Context
I have this rule with my core holdings uh my blue chip core holding stocks whenever they drop down 20 25% from highs as long as fundamentals are intact as long as everything's looking good um I just add a little more I DCA I buy some more
Context
I mean, it is a descending triangle here. Keep that in mind. Um, that is a bearish pattern, but we're not under it yet. So, I'm going to set my alert at uh let's say 340. I guess that would be a good spot. Let's do that. 340. And let's see here, guys.
If you want to just buy a little bit, you can always do that. Dollar cost average.
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you could always just dollar cost average if you want to own the stock and you don't know where the bottom is. You you don't want to buy here because you think it might go lower. Uh but you know, oh, it might go higher. If you want to just buy a little bit, you can always do that. Dollar cost average. That's what it's all about, man.
Full Transcript
How's it going, guys? It's your boy Stace here. Hope you all had a great weekend and you're ready for this week in the market. Let me tell you, man, it's going to be a big week. A lot of earnings coming up. Google, Tesla, Intel, a bunch of big companies. And well, things have been escalating over the weekend in the Middle East. Oil's moving up and believe it or not, the futures are moving up as well. We have a lot to break down, guys. Earnings coming up. overall where my head's at the futures. We'll talk oil very quickly. So, let's dive into it. Make sure you all hit the like button, subscribe, join the Patreon, do all that good stuff. That's linked down below if you guys want to be a part of the private Discord and see my portfolio updates and more. All that's on Patreon. So, let's talk about what's going on right now. And we're not going to get too much into the geopolitical stuff. Quite frankly, guys, there are other channels out there that are way more thorough, better um you know, at explaining that stuff than I am. But the gist of it is, look, it is escalating in the Middle East. There's more casualties. The straight, I'm pretty sure, is shut down again. Uh the blockades back on, right? A lot of a lot of stuff's going on. And again, we're not going to get too much into it, but the point is things are escalating. Um you know, theou's out the window. forget about it at this point. And again, believe it or not, stocks are actually gapping up in the futures market right now. Not too crazy. Uh but the NASDAQ is up around 6%. You guys see this nice um gap up on the E- mini NASDAQ 100 futures. S&P futures, let's see, they're up around a quarter percent, not as much. Uh but that didn't get hit as much either. So, we're seeing a bigger snapback in the na uh in the NASDAQ uh because it got hit way more, right, guys? Does that make sense? That should make sense. And Bitcoin's moving up here. Oil, obviously crude, uh WTI crude and Brent, they're both up. WTI is at uh let's see, 83 a barrel, but obviously Brent's more important. That's over 90 again, man. So, we're back over 90 a barrel on Brent crude oil after getting down to what 72 or four. Where did we get down to on this thing? Um, yeah, about $70, man. And now we're just completely breaking out again. Um, so keep your eyes on energy stocks. On a side note, Exxon, you know, uh, Chevron, XLE, which is an ETF, uh, keep your eyes on all these energy stocks. They're actually moving here overnight. Um, so we're not going to break too many down today, but energy stocks as oil is moving makes sense. And defense stocks, which I made a a short form video on that. I'm not sure if you guys saw it. It's on uh, you know, Tik Tok, all across the board. Uh, make sure you all go follow me on Tik Tok, by the way. Instagram, Facebook, all those are linked down below. I appreciate you all. So, energy stocks, defense stocks, no doubt should be on the top of the radar this week. And of course, as the cues are rebounding and we have big tech earnings coming up, we should be watching for um a potential relief rally in certain memory names, AI stocks, tech stocks that have gotten hit. So, the cues right now are at the bottom of this channel, which we have talked about a couple of times throughout the last couple of videos. uh we're trading down here which each time it seems like the cues get down to 690 700 towards you know this support from early mid June to you know the bottom of this channel each time it happens we get a nice rally and it looks like we're trying to do that again here and earnings are the major catalyst it looks like the market listen we've talked about this before the market is immune almost to what's going on in the Middle East it's numb to Right. We get these headlines. All right. Who cares? Almost is what the market's saying. Um that's why we're gapping up. It's It's like, okay, it's like, all right, what? We've been dealing with this for weeks, months at this point. But if this was 3 months ago, it it would be a lot different. But hey, if it gets even worse, that doesn't mean the market can't go down more. Uh but just saying overall, the market is a little immune to these headlines with um what's going on over there. So, don't be surprised if we actually get a little rally. We'll see. Earnings are coming up. And speaking of earnings, Alphabet, Google, go guys, let's pull it up. This stock is trading, by the way, right at a critical support at about 350 right now. 345. That was the all-time high back in February. We obviously kind of consolidated there in the end of April, then we broke out. So, this is a big spot for the stock to hold. Um, if it breaks through, the uh the reality is low 300s could be coming uh for Alphabet. And look, I'd probably buy more at that point. um as that would be in my you know in my rule per se where I h I have this rule with my core holdings uh my blue chip core holding stocks whenever they drop down 20 25% from highs as long as fundamentals are intact as long as everything's looking good um I just add a little more I DCA I buy some more and that's hey if Google falls through 340 that's where I'm going to be at and earnings are coming up on uh the 22nd, which I think that's on Wednesday. Um so yeah, keep your eyes on Alphabet. One of my longer term holdings, guys. I can't even tell you how many years I've held Alphabet here, but yeah, I love the stock. Bought a bunch more in the 150 6070 range um when it was there recently about a year, two years ago, and now it's just taken off. And yeah, if it gets down to 300, even obviously under that 285, 270, 290, right? I'm going to buy more uh for the long term. So EPS is projected at, and listen to these numbers for a company as big as Alphabet, what $4.5 trillion market cap. EPS is estimated at $34 versus $2.31 from last year on revenue of 116.9 billion. That's the average estimate versus 96.4 from last year. That would be up over 21% yearonear. Insane. Insane growth for this type of company in terms of size. A and just this company's put year after year after year of just crazy um you know unbelievable gains in a row. Um and just business um outperformance in general. man, Gemini 3, right? All all these crazy things with YouTube, search advertising. Google is a beast and they've been doing it for years. And at this point, it's down about what 15% from highs. Hey, you can even say now's a good time to buy. Uh, but I'm going to wait till earnings if we get that gap down, which I'm not saying we will, but if we do, I'm going to be buying more. Um, and I don't think we will necessarily. The stock's already down 15%. But we'll see. I mean, it is a descending triangle here. Keep that in mind. Um, that is a bearish pattern, but we're not under it yet. So, I'm going to set my alert at uh let's say 340. I guess that would be a good spot. Let's do that. 340. And let's see here, guys. Let's do um Tesla is number two. So, get ready. We got We have Alphabet and Tesla this week, guys. I also own Tesla. I am underwater on Tesla. Not much. My average cost is like 410. Uh but man, this thing has has not been doing anything for months. I mean, yeah, it's been up a little bit here recently. It's been volatile, but overall, it hasn't really broken through the mid 400s, and I think it will, but it might take a little longer than I initially thought. But we have earnings on Wednesday as well for Tesla. So big day Wednesday, man. Tesla, Alphabet after the bell. And analysts have them doing 54 cents earnings per share versus 40 cents from last year on revenue of 26.36 billion versus 22.5 from last year. That would be up uh what 17%. Yeah, 17% year-over-year. Pretty good. not not where it was five ten years ago but getting better slowly. Remember when their growth was like stagnant top line certain quarters uh you know what two years ago when was that? Um so things are getting better at Tesla obviously we have robotics coming up big big play longer term uh we have self-driving FSD they're rolling that out in different cities. It's funny. I just saw a I was in I forget what city I was in, but I saw Whimo for the first time. Oh, I was in Philly and people were in it. So, they're obviously I think they're testing it. Uh, you know, doing whatever running certain certain tests, blah, blah, blah. You guys know. And, uh, it's coming, guys. And I'm sure you you all in major cities out there, you've seen these around the city. Let me know in the comments if you have. It's coming. And Tesla's at the forefront of that. Google, Alphabet, and that is partly why I own um these stocks right now, obviously, you know, and Tesla has a big robotics factor, but that's longer term. Although Elon says, "Oh, robots are going to be everywhere in like a year." I I mean, I don't think he said that, but you know how he always um you know, his timeline is always shorter or you know what I mean. his deadlines. He never hits his deadlines, but overall, I think Tesla will will be a big player in robotics in due time. Uh that's a longer term play. Uh but really, look, earnings are coming up. If they if they do good, man, if their earnings are strong, um good guidance, this is going to snap back. In my opinion, it's due for a snapback. But then again, it kind of depends on the market conditions that day. If we have a rough day in the NASDAQ, do I expect a big, you know, rebound in Tesla? Maybe a little bit, but it could ultimately be sold off if the market's looking rough. Uh, we'll see. That's why I don't trade earnings, guys. I just hold through them. Uh, you know, if if I'm holding a position longer term, even if it's a midterm swing trade, right? I'm holding through. Uh, but I'm not doing, you know, crazy weekly options plays or anything like that. So number three is Intel INTC which this one is very beaten up. Um and they have earnings I think on uh Thursday in the aftermarket the 23rd. Um and they're down their stocks down like 40% 35. Yeah 345%. Unbelievable. And if we look at it here you guys can see the fact that it took out the lows from uh when was that? Early June. That worries me a bit. I got to be honest. You know, if it held this point right here, let's say it it held this trend, that would have been pretty good, right? Technically speaking, but we took that out, man. Uh the bears are pretty, you know, in charge right now. Although, we do have kind of a bullish divergence down here on the RSI. We're starting to see potentially a bottom. Volume's kicking up as well. Uh but at the end of the day, man, this is a falling knife. INTC death cross, but you could always just dollar cost average if you want to own the stock and you don't know where the bottom is. You you don't want to buy here because you think it might go lower. Uh but you know, oh, it might go higher. If you want to just buy a little bit, you can always do that. Dollar cost average. Not just an Intel, any stock that's down and you're worried about, oh, am I going to nail the bottom? You're probably not going to nail the bottom. Dollar cost average. That's what it's all about, man. Um, and especially with stocks that have been kind of crazy like Intel, a bit volatile, scaling in slowly is ideal in my opinion. Trade at your own risk though, man. Do your own research. As always, I'm not a financial adviser and I'm not long Intel. I'm only long so far um Google and Tesla. And actually, those are the only ones out of all these stocks that I own. So, that's Intel. Quick little breakdown. And even though it looks a bit rough in the short term, look, that's the best time overall to buy when we're in a bull market, when stocks are just pulling back. Even if it's a major pullback, 35%. I mean, this stock literally 5xed 4xed. So, a 35% pullback is not that bad when it went up already 400%. You know what I mean? So, if you think about it that way, and the fact that we're still in a bull market, this is this is not that bad, man. And the one-year chart shows, okay, it could go down a little a little more, right? But we're we're getting close to potential bounce point on Intel in my opinion. Um, it's just a little too beaten up and it comes down to earnings. We'll see. And GE Vernova is another one. Ticker GEV, which this kind of looks like an inverse head and shoulders to me. I don't know about you guys. Uh but it it's kind of clear almost pretty clear. Uh we have the left shoulder right there. Boom. The head, the right shoulder. You guys see we're kind of trying to break through here, which we have been seeing a bit of resistance on this 4hour chart. Uh you guys see the trend line. Boom. 50 SMA resistance. So, if we take that out, I think this could be a runner, but it comes down to, you guessed it, earnings, which are coming up on uh let's see here, the 22nd on Tuesday. And I just realized that I tell you guys um uh what's it called? Intel's earnings estimates. I didn't wait a second. Intel analysts have them doing I forgot. EPS of 22 cents versus the loss of 10 cents from last year on revenue of 14.4 4 billion versus 12.86 billion. Uh that will be up 12% year-over-year. So keep your eyes on Intel again and Gernnova where analysts have them doing let me pull it up again here guys. Earnings per share of $319 versus $1.86 86 from last year on revenue of let's see here guys one or 10 excuse me.76 billion versus 9.11 billion from last year up 18%. So pretty good growth out of GEV. EPS is going to go up like a$120 year-over-year. Phenomenal there. And if guidance, you know, if guidance is strong, look, they're known to pop on earnings. At least they have the last couple of quarters. This could break out. I'm I'm telling you, man. And this inverse head and shoulders could end up playing out. That's the way I'm seeing it on this uh on this 4hour time frame at least. What do you guys think? Let me know. And by the way, make sure to subscribe. I think 50% of you guys on YouTube watch the content, which I appreciate obviously. Uh but if you're if you're not subscribed, hit that subscribe button. We're trying to get to 100,000 subs and we're almost at 70. So, we're getting there. We're 70% of the way there, man. And I've been doing this YouTube channel uh for like eight years now, right? And on Facebook, shout out to you guys on Facebook. I think we're almost at 100K. So, hey, we're getting there. It's awesome. Thanks guys for all the support. So, Service Now is another stock um that I'm watching which I thought it was about to break out literally a couple of days ago or about a week ago and we got hit with a fake out, right? This thing got to about 115. I thought it started to break out there. Never took a position. Uh you know, and it's just gotten a little bit um it's gotten a little hit since that point. Right. We hit about 115. Now we're at 103 down about $12 and it's just getting, you know, it's that it's that resistance, man. Tough spot for Service Now. And earnings might get it through there potentially coming up on Tuesday, um, or Wednesday, excuse me. We have Service Now, and look, their earnings are not that bad. EPS is projected at 86 cents, which, okay, versus 82 cents from last year. Not the best growth there, but not bad either. I mean, it's growing. And revenue is projected to grow 22%. That's great, right? 3.93 billion is the average estimate versus 3.21 billion from last year. So all this has to do technically speaking is take out 115. If we can actually take 110 out even um start to see some momentum kind of out of this cluster right here, this range, whatever you want to call it. If we can get out of here, guys, um th this could run. It could be a runner to 125, 30,35. And a lot of people are are saying, oh, you know, people are rotating out of memory out of certain AI stocks, semi stocks, and they're buying some software names. Hey, if that narrative sticks, hey, good earnings as well. This could end up going going a bit higher. So, we'll see. Not guaranteed, though. Obviously, do your own research, guys. And uh yeah, that's pretty much it for the video. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Google, Tesla, Intel, GEV, Service Now. Do you guys own any of these stocks? All these stocks. Are you planning on buying these stocks? Let me know in the comments and hit the like button, subscribe. I appreciate you all. Check out the Patreon if you want to join the community, the private Discord, see my portfolio updates. All that stuff is linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stocksurfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, I'll see you all in the next
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