When To Sell A Stock? Part II - Never A Buy With Sven???

Good day, fellow investors. We continue with our when to sell topic because we have some very sweet trouble here. HPQ up 25% since we discussed it. What to do? TSM up hugely. What to do? And there is also a question on Nike. Is it a buy? And there were also some comments on the quadrant video that we do. There is nothing to buy except my research platform. Red, let's discuss that, too, and see what are the buys. So, the topic of the video, when to sell, when to buy. Let's start immediately with HPQ. It still looks good. The P ratio is still low. The dividend is still there. And now, the question is, should we sell at 25% up or keep on holding? That's the million-dollar question, always. But, the P ratio is still there. The dividend is still there. The business is still there. And now, it is significantly up. When it comes to investing, are you investing or you are buying for the stock just to go up? Because, think about it. The P ratio few months ago was seven. Seven projects a 15% yearly return. If the stock is up 25% 15 25, just a little bit. The P ratio went from seven to nine. It's not explosive. But, the question is, are you buying it to predict the stock market next or not? Because, you might gain 25% put it in something else and lose 25%. That's very possible. A comment here, it seems my strategy is to buy cheap stocks 10 30% and then sell. No, 10 30% no. We are usually at 50% and then we compare it at the fundamental situation. We compare the risk and reward and we manage the portfolio exposure. Let's discuss Archer Daniels Midland that a year ago I said strong buy now at 50 51 years of dividend increases you can retire on much better now at 50 and then I sold that around 70 because it didn't fit my strategy but that's the key you have to see okay what is the strategy my strategy is to know why am I buying a stock before so this was the food cycle it's a cyclical food is cyclical so I buy there I like the 5% dividend 51% of dividend increases and that's okay and if the food cycle doesn't rebound I just hold for the dividend it will grow it will compound over time as it did for the last 40 years however when the dividend goes from 5% to 2.5% that's enough for me you need to make sometimes your money and I sell because I might have other options it's a cyclical compounder ADM so we sold on that so when it comes to when to sell depends on why did you buy did you buy for the market to rebound and then to sell or did you buy for long-term holding you enjoy owning the business 25% doesn't change much as we said 50% up you might then compare to others you might compare it okay what's the risk and reward now and how does it fit my portfolio what's the value received and that's a calculation you practically make before you buy and then you know how to navigate the situation what if HPQ would have gone down 25% would you buy more that's the key answers you need to know before so I have no idea where the stock will go here the question is am I an owner am I a speculator which is still okay value investing is also about that. Sometimes you simply make money, but the key question is why did you buy? Perhaps somebody bought already here. That's impossible to be smart about because that's the stock market. But the key only answer I have is look at the risk and reward of the position now compared to your portfolio and investing goals. What to buy? Nike P ratio of 20 does it expect growth? If you look at the chart, nobody expects nothing here, but at some point it will have to rebound on the dividend, on the brand value, on something. Market cap is just 64 billion. If I buy Nike, am I just buying for the stock to go up? Am I buying for the long-term dividend? What if it goes down? Will I buy more? Those are key questions you need to have answered before buying. TSM, sell, buy? Well, this is now something spectacular, but imagine the guy that bought at 62 and sold at 70. So, you always need to know the business before answering. However, that's not easy. Check this video out here in the card. Warren Buffett has sold 90% of his bought positions. Sometimes lost a lot, but that's Warren Buffett. He's just managing risk first. That's value investing. If you're a value investor, you manage risk first. So, here again, it's about managing risk, playing around it, see how it goes, but I think these ups and downs are impossible to predict. Now, given the AI bubble, this looks like a sell, but again, I can't be smart because I'm not speculating on that. On the comments, still nothing to buy in the quadrant. How do you make money? Okay, there is my research platform to buy now. We will put Netflix here. We have put. So, there is something interesting and I always say, see how it fits you. I own this. See how it fits you. There were some great buys, Samsung, Rubis, Nutrien, Archer Daniels Midland, Google a year and a half ago, but always something to buy and that's also my message. That's not value investing. We are punch card investors. I have been buying one business for the last 2 years, 3 years, holding on to that. That's for me value investing. This is more education. You can do Michael Burry, Lululemon. We discussed that in a video. Novo. Always play around. 3,000 is my intrinsic value for the S&P 500. Don't get confused on the quadrant. So, nothing is a buy unless we buy a platform subscription. You can check my platform. 21-day money-back guarantee. No questions asked. So, for me, something different. For you, something else might be a buy. Energy? Yes, now, but still on the bad side, things like that. Value investing is first about risk. Can I lose? If yes, then I'm not calling something a buy. If I can't lose, like ADM a year and a half ago, long term, food is still necessary, I might say, okay, this is really a buy for me from an absolute perspective. Berkshire, 400 billion cash pile. If that is not enough of a message, I don't know what is. Knowing when to bet, Ray Dalio says, is more important than knowing what bets to make. I could change the quadrant. We might do that just to make it more interesting, but then perhaps even not because this should be relative. No, value investing is all about absolute returns, not relative returns. And then, here the problem is he wants a 20% return. The market isn't giving me that on the whole, but on some specific situations, yes. I think he is focusing too much on price. That's the hugest compliment I have received. As long as it sticks that like that, I am good. Since he probably doesn't hold shares for longer that 6 months, that's not true. I again check my research platform. 21-day money-back guarantee. Questions? Ask me on the Invest with Sven email. So, check the quarterly update. Check my research platform. Value investing is first and foremost about risk. I think a lot of you understand that and we are on a great path here. I'll see you in the next video.