JOSH BROWN SAYS "THIS STOCK IS ABSOLUTELY RIPPING TO THE UPSIDE" (07/23) Blue Cloud Trading Analysis

Blue cloud trading [singing] through the night. >> Welcome [music] back to the channel everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the halftime report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking heads are saying. Hit that like button. Subscribe if you haven't already and let's roll the tape on the first clip. >> All right, thank you very much Carl. Thank you Sarah. Welcome to the halftime report. I'm Dominic Shu in for Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the alphabet aftermath as more AI spending overshadows cloud growth and ways on the markets. The investment [music] committee is standing by with what it all means for your money. Joining me for the hour are Josh Brown, Malcolm Ethridge, Jim Leventhal, and Jason Snipe. Let's get a check on the markets which are decidedly negative again throughout the course of the session here. We've seen the markets move to the to the downside and now we're just bouncing off some of the lows. The Dow's down about a 523 points, roughly 1%. The S&P 500 down by about 1 and a3% to a level of 7,400. That big figure right there on the number and the Nasdaq Composite 25,089 off about 2.5% there. Gentlemen, this is a down day. We've seen them before, but does this one feel different than other down days given the fact that it's being triggered by maybe arguably one of the mag seven, if not two of the mag seven? And then Jim, I'm going to start with you on this one here. >> Well, I mean, okay, it's a down day and I get it. Alphabet's down and some people are worried about the capital expenditures. I'm not. Uh, I would also point out that as far as down days have gone recently. It's nice to show a little bit of sign of strength in something like Micron, some of the memory chips makes sense, right? If capex is going up at Alphabet, if they're not throwing in the towel because of Chinese open- source large language models, then okay, it's game on for spending at Micron, which of course they have those long-term uh contracts in place. Look, I I get it. There are people who are worried that AI is a bubble. I certainly understand that. Um I'm more in the camp of the CEOs of these hyperscalers, the the Brad Gerson of the world, who all feel that at worst we're in the middle innings of this. Um and yes, I get it. political blowback against data center construction. Some people don't want them in their backyard. There's enough places to build these things and clearly from Alphabet, we're going to continue to build them whether we like it or not. So, um I don't look at this as a bad sign. I look at it as the AI trade is is alive and healthy. >> Josh, you either have to spend the money, you got to spend the money, right? Because you position yourself for future growth or you don't spend the money and are not positioned for that future growth down the line. It seems like a bit of a paradox. Is it one that is overall constructive over the medium-term? Long-term, we know it is. That's the future of technology. But short to medium-term, how exactly then do you reconcile the paradox about spending versus positioning for growth down the line? >> Okay. So, two different answers to your question. And I know I I have all the time in the world, right guys? We're good. [laughter] >> Yes. >> The first answer is I've been talking about the second half as being um a totally different environment from the first half. And in the second half, I think you want to focus on non-hyperscalers that are seeing business improvement in the form of upside earning surprises as a result of their uses of AI. I like this story so much better. This whole broadening out trade that we're living through in the markets, this whole shift away from Mac 7, from hyperscaler and into other sectors, other areas is being driven by this idea. There are companies that are demonstrating material progress in incorporating all of these AI tools that Alphabet and Meta are paying for and they're able to tell the street. Oh, by the way, this earnings uh beat sponsored by our use of blank. Name your name your favorite LLM. So, I've given two examples for the viewers on the show. Recently, I've been pounding the table on travelers. Let's go ahead and put up a chart here. bright green in a dark red tape. It's not a secret as to why. Here's Chub. We talked about this Tuesday. CB, another situation, insurance just absolutely ripping to the upside. You talk about the companies that are going to feel the efficiencies and the productivity from AI use first. These have to be at the top of the list. Then you look at the industrials. I talked about Alphabet the other day as being literally the key to the market. like like like what could resurrect um this AI trade? It's going to be the capex number. Google took its capex number up um by five or 10 billion dollars. Good enough. Look at the industrials today. The best performing sector, Caterpillar up 1.7%. GE is up. GEV is up as well. Uh um and and when you've got the industrials reacting positively to a game on announcement from Alphabet, you look at this market and you say, "Okay, I don't need to worry about whether or not the hyperscalers hold up. I have so many other ways to play what's going on." Malcolm, the the overall feel in the market right now has been for weeks this idea and and we all go back to the same chart about how much money the hyperscalers are spending out of their free cash flow and how much of that is being transferred to hardware companies that have to build AI infrastructure. >> This is a trade right now though that to Josh's point benefits way more companies than just the select maybe 10 or 15 at the top of this kind of mag seven hyperscaler type food chain. Is it one though where if you look at these sectors overall, you have to be even more specific about what parts of those sectors and what industries specifically are going to be the outstanding beneficiaries of this as opposed to just the kind of market beneficiaries. >> Yeah, it's absolutely a stock pickers market. Josh is pointing out there are companies with green on the screen even as the market seems to be selling off at large today. This is an important moment to be paying attention to which companies are showing up green. But separately from that, I was on last week when Shannon said it's a tough quarter to have a tough quarter. And I think that is being proven true right now. For a company that was already trading at a decent premium to the market, something like 24 times earnings, to then turn around and have a a second miss in a row, the last thing that the street wanted to hear is, and oh, by the way, we're going to raise the top end of our capex target by about $15 billion. I think that what Google has proven is that they are not going to be the first one to blink in this hyperscaler uh capex arm arm race. But I think what investors are looking to hear, what the analyst community is looking to hear is really where the tangible benefits of this capex is going to be in layman's terms. We don't necessarily want to hear about the huge projections for by 2030 this thing will be. We got that in the form of incre increased uh growth in uh Google cloud which I thought was very positive. They increased growth there by about 20 percentage points above what they did last quarter which was massive last quarter. So I think they are working it out. They are proving the bull case for why you'd want to be invested in the companies doing the spending at least for Alphabet. But it's also going to be a while before that one starts to really go in the other direction. But, you know, it's up 70% still with today's pullback over the last year. Maybe there's a reason why folks are taking profits. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit. >> So, Alphabet, by the way, to put points on this sequentially, you talked about the massive move higher in cloud revenue. It's even more impressive on a year to year-over-year basis. It's up 82 82% year-over-year. We've also got their capex guidance, of course, being raised. Let's talk about, you mentioned the analyst community. There are a handful of moves that are happening right now. JP Morgan did reiterate its overweight rating on Alphabet in light of these earnings, but they did cut their target price by 40 bucks to $420 a share. Piper Sandler cut their target price as well, but then reiterated their overweight rating. Piper Sandler says the 22 2Q226 results were largely in line with our expectations, but cloud materially outperformed, accelerating 82% year-over-year. shares fell 4% after hours as management raised its capex guide and reiterated plans for a significant increase in 2027. A handful of other analysts are out there doing this. And Jason, you're a shareholder >> of Alphabet. How much do you care about what some of these projections by the company itself are and then what the analysts are projecting the repercussions could be for share price down the line? >> Yeah, I think the key is obviously the the reiteration of overweight, right? I mean some some price pullback that's fine. And I mean the stock is roughly flat. It's up 2% so far this year. They had to raise the and reaffirm and raise the capex's guide from my perspective. I think the street also is looking at the operational margin miss. I mean it's by 2%. I think the expectation was 36. They came in at 34. You know I think I think that's bit of a concern. And then negative free cash flow. Again, we got to continue to raise capital, whether it's secondaries or debt offerings, to continue uh to spice up the chain to be able to reinvest and get these LLMs to a level uh where there's true enterprise adoption. So, I think that is the story. I think we will likely see a read through uh to Amazon and some of the other hyperscalers as a result of some of the spending. Once one makes a move like this, the others will follow. Um and that is, you know, somewhat concerned. to Josh's point earlier the the story has to be about the breath the AI beneficiaries to Jimmy's point Micron moving today uh unfortunately we're seeing energy move a lot today for other reasons but you know we need to see other sectors continue to uh play in this bull run industrials financials healthcarees which we've seen over the last couple weeks I think we need to continue to see that to overall see a healthy market going forward >> Tom I just want to point out one thing all right this may >> by the way Jim you're a shareholder as well so I I'm kind of curious what you Yeah. And as a shareholder, a long-term shareholder, obviously I'm not [clears throat] happy down 6% today, but I've got to put it in the perspective of over the last year, it's up 67%. Over the last year, the value of Alphabet, the company, is up $1.2 billion. Like it it can take a breather. The way that it got that much appreciation is because the number of earnings reports that came in much better than expected. And when you get those reports a year ago, 9 months ago, you say to yourself, it's not going to last forever. What's happened this quarter is very understandable, particularly the negative free cash flow. If you don't believe what I said earlier about this is the middle innings of AI, this is not the stock for you. I get it. Or maybe like Josh said, you've got a bunch of derivative plays elsewhere of where artificial intelligence is going to help out. But I'll tell you, my own opinion is that this is an easy stock to hold over the next year. Maybe it, you know, maybe it takes a few days, a few weeks to kind of digest this earnings report, but there's going to come a point in time, probably not that far away, where money starts flowing into the hyperscalers again. Amazon Alphabet will benefit. >> Two things happened during the course of this quarter. One is it wasn't horrible, but search was uh not as good as expected as a specific line item. >> I wonder if you if you view that as potentially now something to monitor going forward. Um because cannibalization of search was always a negative hanging over Alphabet. It ended up being much to do about nothing because they went all in on on AI responses to queries and the profitability was okay. But I'm just curious and then the second thing >> um look this is a company that had been buying back stock for most of the last 10 years >> and during the course of this quarter they came out and surprised everyone with um with an at the market equity offering. Do you think there might be another one during the course of this quarter given what they're saying about capex and is that now something that maybe materially changes the story? >> I mean good question. So the second one first I mean certainly they could. I don't think they would want to. I know the debt market is pretty saturated right now but the cost of equity capital is a lot higher for Alphabet in my opinion than debt capital. So I'd rather have them do that. Yeah they did the secondary got some cash in their hands. Fine. Um, where this all comes down to >> is not small >> 85 million. But where this all comes down to is they are investing. And as I said, you either believe the investment is going to pay off or you don't. If you don't, then obviously you're not owning Alphabet. I'm not going to dare anyone to short it, but if that's your, you know, if that's your cup of tea, go right ahead. With regards to your other question about search, I kind of saw it close enough to call it inline. But okay, instead of debating that, what I think is more interesting is what um AI AI overview is doing to a number of publishers. There's some reports on this. You know, Alphabet may have to figure out some ways to compensate the Reddits of the world, the Fortune magazines of the world, >> or get sued into the Stone Age, right? Well, I you know, yeah. I mean, I'm not sure those lawsuits would have any real legs to it, but it's probably better to just co-opt that and get a better revenue sharing agreement in place. >> Can I go back to something really quickly? Cuz to answer your question about whether they're going to need to do another capital raise or not, I think the answer is obviously yes. But what I think gets missed here is for a company that is up 70% in one year, you know who was also up? All of their employees who get paid in restricted stock unit. So buried in the details of the last equity raise is the fact that about half of that is going toward paying the tax bill associated with those RSUs. So as long as that remains the key component of their equity compensation plan for all of their employees because oh by the way they're back up to about 200,000 as their headcount now. So there's a ton of people walking around with Google RSUs now. They're going to have to continue to keep tapping the equity markets that way, which is not going to be great for the analyst community, which you're seeing start to dial down what those price targets are. And you got to imagine they're baking in at least a piece of that. >> All right. So, so let's talk because I want to hit on something that you just you mentioned. You mentioned the cost of debt capital right now. You mentioned the cost of equity capital. I don't think there's any doubt in many people's minds that the cost of equity capital at this point is on an after tax basis certainly not as advantageous as doing it on debt capital right now which is the reason maybe arguably why all of these companies are raising funds at not that many basis points above treasuries at this point to finance their expansion plans. I I guess this has been a negative story for a while, but how much do we have to worry about the increased leverage that these companies are taking on visav the overall size of their equity capital balance sheet or or dilution from their equity issuances that they do? >> If you're a capital budgeter, if you're a treasurer or a CFO at one of these magnificent seven hyperscaler type companies, is it that much in doubt? I do this and I ask this question Visav credit default swaps bond insurance on Oracle specifically heading higher and higher and higher. It's still not non-investment grade but it's showing signs. How much do you have to worry about that? And maybe Jason, I'll start with you on this one. >> Yeah, I mean you you mentioned it. Um you know Oracle is obviously the poster boy in in that space. I feel like they switched from a growth story to a balance sheet story. Right now we're focused on the CDS as as you as you noted. um and the credit spreads potentially widening. Um and they're just a hair above junk from a from a debt perspective. So I think that is concerning. It's no longer a story about RPO. Man, these size sizable RPO numbers. Wow. Blah blah blah. Quarter after quarter. It's are you able to execute and what is [clears throat] the cost of execution? So I do think it's absolutely a concern in the market. You know the the issuance and and obviously uh how that affects shareholders. So definitely I think it's something I'll be watching very closely. >> All right guys, hold that thought. Just a quick reaction here. Jim, I'll go to you for this one. When we talk about the market moves that we're seeing with the Dow down roughly 400 to 500 points, the NASDAQ, we know Alphabet's a big part of that story. So is Tesla. In the market move scheme of things, mathematically we understand that the majority of this is being driven by stock specific moves. I wonder from those stock specific moves and the broader markets overall together, how much do we care about this stuff, right? tariffs about the Middle East, about Iran, about maybe opening up the another front against Oman given what's happening with the Red Sea versus specifically hyperscaler capex spending plans visav Alphabet and maybe others. >> Yeah. I mean, I'll phrase it this way, Dom. I think if you're making policy decisions in the White House about Iran, you have to put the financial markets to the side because in order to get done what needs to get done, you may over the short term have to sacrifice the financial markets. Let me be more specific. If you really want to get rid of the nuclear program, if you really want regime change, I know that hasn't been stated, but if that's what the goal is, you're going to have to do things that are going to freak out the oil market more than they already have. and we're kind of running close to the bottom. Whether it's the strategic petroleum reserves or Cushing Oklahoma commercial inventories, we're getting to that point where if we're not going to pull back from this, we're going to have serious problems. And it doesn't look like we're pulling back. So, the market, in my opinion, is skating past this where I look at the S&P 500 off about 3-ish% from its high. I think we need to be prepared that as we get later in the summer, uh, these higher energy prices may have an effect. In the end, it'll be resolved, but it could be a tricky August into September. >> If that's the case, Josh, what exactly then do you do from an investor and trader standpoint if you want to be long this market and you want to be in it for the longer term? Do you have to pay attention as much tactically short term to these types of movements or can you feel like the old dollar cost averaging every week or two or every month or so just works over the long term? How exactly much do you have to really pay attention to price action like this? >> Well, the first thing is you never sell your energy stocks. It is as an equity investor. It is the only hedge you have against these types of price spikes and inflation scares and geopol uh geopolitical shocks. There's nothing else that that really could work from an equity standpoint. So, let's put aside you're going to be out there in the futures market acting like you know what you're doing. Most people are not going to do that. So as a from a portfolio management standpoint to answer your question, you do not sell your energy. What that means unfortunately is you will live through long stretches of time where it quote unquote doesn't help or worse detracts from performance. This is about being a long-term thinker and understanding not every piece of the the puzzle is going to be going up at the same time. This year it's been working very nicely. 25% of the energy sector has been advancing for the last 5 days. Um, and energy is the best sector this year, up 34%. It blows tech away almost double. Tech is up 18% this year. So, you haven't paid the quote unquote energy stock tax this year. And I thought we could blaze through a couple of tickers real quick because we have several energy stocks in our port uh porterhouse portfolio currently and many of these are also on the best stocks in the market list. Let's take a look at FTI. Let's take a look at Devon. Hallebertton has been on the list all year. We've talked about Marathon and Valero I don't know how many times in these spec stocks in the market segments on the show 10 times. It it just it seems like the market has had this figured out uh o over over the last 6 months that they want to be in these names. They're willing to buy the dips. Uh EOG is up 2% today. Fang is up 2% today. Uh people don't really own these stocks. People don't really know them. I'm not suggesting you buy them today on an oil price spike, but for God's sake, take a few minutes, familiarize yourself with the sector because there are probably some names that deserve a spot in your portfolio. >> I mean, for goodness sake, these days, even if you don't want to do all of the homework on these individual stocks, you can find any cadre of ETFs out there that can give you the exposure to those types of things if you're using it as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against inflation and higher energy prices. I think overall though if you talk about the way that these movements are are working their way through the market energy does not have that much of an impact. Yes, it's a great bright spot in the down market but from a percentage waiting basis it doesn't really carry that much weight. What does though in versus the entire almost energy sector are those magnificent seven names. One of the ones that we didn't talk about as much or allude to is Apple. And by the way Apple is a relative outperformer. Many of these Amazon metas are down anywhere from 3 4 5% just shy of what Alphabet is doing. Apple is right now down maybe 1 one and a half% the last I checked. Is Apple one of those stocks and I say this because the entire desk here owns shares of Apple. It staged a nice quiet rally. Didn't get as much fanfare over the course of the last several weeks. Briefly overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable publicly traded company. What exactly is the thesis for Apple right now? and why it is have why has it become a lagger to now a silent leader? Malcolm, I'll go to you for this one first. >> We're still waiting for the super cycle. That's really all it is. We we didn't get the dip that we expected. We didn't get the punishment in Apple shares that we expected over the last couple of years where almost everyone has sat at this desk and asked where is Apple in this AI arms race? They stayed out of it. Their capex looks minimal in comparison to what we're talking about with Alphabet for example today. And oh by the way, there's still a ton of folks that haven't adopted the 16 and 17, which means that they still have the potential for the upgrade. So when you look at things like their uh recent announcement, the partnership with CLA to help you uh buy lease their next devices, it's an opportunity to help spur that up that super cycle that we're talking about, that upcycle. I also think it's an opportunity to help increase their services revenue which has been the spot that a lot of folks have pointed to as the real growth mechanism for Apple because who doesn't already have at least one Apple device around the globe. So I think it's a a patience uh story right now and if you have been patient with Apple waiting on them to show you how AI is going to change your life and the way that you interact with the device, I think you're probably going to be rewarded for it. But lastly, I'd say this goes back to the point that I was making before about investors waiting on these analyst uh sorry, on these earnings calls for CEOs and CFOs to make the case in tangible terms, in layman's terms, this is how AI is going to change your life. We haven't really gotten that just yet from these companies. It's been very enterprise focused and I think Apple is the perfectly positioned company to tell that story in a way that regular ordinary consumers can appreciate. >> I agree I agree with Malcolm. Apple is I think Apple's going to own consumer AI. I think uh you buy every dip. I think the stock could get to 400 if they continue to execute. Last quarter was a return to earnings and revenue growth after I don't know 18 months of nothing. >> Um the 17 was a smash uh comparable to to uh previous big uh replacement cycle phones. And now the 18 is going to have AI on it. September 1st we're going to hear from John Turnis for the first time um as CEO leading one of these launches. I think it'll be the foldable and you'll get a gentic Siri by year end. Um, and they have approval now to do AI on the phones in China. So, I think like the the the tailwind behind Apple is as good as it's been in the last few years. I think the market has woken up to it and they love the fact that we don't have this like uh black hole of capex happening with Apple's balance negative free cash. >> They do have a massive amount of capex, but you know who it's being funded by? >> But there's an a lot is an ROI. >> All of us, correct? Because we're all out there buying to to Malcolm's point, if there is a super cycle coming up and iPhone upgrades and Mac upgrades and everything else. I I remember talking to one tech investor who basically said, you know what, there are not that many companies, Dom, that have as many edge computing touch points as Apple does, right? the devices in our hands, in our homes. If you're trying to connect to the cloud, if you're trying to connect to many of these AI type systems, you're doing it through edge devices. >> 2 and a2 million devices installed base is massive. >> Yeah, this toll booth. So, I look, you like Claude, great. You're probably going to utilize it through iOS, right? >> Guess who's getting paid? >> I think there's a technicality to this as well. I'm not going to say technical, but a technicality. I have a market weight in Apple. Okay. I have to say I'm not as enthused as the rest of the group in this regard. I think it's priced into the stock at 34 times earnings. But what am I going to do as a portfolio manager who has retail clients? What am I going to do? Am I going to sell Apple here, give them a whopping big tax bill because we've owned this for years. >> Extra phones, right? [laughter] >> No, I'm not. So, you know, look, new money comes in. Of course, I'm putting some to work. Am I putting it in at the market weight? It's a little hard with what it's done so far. I mean, this was a $180 stock 15 months ago. >> All right. All right, we we have to take a commercial break. I didn't want to kill the momentum. I'm like I'm like the I'm like the DJ that's killed all the momentum in this in this conversation in the dance party right now. All right, coming up next here, more of the day's biggest movers and our top calls of the day. >> All right, so that was the first clip from CNBC. I will show the second clip in a few moments. Before we go there, let's take a look at the stocks. Uh some of them, not all of them because some of the stocks are actually in my portfolio. Here are the stocks that we're going to cover though. And let's start off with EOG. We're going to look at the technicals of EOG Resources Inc. It's an energy sector stock. It does have a blue flag. What that means is that it's technically sound on both the weekly chart where price is above the moving averages in the Ichimoku cloud and on the daily chart. Today, price gapped up as you can see right here. So, it went from this level to that level and then it the rest of the day it did drop. It was still up 1.06%. The momentum is still to the upside here. Uh the volume has been consistent as you can see here. And so there's a higher likelihood that it's going to come and reach up to 151.87. That's the all-time high. Now, this is a purple line which represents the monthly chart. Let's switch it over to that. So, it goes back to this specific month of March 31st, 2026. But what's interesting about this 15187 level is the fact that if you look back here, notice how it reached that level in the past. We're talking about back in 2022, November 30th of 2022 and dropped. It also came very close right here back on June 30th of 2022 and dropped. Let's go back a little further and didn't quite make it back here in 2018 to 2019, but that's a really critical level that I'd be watching. 15187. If it can break through that level, I think that's really going to be big. Okay. Uh, F A NG, Diamondback Energy. Let's look at this one. Three weeks in a row, it's been moving up, but it too is right under a weekly level. That's the blue line that you see right there, 21450. So, we're looking at a weekly chart. It goes back to this date, the high from July 19th of 2024. All right. See that trend line that was broken? Price has been moving up. And so, let's look at the daily chart. Today we created a reversal candle. It's almost like a shooting star type candle. I wouldn't be adding a position here based on this candle. We're also Let's see how far are we from the highs. About 4.14%. All right. So, from the all-time highs going back to, like I said, back to 2024. So, let's wait for 21450 on that one. XLE, here's an interesting thing. We talked about this one yesterday actually. This is the energy ETF. So, I drew this trend line from this high to that high. drew the trend line all the way across. What's interesting is this morning price actually gapped from yesterday's candle um on Wednesday up to this high right here. And then what happened? The sellers came in and pushed it right through. We can see all that action on the 3minut chart. Let's go back a little bit here. Let's zoom out to on the 3minut chart. There's the big gap up. Okay. And at around 9:30 a.m. it dropped, came back up, and then spent the rest of the day dropping as you can see. So, uh, it was only up.3% by the end of the day, but the daily chart is still relatively strong. I don't know if price is going to pull back here some more tomorrow. I can't tell for sure, but the overall trend is still strong. The cloud itself has turned bullish. The single span A crossed above the same span B. You look at the weekly chart as well. So, we're just hovering right under that trend line. The question is, will this be a strong enough level of resistance to hold price back? We'll wait and see for tomorrow. Apple has broken through. Okay, this is a weekly chart that you're looking at right here. In fact, let's change the color here to light blue to represent that. It's better to color coordinate uh your trend lines based on time frames, I think. So, that that way you know why that line is there, where it comes from, what time frame is it coming from. So, the weekly I like to use a light blue. And you can see it goes back to this candle right here, 316. We sorry this one here 31740 the week ending June 12th dropped came back all right broke through that level it's still above it we are creating a bearish harami this week that's when you have a large bull candle followed by a small bull uh bare uh candle on the weekly here's a daily chart it actually pulled back and now we have a dogee here so it's right under the 9 period I wouldn't be adding a position here in Apple at this point as it's been pulling back but it could easily you if we just get a little bit of positive news for Apple. It might bounce and if it gets above the 9 period again, it will also be breaking above the high of that candle right there and that will be bullish and maybe it will create another leg to the upside. Technology in general though has been a lagard right now. So, it's not something that I have been focusing on at all. There are some sectors that are really bullish. Those are the sectors that I share with uh legend and blue cloud trader level members and uh today I add some positions in those sectors and I shared those with legend level members in a post one caterpillar. All right, so this one is pulling back. You can see doesn't have a blue flag here in the daily chart because it's inside the cloud, the Ichimoku cloud. And when that's when price is inside the cloud, you want to be holding off. Uh basically it's still in a downward channel. as you can see here. Okay. So, as long as the direction is down, it doesn't make any sense to be adding here. Let's take a look at GEV. GE VNOVA h it's kind of stuck. It's above the cloud, but it's under the moving averages. There's really no clear trend here. A lot of zigzagging of the cloud. The single span A has been crossing below and above the single span B. And so, when you have that, uh, obviously you want to hold off. All right. Google. Okay, yesterday came out with earnings. Look what happened after hours. Boom. Big drop. 7.13%. It dropped an additional 7.13% from that level there. Uh from I'm sorry, from this level. So from the prior days close under the 200 under the 200 and look at the directional movement index ADX is moving up here. Did it make sense to be adding Google right before the earnings? I mean look at this cloud. Uh when price is inside the cloud that means indecision, right? And so a lot of times what you will find is you know the insiders you'll see price breaking above the cloud prior to earnings or price will be above the cloud many times and then it will continue to the upside. When you see weakness especially you know like we saw yesterday before the close where price actually closed under the cloud before the earnings announcement that tells us something something ominous is about to happen. And guess what? Boom. It dropped the volume steadily was increasing over the last three days, too. So, you can see that as well. All right, let's look at Hallebertton next. Uh, that's also very bearish here. It is in the energy sector, which is a strong sector, but I wouldn't be recommending this stock. It's on the daily chart. It's in a downward channel still. It's three days in a row under the 200 day moving average. That's that dotted yellow line that you see right there. You look at the weekly chart. I mean it might stall here in the weekly 200 200 week okay moving average but I would stay clear of it for the time being and not add new positions here. uh if you have a position in it, this could certainly be a level to manage, right? So if you notice, for example, price breaking under, then you have to reconsider your position, consider getting out, you know, or maybe, you know, everyone has their own level of um tolerance when it comes to uh the pain that they experience in their stocks as they drop. [snorts] Micron, let's look at Micron on the weekly chart. It actually gapped up this week from the prior week and has been moving up, but it's been staying under the 9 period. Today, it was up 3.2%. But it's still under that 200, I'm sorry, it's still under the uh 26 period, the red line, the Keeunen. All right. So, and we also had a a negative cross over here where the nine period, the green line crossed under the 26. All right. So, that's not good either. If you look down over here, you'll see that the white line, which is the current price. It's called the Chico span. This white line that you see right there, okay, that projects 26 periods into the past. So, it's the current price projected 26 periods into the past. If that white line is below the candle 26 periods ago, that one right there, that's negative. You want to wait for the break above. You want to wait for the green line to cross above the red line and you want price to be above them both of those moving averages. We don't have that. You look at the direction movement index on Micron. The red line is still above the green line. So, we're not, you know, clear here yet. Uh Valero Energy actually, you know, I did have a position in this. I I just closed it uh uh yes, what was this? July 22nd, yesterday for 9.6% profit. So, since I closed out of the position, I don't mind sharing the trade with you. So, I added back here on July 13th. Made a quick little 9.6% profit. I didn't like what was happening here with these reversal type candles. I closed my position. It did drop another 1.78%. XLI industrials. Okay. So, Tenkinson is under the keyen. That's the green line is under the red line. So, that's the negative situation here that we have. Um, otherwise industrials looks relatively strong. It was up 1.73%. kind of like this candle that formed here. Let's look at the the weekly chart. On the weekly chart, we're still above the moving averages and we're still above this 17930. So, I think XLI has potential here. It's just not perfect scenario as far as this indicator is concerned, but it is showing some strength. It did in fact break above this trend line that you see right there. So, the volume was also higher. The green line here crossed above the red line. That's the positive DI9 crossing above the negative DI9. But I'd like to see a little bit more uh a little bit more from XLI, maybe even breaking above this prior high. All right, let's get back now to CNBC's second clip and then I'll do more analysis right after that. >> All right, welcome back to the halftime report. Let's get to some stocks on the move. Loheed Martin soaring after delivering a beaten raise in its most recent quarter. Leenthal owns it. Jim >> Dom, you know, sometimes the stock market makes things a lot harder than it has to be. Um, if you pull this chart out over the last year or so, you'll see that stock's been all over the place, guys. It's it's really kind of simple. And I'm not saying this with any gladness. We're shooting a lot of missiles. We're using a lot of helicopters. We're spending all of the things that Loheed Martin makes. This stock is a good hold for the next couple of years on that basis. >> All right. Blackstone's profit surging on its AI investments. And Jason, you were an owner. >> Yeah. So, obviously, I mean, Blackstone has struggled this year. is down about 20 so far this year. Kind of this private credit overhang in the early part of this year I think is still uh playing uh on the stock but nice revenue beat on the top and the bottom. Revenue was up 36% earnings was up 26% ton of dry powder uh $228 billion worth of dry powder. So um I continue to like this one. also realizations this $3.5 billion data center uh sale to digital realy now we seeing their real estate uh division up for the the most and it's been in four years so from an earnings perspective I continue to like uh the measurements here and I'll continue to own I'll stay patient here >> the alternative asset managers have been one where people have been trying to pick a bottom for a while so we'll see if that consolidation happens a little bit more in earnest here next one is Deutsche Bank upgrading JP Morgan Chase to a buy rating from a hold Malcolm and Josh both own JP Morgan. And maybe Josh, I'll start with you on this one. >> Yeah. So, I I've spent the better part of 20 years ignoring all the um upgrades and downgrades here because the fundamental thing that matters in banking is size and trust. And JP Morgan has both in spades. I think this is a stock that may not outperform every other bank over every cherrypicked time frame, but in the fullness of time, because they are the most trusted to not blow up and because they are among the largest, if not the largest in almost every category they play in, the earnings power has been literally off the charts. And I think that'll be the case for the for the foreseeable future. So, I remain long. You'll have to pry it from my cold dead hands. >> I actually assumed it was a typo. like how do you have the world's largest bank at a hold in the first place? This company's been, you know, co co-lead uh uh investment bank on basically every large M&A transaction that's happening this year. You got all these blockbuster IPOs and they're a hold on your list like >> because you know why? Cuz they look at the price to book and they think they're rocket scientists and they figured out something no one else JP Morgan relative to the other stocks in the group is overvalued by 18%. Are you a genius? I wonder why that's the case. Why does it have a premium valuation? Maybe it's because of the way the bank is run, the success that they're having in every line of business, and the fact that people trust them more than they trust any of the other leadership groups in the space. Could that be why there's been a premium on this stock for 20 years? Like, oh my god, you discovered uh fire. So that that's why people have it as a whole. >> We know we know how Josh feels about. >> So anyway, I'm bullish. All right. Of course, we we didn't we didn't glean that in in the minute monologue right now. All right, one last one here. Cleveland Cliffs is spiking after its second quarter revenue beat estimates. Jim Leventhal, you own this name. >> Yeah, congrats to the team at Cleveland Cliffs for a great quarter and a great prognosis going forward. I will be the first to admit before anybody piles on, this has been a very tough stock for me for many years. I think they're well on track here. Look, this is the stock's been trading this year like it's micron. It's up 15, down to 10, up to 15, down to nine. It's on its way back to 15. It should go higher. Look, this is a simple build business. You've got the price of steel, which they sell, going up. Their energy costs are under control. Their volumes are going up as the economy continues to expand. It's a simple equation, and it's working out for their favor right now. I expect further uh appreciation from here. >> All right. All right. Welcome back. We're off session lows. The Dow's down 465 points. Josh Brown is back with his best stocks in the market. Josh, what are you focused on today? >> That's right, Dom. We're going to talk about a stock that I literally do not trust, but as part of the research we do into the best stocks in the market, I have to listen to what the market's saying and at least investigate. And what it's telling me right now is that Wall Street may be ready to reconsider uh block. So, you may remember this company as Square. Ticker is inexplicably XYZ. This was a early fintech payments giant that literally had a uh midlife crisis during the pandemic. They started doing the wackiest things you can imagine. Um Jack Dorsey would take a walk in the Hamptons with Jay-Z. Next thing you know, Block was paying $300 million to buy streaming music platform called Title for six times what Jay-Z bought it for a couple of years earlier. Okay, I guess. Then they bought Afterpay, literally at the top of the market for uh buy now pay later. And then they started loading up the balance sheet with crypto. And by the time they were done, Block fell 26% in 2021 uh as the market made new highs. It is still 72% below those highs. And what's happening lately though is that the market has taken this to a 52- week high. Thank you for that zoom and perfect timing. I don't trust Jack Dorsey. I was like an 8year uh survivor of being a Twitter shareholder. Mark Zuckerberg famously referred to Twitter as a clown car that crashed into a gold mine. I think that's fairly accurate. And if not for the fact that Elon put us all out of our misery by buying it at a very high multiple, I probably would have lost money. Miraculously, somehow I didn't. So, I'm not personally getting into this turnaround in particular, but I do want to spotlight it because you've got this stairstep pattern of higher lows. You've got a company now that is expected to to actually grow earnings faster than almost any other company in in finance. They gave guidance to fullear earnings per share of $3.85. That would be 62% above what they had done in the prior year. And in the meanwhile, you don't have to pay up for it. It's a fairly low multiple. So, the market is starting to give this company the benefit of the doubt. Technically, I'm going to tell you right now, I need to see the breakout. I'm not anticipating this one. I need to see $81 a share with conviction. I want to see volume and I want an RSI that's in the high60s. And if I don't get it, I'm going to stay on the sidelines, but I did want to bring it to people's attention because this stock has been down and out for 5 years and now is starting to make new year highs. >> All right, Malcolm, let let's go to you for this one. >> Don't tell me you own this. >> No, no, no, no. [laughter] He does. But he does have to apologize. >> But he does own other financials and and fintech adjacent names. SoFi being one of them, Visa, American Express. How does block compare given what you've heard from Josh versus other financial payments and tech players? >> I don't think anything compares in the way he just framed that. I think Stripe maybe is the one that we would look at to give us a little bit of a comparison and the free cash flow coming from Stripe that allows them to be bold enough to decide to go buy something like an eBay. I think it's interesting. I think the whole fintech land fintech excuse me landscape is really being held down by the 10-year being what it is and being as stubborn as it is. There is tons of opportunity in names like SoFi you mentioned and rocket we've talked about a million times on this desk is potential breakout as soon as the 10-year moves and so then mortgage uh interest rates move as a a byproduct but I am paying attention to American Express's earnings that release tomorrow morning. What I'm looking for and is an opportunity honestly to exit this position and be vindicated and calling it I think early April when I got into the stock and said basically at 294 there's a disconnect between what the market is seeing and appreciating their pivot toward the higherend consumer. They're focused on the top end of the K. Really everyone who's getting an American Express card at this moment is only getting the platinum card which is far more expensive than all the other cards that they offer. And that seems like a really smart place to play. So, if that one goes on a tear following earnings, I'll be looking for an opportunity to ring. >> All right, AMX, a big one to watch for tomorrow as well. Thank you very much for that, guys. Up next. All right, one minute left in the show here. We're back with final trades. Jason, we're going to start with you. >> ABV, Sky Rizzy, and Renvo continue to be the growth drivers for this stock. I like this one here. >> All right. Now, let's go to Jim Leventhal. >> Yeah. Going with Trans Ocean rig. This is probably the highest beta to energy prices play that you can have. They do have earnings coming up in two weeks based on everything that's been going on with contract announcements, a potential merger with a competitor. I think now is the time to build your position. >> I didn't know we could do penny stocks on this show. >> It's $5. Come on. It's not a >> Hey, man. It's like a $6 billion stock. >> Malcolm, how about you? >> Yeah, talk about a green stock on a red day. Cerebrush just announced a strategic partnership with CrowdStrike that I think is going to help to validate their position as a leader when it comes to inference. >> Up 3% today. And Josh, >> wish me luck because I added to Netflix this week. It's one of the worst stocks I own, but one of the best businesses and I don't think it'll stay down here forever. >> All right, right now again, markets are on a down day right now. That does it for the halftime. We'll see you later on on Closing Bell. The exchange starts right now. and welcome to the exchange. I am Brian in for Kelly. Today, big tech getting hit as Google slips and bond yields rise. Every [music] Mag 7 stock not very magnificent today. Tesla down more than 10% as Alphabet earnings [music] get an F from investors. All this as oil prices keep moving higher back above $100 a barrel overseas. New [music] attacks in the Red Sea spooking investors. How far does this go? Al Lima Croft is here also. How is the rural and suburban [music] consumer really doing? Track for supply shares a little higher today despite some big earnings misses. That CEO is [music] here as well. We have got a big hour ahead. There's a lot to do. Welcome everybody. Let's begin though with the Iran war. It is now expanding beyond the straight of muz hitting the entrance to the critical red sea. All on the 12th night in a row of US strikes. Let's get right now to Aean Jab in DC from what we know at this hour. Aean. >> Yeah, Brian. And what a lot of folks are focusing on here is this social media post from the president. Take a look at it. In this post, he is threatening to expand the war to the Houthis in Yemen, responding to their attacks on Saudi ships in the Red Sea. The president says if they do this again, the US will hold Iran responsible in that the Houthis are a surrogate andor proxy of Iran and major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and of course the Houthis themselves who I am very disappointed with in that they have until now acted very professionally and smart. So take a look at the map just to refresh everybody on where uh the Red Sea is in relation to the straight of Hormuz. And what you see is this Babel Mendab strait at the southern end of the Red Sea there uh just off the coast of Yemen. Yemen is where the Houthis are. The strait is where the Saudis are trying to get their oil through. You see the straight of Hormuz to the north uh east there of the Babel Mendab Strait. Uh that's been throttled by Iran which of course borders it. The the Houthis are a proxy force for the Iranians. And the question now is what'll all this do to the long-term price of oil given that we saw this spike overnight after all this talk began. Uh the question militarily for the United States, Brian, is can it do anything to stop the Houthies from being able to close that straight? You know, you can go uh out the Suez Canal in the northern part of the Red Sea, but that adds a lot of complexity and time for oil shippers, particularly trying to get to Asia. Uh and so militarily the question is uh the United States has hit the Houthis in Yemen before. Uh can they hit them again enough to keep that straight open? And that's an open question right now. >> Well, and yeah, you can't go through the Suez with a ship that's over a certain size called a Suez Max for a specific reason. Aean, you and I have talked about this in the past. >> Is there still an understanding of who exactly or not an understanding of who we are negotiating with in Iran? it. Again, not to belittle us, I've been talking about this for months. People I talked to suggest it's not still clear who is actually in charge of Iran, if indeed anybody or one party truly is. What do we actually know right now? Well, I think the US knows a lot about who's in charge in Iran and and certainly they know who's been showing up to these, you know, on the ground negotiations where they've been physically talking to Iranians, you know, in hotel rooms and the like. The question is which factions do those Iranians represent and how powerful are each of the factions visav each other? You know, are there people who want to come to some deal and others who are willing to fight on until the bitter end? Uh I mean, I think that's a calculus that you're always making in intelligence trying to figure out how much leeway against domestic politics do the leaders you you're talking to actually have. And that's going to be a complicated question in a country where the leadership has been decapitated by the beginning of the war. And now you're seeing these power struggles emerge between people, you know, two and who had been two and three levels down in the leadership ranks before the war and now uh responsible for the fate of the country. >> Yeah, well said Aean Jabvers in Washington DC. Aean, we appreciate it. Thank you very much. You bet. >> Two mega cap tech stocks are getting trounced today. Both Alphabet and Tesla on pace for their worst day in more than a year and are dragging down the major averages. The reason here is that investors are just freaked out by their spending on AI. Next guest says, "Don't worry." Tan Ies of Yorkville Ives and Co. joins us. I mean, that's pretty much your mantra. Don't worry, be happy. But in this case, let's talk about Tesla number one. I mean, this is a company I was just reading its market cap is bigger than the next 36 biggest automakers put together. May is it just time for it to come down? >> You heard that on Power Lunch. >> Thank you. >> You're w you're welcome. >> It's look the reality. I mean, they're they're they're not a car company. They when you think about from an investor perspective, it's this is much more about AI disruptive tech. And I think when you look at Tesla, look, the issue here continues to be and same with Alphabet Capex investment for let's say in Tesla for physical AI, when it comes to autonomous, when it comes to Optimus, but you're not seeing in the near term and that continues to be this gut check moment. >> The stock is down more than 14%. Does this mean that investors just don't buy it? >> I think patience is is wearing thin, right? Because from an investor perspective, if you put up the capex numbers, but then you show it, they'll get benefit of the doubt. And I'd say Alphabet is out is is a different story relative to the type of growth that they're showing on cloud. I think for Tesla, this is not just right around the corner. You have to ramp up robo taxes. You have to show the physical AI story. Look, that's all that Musk is doing. And I think there is a view here too where with SpaceX and now of course Tesla must you know the the two golden childs that he has you know where this ultimately heads. I just continue to view it that we are still in the third inning of AI revolution and this is just the beginning of those stories. We'll get we'll get to AI in a second, but to follow up on that, does Dan Ies of Yorkville Ives, by the way, >> think that Tesla and SpaceX ultimately merge >> and there's over an 80% chance by the end of 2020, by the end of next year that SpaceX ultimately acquires Tesla. It's something where >> you're more bullish than the most bullish of Khi traders right now. Cali has those odds 10% before November 2026, rising up to 63% that it happens before 2028. Here's my question. Do you think that all these Tesla diehard champions always are starting to shift toward SpaceX? That's that's who they love right now. >> Yeah, I wouldn't I mean I look I think some which of your children do you love the best, right? So you could still have both of them, but I think from an investor perspective, it comes down to for Tesla, the the AI story is the future. It's not about deliveries, but you have to ultimately build it out. You have to have more cities, some road taxi, and Musk, you know, on the conference call, I think there was definitely some caution, right? And I think maybe in some ways that's smart, but that's why the stock's reacting accordingly. >> $1.3 trillion. I feel like I should do like the Dr. Evil pinky. Go do it. When we do that, nobody stopping you. >> A new movie coming out, by the way, apparently, which is the spending estimate on AI from these companies. Alphabet today saying they're going to spend more. Stocks down a little bit. In the previous hour, I posited to a guest >> that if they would have cut their spending on AI, the stock would be down a lot more >> than it is today. What's your take? It >> this is an arms race that's playing out and we're only 15% of the way through. The reality, >> will they ever make the money back on the spending? They have to. I don't. If they don't, there's no reason to spend it. >> I don't think there's even a question. And to some extent, the fact that they continue to spend on capex, and you'll see that with Microsoft, you see with Amazon, the rest of the hyperscalers. It's because enterprises, they're lining up on the use cases, the consumer piece. You've seen Apple that ultimately is just starting. So, it speaks to blank. This is Vegas 1955 building the strip. I mean, no, that's essentially where they are. So for these companies, they will ultimately get on the chin in terms as the stocks, but they cannot be shortsighted relative to this capback arms race that's playing out. >> Vegas, if you didn't show profit, somebody was getting kneecapped. Intel reports after the bell today. What are your thoughts on it's all about the demand story showing whether it's chips and Intel, whether it's hyperscalers because what that continues to speak to, it's our view this story is accelerating relative to demand. what enterprise are seeing whether it's memory whether it's chips whether it's hypers scales that's what investors focus on despite obviously what you're seeing today in the market >> you're saying not everybody got out of the desert alive >> I'm I'm they keep discovering bodies as the water goes down so yeah that's >> but you had you had great Sinatra dear and every new every >> now you have the sphere they want your point is they they wanted the sphere in the 1950s but they couldn't have it they had to wait for the investment >> if you told someone sphere was coming 55 what would they have said >> good stuff. Dan Ies, these are these are thoughts for the sphere or whatever happens in the sphere, >> but we're done here. I'm going to just keep rhyming. Dan Ies, Yorkville Ives, partner and senior managing director. Dan, thank you. All right, so we have another 11 stocks and ETFs uh combination here that we're going to take a look at that they just discussed in those other clips from CNBC from today's episodes. Right, let's take a look at AXP. We'll start off with American Express, Financial Services Sector, Credit Services. As you can see, price is under both of the moving averages, it is hovering right above that 200. You look at the weekly chart, we're inside the cloud, so it's looking pretty bearish. You'll notice that none of these stocks or ETFs have a blue flag. So, yeah, they're not something I personally would be considering at this time as an investment. Uh, Blackstone is also obviously in a downward channel, right? Technically, it's not sound, so I'd stay out of that one. CBRS is the next one we'll look at. Cerebrous Systems, Inc. So, you'll notice that the cloud doesn't even really exist here quite yet because uh there's only been a limited amount of weeks here that it's since it went public. So, there's not enough data for the Ichimoku cloud to be plotted on this on this chart. So, let's look at the daily chart. Okay, so we've got a little bit more information. It's currently under the cloud on the daily chart. Let's switch it to a 4 hour. A little bit more insight here. It's breaking above the cloud on the 4 hour and the 2our time frame, too. But we still have a lower low on the 2-hour chart right there. Okay. But we do have a higher high. So, what does that mean? It's it's called a megaphone pattern and it's not necessarily bullish. It's more bearish than bullish actually because we still have that lower low here. Now again, you switch it back to a 4 hour or one or a daily chart and we're still under that cloud. So, I'd hold off on this one. Obviously, CLF is under the cloud. It gapped up. That's Cleveland Cliffs. It's in the steel um basic material sector. It gapped up. Okay. Uh touched the 26 period, touched the 200, touched the top of the cloud here, and then dropped um big volume up 15.87, but it found resistance right there. Three levels of resistance. So, it backed off. Here's the weekly chart, right under the cloud. So, I'd hold off on this one. No, no reason to get in there. Intel is still on the weekly chart, uh, hovering in between the two moving averages, 3 weeks now. Here it is on the daily chart inside the cloud. Um, they did come out with earnings today. Let's take a look and see what it looks like post market after the hours. Um, all right. So, it moved up slightly. It's uh up 1.94, but it's still inside the cloud. Nothing major happening here. All right. So, let's look at Netflix next. Nothing interesting here either. It's been in a decline for a long time. Um, you may have remembered me talking about this support level and once it broke through that level, now it's dropped an additional 12.77%. It hasn't looked bullish here for a long time. Um, the last time it looked sort of interesting was back here where it broke above this high. Okay, it was very short-lived. It gapped down and then from that point right there where it gapped down, it dropped another 29.8%. 8%. Remember though, I probably if you switch it to a weekly chart, and this happened, this was starting to look bullish around this time frame. It was around April 13th of 2026. But what what did the weekly chart look like on on April 13th? Okay, 2026. Let's take a look. Well, you can see back in April, okay, it was still under the cloud on the weekly chart. Do you see what I'm talking about here? higher probability that it's going to continue to the downside when the weekly chart is in bearish territory. So, you do want to be be really careful about adding any new positions when price is under the cloud on the weekly chart. Okay, really important to wait for that break above. Netflix has been declining ever since um let's see what was the last time that it sort of made sense to I I suppose to be in here. Do you see this candle here? It was above the 9 period. That could have been a little buy signal right there potentially, right? It could have been. But since then, it dropped the very next day. Uh you can see we had a negative crossover here two days later. And from that point, it actually dropped 40%. RI, which is Trans Ocean Limited, another energy sector, oil and gas drilling, it's hovering right above that 200, just sitting there on the weekly chart. And on the daily chart, we're under the cloud. So, no on this one. Rocket. Um, let's see. RKT is a ticker symbol for Rocket Companies Inc. It's in the Specialty Finance. Um, no thanks on this one. It's under the cloud on the daily. And if you look at the weekly chart, also under SpaceX also doesn't have a cloud formation yet on the weekly because it's so new. But if we switch it to a 30 minute and we I've been talking about this 30 minute chart on SpaceX, everything started to fall apart like you know whenever a new there's a new issue stock a lot of times um those stocks tend to drop right after the uh the stock the company goes public, right? So it went from like up here at the highs at one point of 225 it's down to 118. It's basically dropped approximately 47.9% or so. That's a lot. So, it's still in a embedded decline on the 30-inut chart. So, I wouldn't even be considering it here. Obviously, Tesla is also under the cloud on the 30-inut. You look at the weekly chart, it's under the cloud here on the weekly. Bad week for Tesla. Today, it was down 14.5.2%. Broke under this low of 33724, which was a support level that I talked about. That all happened today. No thanks on Tesla and uh what about XYZ? Block Inc. in the technology sector. Okay, so this one on let's start off with the weekly chart. I do like the weekly chart for block. The only thing I'm concerned about here is the sector itself is not super strong right now. But the weekly chart looks very quite bullish because it is above that flattened 200 day moving average. You can see the 200 was declining. It started to flatten out here. Price got above it got above the cloud. It got above the moving averages. The future cloud has turned bullish. The ADX is moving up on the weekly. This is what you want to wait for. Okay? It doesn't necessarily mean this is going to all turn around tomorrow. But here's a daily chart. Uh we had this little move. It's been pulling back. So these last couple of days, it's been looking more bearish, right? And the negative DI crossed above the positive DI. So I would hold off on on this particular stock at this time. Here's some more things we're going to cover real quick. We're going to look at the SPY, the Q's, the Dow, the Russell, VIX, the Euro stocks, gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Copper. But before we do that, let's look to see where the indices closed today. Dow was down again 0.97%. The Nasdaq down 2.15% today. Again, it's Thursday, July 23rd, 8:32 p.m. Eastern time as I'm recording this. S&P 500 down 1.21% and the Russell 2000 down.58. Here's the heat map. Okay, a lot of red here in the technology stocks except for Micron which was up 3.2. Some of the semiconductor equipment materials are still moving up. Computer hardware is moving up a little. Communication equipment look okay I suppose. The industrial stocks look pretty bullish today. The healthcare stocks look pretty bullish. Diagnostics and research some of the stocks there. Um but uh yeah Tesla, Amazon, Google, Meta all down. Apple and Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle all in the red here. Here is here are the groups the sectors and you'll notice that industrials was the leader today up 1.5 2% and healthcare up 1.05 and energy up 65. Communication services and consumer cyclical were down the most. Here's the oneweek performance with energy at the top 5% up. Communication services down 8.23. And for the one-mon performance, energy is the leader up 8.88%. So, let's go ahead and take a look at these ETFs like the SPY. And actually, one more thing I want to do, guys. If you haven't subscribed, hit that subscribe button on my channel. BlueCloud Trading is the name of my channel. Also, um if you like the software that I've been using here, it's called TC2000. You can check your own stocks with this software. You can even try the software for free. All you need to do is click here where it says 10 more links. Scroll down a little bit and there's a $25 coupon affiliate coupon for TC2000. You click on this link, the second link and you'll you can enter your email there and as you can see here, you you receive a $25 coupon towards your TC2000 service, but to be eligible, you must not have used it in the last 12 months. So, you get to use it. And uh here's the pricing software plans. By the way, I use this not just for technical analysis, but uh they this company is also tied to interactive brokers, just so you know. Okay. Um you see the IB smart routing. So when you open an account through TC2000, you're also essentially tra you can have access to interactive brokers through TC2000. Um and so I strongly recommend it. It's really easy because you can trade right off the charts and uh that's a really big plus. But let me get back to the pricing here. Click on software plans and data. If you click on monthly here, oops, there we go. The basic is $24.99. So, you could try this out for free for a month. I would recommend premium. It's a little bit more expensive, but you get a lot more cool features with it, like real-time scanning, you know, most watched and trending stocks. Morning pre-buzz. What is that? It basically looks at trading activity before the regular session opens. Get chart drawing tools so you can drag between any two points on your chart and preview with a large toolbox or shapes and indicators. Easy scan wizard personal. You can actually write your own formulas and conditions to chart, filter, and sort. I have a proprietary scanner that I use to find some of the strongest stocks. Okay, you can also track uh your stocks with alerts. So, under this level, the premium. All right, let's go back and start off with the SPY here. So, the S&P 500 has been stuck inside this consolidation box for a little while. It's inside the cloud once again. Not good. Down 1.23%. The red line has been above the green line this pretty much the entire time here as price has been consolidating. So there we don't see a major breakdown here in the spy but it's not looking bullish. I can tell you that because re-entering the cloud is not a good sign. It's not a good sign. And if you look at the weekly chart um it looks like we might close under the 9 period again. The last time that happened was back here on June 26th. It did recover but you know it's more and more times where this is happening and uh the other thing on the weekly chart the red line just crossed above the green line. So that's also bearish. It's really important to know how to also hedge your account if you do have long a lot of long positions. How to hedge in this environment. That's another thing that I talk about in my uh weekend membersonly videos that I do guys. So consider becoming a member. Another thing real quick, um, to do that, you just click on the join button here and make sure you select BlueCloud Trader to get access to those member only videos. If you want to get daily trade updates on my trades, become a BlueCloud Legend level member and hit the join button. Make sure you select the correct tab before you hit the join button so you're in the right group. Okay? And there are the videos down below. And once you become a legend level member, what what will happen is there will be a new tab that pops up next to post. We'll say membership. You click on that and that's where you'll find the posts each day. Okay. All right. Let's get back. Let's get back. All right. So, let's look at the Q's next. QQQ has been dropping for two weeks under the 9 period under that green line on the daily chart inside the cloud for a while now. Not looking good, but it's holding up at least above this 68637. The question is, will it bounce? Why is this an important level right here? it price dropped there and then recovered. The buyer stepped in. It's sort of like a defense line. Okay, this is where they're basically going to it happened again right there. Price moved up. It stalled right there again today and it created a reversal candle. So, this, you know, we do need to see the buyers more buyers step in and push it through that cloud once again. It's not happening quite yet, though. So, I'd hold off on adding positions in this ETF until that happens. And the Dow Jones also looking bearish here with the the crossover the the not the faster moving average has crossed into the slower one. It's under the both prices under both. So, that's also not good. What else? Russell 2000. Same thing here. Stuck in a box consolidating. Still nothing really happening. What's Why is this all happening, guys? Why is all of this happening? Well, all you need to do is take a look at the news. Um, you know, Trump is now sl um going to slap sweeping new tariffs on 60 trade partners as global duties expire. He will impose a broad tariff regime on countries around the world, plus the European Union, as temporary tariffs expire. So, at 12:01 a.m. Friday, it's going to go from 10% to 12.5% duties, and those will replace the expiring 10% global tariffs. And so this is not conducive to a strong uh necessarily strong economy. It actually hinders tariffs do not make the markets uh or I'm sorry doesn't make the economy stronger. In fact, we get stuck with the bill because everything becomes more expensive if you're importing products from those countries, right? Anyway, and of course, gas prices is going to go up because the oil prices are starting to go up too, right? the the oil is $100 per gallon now for so that's not good. Okay. Uh VIX is under the cloud. It's under the 200. Uh what it's at a level of 18.7, you know, 20 to 25. That's the range where it starts to get a little bit more scary. If price starts to gap up above this cloud here, uh it's going to be it's not going to be a good side good thing. We may see prices drop further. Um but right now it's stalling right under the cloud and in the 200 FEZ Euro stocks is also dropped into the cloud here. Tenkenson is under the keyen. Nothing really special happening here. It's just consolidating. Gold down 2% also stuck inside this box. We found some support here. Price came up touched the the occasions and dropped today. So that's a really important level around the three, what is that? 360 level. That's the level I'd be watching closely. Silver also dropped 3.45%. Also stuck inside this box. Oil K is under the two under the cloud still. It did break this trend line though and so it's been starting to show some strength. The ADX has been moving up. The green line is above the red line, meaning the positive DI9 is above the negative DI9 with the directional movement index. The ADX9, which is representative of momentum, is increasing to the upside up 1.79% today. So, is it likely to break through? I think so. But we did get a reversal candle here. So, we might see a little slight pullback for a day or two before it probably continues to the upside because there aren't any really positive news going on regarding, you know, oil prices dropping. I don't see that happening anytime, you know, at least not this week for sure and not next week most likely either. Uh, Bitcoin is still under the cloud. It dropped 1.85%. There it is on the daily chart. Ethereum is inside the cloud, so nothing on there. Down 2.56%. Nothing to do here. uh copper copx miners also dropped 2.03% stuck inside this box. Again, that's called consolidation. It's onto the cloud. There's really not a whole lot you want to be doing with that at this point. All right, so that's going to do it for this video, guys. Thank you for watching. Thanks for supporting the channel. Hit that like button. Share this video with someone. You can even hit the hype button after you hit the like button, and that helps to push it out to more people. All right, we are now. Oh, let's see where where are where's his channel at? It's at 31,700 subscribers. Let's hit 32K. I think we can do it this month. And I'll catch you all in the next video. [music] The ichimoku guiding light. Blue cloud trading [music] through the night. Oo. [music] [music]