AI Investors - This Week Will Be VERY Interesting (Nebius / Coreweave Earnings, CPI, & More)

All right, what's up everybody and welcome back to another Sunday here in the stock market. Well, it feels good to be back home. As many of you know, I did take a couple days off. I had a few buddies actually fighting in some MMA fights last night and they got the job done. My boy Vance Shaw, this is one of my best friends. He got a real scrappy, real hard win last night. I was in his corner absolutely freaking out. I'm talking absolutely losing it, which is why my voice is a little raspy today. But nonetheless, he got the win and then my guy Darion, he also went out there, put on a great performance. Um it was it ended up being a tie. I didn't see it that way. I thought we very clearly won. He actually fought a guy that I fought back in March. This fellow that he fought right here, I actually fight this I fought this guy back in March and I thought Darion did enough to beat the guy, but we got a draw. We got a tie. Not the worst thing that could happen, but you know, you know how it goes, right? But nonetheless, it was a great great weekend. Um glad to always be there for the fellows. Uh it's nice. You guys know I'm a professional fighter myself and I do much rather be prefer be on the uh coaching side of things. Fighting's very stressful. Um but yeah, great weekend. Really tired. We got back from the fights I think at 2:00 last night and then I drove home at 6:00. So running on 3 and 1/2 hours of sleep, but you guys know me. I'm going to be here anyway, getting you guys ready for the next week because we have a very interesting week ahead. We have a very interesting week ahead is we have a clash of three forces over the next 5 days. So this week is all about three big things all hitting at once, okay? We have another round of AI infrastructure earnings. Not as big as last week, but still important. We have the July CPI inflation report, which is going to be really important because this now does factor in oil prices climbing. So we're going to see how that impacted inflation. And we also have some major major decisions playing out on the charts over the next few days, especially for things like Spy, some very important things happening for Nvidia, Micron, SoFi. Got some very important stuff happening on the charts as well. And they're all landing over the same few days, which is going to be what makes this week very, very interesting. Now, you guys are probably noticing the verbage that I'm using. I'm not really saying that this is going to be a super chaotic week or a wild week. No, I honestly do think that this week will in general be a bit more relaxed than the last few weeks, but nonetheless, it is going to be important because it's going to feed us information that are that is going to impact the way that the market perceives its risk right now, right? Depending on what we see from the AI infrastructure earnings and CPI, it's going to kind of adjust the risk that the market's willing to take right now, which is important for our portfolios. So, in today's video, we're going to go through everything. We're going to walk through the earnings, which ones are going to be important, and what we're looking for. Then, I'm going to walk you all through CPI really quickly, show you what we're going to be paying attention to there. Then, we'll jump into the charts. I'll walk you through exactly what you're going to want to look for from a more technical perspective this week, and we'll finish out by going into my own portfolio, and I'll show you the moves that I'm making. My portfolio did do pretty good last week, up about $7,700, putting us at an $11,000 gain on the last month, up $22,000 over the last 3 months, and year to date, the portfolio is now up $52,000, buckaroos, nearly at $100,000 in all-time gains, which is pretty dang on cool there. So, we have a good bit to get into today. Of course, I hope you guys have been enjoying the content, and I hope you guys have found it super valuable, especially as things have been crazy for the last few weeks. So, if you did, smash that like button, and let's get into it. So, as I mentioned before, this week is going to be a little bit more relaxed, right? As we all know, the last few weeks were definitely more relentless, but even with that said, I do think this is going to be a more kind of focused and isolated week, right? You know, over the last few weeks, we had Palantir earnings, AMD earnings, the memory names, job reports, PCE data back to back. The week before that was hyperscalers with Meta and Microsoft, and Amazon, and also Apple. Like, there was so much. It was just relentless, back to back to back to back. we're not really getting that this week. It's definitely a bit more focused, but still very important, a smaller, tighter batch isolated towards the AI infrastructure layer when it comes to earnings. You know, these are like the picks and the shovels of this whole AI wave. And although they're not particularly the biggest names, they're definitely still very important. And this is why, because as you know, we've already heard from hyperscalers in the fact that they're spending money and chip makers like AMD that are selling GPUs making a lot of money. We we've heard that over the last few weeks. But at the end of the day, these are the companies that we're about to talk about this week that are reporting earnings that actually build and wire up these AI data centers, right? The hyperscalers need these picks and shovels to be able to create these data centers. The chip makers like AMD need these companies to provide the services needed to build the data centers for their customers, the hyperscalers to purchase GPUs and put them in in the first place, right? And their numbers tell us whether all that AI spending is really flowing through the whole system or whether or not it's starting to slow down. It's an actual read on how real and how durable this build out actually is, whether or not it's sustaining or is it a bubble. This is going to be the more foundational layer of this whole AI wave and it is still very important to pay attention to, although it's not going to grab the headlines like an AMD will, right? Or an Nvidia will in a few weeks if that makes a lot of sense. So, with that in mind, these are the ones that I'm paying attention to. There are actually a good bit of them that are going to be happening this week. I think five or six total that I think are important, but personally, when I'm looking at the AI wave as a whole, these are the four that I'm looking at. Coreweave, very important. You guys know a lot about Coreweave. I'll talk about that in a second. Nebias, Amant, our good buddy right there, Applied Materials, and Cisco Optical, okay? These are the ones that we're looking for. Um, on the days that they report earnings, I will be diving much, much deeper into the actual numbers. There's no point in me doing it now because by the time they actually report on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, you'll probably have forgot, right? So, I'll just go over it on the live streams on the videos. But in general, on Coreweave, we're looking at 255 uh 2.55 billion in revenue, $1.22 in EPS. Nebius, 573 million in revenue, 67 or minus 67 EPS. Cisco, EPS $1.17, AMAT, EPS 336 on an 895 revenue. Okay? That's roughly what we're looking for. Again, I will I will dive into those in Cisco and optical, by the way, okay? So, we have some interesting stuff here. Personally speaking, whenever it comes to which ones I actually care about, the ones I'm actually paying attention to, it really does come down to Coreweave and Nebius for me. These are the ones that I personally care about in terms of the funnel of AI. Because Coreweave, for example, is a company that rents out AI computing power, which is a as you all know, it's a cloud that is built entirely for GPUs. So, they're on the more customer side of the hyperscalers. And they're big, man. I mean, revenue near 2.55 billion, 100% and 111% growth year-over-year. And as many of you saw probably 3 months ago, they announced that their backlog has been growing like crazy. a company like this tells me is the revenue still flowing throughout the whole chain? Because great, hyperscalers are making money. Great, the you know, if you take a step further into the chain, the chip makers that are selling that are selling their hardware to the hyperscalers are making money. But, let's start working our way this way now, right? So, if you have hyperscalers here, chip makers here, ASML here, right? Let's go this way. The companies that are actually renting the compute power, then the software companies, how are they doing? This is what this is going to tell us. And it's very important to know that because you want to make sure that the whole chain is intact. Because remember, if one part of this chain starts to break, it could crumble the whole chain. It really can crumble the whole chain. And that's why you want to pay attention to software all the way to machine makers, right? The people who make the EUV machines. You want to You want to go through this whole chain. And that's what they give us here. Now, Nebius is very similar. They're a fast-rising rival. Nebius isn't really that important in the grand scheme of the world of AI, but there's a lot going on here that I think is important. One, they're very popular. They're gaining a lot of attraction from retail investors right now. If I remember correctly, I think I saw a headline when I was driving that Michael Burry just opened a short on them. I might be making that up. So, we might need to double You know what? I'll just double-check right now while we're on stream. Let me Let me see. I'm I'm actually curious. Michael Burry Nvidia's short. Pretty sure. Shorting Nvidia's is like shooting fish in a barrel. Yeah, look at this. Yeah, that did happen. Okay, so that's made a lot of people interested. There's a lot of negativity going into Nvidia's next week. You know, it does make me want to open up a long trade on them. I don't know why I have this tendency, but anytime everyone says, "Oh my god, it's going to fall because of blank." I almost always go long. Funnily enough, we actually did that on SpaceX last week. You guys know on the Open Wallets podcast, me and Connor were talking about the fact that everyone was assuming that SpaceX was going to crash as a result of their unlocks coming and I was like, "Screw that. I'm going long." Connor was like, "Let's just go long on it." We opened up long trades on the live stream and we made a 17% gain on that. That was hilarious. But nonetheless, there's just a lot of attention and people paying attention to Nvidia's right now. It's a company in with of course no Nvidia owns over 9%. I mean, it's interesting to say the least. These are the big two that I'm paying attention to and again, they tell us if that chain is intact in that part of the AI trade. So, going to be very important. So, those are the big ones that we're looking for. Coreweave, Nvidia's, also got Optical, Cisco, AMAT, some important ones there as well. Okay. So, that's your earnings. We will go over that. Remember, when they have big earnings reports, important earnings reports, I'm going to update you guys. I'll be doing live streams. I'll be making shorts. You're always going to stay up-to-date. Now, with that in mind, let's move ahead to the CPI. Okay. So, this CPI, in my opinion, in my opinion, is going to be particularly important Because we know after watching the last Fed meeting that they are very heavily weighing what to do here. It's like they seem to be in kind of a wait-and-see sort of moment, but they are getting a bit of pressure. They have some members of the Fed who are now pushing for a rate hike, and I think all of these inflation numbers are going to be very important. And right now there are not very high odds of a September hike. At this point it's like 30%. But I do think that a hot CPI read could maybe start to shift that, and it's going to of course have an impact on the market's willingness to take risk, right? So, it's going to be important to pay attention to that. The caveat to that though, the caveat to that is that if you go look at oil prices, oil prices have been pulling back. So, if we look at the month of August alone, oil prices went to the month of August at about $87 a barrel. They're already at $77 a barrel. Meaning that the data that gets pulled from July is going to be in this pump, but we've already started pulling back. So, I'm not quite sure that it's going to have a major impact on the market. Hence again why I said I don't think this is going to be a crazy week in the market, but it does just feed the market a bit of extra input, extra information going into the September Fed meeting. It's just a month or so away, all right? So, going to be a bit important. I am going to watch this. I'll make a update for you all on the data itself, kind of what comes in and how the market responds to it. But in general, we're going to be looking for about 3.4% headline CPI, 2.5% core CPI, and then of course we do get PPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. push that. I'll talk about that later in the week. These are the big numbers that we want to look for, and it will be interesting to see if they do come in. I mean, dude, if we're seeing core CPI come in at 2.5% that's not bad. That's really not far off the Fed's 2% target. Right now, I know they're looking at headline, but core CPI could be coming in pretty soon here lower than it has in years, and that'd be very interesting. And then I mean, say we do have 3.4%, but realistically that is with an elevated oil price going into the the August reading. If oil does continue in this trajectory. I mean, you could be looking at this bad boy going back into the twos again. And this one maybe even having an you know, 2.4, 2.3, right? So, could be moving in the right direction here with CPI. And I do think if we come in um better than expected here on CPI, it is going to make the market feel good because you know what they're going to say? They're going to go, "Dude, we beat expectations on CPI." And that's whenever we saw oil prices flying. Imagine what it's going to look like now that oil prices are coming back, right? I think that's going to be very optimistic for the market. But if it comes in worse than expected, I still don't think the market's going to care because they're like, "Ah, well, it doesn't matter because it was during that pump." You know, so, I don't think this is going to move the market much, but I do think the market cares. So, definitely going to be worth watching. Remember, we'll be on a live stream when that happens. I try always to go as live as many days as possible. My goal is to go live Monday through Friday at least once just so that we can make sure that you guys are up to date. So, make sure that you turn on those notifications so you don't miss a live stream. But, with that in mind, those are the two big things that we're paying attention to. Let's go ahead now and jump into the charts and let me show you what's going to happen on the charts while we do have CPI and while we do have earnings. So, when it comes to the charts, the major thing that we're going to be paying attention to is SPY and its interaction with the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level. So, if that sounds complicated, let me explain it to you like this. Over the last few days, SPY saw a nice pop, right? And it pumped all the way up into what is called an extension zone, which is this green box right up here. This extension zone is very important because this extension zone is what you call a seller zone. This is where the sellers will step in and try to push SPY's price back down. It's just historically what they have done. And if you consider the fact that if I turn on the toolkit and we look, considering the fact that the HCI is now at a plus four as SPY is pushing into a seller zone, that is a warning sign. And that makes you go, "Okay, listen. SPY easily could try to continue upwards, but it's going to be hard. It's not going to be easy. There's going to be a lot of danger here. A lot of sellers are going to be selling." The last time that we were up at this all-time high, that HCI, look at this number right here, was sitting at a 3.37. We're higher than that already as we're approaching the seller zone, which means there's going to be danger here, folks. There's going to be a lot of danger here, and you're going to want to watch it very, very, very closely, okay? So, with that in mind, when I look at SPY, the whole game really becomes, do we break into the seller zone or not? Because if we open up on Monday and we immediately start pulling back, well, guess what? You're probably going to see SPY coming back down to these um these lower levels, right? You're probably going to see SPY coming back down to like 760, 755, reapproaching them to try to establish support. Breaking into this thing though, man, we might see SPY continue upwards and maybe even try to push into a $800 towards the end of the week. So, it's going to be a very, very big moment here on the charts, and it's going to definitely impact the decisions that I'm making in my own portfolio, which we'll talk about in a second here. So, for SPY, the whole game is it does it break into the 772 level and start pushing up higher into it, the buyers keep taking over, or do the sellers step in and start pushing it down? Hard to tell now, I'm not exactly sure. I'll keep you updated on Monday, okay? Now, it's not just SPY though, we're also seeing that on individual stocks like Nvidia. What you can see here is that Nvidia is now back into the golden zone. You see this level between $225 and $217, this is called the golden zone, and it's a major resistance zone, another seller zone. This is where the sellers are going to start trying to push Nvidia's price down. They're not going to want the buyers to get it through this because it'll have conquered a very important zone. Because the thing is, if Nvidia is capable of breaking above 225, it's more than reasonable to assume it's at least coming retest the all-time high, if not breaking through it and going towards 250 bucks. You could be looking at an Nvidia going to a $250 all-time high if it takes out this golden zone at 225. So, it's going to be very, very important over the first 24 to 48 hours that the market is open this week to see how we interact with the top side of the gold the golden zone. Rejection here could get a little ugly, right? You could end up seeing Nvidia coming back down to like $200 or maybe even lower. I don't think that's super likely because Nvidia does have a lot of bullish momentum here. But only [clears throat] time will tell. So, I'll keep you updated. But if you're an Nvidia holder or just an AI investor in general, you're going to want to watch very, very closely what happens here in this golden zone for Nvidia. Ranges between 225 and 217. It's going to tell us everything we need to know. For the time being, while it's right here, Nvidia is a hold. This is not a buy. This is a sell if you're a swing trader. If you scoop these lows and you wrote it to the top, this is your sell zone because this is a resistance zone and your HCI is nearing the plus four territory. This is where you would take profits on a swing trade, but that's very short-term. If you're mid- to long-term holder, now is a hold and see how it interacts with the golden zone before making a move. Okay? Um and the same thing kind of goes with Spy. Spy is a hold right now. It's either it's a sell if you scoop the lows down here and you wrote it up. This is where I'd be selling. If I'm a long-term and mid-term investor, I'm holding. All right? It also applies to things like Micron. If we look at Micron, what you can see is that Micron is now at the top side of its descending channel. I've told you guys very clearly, I do not buy at the top sides of these structures. There's too much danger. You see how we got rejected right here and crashed? The same thing could happen. Micron could get rejected right here and dump all the way back down to like 650 bucks. So, because of that, I definitely would not be purchasing right here in my own portfolio. Remember, and I'm just talking about myself. I'm not a financial advisor. I'm literally just a brown dude in a purple room somewhere randomly in Texas. Don't listen to me. I don't know what I'm talking about. But nonetheless, what you can see here is again, it's at the top side of the structure. There's a lot of danger up there, so you're going to want to be very, very careful. If I'm buying Micron, I'm waiting for it to break that structure first. I'm waiting for it to get out of the structure first to at least open up the door to the upside. Because while it's in the structure, it's destined to go down. Be very careful here with Micron. You're going to want to see how it tests that resistance. And to kind of, you know, get out of the world of semis, for example, what we can look at is something like Microsoft. Microsoft is also at the top side of its golden zone just like Nvidia so the same rules apply. Amazon is a bit in a in a bit of a different situation. It is pulling back right now, but time will kind of tell how that plays out. Um something like SoFi, SoFi is nearing it's still nearing the seller zone up here the red line. I've told you all I don't do any buying any anywhere close to this red line up here. I'm only [snorts] buying SoFi in this green territory. We got purchases off right here, rode that puppy up. Now we're just going to sit on those profits on SoFi and kind of just see what happens, right? Does it come up and finally break this red line or not? That'll tell us everything we need to know, but in the for the time being SoFi is a hold, definitely not a buy for me at $18.38, okay? So when it comes to my actual portfolio, I'm really doing a lot of holding this week. I don't really intend on doing much. Last week we did get off a couple trades. We of course did get that 17% gain there on SpaceX. We got that decent little 9% gain there on Micron as well. We got a 42% gain there on on SanDisk also. So we did get some pretty decent gains here in the market last week on some swing trades. I'm probably not going to do much swing trading this week. Probably not going to do much buying this week either. I'm really just going to hold it out. If we do see a pullback like let's say we do see spy get you know a rejection here and come back to say 760, 755. Yeah, I may be willing to dollar cost average in cuz I do have cash available still 5500 bucks, but it would take a pullback for me to start getting some buys going. Outside of that I'm just not really interested in buying as now we're pushing up into resistance. The whole game plan now is all right, we did our buys, rode it up to resistance. Now let's see if it can break the resistance or not. If it pulls back, I'll go against the grain and I'll accumulate, but if it keeps going I'll just let those profits ride for a little bit, okay? So I'll keep you updated as it plays out there. Do not forget I have two things for you. If you are doing technical analysis, don't forget guys this um meter that you see right here where basically when the price goes up as the price goes up the meter goes up and as the price goes down the meter goes down. I basically look to purchase anytime it's plus four or higher and sell anytime it's minus four or lower. This meter is a part of the TH toolkit, which is a toolkit that I personally developed that does my technical analysis for me. It shows me where the buyer zones are, the seller zones are, if we're too high, if we're too low. Um that's available for you through the link to the toolkit is down below. And also a side note, I do all of my trading over on Liquid. We are going to be doing a very, very nice big giveaway very soon here, so stay tuned for this. But this is a great platform. It's where I personally do again all of my little swing trades. So I'll leave this link for you all down below. Please do make sure that you use my referral link, which is down below, because I am an affiliate partner of theirs. It's great for me, it's great for you. You get rewards and I get rewards. So if you are someone who is trading, check out that link down below. But with that in mind, that is about it for this week. Again, not a crazy week whatsoever. An interesting week for sure. Infrastructure AI, CPI data, major decisions being made on the charts in terms of resistance. Going to be an important week to pay attention to, but definitely one that you can kind of take a couple deep breaths on, relax a little bit. Maybe don't need to go as a stress-o mode, all right? So going to be a bit of a decent time to get a little relaxation in. I know I for sure am for the rest of Sunday night. Again, a pretty uh pretty hectic weekend for you boy. These These These These um how do you say it? These fight trips, they get a little stressful, all right? They They get a little bit stressful. My adrenaline gets going, especially when you get back to the house at 2:00 p.m. or 2:00 a.m. and you got to drive back home and get a little stressful. So looking forward to get a little bit of a relaxation in. So I'm going to plug I'm going to unplug for the rest of the night, spend some time with my wife, spend some time with the animals, and I'll be back here in the morning, all right? So I hope you guys have an absolutely fantastic day and uh yeah, I think that's all I got for you guys. See you all in the next one. Peace out, everybody.