Breaking: U.S. Bails Out Japan From Crisis; Are U.S. Stocks Next? | David Nicoski

the magnitude of the concentration risk that you're getting out of tech um may may end up coming short of expectations. [music] Everything everyone sold to get into the tech trade is now outperforming for the last, you know, 4 to 5 weeks. There's tech stocks that are down 50%. You know, I don't think we're going to see $40 oil. >> Pleased to welcome to our show a new guest, David Nikoski, CIO of Vermillion Research. On the agenda today on Monday, August 3rd, uh oil just shot down by 6 and a half% after Trump apparently called off a strike on Iran. Breaking news over the weekend, the US intervened in Japan and uh bought Japanese yen for the first time since 1998 on this scale. We're going to talk about that and the implications for US markets as well as the rising bond yields. Uh we're going to recap the Fed and go over David's predictions for what the h uh what the markets are going to do into the uh rest of the earning season and perhaps into the fall as well and which sectors he likes the most. David, welcome to the show. Good to see you. >> Hey, thanks for having me. Um you know over the last uh since the end of June, you've seen quite a bit of rotation into you know sectors that have been underperforming dramatically. So you you are seeing relative strength improve uh you know within financials, healthcare and to a lesser degree into staples. Um I I I think it's a real rotation. I I think the magnitude of the concentration risk that you're getting out of tech um may may end up coming short of expectations. And I I think it's it's very important to realize that everything everyone sold to get into the tech trade is now outperforming for the last, you know, four to five weeks. >> Okay. >> So, since you brought that up first, let's lead with that. So, volatility in the uh semiconductor chip space, I'll use Korea as an uh as an example. will no doubt you've seen the news that the Korean Cosby index which is up until a few months ago the world's number one performing index year to date by performance uh that all changed last month when the index was down 33% in July alone which was the biggest drop in the country's history worse than the 1998 Asian financial crisis worse than 2008 and worse than the tech bubble burst um and I think something like 1.2 2 million accounts got margin called which is roughly 3% of the population just uh over the weekend uh or actually over last week uh the index uh rebounded about 18% but just today it's down another five anyway is this a leading indicator do you think for what could happen to the US semiconductor space already saw the same fate but not all stocks are this volatile in the US >> yeah you know we have a pretty diversified economy. You know, I came out with a bull call December of 24, January 25 on emerging markets across the board, um, including Korea. And I I discussed, you know, at that point, and I'm a technical analyst, but it was, you know, most stocks were trading at four and 5 PE. You know, when you get through through the the cycle, you know, and if you looked at the breath within Korea, you know, just 2 or 3 months ago, you know, their breath just absolutely dropped off. you know [snorts] moving from 70% of names above the 200 day to you know 15%. It was being held up by two stocks and you saw that everyone was selling every you know name they could from you know the banks from to the steel companies like Costco and they went straight down. So this is concentration risk and you know I I think that the US market mirrors a lot of that and you know looking back at other periods in time whether it's dotcom you know when you get a sector up to 40% of the waiting of the market right now we're about 42% you know technology it doesn't mean it can't lead for a period of time it just means that the concentration risk is is starting to get egregious right um you know human behavior is is controlled by fear and greed. And right now there's a lot of greed on Wall Street thinking they know where this is going. Uh and like I said, everything they've sold off in the last, you know, year, year and a half is making relative strength bottoms. So you don't have to call it top. You do have to recognize that breath is improving at the air in all of the areas that were sold off to move into tech. And that that's what I think more important here. Uh before we go back into the US tech, EM strategy monitoring MSIM for a potential downgrade. This was dated a couple days ago on the 27th of July. Tell us about your um your [snorts] views here. >> Yeah, you know, I think with with the strong dollar, you you have a lot of you know, issues with you know, emerging markets. Um you know, if you look at some of them, and you I I wouldn't put them to aggregate them all the same. For instance, China, the FXI is actually up 15% against the S&P 500 in the last 30 days, you know. So, you are you are, you know, creating bottoms in names. You know, if you look at China, I mean, their 10-year yield is, I think, 1.7% right now. You know, that is the lowest in the entire world from from a you know, industrialized economy. So, there are issues with the dollar right now. um in Japan and you know if I do see continual weakening against many of the these emerging markets um you know I expect them to once again outperform. >> Okay. So you don't think that Korea is an indication of what's to come for the US. I'm just you do specifically the semiconductor in tech space. I yeah if you look at the tech heavy uh you know countries out there be it Korea be at Taiwan be at the you know J Japanese the Nikki 225 they all have similar distinguishable characteristics they all broke a a very parabolic up move and and are breaking that the shorter term uptrend if you start breaking the longer term uptrends especially in the US I I would see that that's a vulnerable signal that we are going to follow in the footsteps of what we're seeing in Japan and Korea and to a lesser degree Taiwan. >> Before we continue with the video, let's talk about a company that's building serious gold leverage for the long term. Our sponsor today, Stellar Gold, is sitting on three major Canadian projects. Tower and Colomac are among the largest undeveloped gold sites in the country. The Tower project alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold price assumption. And if prices go higher, so does its value. Colum expands over 1,000 square kilometers of greenstone deposits and could be Canada's next big gold camp. They also have Holler Tailings, a cleanup project that could deliver near-term cash flow. Across all projects, they've drilled over 16 million ounces of gold, which would cost over $2 billion to replicate today. With a seasoned team, Stellar Gold is one company to watch. Scan the QR code here on screen or visit stellargold.com/davidlin to learn more. Uh I want to pull up a chart that you have in your slide deck and just go over the technicals of the US markets right now and the software index in particular. Actually, before we pull up your slide deck, let me just show you a chart of the um uh SMH, which is the VAC semiconductor ETF, uh as a proxy for the semi-industry here in the US, already down about 22 23% from its top early in June. And uh this decline is some say mirroring the decline of the beginning of the 2000.com bubble busted. But if you zoom out and look at this index over time, you'll see that it's it's moved down before. Uh probably just not in this kind of magnitude at this rapid of speed of decline. Uh so I mean over 2022 for example when all markets went down it was down 50%. But that was over a span of six uh we're sorry 9 months >> here we're talking about a month and a half that's already down 25%. What do you think is happening right now? >> Well I I think you're going to look for support at the 200 day moving average. Many names bounced off the 200 day moving average here more recently. Um you know that's where it should find support. You know, when you look in the context of of historical moves and the percent above the 200 day moving average, you know, this came in very close to what the dot bubble was. Um, back then, semis were about 9% of the market. Today, it's it, you know, at the peak it was 22%. And that's not including the companies that actually are not in the semi-index that actually develop their own semis, right? you have Amazon, you have Google um developing TPUs. So, in reality, that number is is a lot bigger than the 22% I stated, you know. So, they're they're effectively competing with companies in the semi-index but are not part of it, right? So, I I again, I wouldn't phrase this as um I'm calling a top. I I would say that, you know, we are parabolically extended. We we had close to 90% move above the 200 day. The only other period in history that topped that was the dotcom bubble and it was 9%. Today we're we hit 22%. You know, if you're playing probabilities and you have that information, you know, I I would say that it's time to, you know, step outside the bounds and not have 22 or 26% in semis, especially when there's other sectors that are showing bottoming characteristics in terms of relative strength. What else is at risk of a further decline right now? >> Well, you know, I think the AI space, you know, is is you you are seeing corrections where you're getting names like Bloom Energy, um you know, some of the uh engineering and construction companies. Uh you you're starting to bifurcate in in terms of individual names. you know, if you looked at a name like Sterling uh construction versus NASDAQ, MTZ, I don't have those in the slides, but you know, there's you're you're getting divergences in in many stocks. And in other words, the correlation of the market is is actually very low. Um if you look at names um like Costco and Walmart that you know had premium valuations uh much like Apple um you see you can be a good company at the wrong price and what you are seeing is is that investors are stepping away from the the assets that they hid in [clears throat] you know during a a period in which the the average consumer discretionary stock was trading down they you know they bought Costco, Walmart, um tech you know Apple becomes a very safe play in a in an environment where um no one knows where the AI spend is going and then you see Apple, you know, move have a parabolic move up and then you get rotation and you get it back into Microsoft and uh Amazon and you know that's that's the type of environment we're in. Single stock skew is is very high. Correlations of the overall market are very low. So you're seeing big moves in individual stocks versus the index. >> Okay. >> And and I think this is a stock pickers market from that perspective. >> Okay. I'd like to jump ahead now. Uh if we're going to finish off on the markets, we're going to get David's uh outlook on what's going to happen into earning season or the end of earning season rather and we're going to get David's top picks for his sectors that he prefers. So stay tuned to the end of the interview for that. I want to jump ahead now to talk about Japan and what happened over the weekend. So, it was kind of leaked, by the way, uh last week that Scott Besson might do something with Japan. There was apparently a to-do list to uh buy 5 billion to10 billion of Japanese yen uh at a conference at Camp David. The notepad um was um this is funny kind of a interesting story here. He left a notepad on the table that says to do followed by Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion. Interesting. Now what actually happened over the weekend was the uh the Americans intervened to um boost the yen for the first time since 1998 which was the Asian financial crisis. Intervention comes after the yen touched a 40-year low. So we know that the fiscal situation in Japan has gotten worse. Their debt and deficits have projected to widen. Uh and the yen that was already weak has been sliding to even weaker lows. The Bank of Japan already tried to intervene, raise rates once, and now the Americans are intervening. Just before we get into the details here, why do you think that the US did this? Well, I I think that, you know, Japan interest rates are relatively low to the rest of the world and they're uh they're really offsides and I I think the US needed to strengthen uh the yen so that we don't have a you know uh as they as they head back in '98 the Asian contagion. Um it it becomes apparent that you know there's a large yen carry trade taking place. You know, the the problem with doing this intervention is their yields are actually going up today and and their currency is actually strengthening, you know, which which actually, you know, should uh push people off sides if they weren't there. We're we're certainly not seeing it in our equity market because historically what you do is you borrow and yen um at lower yields and and buy US assets. And so we're not seeing that take place in the US equity market, you know, to the extent that one would have thought, you know, with with all of this information, uh, you know, changing so violently here in terms of the end and and the yields moving up significantly higher. So I don't know if most firms got on the right side knowing this would take place or that we have something coming down the pike that we don't know about yet. Do you think that if the US didn't intervene to prop up the yen and if the yen is the logic here David that if the yen declines further then the bank of Japan would likely intervene some more raise interest rates even more and if that scenario were to happen the yen carry trade would reverse and we would have a massive sell off of US assets which they don't want before the midterms. Is that the logic here? I I think that's exactly the logic that you know but you know we don't have yield curve control the the the you know Japanese government you know interceded in the in the currency market a number of times and failed. I I think they needed a joint effort with the US to actually turn the tide there and actually you know get that to move in the direction that they really need it. Um but you know if if you do have this yen carry trade you know the strengthening of the yen in yields moving higher should collapse that yen carry trade or at least make the risks much higher with what's happening here. So it's it's almost like they're the US government is trying to force the unwind of the end carry trade with with what they're doing because this is everything that's happening is not advantageous for the end carry trade right now. Um, speaking of the yen carry trade, and I like to bring this up, uh, you're a technical expert, and, uh, this might be of interest to you. So, I'm going to pull up the Japanese yen, uh, and we're going to go over that versus, uh, the S&P 500 here. I I just, again, I'm not insinuating that correlation equals causation. I've just noticed something. This is uh the Japanese yen versus so the uh yeah yen versus DXY uh dollar rather yen versus dollar pair is uh the bar chart and the blue line is the S&P 500. >> Now obviously they don't move together perfectly. I've just noticed that the correlation has become a little bit stronger over the last I would say two and a half years or so, especially since you saw both declining and moving up together in 2025 and more or less moving the same direction. Um, have you looked at this correlation and this relationship at all? >> Yes, I have. Yeah, there I mean there's there's definitively a correlation there. you know, they don't they don't move in a 100% rhythm, but the there certainly is, you know, we all, you know, most on Wall Street understand what the yen carry trade is, you know, and that's why I say I I'm actually surprised at the behavior of the market today relative to what we're seeing in in the Japanese yen and in Japanese bonds. >> Right now though, are you bullish in the dollar? >> Um, the dollar is breaking an uptrend. We just fell through some support levels right at the 100 101 level. So I I would want to see us retake that. Um I think there's a circumstance that you know for as Bob Ferrell once you know a very famous technician once said you know everyone gets into the foreign markets at the top and perfect example Korea you know I was calling a bottom in December January of you know January of 25. It's all over my, you know, timeline. It's in my calls. You know, at the last, you know, in the last 6, 8 months is when you saw everyone run into, you know, into the Korean Cosby. Um, my concern here would be that you go through long-term cycles. In April 12th of 2002, 2 years after the dot bubble, the US dollar broke a parabolic uptrend that sent the S&P down 25%. You know, so the unwind of a currency and it's really depends on how fast you fall. It's not that it you broke the uptrend, it's the rate of change in which you broke that uptrend was was very, you know, very fast, right? So if you look back at the 2002 time period, April 12th, 2002, you know, we made a call of repatriation. Again, that call hasn't been made in 24 years. So, it's not something that happens very often, but when it does happen, it can be consequential for the markets. >> So, I think somebody watching this right now might ask, why are my taxpayer dollars going to bail out or intervene in a foreign currency market? In other words, Japan. Why did our taxpayer dollars just go to Japan in the order of several billions of dollars propping up the Japanese yen? What does this mean for us here in the US? And I think a another way to answer this question is if Scott Bessant hadn't done this, what would be the consequence to the US markets? >> Well, the consequence would would be that we're we're going to allow, you know, much like the Asian contagion which you had Thailand. Um, you know, the consequences of this would be that money could come out of the market dramatically if if their currency continues to weaken. Again, what they're doing here is is has some good and bad to it, right? Um the they're kind of speeding up the process of of, you know, [clears throat] the yen strengthening, which is good because they can buy commodities. Japan doesn't have any commodities. I think they provide, you know, 3% of their own oil. You know, they have to import all of it. So, they become they come to a standstill if their currency continues to weaken. And I and I think that's what the the Fed is trying to, you know, uh trying to force the the yen to gain some strength here. Um the question's still out and the jury is still out on whether or not this pushes the yen carry trade to an end. Um because the two things that are happening right now, yen strengthening and yields moving up are actually anti-y trade. So, you know, there's there's, you know, a lot of hyperola and you don't make decisions in 24 hours. You you wait until, you know, the smoke clears before you see what actions are taken. And I care as a technician, I care about actions. You know, when uh for instance, you know, when they come out with a GDP report, I can't buy the GDP. I have to buy what I see technically is outperforming in relative strength, >> right? Yes. So I care about action. >> Right now we have oil falling like a rock and oil has been moving up like a rocket and falling like a rock within intraday mo intervals. So it's not like this is a surprising move but uh how would you as an investor and trader interpret the moves of oil? um especially when you consider that the Fed bases its expectations on inflation on oil uh partly right uh even though they look at core PCE but of course the oil markets do dictate where inflation expectations go overall that's at least that's what's been happening so far >> you know I I I think you know the volatility you're seeing in oil um it's it's you know certainly more um geopolitical in nature And I think it's important to remember that the SPR is doing what it's supposed to. They're releasing oil out of it. At what point do you hit a level that you have to stop or, you know, stop exports of refined product? The crack spreads are near all-time highs. You know, all-time highs. It It's pricing in $140 oil and crack spreads. So if if you look at the oil market and and try to make any sense out of the gyrations and the tweets that we get out of from you know uh from our leader I don't think you're going to find anything to to give you an edge there. What I will say is if I asked everyone on this show what is what is outperforming from the COVID lows is it XLE or XLK? Most people wouldn't be aware that XLE is actually outperforming tech. Okay. So, you know, it's it's we we all have this, you know, um one thing relative strength does to you is it tells you where everyone's positioned. When when energy is 3% of the market, [clears throat] you know, just to be market weight is a 3% position. You know, most people don't even have that. If if energy moved up, you know, 20% from here or received 1% of fund flows, that's a 33% gain. Um, that that's pretty substantial. And I I think, you know, just ignoring energy because you can't figure out the price. Many companies in here are very cash flow, you know, free cash flow positive. Um the long-term trend s suggests that you know you're above a huge base a 20-year base on XLE. You know, give it time. These are processes. They don't you don't wake up one day and say, "I need to go long energy or I need to short it." Right. Right. >> Um I see I see a lot of people get ecstatic, you know, on X in the in the universe saying, "Oh, I can't wait to short energy." There's tech stocks that are down 50%. You know, I don't think we're going to see $40 oil. That's what I would tell you. >> We're not going to see $40 oil. That means we're going to get effectively higher inflation expectations here to stay, which means bond yields are going to keep going up. Is that the play here to be short bonds? >> I I think bond yields are going to move higher. And and and if the only way I think you get bond yields moving lower is an a lower equity market to force people into bonds. >> Okay? >> And we're not getting that at this point. So >> yeah, by the way on the screen right now I have what you talked about earlier XLE in the bar chart XLK in the blue line uh beating inflation. Uh so XLE has been beating XLK like you said since uh the since 2021 uh 2022 the co uh 2020 co lows. Now, uh, I talked to, uh, the director of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, and it was an interesting conversation because she brought up the fact that the concern for inflation has been a relatively recent phenomena. All throughout the 2010s, inflation has been relatively stable. Disinflation was the trend. And so, consumers weren't worried about rising prices at the same pace that they're worried about now. And so as an investor, when you're looking at this trend and consumers are all of a sudden, not all of a sudden, but over the last couple years becoming more aware or concerned about rising prices and the unaffordability of life more so than maybe 10 years ago, how does that change your overall thesis on which sectors to overweight and underweight? >> Yeah. When one of the charts that I I sent in that uh presentation, if you pull up XLY, >> it's at a 14-year relative strength low versus the S&P 500. 14 years. pull up a chart of Home Depot, Lowe's, you know, Lululemon, right? Like those they're disasters. If I keep hearing about this K-shaped economy, every, you know, every stock that the upper end of the economy would buy, Lululemon, right? Expensive pants, right? You know, there is not a K. There is definitively there is weakness in the consumer sector. And you have to look for the individual names. you know, McDonald's is at, you know, I I think a 14 or 16 year relative strength low. That means that if you bought it 14 16 years ago, you're break even on a relative strength basis. So, you you really have to look, you far underperformed the market. And if you look at individual stocks, you'll see names like BJ's Restaurants or Cheesecake Factory are actually outperforming McDonald's substantially. Walmart and Costco, everyone, you know, was buying them, pushing them to a top at valuations that, you know, were unfounded. Target is actually out outperforming Walmart and Costco over the last 6 months handily. I mean, absolutely handily. So, you know, this is a stock pickers market. You're seeing less um group correlation. And so if I look at a group with 10 names and I have all of my propri proprietary research that you know breaks up the the market into 13 sectors, 440 groups, I can look at a group and what I'm seeing is the the bifurcation in individual groups where you have a a name like Target and Walmart together and you're seeing that one's going up and one's going down. The correlations are off and that's why I brought up correlations earlier in the interview. Well, I saw a comment on one of my YouTube videos that said, "I'm This is the commenter's uh post. He said, "I see people going to baseball games. Stadiums are still full. Restaurants and bars are still full. The weekends, people are going to theaters." By the way, Spider-Man just opened last weekend. It was the single biggest uh box office open in American box office history. I think it was $168 million in box office opening weekend. And the comment is people are still going out and spending money. As a market technician, what data would you need to look at to either prove or disprove that statement? >> Well, you know, when when you look at I'm I'm bullish movie theaters, by the way. Um there's a slide in there that shows the top performing groups in the market. I think it's closer up. >> Scroll up. It's a got coloring on it >> and it's it points out the top that one right there. So if you if you look at that, you know, you're going to see movie theaters, it's like the eighth one down. So this is a relative strength ranking that we use. Um that that you know the strong groups are on the left hand side of the page, the weaker groups are on the right hand side of the page. And that's just a snapshot of the first page. That list goes on and on. So, um I I'm going to say we we are the the consumer is spending money, but you can have a stock break out to new highs and underperform, right? Relative strength is key to finding the the strength in the market. And you know, when it comes to looking at where the strength is in the market and you see the groups up here in terms of consumer discretionary, right? I I have probably 70 groups in consumer discretionary. you see just a few names up there, you know. So, picking the right group in the in the sector is key to outperforming the sector. And I I I think a lot of people don't understand what relative strength is. The banks are far outperforming the consumer discretionary sector. You see a number of financials on there. You see a number of healthcare. When you look at the right side of the page, major automobile manufacturers, you know, at the bottom, what you're seeing is is that the consumer that has to marry a 5-year payment, be it Thor Industries, be it Winnebago, um be it Camping World for an RV or boats, those are all going to be on the right hand side of the screen. So, what you're seeing is people are buying um opportunities or something, you know, like at a movie theater, you're buying an experience. >> Somebody told me, uh, the economy isn't doing well and therefore people have less money to spend on big purchases like boats and big vacations and whatnot. And so, with the money that they do have, they're going to spend money on more affordable experiences like movie theaters, potentially, um, uh, bookstores like you mentioned here. uh restaurants, maybe casual dining. Does that make sense or do we see >> Yeah, >> absolutely. They're buying experiences. That's what they want. >> Okay. I think this is a good segue to talk about the sectors that you would overweight and underweight right now. You mentioned a few to me offline. Uh so we have a situation where inflation expectations are high. Potentially the Fed may raise interest rates. You you expect bond yields to to go up. Um I don't know if you think the yield curve is going to steepen. It certainly did last week with the FOMC meeting concluded. Uh we haven't talked about that yet, but uh what is your expectation for what is going to go higher and what is going to go lower? >> Um well, right now we're still overweight tech and it doesn't mean uh I I have to wait for longer term trend lines to violate. So what what I'm seeing, you know, outside of the tech call is that the breadth of the market is improving in a number of other sectors. Um those sectors are financials, banks, uh we made a call about a month ago on insurance related names. You know the problem with the insurance related names and as a technician I can see the the trends change and see relative strength spike. You know I I if the AI trade is is crowded, you're going to want to look at insurance names that don't have the you know as much exposure or limit exposure into you know funding AI debt. you are seeing credit default swaps blow out and on a lot of the and when I say blow out I mean they've moved up significantly. I don't want to say they blow out that no one wants them. I'm saying you know if the risk is there you're going to see credit default swaps on AI related names move up substantially from here to blow out. But you know th those are the things in the back of my mind looking at you know how how crowd behavior is at times like this. Um so I I do like the insurance names. I would aggregate it to, you know, say I I want the names that are less associated or don't do as much private debt or private equity, I think are going to be safer. Um I I think that the banks, especially the ones outside the country, European banks went from negative interest rates to positive. They've been outperforming for almost four and a half, 5 years. That's been a you know, a strong buy for us. UBS, Deutsch Bank, that group has far outperformed the US markets. handily. Okay. Um, so, you know, when you get down into healthcare, I'm seeing IHI, uh, it's it's a group that I highlighted in the slides. You're seeing, you know, Medronic, Abbott, [snorts] Baxter, you know, start to outperform here in the last month and a half. And I I think that's going to continue as as funds start to move down their tech waiting. and they can still be at a market weight, you know, intact, but it's it's a substantial portion of their their assets. >> Okay. Well, uh I see by the way at the uh right side of the list you have um precious metals mining um and some to some extent rare earth metals as well in red uh worst performing groups. That's based on current sentiment or your future sentiment. By the way, >> that is based off of solely relative strength. >> Relative strength. Okay. just relative strength. It's it's literally an algorithm tracking relative strength. >> Do you ever use this as a contrarian indicator? If something is really really red or really really green, you'll either sell it or buy it. >> Yeah, I just look at the trends and right now gold is at an interesting uh area. In March, I I indicated that gold uh the 200 day was at 4,100. I think we hit 4103 that day. um it reversed, had a substantial move up and not to new highs, but came back and we're sitting at that horizontal support level right around the 4,100 level. So, I'm watching that, you know, um with enthusiasm because I I think if the dollar were to weaken here, we're going to we're going to see some move in the precious metal. So, right now, we're we're hanging out right around that level. Um I'm interested in it, you know, at that 4100 level. I think if you went down to the, you know, um, 4,000 level, it it would be less I'd be less enthusiastic, but we may be building a bottom there from what I see. And that's based on relative strength too. >> Great. Appreciate your thoughts and insights. David, >> tell us where we can find your work and follow you. >> Well, we're um there's few different ways to do it. I'm on X at Dave Vermillion. Um, one L inverion. There's also a Substack called Vermillion Research um that you're welcome to check out. Um I touch upon, you know, sector rotations and that type of thing on there. And then there's vermillioncap.com is our homepage uh on the net. So feel free to look us up and any questions feel free to contact me. >> Okay. Excellent. We'll put the links down below. So make sure to follow David Nikkowski there. Welcome to the show, David. And we'll speak again soon. Take care for now. >> Thank you, David. I appreciate your time >> and thank you for watching. 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