Why Are Markets Crashing Now? Trader Reveals Major Signals For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro

people who want to become popular. And you keep saying that this is a bubble because there are a lot of people who have missed this arguably greatest opportunity to make money in our lifetimes on new technology. And it's unfortunate because um it's been completely wrong. This is the least long we've seen people crude in since way before the war, which means that it probably has legs. I'm pleased to welcome back to the show Jason Shapiro, founder of the Crowded Market Report, and he's been featured in Jack Schwagger's book, Unknown Market Wizards. Jason's been a veteran trader for many decades, and he shares with us his insights on what's crowded, what's overcrowded, and what's not, and what to look forward to ahead for investors and traders alike. Welcome back to the show. I appreciate you coming back, Jason. Thank you for coming back. >> Always pleasure to see you, David. >> Let's just start with what's overcrowded and what's not. So we'll start with stocks then we'll move on to commodities and bonds starting with semiconductors. a huge sell-off as you know from uh a couple couple of weeks ago really from the end of June to now most of the uh major semis have sold off in some way especially o overseas in South Korea where SKH highinex uh dropped considerably the uh the stock dropped about 30 to 40% wiping out almost I believe I read 1.2 2 million accounts in the country got margin called just in the last couple weeks. Incredible story. Anyway, from a technical perspective here, are you looking at the semiconductor stocks as being overcrowded still even despite the drop off or is this a good buying opportunity? I have on my screen the SMH VNX semiconductor ETF. >> My first thought is look at that chart that you have up there. >> Yeah. >> And the comment is major selloff. >> Okay. >> You know what? That's a good point. That's a good point. It's down about 17% from its top. >> Okay. >> Which has 17,000% from its bottom. So, you know, like this, I think, epitomizes the situation quite frankly. >> Yeah. >> Um where people just continue to want to call this a a bubble and continue to want to do this. And >> um did the Korean situation get overcrowded? It 100% did. We saw a lot of data that started coming out about two to three months ago where we were seeing the amount of margin that was being used in Korea on Korean stocks by retail investors certainly was giving numbers that seemed unsustainable at the time. And then we started to see the tape show signs that uh that it was weakening. It started to drop on good news. Um the market went down on Samsung earnings news which were very positive and we started to see signs that it was overcrowded. Um and certainly it was and you would have to argue that it's a lot less overcrowded now. Um because of all those margin calls um I look forward to seeing the new data as it comes out for that. Um it doesn't mean that even if a lot of that has been wiped out that it has to go straight back up. you know, markets, believe it or not, do not have to go straight up or straight down all the time. You know, um the S&P hasn't gone anywhere now since miday, right? Uh markets do in fact trade in trading ranges. And if you get too excited, um during those times, um they're very very dangerous times to try and and trade because you are most likely going to get very bearish on the lows and and get very bullish on the highs and and get whipped around. So, um I don't know that you necessarily have to say, okay, all the speculation has been taken out of Korea, so now let's buy it. >> Um >> I do think that the calls for bubble are in my view, I mean, I think we've been having this conversation now for four years where I've been saying this. >> I I I do think that they continue to be somewhat ridiculous. um you know people who want to become popular it's very easy you you go on YouTube you go on Twitter and you keep saying that this is a bubble because there are a lot of people who have missed this arguably greatest opportunity to make money in our lifetimes on new technology so if they've missed it they don't want to feel stupid they don't want to feel alone so you say, "I'm here for you, honey. It's a bubble." I agree with you. We can all form a little group and talk about what a bubble it is, and we weren't stupid. It's just that we won't get involved in a bubble. It's the easiest thing in the world. And it's unfortunate because um it's been completely wrong. And for those, and I'm not saying the market can't go down, but what I'm saying is that for people who actually spend time rather than just talking bull crap and looking at stupid points on charts and just stick to their same bearishness and their recency bias, if they actually look into and do a little bit of research into what's going on, okay? Um, then they wouldn't be making the the bubble argument. And listen, right now, the market does not trade well. I'm not like mega bullish right here. The market does not trade well. It has not been reacting well to good news. It hasn't reacted well to the Samsung news. It hasn't reacted well to earnings news here. It didn't react well to the Taiwan semi news. It didn't react well to the ASML earnings news. Okay? It's not acting well right now, right? Which is an indication that it's kind of overdone right now, overcooked and and it needs to just hang out for a while or go down for a while. So, I'm not saying you load up right here as a trader, but I just think this bubble idea, it's so overplayed and we've been talking about I've been talking about this with you for four years, right? >> Yeah. >> There's a point I've been making to you for four years and and for four years, every time I say it, people put comments and say Shapiro is an idiot and this is a bubble and if you can't see that then you're blind. Okay, I guess I'm blind. Um, but if you keep fighting this, it's it's it's silly. It's just plain silly. And the people who are are are talking about this, quite frankly, are these people who have never made money trading in their lives. Okay? It's very cool to be bearish, right? Look at Michael Bur, right? The guy's a hero because he was bearish once. He made a ton of money doing it and they made a really cool movie about it and now he has a Substack that makes him $10 million a month because of that. That's all these perma bear dreams. Okay, that's what they want. But if you look at the people who have been perma bearish, all you got to do is look on your feed. Almost every one of them to a man has been horrible, has blown out. Okay, noble. the guy started an ETF that blew out inside of a year, right? And and no disrespect to Noble. He had a long very good career. Okay? But these people have been wrong is my point. All right? Um the other ones, I'm not going to get into the names cuz it's not very nice. But you can see them. They've been calling the same crash now for four years at least. And they and they've just been incredibly inaccurate about it. And they're missing I think that they're missing, as I've been saying, the forest for the trees. So, uh, just believing in that is silly. Does it mean that the market can't go down? Look, it just went down. The semis just went down, okay, by a lot. Some of these stocks went down 30 35%. It's a pretty good drop. Except they were up 700% first. Okay. So, you know, it's just like you said, look at this chart. Oh, it's it's down a lot. Yeah, it's down a lot because it's it's up a lot. That's why, you know, it's up by a hell of a lot more than it's down. So, that's my first thing. All right. Um, now having said that, as I say, I do think the markets are are not trading very well right here, right this minute. I don't think is a time to be super long and super bullish because the the tape is not trading well. >> Before we continue with the video, I'd like to tell you about a company in the healthcare segment that some investors are starting to watch a little more closely. Our sponsor today, Kexo Sciences, that's taker CNXU on the NASDAQ, is developing a regenerative tissue platform aimed at the demand emerging alongside GLP1 weight loss drugs. 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Last time we had this uh magnitude of upward movement followed by an immediate retracement was in 2000 the dotcom bubble. Um when you look at this and you say to yourself, well, I'm not super be bullish right now. Uh are you are are you are you looking at a chart like this and saying to yourself, well, there's probably more downside to go even from current levels due to how it's performed historically. Or do you look at this and say, "Well, most of the froth has now been, you know, dealt with by this correction here, and it's probably safe to at least wait for what it's about to do and consider getting in." >> Necessarily look at it either way, either one of those ways. I look at it with how is the stock trading relative to what it should be doing. It should be weak here because these type of stocks are weak here. And so, it's doing that. When it can trade strong in the face of those stocks being weak, then I'll be looking to buy. when it can trade strong in the face of maybe what should be the stock trading week then I will be looking to buy when it t tells me I don't tell the market what it should do because I have no idea what it's going to do all right I I don't have the luxury to do that because I'm not a analyst I am a trader I have real money at stake so I cannot bully the market and tell it what it should do I have to let the market tell me what it is doing and trade it off of that, right? And get into riskreward situations and know where my stop should be and all that. So, what I would do is I would wait until Intel is telling me that Intel is a buy. I'm not going to base it off of 2000. This is not 2000. This is 2026. All right? And anyone who thinks it is 2000, I personally think is being very foolish. Right? This is all this recency bias that people are falling victim to and have been falling victim to and have been getting killed because of it and have been missing out. >> Use this as a thought exercise, Jason. What would convince you hypothetically that this would be a repeat of the first.com bubble? You're looking at the news and the charts and the stats and the movements and the sentiment and then you come to the conclusion, yeah, this is definitely the start of another, you know, com bust or whatever, AI bust, whatever you want to call it. What would that be? >> I would need to see there would be much more froth in the participation. Okay, I'd trade it through the dot bubble. All right, we are not seeing the froth and participation that we saw then in my opinion. And let's keep in mind, just like anybody else, my opinion can be wrong, okay? I'm the first one to admit that. And I don't mind when my opinion is wrong. As long as I don't lose money, I don't care. I'm not long these stocks right here. I'm not long the NASDAQ right here. If the NASDAQ crashes 70% tomorrow, I'm not going to lose dime one. Okay? And that's what's important to me. But if you're asking me my opinion, I do not think that this is 2000 because the froth in 2000 from a participation standpoint was much much much more than this. All right? I hear more people talking bubble here than I hear people talking bull market here. In 2000, that was not the case. I can tell you because I have many things that I wrote back then where I was saying bubble. And by the way, I was saying bubble mid1 1999 just to be honest here. and I got run over. Okay, the NASDAQ went up another 60% from mid 999 until 2000. Okay, so I'm not saying I was a genius. I said bubble. No, I'm saying I was an idiot. I said bubble. I got it right and I lost money, right? Which is the opposite of what I try to do now. Now I try to not lose money no matter if I'm right or wrong. Okay. But what I'm saying is I was saying bubble then because everywhere I went, every person I knew was talking about the stock market and how much money they were making in the stock market and how they were making money in AOL and Pets.com and you know all these stocks and there was no way they could go down. Every time I told them that I thought that they were ridiculous, they just laughed me out of the room. If I go out there and say bubble now, I don't get laughed out of the room. I get patted on the back for being smart. That is different than 2000. So for me for me to say that it's a bubble, I would have to say a lot more participation. Now we did get that in Korea. I do think we saw that in Korea. Um and we're going to find out how much of that has been um has been taken out. >> I'm going to come back to the tech stocks in just a bit. But just to jump I I jump on that note. It just made me think of this Bitcoin. Okay. Uh using my own show and others as a gauge. I I can tell you from personal experience that talking about Bitcoin and um the crypto space overall has gotten me fewer clicks than maybe a year or two years ago. Uh I think the same can be said for other crypto channels, many of whom have pivoted to talking about a mix of macro and geopolitics as well as crypto by the way >> uh to maintain their viewership. >> Uh people are just not interested in the in in in the Bitcoin crypto conference. I was in a you know Miami uh consensus uh the conference in May and it was mostly guys in suits right large institutional investors JP Morgan had a stand there for example I'm just saying that the retail crowd that you saw in Miami a couple years ago that's not there anymore and u >> I wonder you know you're reading all this >> look how all of a sudden look how all of a sudden in the last few weeks Bitcoin has started to trade much better. Yeah, >> right. They they've kind of given up on it here. And suddenly it trades much better. Suddenly the things that were theoretically narrative-wise making it go down are no longer making it go down because everyone's giving up on it. That's what I talk about in terms of participation and crowdedness and all that. Um yeah, they don't care anymore. It's not exciting anymore. And and and you you nailed it. People have had to switch to maintain their audience. Okay? It's disgusting in my view. Look, I have an audience. I don't switch what I'm talking about to maintain my audience. I don't start suddenly pushing funded accounts because I want to get a bigger audience. Okay? I do what I do. If you like it, great. And if you don't, then don't watch. I don't care. Okay? I'm trying to help people. People that want to maintain viewership, yeah, they have to switch from this hot thing to that hot thing to the other hot thing. And that's why they're a huge fade. And I've said it a million times, there's nothing that gets you more viewership than bear porn. Get on here and be a bear. Get on here and talk about the bubble. Get on here and say that, you know, these stocks are going to go down, you know, 70 80%. And you get tons and tons of views. No question about it. Right? Like I say, the whole Michael Bur thing, people don't understand that Michael like they don't Michael Bur the big short. Great. Nobody makes the movie The Big Long. Okay. If Michael Bur had taken the the same amount of money and the same amount of leverage and bought the stock market in 2009, >> he would have made multiples of the amount of money he made shorting it in 2008 right? But no one cares about that because that's not exciting. That that's boring. The big long is boring. The big short is exciting. You want to be excited? Great. >> Be excited. You want to make money? >> Be logical. >> So, so, so is Bitcoin still underappreciated right now? You think >> still underappreciated? >> You know, like the sentiment, it's still weak. Do you think it's like >> I I personally think that Bitcoin is going to be and again this is just my opinion. Um but you know we talked about this I think last time that Bitcoin has basically come down in in in two. There's those who say it's going to a million and there's those who say it's going to zero and there's not a lot in between. And the reality is it's a 99.999% chance. It's somewhere in between. I I think Bitcoin is going to be just like every other asset in the history of the world. Sometimes it's going to be in a bull market, sometimes going to be in a bare market, you know, and it's going to swing and the emotions are going to swing with that. When everybody gets too bearish, it's going to go up. And when everybody gets too bullish, it's going to go down. That that that's my personal view on Bitcoin. I'm not an expert on Bitcoin. I'm not going to get into how it's the only answer to the fiat currency scam and all that stuff. It may be okay. I don't have a problem with that argument, but I don't trade based on fundamental arguments like that. I I trade based on market action and what market is telling me. So, you know, that's my my view on Bitcoin. It certainly got to the point where like you say, all of a sudden, nobody cares anymore. Okay. That's that's when the riskreward improves. >> That's not a buy signal to you though, the fact that no one's talking about it. >> Not many people. relative to being a sell signal, it absolutely is a buy signal. >> All right. What do you think is the most overcrowded trade right now, if not the AI sector? >> Um, some of the currency markets I I find to be very over overcrowded here. Um, the long dollar trade has become overcrowded again. Okay. Um, the Canadian dollar short, right, has become overcrowded. The New Zealand dollar short has become overcrowded. Um those to me h have become the most overcrowded trades. I think that uh I think the most interesting dynamic right now um based on the whole fundamental war thing in Iran is that we had that war thing and those who tried to buy crude because of it ended up getting burned, right? And those who tried to short stock market because of it ended up getting burned. Right? The theory was crude was going to go up. Interest rates were going to which was going to force interest rates up which was going to force the stock market down. Right? Crude went up and then it went right back down in everybody's face. And if you look on July 1st, okay, The Economist came out on July 1st with an article admitting that they were wrong about crude oil. Right? Their whole call was that crude oil was going to go up. Um it didn't matter if the war came to end, it was too late. The infrastructure had gotten hit already. The whole thing was a problem. And crude oil was going to do nothing but go up no matter what. That's what they were saying as the war wore wore on. That's what they said on July 1st. They said, "Look, we were wrong. We can admit it. We were wrong." >> And then it went up. >> That was the exact low for crude. July 1. I'm not making this up. No, you're not. >> Look on the chart. See that July 1st was the low, okay? And look up The Economist apologizing for being wrong about crude oil, and you'll see that that article came out on July 1st. you you know what it is is the uh the they have these monthly publication schedules. So that article was probably written a couple weeks prior to that. Um that that's why there's such a contrary. >> All I'm saying was all I'm saying was it came out on July 1st and that was a low. So my point being >> is not to rag on the economist. My point being as as a >> a as a a measure of sentiment, right? Um so now the war got worse again but this time with recency bias I have felt this time people don't want to get burned again. Oh I bought crude the last time the war got bad and all I did was get burned and this time they don't want to do it. So this time of course crude is going it's going up. It's all about the participation. If everybody buys it then it can't go up. If nobody buys it then there's plenty of room for it to go up. Right? So this is what makes me nervous about the market is I think people are underappreciating the fact that crude could go a lot higher which means at the same time if we go back to the original premise which means they are underappreciating the fact that interest rates could go higher if we look today suddenly two years are on new highs 5 years on new highs 10 years are on new highs 30 years are almost on new highs it's dangerous um and then that becomes you know and normally what I would say is despite crude going up despite interest rates going up the stock market is actually holding in very well. And normally I would say that that's a sign that the stock market is strong. And I would still be careful to say that's wrong. But we might be in a case where maybe it's strong because nobody is believing that crude can go up. Nobody's believing that interest rates are going to go up this time because they got burnt making those bets last time. I think that's the danger here. I wouldn't short stocks because of that because I don't fight the tape, right? I would be long crude because crude is saying is trading very well, right? >> Maybe maybe I'm just offering a theory here. Maybe crude isn't as important as um it used to be for determining the S&P 500's earnings. By the way, the S&P 500 is, as you know, heavily weighted in tech. Uh tech isn't really dependent on the price of crude to maintain their margins. So maybe it doesn't really affect earnings. Yeah. No, I think not only is crude, but I don't think interest rates are that matter that much for these stock, you know, a company that's growing at 100% a quarter, you know, if interest rates go from 4 and a half to 4.8% like who cares, you know, I mean, so I think you're right. It affects more Dow type of stuff, um, more Russell type of stuff, right? I would argue that it does, but >> at what point does that hasn't really been the case? you know, the Dow has been outperforming, you know, so the market, the stock market in particular the last couple months has been very very difficult to read and and that's because we're in a trading range and trading ranges are always very difficult to read. That's what trading ranges do. They whip you around, you know. >> Is right now a rotation away from tech and back into energy. Is that the play right now today? >> That's certainly what people are doing. >> Yeah. and and how you know you're you're looking at WTI uh where Brent and it looks like things move based on the situation in the Middle East. How do you trade a market like that that reacts based on news, announcements, events rather than purely sentiment and um crowded crowdedness alone? >> Well, I think all markets trade on those things. They all trade on crowdedness and sentiment and then and then news flow. I mean that's the the the question is not the news. The question is what is the market reaction to the news, right? And that's going to be a function of sentiment and and positioning, right? If everybody is too bearish and too short, then the news can come out bearish and the market will go up anyway. And that's the sign where the risk reward is in your favor, right? And same thing on the other side. The news can come out bullish if everybody's already long. And this is what happened with crude, right? Um the the greatest example I still say was April 2nd. Um the stock market had been coming down like we were saying the war was forcing crude up was forcing interest rates up was forcing the stock market down. That was the narrative. Well on April 2nd crude went up over 10% on the day and the stock market closed up that day. Right? So it didn't matter anymore. The news flow didn't matter anymore because everybody had already gotten too short at the stock market. From that point on, the stock market went straight up. You know, did did I claim to know that the stock market was going to go up as far and as fast as it did after April 2nd? No. But I did point out the fact that look, the stock market just went up on a day when crude was up over 10%. And that's been the main driver, right? So that's an indication of where the it wasn't the news, it was the reaction to the news. So I think that's what's important is the reaction to the news. >> Okay? We're not going to be able to predict the news. We're not going to know what what Donald Trump is going to come out with in 2 hours about the war that he's going to taco, he's going to bomb, blow up or whatever he's going to do. We're not going to know unless we pay that hundred grand extra to get the first tweet, right? >> Um, >> you're not going to buy that, are you? >> No. I I could care I could care less. Okay. I could care less about getting that news first. I don't care what the news is. Okay. I I I care what the reaction I care what the reaction is. >> You know what? Okay, let's talk about reaction to the news. So, the US Iran ceasefire collapsed in early July. And what was interesting to me is that if you recall prior to the ceasefire having been broken, uh oil was going down um on the on the expectation of a ceasefire, but it didn't immediately go all the way back up to 100 when it was broken. Basically, when the straight of horses closed, it was at around 100, right? Expectations of reopening pushed oil back down towards 60, you know, 65 bucks on the WTI. >> Mhm. >> But then immediately after the straight reclosed, if you want to use the word reclosed, it didn't shoot back up to 100. In other words, the reaction was relatively muted. What does that tell you about expectations? >> Again, I I think it goes back to what I was talking about before. Uh I think it was recency bias. Okay. >> Yeah. >> And I I talked about it as that was happening. First of all, >> crude bottoms on July 1st. Okay. >> Um and then it went up for next few days and then the ceasefire was declared dead. Okay. So you talk about paying Donald Trump the extra 100 grand. You don't need to because the market was telling you first, right? Um second of all, I think it's the recency bias, right? Uh, nobody again I if you got long crude because of the Iran war, you got burned, right? So, you're not going to do that again, right? You're not going to do it again. The reason you got burned is because too many people got long crew. The positioning got too much. The crowdedness got too much, so it couldn't go up anymore. This time, that's not the case. This is the least long we've seen people crude in since way before the war, right? And it doesn't appear to me to this point the data hasn't shown that anyone is is chasing this higher because they don't want to get burned again, right? Which means that it probably has legs. And you say that it hasn't gone straight to 100, but I mean it's it's gone from 68 or so back to 87 88, right? >> Yeah. >> So, it's working its way. It's not going to go there in a day, but it's working right to me. This one is much more sustainable than the last one. >> Okay, let's take a look at uh much more sustainable than the last one. That's a key point. Let's take a look now at gold. Uh sentiment here is pretty weak based on my personal observation and talking to a lot of people in the space. I've gone to conferences uh where miners are literally struggling to raise capital despite the fact that they were raising a lot of capital at exactly $4,000 gold back in November October. So at the same price point they're struggling now versus before just because of the direction of the price. What does that tell you? >> What do you think it tells me? >> I mean >> recency bias. >> Yeah. Gold suddenly. Okay. Suddenly, it it's been horrible, right? We know that um since January, it had that huge spike in January and then it sold off and then it tried to get close back to those highs again. It failed and and it's just been in a bare market really since January. Has not traded well. um on the back of what the narrative was was that interest rates were going higher and higher interest rates meant bad news for assets like gold and silver. Well, suddenly just in the last few days, gold is shrugging that off, right? Like I said, interest rates are making new highs here and gold stopped making new lows and so did silver and so did Bitcoin. And this was the excuses that we were hearing um for why those things were going down uh in in the first half of the year was because higher interest rates um and even oh well central banks can't buy gold anymore because they have to buy oil you know that whole China central bank has to buy oil to fill up the reserves now so they can't buy gold. I'm not going to say whether these things are true or not. I'm just saying this is a narrative that we were hearing. Well oil's going back up. interest rates are going back up and gold stopped going down and silver stopped going down and Bitcoin stopped going down. So again, the tape is starting to change here and I think that's important right at a time when you are telling me things like nobody wants to finance gold anymore. >> Mhm. >> So there you have it. >> Yeah, that's interesting. That's interesting. I mean, I know you don't pick tops and bottoms here, but people look for consolidating patterns all the time. You know, how do you approach that topic? >> What do you mean by consolidating patterns? >> People say, "Look, let's take gold for example. It's been trading around 4,000, consolidating around 4,000. That means it's bottoming out. That means it's waiting for a breakout." Uh, >> I don't approach it that way at all. >> Okay? I approach it just like we just spoke about, right? What has the narrative been >> and where does that narrative break down? Right? Where does the market start saying I'm not agreeing with the narrative anymore? I want to go with the market and against the narrative and it takes time to build the narrative. And to say I don't pick turns is actually that is what I do and that's what turns look like when the market stops reacting to what has been the major narrative. >> I see >> that's what turns look like and that's what I'm talking about with gold here. Does it guarantee that that was the low for gold? Of course not. But it gives you good riskreward. You can be long here. If it takes out a new low, well then it wasn't the turn. So you stop out. But if it was the new low, if that was the low, well then you got a long way up. That's what this whole game is about. Riskreward. That's what it's about. Getting into situations where you can make a lot of money if it works and and and lose a very small amount of money if it doesn't work because you're not every trade's not going to work. So, let's lose a small amount on the ones that don't. Let's make a lot on the ones that do. >> Yeah. Generally speaking, does it matter for you how long an asset stays around a certain price level? Let's just take gold. It's on my screen. >> Yeah. It's been It was back in no uh 2015, right? It was around $3,200. $3,300 for about a year. >> Yeah. >> Um >> back in the uh since the 1981 crash, it was basically hovering around 300 bucks to four 500 bucks for 20 years, >> you know, gone a bit lower, gone a bit higher. >> It doesn't it doesn't indicate anything to you. >> No. by itself >> for me and my trading process and the way that I handle the markets and and try to look for riskreward. No, it means nothing to me. >> Okay. Has anything uh speaking of turns, has anything shifted in sentiment from a couple months ago besides what we talked about so far with gold and Bitcoin um and uh also with the DXY which you considered overcrowded right now? >> No, I think that kind of covers it all. We covered sort of the stocks, we covered the energy, we covered the metals, we covered a little bit of bonds, we covered some of the dollar. So, yeah, I I think that >> the fact that everyone's talking about higher interest rates and that's already factored into the CME Fedash tool. Um, does that make you want to start going long on bonds right now? >> Is everybody talking about higher interest rates? I don't know. You tell me. You talk to a lot more people than I do. >> Yeah. Well, on my show at least, uh, the Bank of America, let's just taking taking financial institutions as an example, have actually used the expectations for higher interest rates like you talked about to lower their gold forecast for the rest of the year. And >> uh, once big banks start doing that, it means the expectations kind of baked in. So, I'm wondering if that's something you're looking at as a turning indicator for >> I think again I think that means it's baked into gold. >> Okay. >> Which is why gold is no longer, you know, is it baked in? How do we know? Well, how does the market react to it? That's how we know, right? And clearly gold has stopped reacting negatively to that idea. So rather than try and buy bonds, I would rather buy gold. >> Yeah. You mentioned stop out when things don't go your way. So tell us about your risk management strategy and how you decide when to stop out of things. >> My um process by definition is a turnpicking process. So if I find that people are way too short something, I am looking to get long. I don't get long just because of that. I get long when the market confirms what I'm thinking. And the market confirming what I'm thinking, as we just talked about, is what is the narrative that's been driving this thing down? What is the narrative that has been getting everybody too short? Okay. And when does the market stop reacting poorly to that narrative? on the day that it stops reacting poorly to that narrative. So, here we go. Gold. Let's say I find that people are way too short gold. I want to get long it. What has been driving it? It's been driven by exactly what you just said, right? The idea that interest rates were going to go higher and that was going to be bad for gold. Okay. And that has been working. And all of a sudden, 4 days ago, interest rates went higher and gold didn't go down anymore. It did go down and then it closed up on the day for no reason. So, I would get long there. That's the turn, the potential turn. If it takes out that low, then by definition, it is not a turn. If we make a new low, then the market has not turned, right? So, if my theory is that's the turn, well, then if we make a new low, then it's not the turn, then I get out. That and that's my risk, right? So, I know where I'm getting in. I know where I'm getting out if I'm going to get stopped. So I know how much I'm risking. So therefore I I I invest that much so that I risk a certain percentage of my portfolio which you can target based on the volatility you want. For me I risk 70 basis points of my portfolio on a single trade which gets me to the volatility that I want which is lower than what most people want. But that's just how I am. I'm an old man. Um so that's how I handle my risk. And if it works and ends up being right well then I ride it until these conditions no longer exist. until I find that people are no longer crowded short and people are no longer super bearish and then I get out and I take my profit. How >> how do you confirm that something isn't turning the way you expect it to? So, let's say your long goal, you expect uh you expect it to turn and then it goes down um even though people aren't talking about it enough. Let's just say that happens. Okay. Does it have to go down a certain percentage or does it have to stay down for a certain amount of time before you start realizing, okay, that confirmation, that turn isn't here and you should get out and >> it has to stop performing poorly >> on news that supports the narrative. >> Okay? >> So, if the narrative is gold is going down because interest rates are going higher and then interest rates go higher and gold can no longer go down, that's it for me. It's not a question of I am long gold because I think people are too short. No, I'm not getting long gold until the market does that confirmation. So I need that. That's how the confirmation looks. Whether that takes a day, a week, a month, a year, or a decade, doesn't matter to me. Okay? But I will wait until that confirmation happens. I need the market to confirm my thoughts before I will do anything. And I would say that no matter how you trade, you have to do that. I don't care what your thoughts are. It's a bubble. >> Okay, great. >> Let's take oil for example. Uh people have some people have told me I've heard this on other channels as well. Perhaps the oil market has become started to become a little less s like more desensitized so to speak to Trump's announcement. So let's say every time he announces a peace deal or let's say every time he announces just today for example he announced that he's going to bomb Iranian infrastructure if more tankers in the straight of Hormuz will be hit by the Iranians. Okay. Now did oil move up on that? Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. But have you noticed oil reacting less and less to Trump's announcements either way? >> I mean it was up 3%. >> Yeah. >> Um but certainly it gets to a point, you know, where Trump's announcements become uh desensitized because just like anything boy who cried wolf, you know, there comes a certain point where no one's going to listen to it anymore, you know. >> So, as a trader, how do you differentiate between a failed confirmation versus just news that's not important anymore? >> Yeah, that's a tough one. >> Very tough one. you have to sort of pay attention to how to how the stuff has been reacting to it, you know. But like I say, um now that people have become des they weren't saying that the oil market was desensitized back in, you know, February, March, April, they're saying it now. That's the difference, right? When they're not saying it is when it became desensitized. Now that they are saying it, and now oil is going up again. I what we've been talking about today, right? So, this is what I'm saying. There's a difference. There's a difference based on positioning, based on sentiment. Two markets, same fundamentals, same sort of news driving it react differently based on what the current sentiment and positioning is. >> All right. We've talked about uh stocks, Bitcoin, gold, rates, oil trading in general. Well, tell us about uh your channel, what you're following now, and what we can expect for your next um video or um or or uh any any announcements you're making. >> Any announcements? I mean, look, we do a weekly newsletter. Um and then on top of that, I I I try to do at least one video. Well, I mean, we do a daily video every day. Market close kind of five minute. Hey, here's the things that we're looking at and here's how they're acting and here's how markets are reacting to news. Like I say, not here's my prediction for the news. Here was the news and here's how the market reacted and was there any surprise there and is that giving us any message? That's kind of what the end of day videos focus on. I do a weekly video where I try to do all kinds of different subjects. Sometimes I'll interview people that we find interesting. Um, sometimes I'll talk about different market things, things that come up on our Discord, you know, that are are bothering me, you know. I think I'm going to do a video this week about um how to try to avoid um internet scams when it comes to market gurus and all that because we've had a number of people join um who come on and and tell me their stories about hey I joined this guy's site, I joined that guy's site and they totally fooled me and I totally got scammed and I totally lost money and I wish I could have avoided that. So I'm seeing a lot of the behavior for how people fall for that. So I might do a video this week about about that. And I think, you know, it's just these subjects that come up. It's interesting because we have a lot of people on our Discord and a lot of people that communicate with me. So, I get a good feel for what people are feeling and thinking and I try to do videos every week that are along those lines cuz if they're feeling and thinking that, then a lot of people are probably feeling and thinking that. So, you know, this is more of a education of how to trade thing. I'm not inviting people on here by saying Jason Shapiro is the greatest trader that ever lived and all you have to do is follow the trades that he does and you're going to make millions of dollars. That's not the point here. I try to tell people not to do that. I the idea is we're trying to educate people on what how the market actually works, how to find good riskreward, what trading really is about. And can you use some of the lessons that I teach in my trading to help you do that? Yes. But you can learn lessons from other good traders as well and put them all together and and become a better trader, a much more disciplined trader. That that's really the message we're trying to get through. It's not sexy. I'm not on there live day trading room, okay? Giving live day trades that you can, you know, copy trade and get a funded account. You know, that's not what we're about. I know that that's a very popular subject. What I always tell the people that want to do that stuff is please go ahead and do that. And after you blow out, if you're still interested in actually trading and actually getting involved in the market and actually making money over time, then come and join us because I'm of no value to you until you learn those lessons. I I can't teach I can't teach a 22-y old kid that that knows everything um anything. So, um once you struggle, that'd be a good time to come and and hopefully learn if if you're still interested. So, >> excellent. Thank you so much, Jason. We'll put the links to your work down below, so people should check that out. Appreciate your time. We'll speak next time. Take care. >> Always great talking to you, David. >> Always great to have you. Thank you for watching. Please do like and subscribe. Follow Jason. Links down below.