The Fed Dropped a BOMBSHELL! Rate Hikes COMING!🤯

So, the Fed kept rates steady, which are you guys surprised? I'm not surprised. Could you imagine, you know, Trump appointed Kevin Warsh, and one of the first things he does is hike rates? Could you imagine? That would be a disaster. So, the Fed kept rates steady, but we are expecting a rate hike by the end of 2026. So, we have to break down everything that you need to know. We're going to talk about the stock market, how it's reacting, and break down a couple stocks I'm watching. So, guys, hit the like button. Make sure to subscribe. Join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my actual portfolio updates, my trades, investments, how I trade options, mainly sell options. And if you want to be a part of my private Discord, it's all linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stossurfest.com/patreon. And now, let's dive into it. So, the overall market right now is giving back gains, and we weren't even up much at all. But, initially, we did spike when the meeting started, right? Now, we're back down, and the Qs are down. Every index is down. Uh the Qs are down over 3/4 of a percent, and you can see here the pump, um during the meeting. Now, it's dumping aggressively. So, the Qs are down almost 1%. The S&P's down, let's see, guys, roughly the same, just under 1%. The Dow Jones is down the most by far, man. Holy smokes. Dow's down almost 2%, 1.8 down, as the Russell's down just over 1%. And again, the rates are are being held steady, but we are seeing a lot of the uh the committee actually wanting a hike. Through I think three members wanted a hike this meeting, and we're going to get a hike here over the coming months, and that's why the market potentially is reacting um the way it is. Let me pull this up right now. Give me a second, guys. Uh, bear with me. Hold on a second. There we go. So, the divided Fed holds interest rates steady, but three members voted to hike. I'm pretty sure it was a 9-3 uh vote. If we zoom in here, guys, on Wednesday, the Fed voted to hold its its um you know, key interest rate steady, but not without opposition from three officials who have expressed concern over inflation and wanted to hike. Even though the last CPI print, especially core CPI, was very good. Three members still want to hike rates, and they wanted to hike rates this meeting. Again, could you imagine if Warsh did that, you know, in his second uh press conference as the Federal Reserve Chairman after Trump appointed him? And Trump wants rate uh rate cuts. I mean, if it were up to Trump, we would be at 0% right now, guys. And inflation would be running rampant. I mean, it would be it would be a disaster, you know? I'm all for, you know, cutting rates, but not at the expense of inflation going ballistic in the middle of, you know, oil going up and the conflict in the Middle East. If if there wasn't a conflict in the Middle East, right? If oil wasn't at 80 a barrel, if it was still at 50, whatever the heck it was before, um you know, maybe Trump could have got the rate cuts he wanted now. Um ultimately, I think we'll get rate cuts in '27, '28. Uh but, not now. Not now, which we originally thought in '26 we would get rate cuts. Um not now. We can see the committee voted 9-3 to leave the uh the Fed funds rate in a range between 3 and 1/2 and 3.75% and all the no votes came from regional presidents. Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas who had been the most explicit about the need for higher rates to address inflation that has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than 5 years. So, inflation has come down, right? But, it's still above that 2% target. We got close to it. Um and and obviously now inflation is coming back up for obvious reasons. And this shows you right here uh the Fed funds rate over the last what? 20, 25 years. It was at 6% here back in 2000. Then it went down to 1% up to about 5% before uh the Great Recession. Then it was at zero for a while. I mean, for years guys years. Um then it went up to about what? Two 2.3 uh back before 2020. I remember that. That was Christmas time roughly. We started getting those hikes. Um well, we were for a while back then. That was 8 years ago. Um then it went to zero for a little bit after the pandemic. And obviously here we are. Um so, we're starting to see rates come down. But, the Fed, some of them are like, "Yo, slow down." Three members are like, "Slow down. We need to hike." No cuts in sight, guys. No cuts in sight. And the market I mean, the market has known that. Let's be honest. But, now the fact that we're getting a hike this year, um you know, the market's starting to digest that. And the market kind of knew that as well. I mean, it's not like it's out of left field. Oh, we're getting a hike this year. And by the way, it's only going to be a 25 basis point hike most likely. Um which things might change. Uh we can see right here it does say the full committee in June penciled in 1/4 percentage point increase by the end of 2026. We don't know when. We don't know when. And that is subject to change. But, as of now, um we're getting that one quarter percentage point increase by the end of the year. I mean, look, a lot of people are freaking out about inflation. Governor Christopher Waller voiced worries recently over inflation saying higher rates could be necessary if more progress isn't made. However, he voted in favor of a hold at this meeting, which I agree. If I was in the Fed, guys, I'm voting hold. You know, what do I know, right? I mean, I'm I'm not in the FOMC, but [laughter] you know, I I agree with that. And for his part, Waller has called inflation a choice, and he repeatedly stressed the importance of getting prices in check during recent hearings on Capitol Hill. So, that's where we're at. That's where we're at, guys. Rates are steady, no hike or cut. I mean, no no cuts are in sight, but nothing happened this quarter, or not this quarter, but this go around, and that's not going to be the case for uh for the rest of the year. We're going to get a hike at some point unless magically the conflict in Iran ends, oil tanks, inflation, you know, we got a couple of good prints in a row, which that's probably not going to happen. That's not the reality. The the damage has been done. People I mean, people know this, but some people don't realize you know, the effect of high oil prices for months in a row. I mean, it's not like oil has been high for a month, then it tanked, and we're back to you know, normal. Oil's been inflated since February, the end of February heading into March. Brent literally hit 119 in early March. And guys, hello, news flash, it is now almost August, literally. So, [laughter] we're talking Jeez, man, I'm I'm just realizing how long it's been myself. I I I obviously I knew it's been months, but man, if you really think about it, oil's been up for five freaking months. That's going to have a you know, lasting impact on inflation, on the market, on a lot of you know, it's going to hike prices for a lot of things. We're feeling it not only at the pump, right? But think about it, all these goods that need to be transported via you know, ground transportation, planes, everything's going up in price. The cost of doing business is going up in price, and guess who that that gets trickled down to, the consumer, right? So, it's not like again, oil's been up for a month, it's been up for almost five months. This is going to have a lasting impact on inflation, on the economy, and it's not something that obviously the Fed's taking lightly, and it's not something that the Fed can fix in a month, you know, it takes time. It's going to take time, and that's why they're again hiking rates, keeping rates steady. The last thing they're going to do is cut rates and have inflation go through the freaking roof. That's the last thing they're going to do, guys, in my opinion. What do you guys think? Uh but yeah, that's a quick rundown on the Federal Reserve, what happened today, and look, the overall market is getting clapped. I mean, this is not looking good. Now the Dow's down over 2%. Dow's getting destroyed, 2.2% down. The Q's are now down 1 and 1/2% falling off a cliff. Look at this selling we've seen since 3:00 p.m. Over the last 30-40 minutes, market is off a cliff. Spy, you name it. The volatility index is going up. Stocks like Tesla are crashing. I mean, this stock, guys, oh my goodness, man. Tesla is in the 200s again. This stock was just at what, 400 literally? I'm not kidding, 2 weeks ago. We were at 400, now we're at 298, and I bought some Tesla, right? You guys know that. Full disclosure, I'm long. I bought some after the report at 333, and I bought some earlier this week, I think at 306. So, I'm buying here, but it's pain. It's pure pain in the short term, but of course, you got to look long term. That's the name of the game. Uh but it is rough today, guys. AI stocks are getting destroyed. Um Coherent, Micron, Nvidia, Intel, Nvidia. I mean, Nvidia's not as bad. Um it's holding up holding up over 190, but for how much longer, you know? Who knows? We have Microsoft and Meta after the bell. Maybe they save the market, maybe. Uh but I just don't see it happening. I think if Meta raises CapEx again, this stock's going to tank. It's going to go down. That's why I sold out of Meta for now yesterday. You guys probably saw that I sold out of Meta. I sold out of um a few shares of Robinhood. I sold out of some shares of my speculative holding XNET, and I raised some cash, and I bought some uh NextEra Energy, you know, more stable, safe utility play, and I'm just riding out the storm, you know? It's It's It's been a rough couple weeks for AI and tech stocks. Uh I'm I mean, look, I'm not in memory right now, so I'm not feeling it. I'm sure as much as some of you guys. I'm not in any Neo clouds, either. Um I am in GLW. That's the one that I'm in that has gotten destroyed, but other than that, uh well, I guess Tesla, too. Other than Tesla and GLW, I'm not doing that bad recently. Uh but man, it's People are feeling it. People are feeling it. It is rough. Um and you just got to ride the storm, and we'll see how earnings go. But don't be surprised if earnings are strong out of Meta and Microsoft, and the stock still go down. That's the market we're in. Um and of course, I'll cover their earnings probably in a video tonight, guys. Pay attention to that. Make sure to subscribe. And uh, yeah, the last thing you want to do now is panic sell. Even though you're hearing everyone say, "We're in a bear market, you know, get out, do this, do that." Don't do that. Don't do that. Do the opposite of what the crowd's doing. Right now, the crowd's panicking, selling, freaking out. Uh, but the best thing you can do is hold. I say that all the time, and I'm going to continue to say it. So, guys, let me know your thoughts in the comments. Hit the like button, subscribe, join my Patreon if you want to keep up with my portfolio updates, trades, investments, private Discord. All that's linked down below, pinned in the comments, or go to stasherfest.com/patreon. And with that being said, I'll see you guys later.