Next Asset To 'Come Down Hard'; Brace For Major Moves Warns Investor | Florian Grummes

whether the silver price goes parabolic or the semiconductors or Bitcoin at some point. Yeah, it it comes comes down hard. It's been a a hefty uh and deep correction, but it was also a necessary and a healthy correction. I don't think that gold has lost its safe haven role or anything. What's the worst case here for gold? Maybe another. We're back with Florian Gumis, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting. on the agenda today, the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, what is going on with gold and silver and Bitcoin met uh the uh the markets overall. Florian Gomez covers all of these topics and more. Welcome back to the show, Florian. Good to see you again, >> David. My friend, it's good to see you. Thanks for having me. >> Yes, my friend. You are uh well, you were living in Dubai and currently you're not there. We can talk about the situation in Iran and the Middle East and how that's impacting uh markets. The Federal Reserve yesterday met uh we're speaking today on July 30th and the FOMC decided to keep rates steady. It was discussed whether or not the recent inflation um shock that uh was reflected in the CPI is a symptom of higher inflation that's persistent or higher inflation that came from a supply shock. And I'll play for you a clip and show show you Kevin Wars's answer. But what is your interpretation of why CPI was higher and whether or not CPI will stay higher? >> Well, I mean there's uh no secret about the the rising oil prices overall since the beginning of the year and especially of course since the escalation in the Middle East and the Iran war. Uh I think that's of course has been the main driver and is still one of the main drivers when it comes to inflation. But at the same time money supply also has been increasing over the years and accumulating and continuing to increase on a worldwide basis. Uh so it's the classical drivers for inflation and I think um as we all know and the viewers even know better than me if you go to the grocery store the real inflation is a totally different thing than the one that that is officially reported. So, let me ask you this. Uh, >> tell us about your crackup boom theory and how it relates to current inflation. Suppose the Iran war never happened. Would inflation still be higher today? >> Well, I mean, as you remember, it came down after the Fed had raised interest rates starting in 2022 and things seem to stabilize or calm down a little bit. But I've been always saying that this inflationary mindset uh has started to creep in not only the business but also generally in the psychology of of everyone, right? I mean people tend to rather buy quickly now instead of waiting a year. Business owners will not lower their prices anymore. you see everything is becoming more expensive and now of course since the Iran crisis um oil is a huge and important factor of our economy and uh that has driven inflation further up uh overall inflation is always a monetary phenomenon uh first of all and speaking of the cracker boom I mean that's a a theory invented by Ludwick from Mises 110 years or something ago And and basically it states that um while governments and central banks are expanding the fiat money supply uh on the one hand on the other hand the the the trust or the confidence in that system in that fiat currencies is diminishing and uh and so they have to keep on doing it and that means while the real economy is suffering um the the stock market prices can go higher uh even though maybe the the econ economic activity is not as good anymore as it looks like when you look at the stock markets and I think that's exactly what we're seeing over the years. Many many people uh have have faced that conundrum and tried to explain it and I think the cracker boom is still the best explanation to that. Uh on the one hand you're seeing uh most of the stock market indices near or at all-time highs while many people struggle in their real lives and and the cracker boom is a perfect explanation for that. >> Okay. Uh today as we're speaking is a huge rebound day for all the markets that dropped yesterday. Stocks are up. The S&P 500 is up 1.3%. The NASDAQ is up 2 and a half%. Gold is up almost 2%. Bitcoin is up 1.7%. So while the Dow Jones uh violently fell 1,000 points yesterday following the uh um FOMC announcement, it looks like everyone's buying back on the dip right now. Uh what is your assessment on market behavior? What are the main triggers of market movement either way up or down going forward? Clearly the Federal Reserve has something to do with it. What else? >> Well, I I think first of all uncertainty is at such elevated levels. I haven't seen that in my personal life so far. Um I think wherever you go, uh business owners struggling uh normal people are struggling. It's very hard to understand what's actually really going on. many factors pulling the markets and the economy in different directions and of course this whole war in the Middle East is is is the main thing and uh we have seen that over the last few months basically since end of February uh once the rockets are when the missiles are flying the markets are down uh panic uncertainty going higher and then there is a relief rally because Trump is announcing a C5 or saying that they're progressing in the negoti ations and then the Iranians denying it and then the whole thing starts again and that's been going on now for months and it's very hard to make something out of it and and and plan ahead right there is no consistency anymore there's no stability anymore it's up and down and the markets are clearly reflecting it so speaking about the gold market we're seeing since basically mid June a volatile wild back and forth sideways market. Overall, gold is going nowhere at the moment. It's just flat dancing up and around at $4,000 level. Um, if you zoom in, you have huge moves in a day, $100 up, next day $100 down. There's no clear trend at the moment. You could interpretate it as a as a base building, as a bottom building. Um, but yeah, volatility is high in the gold market and the same is true for for for many of the other markets. Um the the other big driver I think which is making things more difficult is um um the stock market and and specifically the um the semiconductor uh index or the the the semiconductor sector if you want. uh it had a massive rally up over the last uh 12 months starting last year and April up into early summer this year and it's now been pulling back significantly um which is of course strongly connected with the whole AI boom AI bubble whatever it is um and if this continues to correct further I think markets will continue to struggle here um at the same time yeah I mean summer is usually a little bit more of a quieter period or let's say less volume and um I I remain cautious here. I don't feel the need to be aggressively positioned here even though you might miss the initial start of a move. Uh uh I think it's totally unclear here and I I prefer to wait to get more clarity towards end of August Jackson Hall meeting and then into early September. I think we going to see more clear what what actually really is is the next move or the next direction for the markets. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about one of the most critical minerals of our economy, copper. Now, copper grades are declining globally. The majors are struggling to keep their mills fed, which brings me to today's sponsor, Algo Grande Copper Corp. Ticker Algr, and their Adelita project in Sonora, Mexico. Sonora is one of the most established copper producing regions in the world. At Alita sits inside it as a high-grade copper deposit, a type that's increasingly rare and increasingly strategic. Phase 1 drilling has already returned strong results, including 18.2 m at 1.8% copper equivalent. But this isn't a single whole story. The company has identified multiple high-grade systems along a 6 km corridor with geological work pointing to potential large-scale copper at depth. Phase two drill targets are already being defined. The technical team includes Peter Migall of Mag Silver and Raymond Janus of AEX Resources, both with proven track records in this type of geology. Ticker is ALGR. Scan the QR code here or go to the link in the description down below to learn more. >> I'd like to play for you uh I'll come back to the markets in just a minute, but let me play for you this clip from the FOMC press conference. Take a listen. Um, so the Fed funds rate is now about 75 basis points below the two-year yield. Uh, suggest markets think you'll have to tighten eventually, about 100 basis points below most tailor rule estimates. You're hitting your employment mandate. Inflation stays high. Why should rates not be higher today? Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Um, markets have made decisions because we step back in part from trying to influence those. market judgments have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve. That doesn't mean we take them as uh by dictation, but we're observing them. So, I think it's a mischaracterization to say that markets haven't reacted because we didn't move today. Markets are reacting in real time. Uh monetary policy matters not just by what we say or even what we do. Monetary policy matters by how it affects the real economy. And these prices that we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which it affects the real economy. As we speak today, the 10-year yield uh has jumped once more. The 30 yield is up another 1.38%. And uh this comes on the back of actually stronger uh stronger stocks like I told you earlier. So it looks like uh equities and gold are recovering from yesterday's sell-off despite the fact that the 10-year and 30-year are still climbing up. What is your assessment and interpretation of what Kevin War just said which is that the Fed has stepped back in that role and the markets have taken over the nominal yield has gone up and 40 days ago the nominal yield was much lower. >> Yeah. Well, first of all, uh let me honestly tell you that uh I pay attention to the FOMC uh meetings and their rate decisions, but I don't pay too much attention. I much rather look at the charts and at the price action. Um I I'm myself not understanding why the whole world is so focused on this guy and the Fed while in the end of the day, all they're doing for years and decades is printing money out of thin air, right? So I mean that's the reality of things and um if you go back for example in the 1970s you had extremely high interest rates until a Fed chair stepped in folk and really changed policies. We haven't seen any of that yet and um back then interest rates have been rising into double digits and gold was still able to rally from $35 up to $890 during that time frame. So it is questionable how much the influence really is there. Of course, you can make the argument if the if the long end in the bond market is rising, the opportunity cost for for gold uh doesn't make sense anymore and people would rather store the the liquidity in the bond market than in gold which is not paying any interest rates. Um what we have seen yesterday is the the short-term end went lower while the the the long end went up the percentages. Um and we have seen that in 2022 already. I think back then as well the market basically had dictating higher interest rates simply because people were not willing to lend money at low interest rates and that higher inflationary environment and also uh with this more and more questionable outlook for America as a as a nation who is highly indebted and and needs to pay back these debts at some point. So I think this is the big driver here. America is heavily indebted and they will have to pay back these depths at least on a nominal term and of course down the road they will have to print more money to do that in some form. However they will call it um whether they will indeed return to officially quantitative easing or they will come up with another fancy name um and a more complicated description of what they're doing but in the end of the day it will be the same. Um, so I think and that's of course also strongly connected with the war in Iran which was already costing I think at least 37 billion. I think that was the the number recently uh public announced publicly by by Pete Hex. Um, and as we all can see this disaster there is no end in sight. There's no exit for Trump apparently and somebody has to pay it right and if America will need to uh refinance their debt I think over the next 12 months something between 10 and 12 trillion needs to be refinanced um yeah the market is demanding higher interest rates and and that's actually dictating what the Fed in the end of the day will do and um they trying to uh balance the whole thing here and I think it was making sense to not raise interest rates here at this point But um at the end of the day, the market is making these decisions and that has been already the case for the last few years. >> Floring, you're German. Okay. And uh the ECB has raised rates already and there's a strong indication they may do it again in September. The ECB doesn't have a dual mandate like the Americans do. They have a single mandate to focus on inflation and so uh the ECB made the recent decision in June to raise because of inflation. Now, I just want to get your personal assessment of whether or not that's a correct policy given the economy economic situation in in in Europe. I'll read you some stats here from out of Germany as well. This came in a couple of days ago. Volkswagen is reporting potentially mass layoffs. Car makers expect to sell three 3% fewer vehicles this year. Uh it could eliminate 100,000 jobs. It's deliberating this um across the auto sector in Germany. I'll just read you a few stats I've uh pulled out before this interview here. Volkswagen operating profit fell 10 12% in Q uh Q2 and Q2 2026. Uh Mercedes uh roughly 30% decline in Chinese sales. BMW Q2 uh IBIDA down 39% revenue down 8%. Porsche arguably be the largest uh toughest transition deliveries down 16% globally in uh first half of 2026. Um and across the board uh it's estimated that the uh 7 to 8% of the German labor force is directly involved with the auto sector either directly or through auto uh manufacturing. And so right now the conclusion is the um one of the primary employers of the German workforce is slowing down dramatically and yet the ECB is still raising rates. Uh what is your response? Well, first of all, I have to honestly tell you that uh I mean this whole thing is so complicated and it's so easy for me to to tell you something here in a YouTube interview what I would do or what the central bankers are doing wrong right? >> Being in their shoes it is a very challenging job and I I would definitely not not want to be in that position. Okay. Um but of course at the same time if you look at what's going on uh in the economy economy here in Germany for example you mentioned all the mass layoffs you know from the the automo industry uh I I don't think it's a good idea to uh uh raise interest rates in this environment probably the better idea would be uh even though it is against uh my my sound money ideals probably the better move would be to really flood the the the economy with with with lower interest rates and more money to stimulate growth, but we we are not seeing that. Quite the contrary. Um so yeah, mass layoffs are terrible. Uh I think we're moving here into a stackflation scenario. uh persistent inflation especially due to um these these high oil prices the ongoing war the high level of uncertainty the the the international war for commodities which the European zone doesn't have too much of and at the same time continuing the the to expand the money supply yeah that's creating stackflation and that's actually the worst scenario for for the normal people >> what is happening with goals let's suppose we have a situation where the long end of The Treasury curve continues to rise, the 10 and 30 year continues to rise. Will that put continuous downward pressure, downward pressure on gold, Florian? >> Not necessarily. I mean, it depends how you interpretate uh why the long end is rising, right? Is it rising because confidence is being lost in that currency and uh uh people who would lend the money to these states are not uh accepting that the current interest rate. They want to see more because they say the risk is much higher. The inflationary risk is much higher. I need to have a a higher yield here to to lend you my money. Is it that or is it because uh uh you say okay gold is going down because all the money will pile into the bond market because finally people get more interest rates. Uh I think it's the the first one. I think uh the higher these interest rates climb, the more it shows you how weak the fiat money system actually is and how how much trust has been lost. And that's good good for gold. So I I I think it doesn't mean that uh gold will have problems if interest rates continue to rise. >> Let's talk about gold now. Uh at $4,000 gold, well it's actually no longer 4,000. It's 4170. So went up quite a bit since yesterday. 4170. uh the current movement here is that showing a rebound that's sustainable you think debt cap bounce. [laughter] >> So I've I've been writing now for the last couple of weeks that I expect basically a bottom here around $4,000 and that I expect a summer rally at some point. So far gold and silver are working on that bottoming process. As I said before you have a day $100 up, next day it's $100 down. But overall, I think the structure is improving a little bit. I I think the technicals are improving. We have a very oversold weekly chart. Uh gold has been now correcting since end of January. It's down uh $1,600, 30% down move in gold. That's quite a lot. You don't get that type of move very often. uh and uh I'm not sure whether we have seen the final low of that correction, but I'm I'm I'm optimistic that we're going to see a bounce here over the coming weeks. Uh a summer rally, maybe it's a dead cat bounce. Maybe it can move and expand into something bigger. Um but uh I'm optimistic going forward the next few weeks, maybe 1 to 3 months at least. And I think I want to see the world wants to see or should see the 50-day moving average again and the 200 day moving average again. These are like moderate targets on the upside. So saying maybe 4,250 then 4,300 and with some luck maybe 4,500 that would be the 200 day moving average. I think that's possible over the next few uh weeks maybe 2 3 months. That's my scenario right now. Um I think when I read other people's stuff, listen to people and investors trying to figure out how's the sentiment, everybody's bearish. Everybody's expecting gold to go to 3,500 now. That has been my worst case which I published uh early that year. I think in February, March. Um we have not gone there. I think the low has been 3,940ish. Um so far it seems that 4,000 round number psychological support seems to hold. So I think chances are pretty good that we're going to get a bounce there. When you look at the fact that earlier in the year CPI rose and gold maintained its downward momentum and the Iran war certainly didn't renew interest for gold in fact it went the other way. What is your assessment on gold's role? Are you would you look at yourself well not look at yourself but look at the chart and say to yourself rather gold is no longer a safe haven asset and we should re-evaluate how it trades. >> I think you have to be careful with these narratives. I think the most important uh factor or understanding was gold had become very overbought in end of January. We had a massive rally from uh the lows at 1615 in 2022 October. Gold went up to 5,600 in a matter of 3 and 1/2 years, less than 3 and 1/2 years. That's been a massive move. We have seen silver showing up at the end of that move dramatically rallying up to $121. The market had become extremely overbought. Uh euphoria wherever you go went um and and all the Johnny come late kind of guys moved into that sector and it's totally normal that you get this heavy correction afterwards and it takes a while. I mean we have seen that over the last 25 years quite a few times. So uh I don't think that gold has lost its safe haven role or anything. Um but yeah, it's been a a he hefty uh and deep correction, but it was also a necessary and a healthy correction. Um and I think that's the most important uh takeaway or or because gold had become so overbought and it simply needed that pullback and correction. But in the longer run uh if you assess like what's what's the worst case here for gold? Maybe another 10% downside, maybe 12 15% maximum downside. Then on the other hand, you hold a risk, you hold an asset that has survived the last 5,000 years, any any dictatorship, any any war, everything gold has survived. And um if you want to protect yourself against the ongoing uh um destruction of your per purchasing power, uh you want to hold gold. But of course, you need to have a longerterm time frame, right? Um I think that's something uh that people always have to consider. We spoke in March uh which is um when gold was still a little bit higher and uh these are some of the um main views that you told me here were uh positions downside risk possible move back below $4,000 worst case a test of $3,500. Gold near-term fresh buy signal rally toward the 50-day moving average maybe slightly above 5,000 likely another test of the 200 day. uh secular bull market, not the end of the bull market absent World War II, uh World War II rather, and gold dip buyers. Any pullback toward $3500 where below $4,000 gets bought by central banks. Now, ever since March, the gold price has been moving sideways and the consolidation has been stronger. Given this stronger consolidation, would you revised any of the views you had in March? >> No, I think I mean I I didn't remember all these details, but it it's good. Uh I think yeah we got this second test of the 200 day moving average the 50-day has kept gold on its way up and basically since mid of April renewed downside uh started to come into the market. Um yeah I still think we are in a secular bull market. I don't believe that this 25 year old bull market has ended or topped out in January. I think we are in a healthy correction. This may take a little bit longer than many people wish for or expected, but um I I'm still strongly believing that gold will see much higher prices down the road. >> Okay. Uh right now you would need to see what kind of trigger for gold to retest $5,000, let's say, which is about 25% jump from here. >> Yeah, $5,000 is is there's quite some work for the bulls to do to get us back to that uh level. So that's why I was a little bit more moderate with my expectations here, saying, "Yeah, I mean, the the 50-day moving average 4,180 is probably easy to achieve. 200 day moving average 4,490. Those two classic moving averages. Many people, many traders look at these numbers. That already will take some work to get us back to the 200 day moving average, back above 5,000. It could take actually maybe the rest of this year, maybe even into next year before we see that number again. Um unless some some crazy things happening. But um uh I I'm I'm moderate in my short-term midterm outlook here. uh long-term I think we have seen that again and again the pullbacks uh during those pullbacks it feels and looks terrible and then a few years later if you zoom out it just looks like a little blip and and and you wonder like why did you stress yourself so much about this pullback? >> All right, silver then is silver operating with the same kind of story as gold? >> Yeah, you have the problem that uh silver of course is not being bought by central banks, right? I mean that's the big driver for gold uh especially of course the Chinese central bank and and the Chinese people and Chinese institution buying a lot of gold and uh they don't buy silver and central banks generally don't buy silver um so for silver it much more depends on the industrial demand which of course is a little bit challenging right now um but I I also believe that this at some point will come back um and in the end of the day as well I mean silver is simply following gold for a long time and then at the end of a bull run it suddenly shoots up and outperforms gold dramatically and exactly that's what we've seen let's say between last October and late January and that will happen in the future again right but until then silver probably will rather remain a little bit muted while gold needs to move higher and and make the first steps in into a new bull market territory but I think it will take some time >> but uh if you were to look at and I think we talked about this back in March. But if you were to look at that one day drop at the end of January, January 30th, when gold and silver both pulled back double digits in a single day, >> um do you think that now in retrospect we know it had nothing to do with the Iran war because the Iran war came much later. Do you think that this kind of thing could happen again uh soon? And if so, what would cause another selloff of double digits by that order? I mean in the markets anything can happen usually but >> I asked this because not because I'm not asking you to predict when the next double digit selloff obviously nobody knows but let's say it's a gold investor and let's say I didn't have the you know knowledge that you did maybe I bought in recently or maybe a few years ago when gold started climbing above 200 and I see this I wake up and it went down double digits and now I'm scared because I've I thought okay maybe if this happened once it could happen again. I actually have friends of mine who aren't professional gold and silver investors. They're just retail investors and they hold a lot of different things and they have silver. And he texted me that day. He said, "David, why why is this happening? Like what what why is why is this red? Why is this down 14%. Oh my god, am I am I like do I sell now and never look at it again?" I don't know. I just watch my show. Watch Florian Gumis. What does Florian Gumis say? >> Okay. Why why why is this happening? because people take profits and um if something is rising so dramatically and parabolically like silver did rise. remember we broke out above $50 in October last year and then within 3 months this thing rallied from 50 to 120 and along that way many people must have bought to push the prices higher and the people who bought might have been big traders big hedge funds uh retail traders that might have been people buying physically but I'm sure that was also a lot of leverage traders right and if you take such a move from 50 to $1,20 even just if you're able to cut a part out of this um and you have a leverage on it and then you move maybe your stops it will just take you out and uh I mean in that specific week I remember on Monday and that was for me the the big warning signal that's when we basically turned extremely cautious and basically started selling everything in terms of our mining stocks and in terms of leverage positions and ETFs I didn't sold any physical ounce of gold in silver not to be taken wrong here Um we basically cleared out the whole portfolio [clears throat] uh and just a few core positions I I kept uh because on that Monday silver dropped from 118 to 104 within a few hours and I was like this is weird now I I I think profit taking is starting here. Let's move up the stops. Let's start start taking profits here. And then silver managed to come back up 121 I think 2 or 3 days later and that was the top. And many many professional traders, institutional traders, hedge funds but also retail traders they move their stops and at some point they get taken out and then you see these kind of like cascading sell orders pushing the the prices lower in in a few minutes. That's a total normal market phenomenon. Has nothing to do with the fundamental story in that moment. It's just people taking profits, triggering more profit taking, triggering more stop-loss orders, and suddenly an overwhelming amount of sell orders pressures onto a market that had been going up for a long time is running out of buyers, and then that's why you see these Yeah. waterfall kind of selloffs and and prices dropping very hard. >> And that's a very simple explanation. >> Yeah. Well, uh the I I I am concerned as a uh let's say I were a gold investor. I'm concerned about a few things. We addressed the rising interest rate equation. We addressed uh uh the narrative part. I'm also concerned about the price pattern that we've seen in the past. Meaning both times in 2011 and 1980 whenever gold has peaked, it's fallen a lot more than 30%. Uh that's just what history has shown. And I think I've addressed this with you before, but how much history repeats rhymes? It doesn't always repeat. Um, but how much of this time is going to be different? In other words, if you were to make the argument that this time it doesn't necessarily have to fall another 50% or so. Uh, what would that argument be? >> Yeah, I think it this is a very valid point that you're making here. So going back the last 45 years whenever we have seen silver spiking and going parabolic like it did between let's say November and January this year [clears throat] what followed was usually a long bare market uh and and and a very difficult challenging time right um the first time when it went parabolic and and topped out at $50 in 1980 it took 30 years to come back to that price level And then uh 2011 it topped out again at $50 and it took another uh uh 14 years uh to to take us back to $50. Uh I have been describing that pattern as the mother of all cup and handle patterns and we finally got that breakout above $50 and we reached that first price target out of that formation at $110ish kind of dollars. And now the big question of course is is this pattern still intact? is silver while it is correcting coming back towards $50. Right now the low has been 5450ish. Um if it's coming back and testing this former resistance is it support now within this formation? Uh it should be and it should hold above $50. It might take uh not only a few months but maybe 1 to 3 years until it's really back in a full bull market. But I would be surprised if it breaks strongly below $50 here. Um I think we are in a new price range now. We have broken out above $50 as of now I would classify this pullback as healthy as normal. And um yeah, as long as let's say 45 to 55, that range if it holds uh over the next few months, I think silver from can can then start moving back up and at some point we'll see $100 again. But you're right, >> in the past, these parabolic uh rises usually uh uh has have been followed by by a long and severe bare market in silver. >> Does Bitcoin still have a future? Shifting gears now. [snorts] >> That's another good question. Um, I have been basically completely out of crypto since last uh autumn. Um, and uh, I'm slowly but surely getting interested again in the sector simply because it's so neglected and nobody cares about it anymore. >> I think I think the fact that you got out is indicative of of the broader retail sentiment and I remember having worked with you for years now and you were one of the most active people following this space for quite some time and you're not alone and I just wonder why. Why did you get out? >> Why I get out last year? Uh um >> well, first of all, I I I I didn't like the whole hype. Uh I felt like so many Johnny come late kind of guys were in the sector. Uh I felt like this whole beautiful initial romantic ideal idea about sound money uh in Bitcoin uh had been yeah lost or like perverted basically. I didn't like all the ETFs uh which is basically paper bitcoin somehow which opened the doors for a lot of manipulation and um I didn't like the whole leveraged house of cards that uh Michael Sailor had been building. There were quite a few factors uh and I also simply felt that uh running up from 15,800 to 126,000 was quite a quite a nice rally and and and so I uh and and being through uh that that was my fourth cycle and knowing that crypto winters will be hard I decided to completely move out of the sector. >> Yeah, I understand. What is prompting you or interesting you right now to the enough for you to look at the space again? >> Well, first of all, uh you can see the bears are not making any more progress, right? I mean, Bitcoin has been sitting around the $60,000 uh dollar level now for quite some time. In fact, we got this low in early February and and then we made one lower low uh recently in in late June, but it was a sh $2,000 lower low like 58,200 300 something like this was the low. And yeah, I think uh I see an oversold weekly chart. I see that people have lost interest. Everything has been calming down. The sector has become much more quiet. So that's uh actually uh generally making me more interested. Again, I'm a contrarian by heart. So um uh I like things that nobody's interested in. Um and um that's probably the main reason right now. I'm still not 100% sure about the the whole strategy Michael Sailor story. I think it's still a big risk for for for the for the Bitcoin market. Um we have to see how this plays out. But at the same time, I also see some positive signs. Like for example, if you look at Galaxy Digital, that's a stock I've started to follow closer again. Up 16% up today. Uh very volatile the last few months, but overall has held up better than Bitcoin. And um [clears throat] yeah, I I think it could be an interesting contrarian play. Not sure if we're going to see such a hype similar to what we've seen in the past, but if the four-year cycle is still intact, we should get this turning point between now and somewhere mid of October probably. And um yeah, assuming that Bitcoin is growing up and maybe the the rallies are not as strong anymore as in the past, but still decent. Uh I mentioned the last cycle 15,800 up to 126,000 roughly 8x. Let's say this time it can only make a 5x that would still take us from roughly speaking 60,000 to 300,000. I mean that's still a very nice really maybe over the next three three and a half years uh four years maybe even no probably more 3 years uh that that based on the four-ear cycle that could be possible for Bitcoin in in the future. Um let's see. I mean the fact is also uh uh when the Trump family started to move into that sector and crypto bros started to support him everything fell apart and we have to see how how this will continue. >> Um I'm not as excited as I used to be in the past but I see a chance for uh at least uh a bounce and maybe with some luck. Yeah. The 4 year cycle starts again turning point of mid October and then best case maybe 300,000 in 3 years. Yeah. >> Yeah. Have you started following AI stocks just generally speaking? >> Yes. Uh I did. Um but it's uh it's a complicated sector as well. Uh and it's moving fast and everything is like um I mean the whole AI bubble is is hard to grasp. Right. On the one hand, you can definitely make the argument that this is just starting to speed up and and and and accelerate and still not many people using it all the time. Um, so there's still the potential for huge growth down the road. At the same time, these hyperscalers and their and their their race to become the leader uh and these huge capex and the debt findings that financings that they needed for it, it can create quite a massacre as well. on on the other end uh over the next uh one two years I mentioned the semiconductor index before it it went parabolic that's never a good sign whether the silver price goes parabolic or the semiconductors or bitcoin at some point yeah it it comes comes down hard and um and that seems to happening now with the semiconductors many of the old school tech uh stocks are already down heavily over the last few months um I'm a bit cautious here But uh generally speaking, of course, I mean, it's uh an interesting sector still and and maybe if things continue like in the past, then probably that's already a buying the dip opportunity here. >> Excellent. Well, Florian, I appreciate your thoughts. Thank you very much. Tell us where we can find your work. >> Thanks for having me, David. People can find me at midestouchersconulting.com. We have a free Telegram channel. I have a free subst as well where I publish daily charts on gold, silver, bitcoin and of course on LinkedIn and a few of the other social medias. >> We'll speak again soon. Thank you very much and uh please do follow Midas touch consulting in the link down below and follow Florian's work. Great work. Appreciate it. Florian speak next time. >> Thank you David. All the best for you and the viewers. >> Thank you and please do like and subscribe. Follow here and follow Florian.