4 Stocks I'll Buy If We Crash This Week

Hey everyone and welcome to the weekly portfolio update. Over the last week, the couch investing portfolio was down 1.32% whereas the S&P was down.77% which means that year to date still up 37.53% whereas the S&P is up 12%. Now in today's video we do have to talk about something big. No, not the upcoming FOMC meeting, but we will touch briefly on that. We'll go over some uh technical points with regards to the names that we do cover each and every week. But I do want to spend some time on this the talk of the town right now. This huge piece here. We must pace the frontier from Dario Amod the CEO of Anthropic. We need to talk about that because for once he Elon Musk and Sam Oldman are agreeing on the same thing which is quite strange. So let's talk about that and let's talk about how that impacts AI stocks on Monday and onwards. Let's start off here with the 12 names that we look at each and every week and see which one is at a support area, which one broke down, and which one actually is on the right track to gain even more momentum. So, we'll start off here with Google Alphabet around the same price as last week. So, still a decent area to add more if you're interested in. Of course, ideally, ideally, we might see a small correction happen and it goes back to $300, which is around 10% correction here. But this is still a pretty good area to add more for the long run. As for Rocket Lab, same story there. Still around the same area. Low 60s, high 50s, low 60s is an area where I would like, and I've said it time and time again, low 60s. I won't mind if we see it create a base around those prices. It's still quite pricey. We're still waiting for Neutron. Yes, of course, big contracts can change the story for Rocket Lab, but right now consolidation around $60 to me is okay. As for SoFi, no, clearly it was not the last time you could buy SoFi under $18 because it dipped again under $18, closed out the week at $17.32. Luckily for us, it's still in a decent area. The range here is still quite okay. Yes, it's quite tiring to always look at SoFi, always see the business performing time and time again. And yet, we are still around the same prices. We're nowhere near where we were at the start of the year. But hey, guess what? We are a much better business today than we were January 1st. And hey, who knows? If we do get past Wednesday and we did not get a rate hike, could be pretty good for a name like SoFi. Now, one name that has been doing a little bit better over the last couple of weeks and months, and that's Amazon. Although Amazon did give back some of its gains from the after earnings jump, still in around the same area as a week or two before. Now, I know Amazon might not be the name where you're going to make 300% on 200% or even 100% because the company is already quite big, but it still is, in my opinion, one of those names where you just buy and hold forever and you should be fine. And yes, I do think that this is a $300 stock trading at around 250. Now, one name that of course has been undervalued for quite a while. And finally, we are seeing the name move, that's Meta. closed out the way close to $650. We're finally getting a little bit more momentum, right, with the launch of Muse, their own AI agent platform. This is just the start. This still at $650. This is a name that should be over $800 easily. But yeah, finally, we are getting some momentum. Although, who knows? with this new thing going on right now. Maybe they're trying to break the momentum of companies like Meta, all the open- source open way models. Could be. We'll talk about that in a bit. New holdings still retesting a support area. Yes, unfortunately we did not close back above $15 per share, but this is still a very good company expanding outside of its core borders. Some might see it as a risky move. I just see this as well when it was a given. As you know, they are starting small. They're still concentrating in their core markets, but new is going to be in the future a multiple hundred billion dollar company. As for Netflix, this thing doesn't move. Doesn't want to stay above $80, but does stay just below $80 or again consolidation zone for Netflix. Nebus, Nebus, I do think could get hit on Monday, just like with core, just like with every other AI name out there. But again, I'll explain a bit. But as of right now, as you can see, $224, still above $215, 219. If we do see a slight correction, $200 per share or a little bit under, it could be a very, very good area to add for the long run. As for Reddit, this one also had a day where it jump around 67% or so. Oh, it's at 67. Let's skip this part. 157. We still need to get back above 165 to really gain some more momentum. So again, accumulation zone. As you can see, a lot of these names are in their accumulation zones. Axon last week, well, two weeks ago, we said, let's see if it does go back to low 500s. We got the low 500s and now we got even lower. Did I add more? No, because I did add 500. Was it 520? 524. right now 580 ideally if we do drop a little bit lower then yes I would probably buy a little bit more now you might say why not you just bought at 524 it's at 480 why not buy more yes but percentwise doesn't really make that much sense let's say I buy at 480 it drops even lower now I just spent a lot of money on 524 480 and it went lower okay can't time the market but let's say I wait and it drops lower, then it makes maybe more sense. And if I wait and it goes back higher, okay, then my position just continues to go up. Looking at Marcado Libre, it did drop back under $1,900 per share. But here as well, still in the same range, in the same area. So consolidation right under $2,000. As for Uber, still in the low70s, still struggling to really try to make a push back above $80 per share. But in my opinion, the business remains undervalued. Yes, the narrative here, the sentiment around the name is definitely negative despite the company delivering despite insiders buying millions of dollars worth of shares. But right now, the market is waiting for a sentiment shift around this name. Now, a sentiment shift could definitely happen on Wednesday, but it does seem right now probabilities here sit at 86.5% chance that we're getting a rate hike. Now, I'm still thinking about the Fed doing absolutely nothing. I'm still thinking about that scenario despite seeing this number right here. And I've explained that in Friday's video. A a small hike. Is this really going to make a difference? If we get 50 basis points, it's a bit different because we might get 50 basis points now and maybe the market might price another hike, another 25 or maybe, who knows, maybe double 50. Although that I think would be an extreme scenario, but if you tell me that Wednesday were Wednesday and they did nothing, I wouldn't be that surprised. Switching quickly to the portfolio, as you can see, nothing really has changed. I didn't buy any shares over the last couple of days purely because we have a big event happening on Wednesday. And it so happened to be that yeah late on Friday we've got uh the leaders in AI freaking out about it which could cause me to buy more shares over the next couple of days if we do see a big big hit in Nebus and the stock drops drastically under $200 per share. I'll probably buy more. Same with Meta. Suddenly we do have here as well this thing goes back under 600 or close to it. I'll buy more. Same with Google. Why? because I don't think it will change that much. I'll explain in a bit. Rankings here still the same. Nebu, Sofi, AMD, Google, Meta, Oscar, as you met Meta. Slowly but surely, right, this name is going to go all the way to number three spot if we do go to $800 plus dollars per share. Rocket Lab, Dlo, Micron back under $1,000 per share. Robin Hood, New Palanteer, Uber, Rubric, Reddit, Axon, Netflix, Cash, and a couple of shares of Nvidia. As you can see, the last time I bought was four shares of Axon at $522 per share. I will increase the positions if we do see a big a big change in prices. Of course, if it happens on Monday, I'll probably be inclined to wait for Wednesday. But if it is already super attractive, I might just pull the trigger on Monday. Now, what could happen? Well, the big move could happen because of this. We must space the frontier. I've worked on AI for the last 12 years because I believe it could dramatically raise the quality of human life. I've written often about these incredible benefits. I believe that AI could cure most major diseases in the next 5 to 10 years, greatly accelerate economic growth rates, create a world of abundance and empowerment and usher in a renaissance of democracy and freedom. I feel the urgency. Personally, my own father died of a disease that was cured just a few years after his death. And I myself survived an earlystage cancer that would not have been treatable even 50 years ago. Carefully wielded, AI can be the latest in a long line of technological miracles that have uplifted and enabled humanity. And then he goes on to talk about the risks. They include the risk of losing control of AI systems, misuse of AI for cyber attacks and bioteterrorism, and serious economic disruption. A race to the bottom spurred by commercial incentives can make these risks more accused. Now, of course, this is very interesting coming from one of the leading AI labs out there that so happen to maybe go public pretty soon. Now what's even more interesting is that when he released this piece on X, Sam Alman from OpenAI agreed with him. Elon Musk, right? Elon Musk who previously did not like Entropic called it misanthropic. But of course then Entropic became his customers pays him billions of dollars. So he cannot he cannot remain angry at them. But he also agrees here to slow down. Now what I do find interesting is why do you need approval from Congress or or things like that? Regulatory capture. You guys are the leaders in AI. You own huge AI labs. If you both or all of you three agree that you should slow down, then then why aren't you slowing down? uh you guys are the backbone of this. Okay, you can add Google, you can add Meta, you can also maybe make the point that Google has been taking it much slower than the rest and Meta just came back into the race right now. But OpenAI and Tropic maybe talk to each other and agree that you might slow it down. Why do you suddenly need to force the whole industry to participate here? Now I've made a nice little infographic here with the help of a chat GPT. So the core proposal and public narrative is they call for a deliberate slowdown in AI capability scaling to reduce existential risk and buy time for safety. A three-step plan embedded evaluators third party auditors such as METR with employee level access inside Frontier Labs democratic coordination and global agreements. Now can you control this? In my opinion, no. You cannot control AI right now. Right? They can say we are going to slow down. China can say okay and they might not slow down. Right? AI is out there. Pandora's box has been opened. AI is not going to slow down. It's not going to disappear because one lab or two is saying, "Oh, we need to slow down." It's out there. These frontier models are out there. Open source models are out there. Open way models exist. Now the point where regulatory capture against open source can be made is maybe valid here. So open models and competitors like Meta are rapidly closing the gap eroding closed lab pricing power. Mandatory evaluators and compliance create a regulatory mode and could restrict raw model weights and synthetic data distillation pipelines. If OpenAI and Entropic and maybe SpaceX AAI as well decide that this is the way to go, they have the money right to do everything that needs to be done. Smaller companies might not. Open source companies might not. And suddenly they get screwed over because these guys decided that okay you know what we are already extremely powerful we can survive. We can set the rules but the little guy probably cannot. you can probably make the case that this is one of the things that they're thinking about cuz remember if other companies are suddenly coming out with more capable models if pricing is coming down significantly remember Google and Meta Cash cows Meta came out with a product where pricing is super super low Meta is a very very profitable core business same with Google it's not very good for an entropic and an open AI that are still still in my opinion losing quite a lot of money and they still need to invest a significant amount of money in order to yes maybe become super profitable in the future and so on Monday I would not be surprised I would not be surprised if we do see another deepseek type moment now it's not apples to apple comparison deepseek moment but the reaction of these stocks could very well be because like I said AI is out there AI will continue to grow The need for more compute is there. It's not going to disappear anytime soon. Open source models, how are you going to slow that down? I don't know. I don't see that happening anytime soon. Open way, same thing there. And so the real business impact on NeoClouds and some of these companies, I don't think is going to be as big as what the stocks might reflect on Monday. Then again on Monday we might open the market and nothing will happen. But based on the sentiment and the conversation right now, I'd be surprised if it's not red. And again, I go back to the same question. At the end of the day, why do they need to make this into a huge political move? Yes, maybe this helps them gain some political points going into the midterms. Who knows what the results there will be. Right now, seems like the Democrats might sweep. So maybe they want to be on the right side of the winner could very well be. Those are all assumptions right now. But to say that this is purely about safety. Again, you guys run the biggest AI labs on the planet. If you feel you need to slow down, slow down. That's it. It's very simple. And it's nothing new cuz they've been talking about some of the things for quite a while. And yet, have they been slowing down? No, we've heard some reports from OpenAI here and there that they might have slowed down a little bit, but this to me seems a bit bigger than that, especially when Sam, Dario, and Elon agree on the exact same thing. Of course, then you have the Brad Gersner and all of these same people out there that never really share their own opinion because, god forbid they say something against uh their own investments, right? Anyways, I think we're going to have some opportunities over the next couple of days, whether it's this or a rate hike. So, if you have cash, you'll probably be sitting in a good position. If you were thinking about raising cash, I do think that that time is now. And so, all in all, that's about it for me in today's video. Hope you enjoyed your weekend. See you all in the next one. Bye-bye.