Every single one of those trends needs memory. So, we are not in a cyclical memory story anymore. >> Yeah, that story like I can't even hear it anymore. >> [laughter] >> Like, why would you say that memory is still cyclical? If you have that like today you need to think about the entire story, right? Today we have agents that code. And you have an earnings of Samsung, and I have the numbers here that came out last week for Q2 2026 where operating profit is up 19x year over year. So, that means their profit grew twice as fast as their revenue because the memory prices rose that fast. And this is basically telling you that demand for that is infinite. And then we're moving into consuming agents, and then we're moving into robot techs, and all those things, right? So that cyclicality argument is such nonsense. >> Why did SK Hynix get wrecked? What happened? >> Or a Samsung, I can tell you why. I think the reason is because memory stocks are essentially becoming the Nvidia of the AI era, and no one has no idea how to price them. Because all the analysts are basically stuck in their old models of oh, this is a cyclical business, this is going to crash in the next 3 years, blah blah blah. Like how we just explained, this is not going to crash in the next 3 years. This is This is an ongoing thing. We're going to need more memory than ever before. Samsung is a good example of this. Samsung reported their earnings last two week and a half ago. Their operating profit went from 4.7 trillion won to 89.9 trillion won in Q2 2026. That's an 18 18 x increase with 52% operating margin. And if you look at SK Hynix, they just got listed last week. They were 7 or 8 x over subscribed, and they already ran up to 180 or 190 right now. These are the kind of numbers that make any any sector talk of the market. Yet every single quarter, the same question gets asked. Is this cyclical? What happens next quarter? Can they keep this up? This is what happens to Nvidia every single quarter. It seems like memory is getting to that point where And this is what worries me about like memory as a as a sector because it feels like every quarter they have to keep on posting the numbers, and market is just going to think is this going to continue to run up next next month or next quarter? >> Yeah, but that's completely normal. Yeah, I think that's just normal. And I mean, I guess if you look at it, SK Hynix I said got wrecked. It's up Well, at least the the one in the American stock exchange is up 22% today. Uh but uh the other part of it is just the Korean stock exchange is a bit of a mess, right? There's so much leverage over there. And so there's just like it's crazy up and then unwinds down and then back up. But uh yeah, I think I mean, this pullback, you know, 20% in memory looks real good to me. >> Yeah, it's interesting why. Also, two two more data points on the whole memory story. A, why did Elon Musk build or is building terabyte right now? It's all memory, right? It's it's he's saying he he has now like the the production of chips basically is not enough. What he's saying is that memory the the memory chips are not enough. So, that's number one and number number two, semi-analysis Dylan Patel put out a post or a video. I'm not I'm not entirely sure where where this is from, but he's saying that the demand for memory is going to increase between 20 to 40% year over year and at least until 2028. So, that implies that prices are going to keep doubling moving forward until 2028 uh like minimum. So, the operating margins of those companies are going to scale even further as those prices increase because they make more revenue just from the price side of things. So, the cost inside the company remains the same because they sell the same volume, right? It's super interesting business. >> Yeah, and also Morgan Stanley just raised their CapEx actually yesterday. They raised it for 2028 1.2 trillion and 2029 is 1.4 trillion now because they actually included SpaceX as a hyperscaler now. And they're not Yeah, and they're not even including all the all the CapEx coming from Anthropic, OpenAI. All these is going to need massive massive amounts of memory. >> Real world assets like funds, treasuries, and private credit are still running on rails built decades ago. Gated, paperwork heavy, slow to settle. Everyone's talking about tokenizing them, but far fewer can actually do it, and do it without cutting regulatory corners. Securitize can. It's the SEC regulated infrastructure bringing real world assets on chain. 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Head to milkroad.com/bitget to get started. >> Yeah, the one thing I noticed that I've been tweeting about this a lot over the last week is if you've been in this trade, or even just watching the markets for the last 2 years, analysts keep saying we're like 6 to 9 to maybe 12 months away, and then it the whole thing kind of tips over, right? And so it's like, we're going to guide up for 6 months, 9 months more in terms of hyperscalers capex, uh and then that's it. Then it's going to really slow down. And then the next quarter comes and it's, you know, they go, "Oh, it's 9 more months." And then the next quarter comes, it's 9 more months. And that's literally been happening for 2 years, which is exactly what Melvin was describing on the Melvin on the mem- memory trade. And so I think we're going to continue to see that. I don't see us slowing down. I don't know about you guys, but I really don't see us slowing down until like 2030, which like the thing is is you'd think you'd slow down then, but then that's when you have robotics taking off and you're like, "Okay, well now we need even more data centers and more memory and more inference and more, you know, compute." And so it's like, does it slow down in 2030? I don't know. The market keeps thinking this, but I just I'm starting to think it just keeps going and going. >> What would change that, Kyle? >> For one, I think the robot story is people are getting too excited about it right now. I think we're still years away from humanoids actually making any significant difference in the demand side of anything, whether it's like the parts, whether it's in compute or inference, any of that. Like, I think we're still multiple years away before we, you know, I think by 2029 we might have like maybe 100,000 humanoid robots, you know what I mean? Like, there's not going to be any real production going on until probably 2030s when it really starts to take off is my guess okay? So, you can't really include that in the numbers today. And so we're what, 4 years, 3 and 1/2 years from that? So, if the agentic economy didn't take off right now, cuz that's what we need, right? Like, I don't think we're going hockey stick curve on just like coding and just like chatting to to ChatGPT, we need agentic to take off. And that's the thing where like it has not yet, except for on the coding side. Now, I guess the only other thing is like I think it's like 20 or 30% of companies are really spending almost all the the the spend on tokens right now. So like there's also a world where that diversifies out and goes to all the other companies, right? So, we just need usage to continue. And if that stops in some way or another, then that's the thing that says, "Okay, we're going to slow down." But I just I don't see a world where that happens at all. >> And so I have I have many points actually on this. So, A, regarding Tesla, just really quick, to get a feeling for when physical AI, like robotics, humanoids really coming, AI 5, the chips of Tesla that Samsung is producing just tapped out, I think a week or two ago. That was that's coming from a LinkedIn post from a Samsung engineer that was later deleted, right? I think he was not supposed to both to post about that, but he did. Now, what tapping out means is they now they need to tape out tape out tape out. It means they have to like test it for another couple of months and until it goes into full production that will be earliest beginning mid next year. And in my view, AI 5 chips are the core driver for robot taxis, right? Just take that gives you and and then humanoids are even further out. So, this gives you a feeling of how far away those things are from full >> robot taxis will work on the on the fours. >> They will they will >> Humanoids no though. >> Agreed, but in my view, but that's just a a personal opinion. There's no no data point behind it. Elon Musk will use the AI 5 chips for the entire robot taxi fleet. I think he will use the AI 4 chips now to test like what what he's doing in the different cities, but the real scale fleet will be AI 5 chips in my view. Yeah, so that's that's that's the first point on that. Second point on when will the when will token demand potentially slow down and therefore the demand for all the infrastructure behind it. To me, the biggest risk like kind of black swan in this is when we reach ASI eventually, so super intelligence, and then the the super intelligent agents can figure out how to better design the chips, how to better design the software around the GPUs to decrease the biggest bottlenecks, to decrease the demand for memory inside the chips, for instance. Now, I agree that this is down the road and nothing for probably this definitely not this year, maybe next year, not sure, right? But this is a a risk that is not priced in at all. That I see that could slow this down, right? To answer your question Ali. >> So, similar to the um I guess what we've discussed in recent weeks as but I mean it's a similar argument, it's not the same thing that basically AI getting better and smarter would reduce the need for compute. And what you're saying, Vincent, is a similar argument that over time AI would create a far more efficient way of manufacturing everything that it needs, which would then slow down the need for all the capex that's being spent, right? >> No, because the more efficient it gets, the more we're going to use it, the more use cases unlock, the more compute we need. That's not going away. >> to a certain degree. >> Yeah, I was going to say the same. >> I fully agree on that, right? It's the same argument that Kevin Baker makes now around the open source models. And the cheaper the token tokens get, the more it will be adopted, right? I fully agree. The question is, can the redesign of of of the bottlenecks and and and all the imports like memory be so big that it actually offsets the higher demand? That's that's the question there, right? >> But also to get to like AGI and that to the point you're talking about, we need a lot more compute even to get to that point. You know what I mean? Like we're nowhere near there yet. So, I think there's still a lot to go. And then there's also the demand >> it's a black swan, right? >> Yeah, yeah. We're also like and I think you brought this up a long time ago, Vincent. There's also the demand from governments and and, you know, nations that need to build up their own AIs, um which is happening. You talked about this, I think Melvin and I made fun of you cuz we said European countries will never do this. Um but I'm actually starting to become a believer that I think they'll at least try, which is what you said as well. Um because I think there's, you know, so there's more demand to come from that, right? Cuz a lot of members are starting. So, >> We've seen news around that. Japan, South Korea, UAE, of course, but also Europe. Mistral, our Yes, it's a small lab, Melvin, I know that. It's not comparable to comparable to the US peers, but still they're raising couple of billions. Um and the French government is supporting them as well. And it's bullish for us investors, right? Because in the end it tells you more demand for AI infrastructure. If whether it will succeed or not. >> You know who's the biggest AI infrastructure builder in Europe? Any guesses? >> Nvidia. Nvidia. >> Nvidia. Yes, sir. >> [laughter] >> What Wales was the news now right now? >> Yeah, the Wales and they just hired two more people in India. So, I think there's a data center probably coming there soon, too. So, >> And yet it's down 8% today. >> [sighs] >> Yes, sir. >> Kyle, one point on your on your argument saying that we do not see a gigantic um demand beyond uh coding. Yes, I agree. But if you look at semi-analysis, the company itself, right? They went from a spending budget from a couple of hundred thousands, I think to an 11 million dollar run rate for this year. So, they're spending 11 million on APIs in the end, right? And and I think to me that is showing you where we're moving to. Once companies start to realize how to actually adopt AI in a in a in in a way that's valuable, then there is no limits. There's no limits. >> I agree. The problem is we're not at that point. Most companies don't know how to do it at a good ROI. And plus tokens are still too expensive. So, there just might be this window. This is my kind of black It's not a black swan, but this would be my answer to LG of like, what would stop this train? It's like, if that window doesn't close, right? Like if if if we don't figure out that out, and we don't get that ROI, companies are going like, "Fuck, I got to pull back here, you know?" I don't think that's going to happen cuz I think we will figure it out. Um but there's just a chance that maybe that does happen. You know, that's It's It's what I talk about risk, that's what it be. >> I mean, there many like Coinbase, Robinhood, also Uber this week. They all are showing already in their in their earnings reports. If you look at the transcripts or the recent posts of the Uber, I think COO it was. They went like the first 6 months of this year, they went through a testing phase, right? They were just telling their people, "Hey, go spend and we'll figure it out." Then we reached the top where they're like, "Okay, this is this is way too expensive for us." And now they're moving into the efficiency side of figuring out approaches of how that actually works. And I think I agree, this will take a couple of months, maybe years, but this will go like this process companies will go through. And and this will just increase the demand for for agents moving forward, same sort of thing, right? We have the same story. >> Yeah, 100%. Keep in mind that majority of businesses in America are small mom-and-pop shops or like smaller companies with like 20 employees, not which have not tapped into the AI at all, you know, so there's a huge huge demand that'll >> And for them it's much easier than a big corporation. >> Exactly. >> People keep trying to compare this to the dot-com bust and the the thing they always miss and actually LG you had I forget who it was on the podcast uh a couple days ago and he talked about this where there was that gap in between like creating the infra and then actually using it because you had to go and like buy a computer, which no one had at the time, then you had to go and get internet set up, which means someone had to come out to your house and install it and then like plug it into your phone so you couldn't use your phone when you're on the internet, then you could go and use the internet, right? So like there was a serious gap of many years for people to get on boarded that doesn't exist in AI, right? Especially if Apple can figure that out and I just go, "Hey Siri, do whatever." And it just does it. There's zero friction, you know? Um so it's it's there's we it's not a dot-com bust. That's not that doesn't exist here. >> It was uh it was Ben Bajarin from Creative Strategies who's been an advisor to all these companies for like 30, 40 years. So that guy that guy knows his stuff and I will say even listening to you guys talk, I do agree on the bullish stance for Apple because that dot-com bust what you're describing called too is also it's like there were no devices that were easy to use and easily distributable at the time for people to get access to all this stuff, right? That was another huge problem is like Blackberries came out, but man, that was that was for like sending emails. It wasn't until iPhone, right? So, even what you're even everything you guys are describing and you're talking about mom and pop shops and all that kind of stuff. It's like it's probably going to come in the same format of some next level iPhone that can just bring all that together for people. >> Why do you think Meta is going so hard in the glasses and Open AI is going to build whatever they're trying to build? >> They want to own the device, right? And it's hard to make people use a different device, which is why Apple is kind of sitting there going, you know, at any point Apple can just turn this thing on and they're going to just change consumer agentic for everybody if they do it. It's a lot harder to get a new device in everyone's hands, which is what Meta is trying to do cuz that's their only option and what Open AI is trying to do cuz that's their only option. So, >> Do you think Vision [clears throat] Pro was too early then, Kyle? >> Too expensive. >> Too expensive or too early? >> Too expensive and they didn't have enough use cases in it to just yeah. >> It wasn't subtle enough. That's what iPhone was cuz it's it's subtle. It's right it's you just put it in your pocket and it's gone. This you have to wear it and you're not going to wear it like an idiot, right? So, >> you look stupid. >> No, but even Meta, that's what works is that they're Ray-Bans. They're they're black. You can't they're they're subtle and you're you know, you're you're creepily recording people. So, anyways, go ahead, Kyle. What were you going to say? >> Yeah, what do you guys think center value right now? What are you guys buying? >> Nvidia. [snorts] >> [laughter] >> Of course he's buying Nvidia. >> Yeah, there's only one answer. What do you think, Melvin? What's Melvin going to say, man? All his memory stocks he's been adding. >> So, I do have one get your guys' opinion on something that happened this morning. There was a bit of a sell-off, but it has largely recovered by now cuz I think the market kind of realized it's kind of dumb, but funny enough Jim Cramer literally called this. He said to call or buy IBM yesterday and this morning it crashed 25%. It's the [laughter] worst single-day decline since the dot-com bubble. And the and and cuz they actually missed their revenue by 660 million. Software growth was basically flat. Stock is down, you know, like I said, 25%. Um the scariest part wasn't the numbers, but what what what rather the their CEO said to the investors. Um he basically said in the last few weeks of June, clients yanked out their capex away from software and threw it at servers, storage, memory trying to get ahead of price hikes before the supply even got works. So, >> That's what he literally said? >> Yeah, that's what I was paraphrasing, but yes, that's what he said. So, what is this is this going to happen? Is this like the norm that's going to happen going forward? Will the software spending shift to capex because because of all these bottlenecks? Cuz I don't see this bottlenecks not, you know, easing anytime soon. So, is this just an IBM problem or are we going to start to see that in the earnings this year? >> I have a view on this. I like one specific software SaaS layer really much, and that's kind of the orchestration layer of models. And I think that's Palantir to me, right? There was a lot of news around Apple suing OpenAI for for basically stealing the data. Karp came out two weeks slashing around the models, right? And I think the idea is in the future, companies will want to use various models. And you need two things for that. A, as a company, you want no matter which model you're using, you always want to have it the right amount of context, memory, etc., right? So, it it What the others AI or agents were working on, this model right now needs to know as well, right? And that's kind of the orchestration layer behind it. And also, it's it's a safety and trust topic. An orchestration layer needs to make sure that no matter which AI is in charge or which model the company's currently using, it has only access to the data it needs for a certain task, right? And that to me is a part of the the SaaS kind of layer, again Palantir, that I really like moving forward. The others I don't have a strong opinion on. >> So, I was just looking and someone who works a reporter here, she said she spoke with um the IBM CEO and the details of this, a few large capex deals paused near the end of the quarter, it's not widespread. It's just mainframe and the software associated with it. Mythos is making people pause and say, "Wait, how much do I need to spend on cybersecurity?" They're pausing on new deals until they know what we don't see our entire software being disrupted by AI at all. So, it was like a very specific use case that the market kind of thought it was all software and that's why I think software's now been repriced back to where it was cuz everyone realized, "Oh, that's actually not the case." Thing to understand is, guys, with AI, the efficiencies that you're getting, we are hiring more people. Businesses are making more money. >> Yes. >> People are not getting unemployed. Unemployment is not going up like crazy by any means. Companies are getting more successful, meaning they're hiring more people and now they have to deal with not only managing people, but also they're adding in agents. So, you've got to hire and then you've got to manage, right, and provide data for and support for and governance for and and organization for agents and humans now. That's even harder than when it was just humans, which means you need even more software in your company to manage what's going on. Now, of course, there are some tools and software that just simply was never needed, right? Or just like doesn't make sense. But the the SaaS products that are enabling that and helping that like Palantir, like ServiceNow, in my case, I think even like Salesforce, um because where do you do a lot of things with your agents inside Slack if you're a big company? One of our companies, Impact 3, all of our agents live inside Slack and they basically project manage everything we do. Um Slack is the way we do that. We use a database, which is Salesforce. Like, you still need databases, you still need software in different areas, and you need it even more now that you have agents. So, I don't think SaaS is dead by any means. There are some, don't get me wrong, there are some. There are old economy stuff that's dying off without a doubt. But, you just got to find the right ones. >> How do you guys feel about last question? How do you guys feel about the news that came out last week announcing Starbucks? They're potentially moving off of IBM and Microsoft to build their own custom in-house. And Starbucks spends over 400 million dollars a year on software. Do you think that they're going to try and fail? Or do you do you possibly think they will do it and this is like the same that's going to happen? >> Starbucks spent like hundreds of millions of dollars trying to move their points rewards program onto a blockchain two three years ago, and they just shut it off one day cuz they realized it was stupid and it was a waste of money and a waste of their their >> Cuz blockchain is stupid? Is that why? >> [laughter] >> No. But, because it didn't make sense for that. Like, they it was a it was a waste. They they jump on things, they do research, which is great. That's what they're doing here. They're trying to do research, can they get AI to rebuild those things? Maybe they succeed, probably not in my opinion. But, we'll see. I don't know. I'm sure they'll find some things they can replace. But, they won't replace all software. I bet you what ends up happening is they end up using more software as a result of this to manage whatever the things are that they're going to build, right? So, it's just it's not a widespread we don't use software anymore. It's some things are no longer needed. And a lot of software is actually becoming headless, right? And so, it ends up just being data, and it's a way to organize or set privacy or do cybersecurity or govern. And but, you don't actually use the like you know, the the the interface of that software anymore, right? So, it's changing. You use Claude or you use your own agent or whatever, wherever you use that, and then it taps into those software. So, it's just that that industry is evolving, but it's not going away. And so, there is a bunch of crap out there that exists in SAS that definitely is going to go to zero but there's a bunch that's still useful here. But I Starbucks is not a tell to me by any means. >> Well, it depends. I I just going to give a counter Melbourne's point about them them starting a lot of stuff. Starbucks is one of the first ones to create an iOS app, right? And they were one of the first ones to have payments in that app. That was in 2011 that they had payments in their app that you could buy a coffee in the app and go and pick it up. So they were way ahead of the curve in you know, so they're going to try and do first stuff. >> a lot of research. >> And increase the the commerce customer experience. That's always going to be that you know, make it easier for people to buy more coffee and more you know, coffees with so much sugar. >> have a lot of money to spend on research and development on new technologies which is what they do. So that's all they're doing here. It's not a they've replaced IBM, right? It's just Of course they're going to spend money to try to use any technology. That's great. See if they succeed. >> As long as they're not bringing back those iced strawberry Frappuccinos with cream on top I'm not not going to [laughter] talk about them. >> Do you have a problem with them? Like you have an addiction? Is that what you mean? And you can't you can't see them. >> was when I was 15, yes. But then all of a sudden they took Maybe maybe I had too many of them and like they ran out of stock. I don't not sure what happened to them. >> But you know what happens if Starbucks succeeds? Is now they need to run their own data center. So now they contract him with you know, Nibias or or they run it themselves. I don't know, right? But they're going to need their own compute somewhere if they want to run this. And so again, which is great because that diversifies the AI infra trade, right? You have different customers for I don't know, Nvidia or for Nibias or whoever. >> I I disagree here Kyle because I'm not sure what what would be the real value unlock for Starbucks to build their own data center. For Eli Lilly it makes total sense, right? But it the >> If they end up so it depends on what they build here. Like if they're going to build their whole new own SAS, they're going to need servers. They're going to need compute and they have a jet running everywhere for I don't know all their locations doing something. I've no idea what their plan is with it all. But like if it ends up being something that is is huge, um then they're going to need their own compute. >> All I'm going to say about Starbucks is if you drink Starbucks as a grown ass man, you need to reevaluate your life. >> Exactly. >> Exactly. [laughter] That's what I'm saying. >> Uh Melvin becoming public enemy number one to our listeners, man. You don't know, man. They're in the drive-thru They're in the drive-thru right now and they were about to tell the barista about this podcast and now >> They turn it off. >> Are you a Do you remember >> Do you remember when >> In 2021, the guys that were like super like I love Bitcoin and nothing but Bitcoin, they were like you got to eat your steak, you know, no soy. [laughter] That's That's Melvin as a memory boy, eh? He's not like a Bitcoin boy. He's a memory boy. It's like buy your memory, own your memory. >> [laughter] >> They got their weird their weird cult of things you have to do, you know. Yeah. >> So Melvin one final point on this whole SaaS topic. I think there two type of SaaS companies. One that is building software only for human beings and then there are others that are building for agents and that actually agents >> connection of the two. Or the connection of the two, yeah. >> And yeah, yeah. That That would be the best. So that you have a software that can be used by both humans and AI agents. And I think that's the key to for a software company to survive and actually really thrive in that world. >> Yeah, I agree. >> And for that you need good founders. Pick companies that have a >> really good founders. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That's That's my bet on Salesforce. Beauty. All right, guys. Let's wrap this up. Uh what are you watching over the next 7 days? What moves are you thinking about? Melvin, let's start with you, our our memory boy. >> Yeah, I'm watching my Nebius and Corve. I hopefully my bags will you know run up because of that. Um but yeah, I'm watching more of the bottlenecks as well. I think there's going to be huge huge bottlenecks that'll likely emerge in the next couple weeks, couple months. So, I'm watching for that as well. >> Vincent, how about you? >> I have two things that I'm looking at. A, what I was saying in the beginning of this pod, the mid-cycle slowdown in the infrastructure trade provides great opportunities. Looking at memory, looking at power semis, chemicals, great opportunity stocks down between 25 and 35% is really attractive to buy, right? And then, the adoption side of things. Um and here I'm focusing more and more on the whole digital asset side of things. Also, because Got Bassin came out, I think 2 weeks ago saying that in an AI world, we need stable coins, we need digital assets, and us, the US, the White House will back it. That's really bullish to me. And that's kind of where my focus is. >> Kyle? >> Yeah, you know what's interesting is I'm eyeing up more of of what Melvin's talking about because they literally are pulled back so much, and the market's just starting to write them off for absolutely no reason. Makes no sense. And so, I mean, it looks like um Micron is kind of putting this little double bottom here. And so, you know, it's if it can go up here, I don't see why Nvidea's isn't forming the exact same thing right now. I wish I was sharing my screen. Like it if it doesn't go lower than um uh 192, uh then it's basically putting in a higher low. Uh and again, I see no reason why like the fundamentals of Nvidea's, as Melvin's talked about at nauseam, have continued to improve, but people just get scared over random things. Um and so, I honestly I'm thinking about uh either adding to to the memory trade or or buying one of these Neo clouds right now. >> Wow. I mean, yeah, those pullbacks are natural on those things. So, uh especially after running up so much. You know [snorts] >> I mean, Coreweave is down like 40-something percent, and Nvidea's is down 36%. You know, in like a matter of a couple weeks. >> Yeah. >> So. >> It seems pretty >> attractive. Well, we'll keep tracking it here on the show. Uh and our and on our individual pods with you guys. Gentlemen, thank you for another great show. Um I think we created a bit of a a memory cult around Melbourne today. Uh and hopefully some new fans for Vincent's New Found Voice. So, appreciate you guys. [laughter] >> [gasps] >> And uh we'll see you guys next week. >> [music] >> Want to stay ahead of the biggest technological shift in history? Subscribe now to get insights straight from the sharpest minds in tech and finance. >> [music] >> Quickly, you'll note this show is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. Investing always carries risk. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Thanks for tuning in. See you [music] in the next one.