Tom Lee just dropped a BOMBSHELL.. (He Might Be Wrong)
- Video return
- +4.07%
- Calls
- 34
- Buy / Sell
- 34 0
- Published
Recommendations
Entry is the asset's closing price on the publication date. Current is the last close on record.
-
Entry $495.76 18 Jul 2026Current $482.61 07 Aug 2026Result −$13.15
I like AMD, you know, I actually like AMD
Context Like, I like AMD, you know, I actually like AMD.
-
Entry $95.04 18 Jul 2026Current $99.81 06 Aug 2026Result +$4.77
Is Intel likely to do well over time? Yes.
-
Entry $21.68 18 Jul 2026Current $25.56 06 Aug 2026Result +$3.88
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $78.97 18 Jul 2026Current $88.94 07 Aug 2026Result +$9.97
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $12.15 18 Jul 2026Current $14.00 06 Aug 2026Result +$1.85
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $103.24 18 Jul 2026Current $125.40 07 Aug 2026Result +$22.16
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $224.26 18 Jul 2026Current $202.43 06 Aug 2026Result −$21.83
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $312.33 18 Jul 2026Current $370.00 06 Aug 2026Result +$57.67
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $268.90 18 Jul 2026Current $318.00 06 Aug 2026Result +$49.10
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $258.69 18 Jul 2026Current $235.14 07 Aug 2026Result −$23.55
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $13.22 18 Jul 2026Current $18.11 06 Aug 2026Result +$4.89
software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze
-
Entry $286.96 18 Jul 2026Current $320.03 07 Aug 2026Result +$33.07
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $19.46 18 Jul 2026Current $19.37 06 Aug 2026Result −$0.09
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $28.99 18 Jul 2026Current $24.82 07 Aug 2026Result −$4.17
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $8.54 18 Jul 2026Current $10.88 06 Aug 2026Result +$2.34
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $73.69 18 Jul 2026Current $97.18 07 Aug 2026Result +$23.49
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $7.08 18 Jul 2026Current $5.94 06 Aug 2026Result −$1.15
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $145.98 18 Jul 2026Current $152.49 05 Aug 2026Result +$6.51
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $321.32 18 Jul 2026Current $321.98 06 Aug 2026Result +$0.66
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $43.76 18 Jul 2026Current $42.08 07 Aug 2026Result −$1.68
Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike
-
Entry $45.36 18 Jul 2026Current $46.11 06 Aug 2026Result +$0.75
LVS, Uber, Uber, you got to add Uber to this as well if you wanted something
-
Entry $72.46 18 Jul 2026Current $70.47 06 Aug 2026Result −$1.99
LVS, Uber, Uber, you got to add Uber to this as well if you wanted something
-
Entry $87.51 18 Jul 2026Current $87.60 06 Aug 2026Result +$0.09
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $99.96 18 Jul 2026Current $93.74 07 Aug 2026Result −$6.22
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $17.28 18 Jul 2026Current $18.39 07 Aug 2026Result +$1.11
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $59.63 18 Jul 2026Current $50.51 06 Aug 2026Result −$9.12
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $67.18 18 Jul 2026Current $51.86 06 Aug 2026Result −$15.32
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $29.10 18 Jul 2026Current $26.89 07 Aug 2026Result −$2.21
Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those.
-
Entry $461.85 18 Jul 2026Current $444.47 07 Aug 2026Result −$17.38
Robotics, Tesla, Rockwell Automation Symbotic Zebra Technologies, you know, those look pretty good to me.
-
Entry $41.25 18 Jul 2026Current $40.40 07 Aug 2026Result −$0.85
Robotics, Tesla, Rockwell Automation Symbotic Zebra Technologies, you know, those look pretty good to me.
-
Entry $7.72 18 Jul 2026Current $9.84 07 Aug 2026Result +$2.12
Uu leu new scale power CCJ but these are longterm long-term ideas
-
Entry $85.62 18 Jul 2026Current $93.62 06 Aug 2026Result +$8.00
Uu leu new scale power CCJ but these are longterm long-term ideas
-
Entry $171.78 18 Jul 2026Current $160.39 06 Aug 2026Result −$11.39
Qualcomm Marll cors ke some of your data centers I think also can be interesting on a selloff buying them on the dip.
-
Entry $188.68 18 Jul 2026Current $210.54 06 Aug 2026Result +$21.86
Qualcomm Marll cors ke some of your data centers I think also can be interesting on a selloff buying them on the dip.
Full Transcript
Tom Lee on Friday dropped a bombshell for investors. He says that you should be buying the dip in AI stocks, but to expect this rolling correction to continue. In this video, I will share with you what Tom Lee said about the markets on Friday. I will also share with you my opinions on this. I think I think we have a real problem in this market and I think the real problem is there is such a heavy confirmation bias especially around AI stocks that a lot of people can't see when the tide is shifting. So in this video I'm going to provide you a neutral perspective. I am not short these stocks. I am not long these stocks. I neither hate nor love these stocks. So, I'm going to share with you my thoughts around the AI trade, potentially some better opportunities out there, because yes, believe it or not, there are better opportunities out there. We will talk about those in today's episode. Like, I am seeing this confirmation biased everywhere. Everyone's saying just go out, buy the dip. And while yes, that works most of the time, there are some real things that are shifting and changing within the AI trade that nobody's talking about. So before we get into those things, take a listen to what Tom Lee said on Friday. >> Tom Lee, the head of research over at Funstrap Global Advisors, the chip trade, we've been calling it the epicenter, the tail wagging the dog of the markets, so to speak, for quite some time. But we did see a nice little runup in the midday session for many of these volatile memory stock names. How exactly do investors and traders reconcile the volatility versus what we could see as terms of long-term price appreciation for these particular types of stocks? >> Um yeah, Tom, I know it's been a a very volatile week if if people have been long those names the last couple of weeks. It's been a rough ride but uh these companies are at the center of one of the most important strategic initiatives for the US you know which is AI and AI infrastructure and that runway has years ahead um and they're going to report next week. So I think that this pullbacks how leveraged funds definitely create more volatility. it is always uh creating an opportunity for the long-term investor because if someone missed uh the DRAM trade or the semi-rade and and now they can buy it or even Korean they can buy it 20% cheaper you know that's the entry point but yeah it's very difficult I mean my institutional clients many of them are having very difficult years because shifts in the themes or the winds or even visibility cause instant reaction and and and it's it's something people aren't accustomed to >> is leverage factor in your mind. Forget about the world of leveraged ETFs, which is a a different conversation that we can have in addition to what was going on right now, but from a margin debt standpoint, from a from a people understanding whether or not they should be long short-term something or short short-term something with push button liquidity as you point out, is that something that we should be fearful of? Has it reached a point where we could see further market structure deterioration the likes of which we have not seen up to this point? >> Uh 100%. Margin debt today is now up 54% year-over-year. Um which is the sixth highest rise in like 60 years when you look at monthly data. And the other five times similarly the market consolidated over the next six months five to six times because when you have when when that cohort of traders is tapped out they borrowed money the market is vulnerable to a draw down which is what happened in Curry right in Curry I believe this the data is 1.2 million brokerage accounts had a margin call and and that may be as much as 10% of actual adult brokerage accounts. I mean some massive massive correction follows. So could that happen in the US? Yeah. So that's why a rolling correction that what we're seeing now is super healthy. >> So is this a buying opportunity? Maybe. But you have to put it into a time frame. Is this a great buying opportunity for the next 12 months? I don't personally think so. Maybe it ends up being a great buying opportunity in the next, you know, 12 months. But not not all AI stocks are created equal, right? We know that memory companies, they've really beaten earnings because they're they're raising prices. Supply is only growing growing like 30% year-over-year for memory, you know, actual physical memory drives. So eventually that that pricing power is going to go away. So I think out of all the AI stocks, the memory stocks are ones where you know they could fall another 50% and just kind of stay there for years. Like the pricing power will go away. You want to be very careful with memory companies. But what about semiconductors? Like I like AMD, you know, I actually like AMD. I I don't love it at the price it's at right now. But is AMD going to do well over time? Is Intel likely to do well over time? Yes. Here's the problem, though. Everyone was bullish on the same group of stocks in the last four months. They've doubled or tripled in some cases. And you're seeing a very dangerous setup for the capex trade. Simply put, hyperscalers can only spend as much money as Wall Street doesn't punish the stock. What does that mean? That means hyperscalers, Meta can't spend even if even if Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft wanted to spend a trillion dollars next year by themselves, they couldn't do it. Why? Because they would need to raise a lot of debt. They would have to sell a lot of stock. Their stock would fall 90%. They couldn't do it if they wanted to. And I think the real question is what is the number that hyperscalers can spend without their stocks getting punished for it? Because, you know, a lot of people sit here and say, why would Microsoft care if their stock falls 60%, they're trying to win in AI? I get it. I get the argument. But when you actually understand what happens to a stock when it's down 50 60%. It becomes very difficult to raise capital. Nobody wants to lend money to a company in which their stock is down 50 plus%. Microsoft's already down like 30%. The other Mag 7's already down well over 10%. At one point they were down almost 20%. If they come out and raise capex again, their stocks are going to sell off again and then the next quarter they're going to sell off again. It starts the timer towards the end of the capex trade. Now, this is where it gets difficult and a lot of people don't understand this. Yes, capex will continue to grow, but AI stocks are priced for more. They're priced for more spending than we're actually going to get. And this is why you have seen AI stocks sell off recently because people are saying look maybe capex doesn't go to 1.2 2 trillion next year, maybe it's at 900 billion next year. And that is a slowdown in the pace of capex increases. And that's not good for AI stocks in the near term. And you have seen a sharp reversal in momentum. So momentum, which are semiconductors, AI companies, um they're down, I mean this was posted on July 15th, so now they're down even more. But Morgan Stanley's tech momentum index, its 17-day rate of change is down 35%. The worst ever recorded through its 27-year history. So, I think if you like AI stocks, if you're buying the dip in AI stocks, you have to be hyperfocused right now on what happens to capex earnings next week from Google and in the following week from Microsoft and Meta and the whole gang of hyperscalers. That's number one. They need to raise capex more than expected, which probably happens because they all have existing data centers that are probably running over budget to build, right? They're not going to stop those projects. But the question really is what is the indication for capex going ahead? You really need hyperscalers to come out and say, "Yep, we're spending and we're going to continue to double down." If that happens, AI stocks are going to do well. >> Near-term 7's going to sell off. That's the governor, right? Because it it's going to be impossible to sell enough debt next year for hyperscalers if their stocks are down 50 60%. That is what is happening. And I have not seen a single person on CNBC actually talk about this. The governor is not like the governor per se, right? Hopefully we all know what that means. like the the the limiting factor of capex is not necessarily that the management teams of mag 7 that they don't want to continue to spend like they're drunk. They probably do, right? They want to continue to spend, continue to raise debt, but it becomes harder and harder to do so if their stocks get punished for it. You need Mag 7 to be rewarded for spending more. And I don't I don't think we're going back into that environment where if Amazon comes out and says, "Yep, we're going to spend $50 billion more than we thought this year," I don't think Amazon's going to go up on that. I think it's going to fall like a rock. So, if it falls like a rock, the the stopwatch has started towards the capex trade ending. And again, the capex trade is not going to end. It's not going to zero. It's not even going to fall. it's going to dramatically slow down versus expectations and that is the risk right now and I do believe that is why AI stocks are selling off is because you know potentially somebody knows something somebody on Wall Street knows that capex is going to slow down but beyond that I think it's pretty obvious that that is the direction that we're heading into heading in and if you're buying a stock like an AI stock you need that capex to continue to be out of control and I I I think it's becoming very hard to spend in an outofcontrol fashion when Mag 7 has begun to react negatively to spending money. Like you can see here from Bank of America, this is hyperscalers in light blue. This is their free cash flow. It's going to be negative like 50 plus billion dollars this year. If we go from 700 billion in capex this year to 1.2 2 trillion in capex next year, which is kind of where people are expecting it to be. You're going to have to raise $400 billion of capital in the credit markets issuing stock. If MAG 7 continues to get sold off for spending more, they're going to be down 60 70% from highs next year. And uh you know, inevitably the capex trade will end. So AI stocks are not selling off because they're going to have bad earnings in the short term. They're selling off because Wall Street's saying, "Yeah, if hyperscalers get punished for spending, we're not going to be spending like this three years from now, two years from now." That's why AI stocks are selling off. And I think that's where the confirmation bias comes in. And it's so dangerous right now because I can look at this from a neutral perspective. You know, I am a uber bull on AI in general, right? I think it's going to change the world. I think it's going to lengthen life expecties. You know, your kids might live till they're 150 years old, a healthy 150 years old. Like, how can you not be bullish on that? But from an investing perspective, it's it's not it's not an attractive opportunity right now in AI stocks. and Wall Street, they have this extreme confirmation bias without laying any new arguments out there, right? They're all saying the same thing. They're all saying we're in the second or fourth inning of the, you know, AI trade and it's it's going capex is going to continue, but nobody actually is talking about why AI stocks are falling in the first place like what I have done in this video. So, of course, if you're buying these AI stocks for the next 10 years, are you going to beat the S&P? I I believe so, right? I you're probably going to beat the S&P in in that case. If if you're looking for the next 5 to 10x opportunity, you're not going to find it in AI stocks. You're not early to this trade. You never want to buy FOMO. And two weeks ago, there was FOMO in AI stocks. Have we seen enough selling to wash that out? Not based on the sentiment I'm hearing from or seeing from institutional investors or hearing in in DMs from institutional investors and hedge funds. There is still a heavy bullish confirmation biased out there. If you're looking for the next, you know, 5 10x winner, it's it's within the application layer of AI. It is the layer that benefits from mass enterprise adoption of AI. I know not not a lot of people are going to like this but software Zeta, Rubric, UiPath, Service Now Zcaler HubSpot MongoDB Snowflake, Data Dog, Back Blaze, right? These are companies that benefit as AI becomes more and more adopted by enterprises, which mass enterprise AI adoption. That'll start and begin next year, but it really ramps in 2028, 2029, and 2030. Between 2028 and 2030, you're going to see enterprises go from like 30% of them using AI to 80% of them using AI in a big way. like hundreds of tasks, thousands of tasks, millions of actions performed per day at each, you know, company, right? That's when the application layer is really going to win. You want to position for this early. So, Wall Street's going to start figure figuring this out by the end of this year, by 2027. And I I think, you know, software is going to have a fair bit of FOMO by the end of this year and 2027. I also think other areas playing on a stronger consumer as oil comes down when the war with Iran ends and the Fed doesn't hike rates and maybe real estate picks up. Cyclicals are going to be really good. Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celsius, Blooming Brands, ELF, Sweet Green, Airbnb, Hilton, Tesla, Nike, it's not my favorite. They're missing the ball on consumer trends, but if you wanted to own Nike, that makes sense. LVS, Uber, Uber, you got to add Uber to this as well if you wanted something, you know, it's not gonna 5x anytime soon, but is it high quality? Absolutely. Then financials, WS Fargo, Robin Hood, Sofi, Fizzer, Root, Lemonade, Oscar, can't go wrong with those. Robotics, Tesla, Rockwell Automation Symbotic Zebra Technologies, you know, those look pretty good to me. Energy is interesting. I think nuclear will do well long term. Um, but we're going to run into an energy problem especially around the midterms and politics and you know people they don't like when their electricity bills go up. So the only quick way to solve that is like gas generators like a bloom energy type of deal or um like solar right and Trump politics solar is not pretty. I think energy will do well. Uu leu new scale power CCJ but these are longterm long-term ideas and then for AI stocks Qualcomm Marll cors ke some of your data centers I think also can be interesting on a selloff buying them on the dip. But again, just my thoughts on this. Google earnings are going to be critical for next week and then the week after you're going to have your Amazons, your Metas, your, you know, Microsofts and that'll give you a bigger picture idea of what capex looks like. I think capex numbers are going to be better than, you know, good, maybe not impressive from the hyperscalers this quarter, but not enough to cause AI stocks to crash. It's going to be the commentary around future capex that's going to move hyperscalers that will move the AI trade kind of kind of like the the earnings numbers right from Nvidia for an example. Nvidia doesn't move based on the numbers they report. They move based on the guidance that they issue for the next quarter or for the for the full year. And same is going to be true for Mac 7 around capex. So let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. If you guys want to come get involved with us in the trading community, come uh trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next
Comments 0
Sign in to join the discussion.
Sign inNo comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!