Alibaba, Viking, Walmart Chart Key Moving Averages Ahead Of Earnings | IBD

Hey everyone and welcome to Earnings Cheat Sheet for Friday, August 14th. It's Alexis Garcia and Ed Carson here and we'll be taking a look at some key upcoming earnings reports to help you prepare for the week ahead. So Ed, I thank you to you and Ali for holding the ship down last week while I was taking a bit of a breather, but earnings are continuing, so what do you have for us today? >> Yeah, I want to take a look at Alibaba, Viking Holdings and Walmart sort of headlines a slew of retailers. >> Yeah, well let's start with Alibaba, which is scheduled to post fiscal Q1 earnings on Thursday, August 20th. Earnings for the Chinese tech giant are projected to fall 28% to $1.49 per share. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to climb 15% to $39.8 billion. And here's why we're watching Alibaba. We'll want to see if Alibaba is finally turning on losses from its food delivery battle with JD and Meituan. And will it increase spending on AI? Alibaba's also entering an open weight model competition. It's latest Qwen model trails only Anthropic's top offering in performance according to some benchmarking. So we'll want to get some details on how the company is monetizing its AI model investments. And Ed, that open-source Qwen AI model has made some major enterprise gains as well. It's been integrated into Apple's Siri writing tools for Mac users in China and also being used in beta testing for Tesla vehicles for voice recognition in the region. So perhaps some wins there for Alibaba, but what's on your radar? >> Yeah, I mean we do want to see this transition and talked about, you know, last quarter they had a 95% EPS drop and I think it was 70% the prior quarter. So while it may not look great, this is there's you know, it could be a big increase there and yet sign of that and I think earnings are supposed to turn positive again in the following quarter. So, that is something that you know, investors want to be looking for. Yes, and so getting past those food delivery costs which just are so intense and I honestly I think investors would love for them to stop be doing that and focusing on cloud computing and such, but this is that's where a lot of the cloud computing and AI that's been a growth area and so yeah, want to see that turnaround. Is it really going to get there back into back into that kind of mode cuz it's been a it's been a tough tough stretch of quarters for Alibaba. >> Yeah, it's been tough fundamentals wise, but looking at the chart at Alibaba, looks like it's trying to break a slump here. Um, having some V-shape action with the chart since hitting a low of 91.99 on June 26th. It's gotten back above the 50. It's testing the 21-day line, but seems like maybe the 200-day or this 146 level at probably an area of resistance to watch as Alibaba tries to climb back up here. So, what are your thoughts with the chart? >> Yeah, I think you're getting above those short-term levels, the 200-day line and that that 146 level and if you went all the way over to the prior base of 148. So, it's there's a whole area in there. So, that whole spot, I wouldn't mind if it ran up to say 150 or 160 and then paused. Uh, this is also a stock I mean, this seems low cuz it has made a run. Uh, but the last couple times it's moved, it's moved off the 200-day line or close to it and then it fades. So, this doesn't seem like a stock you want to buy on a breakout or you want to buy it early, but since this one fell so much below the 200-day line, it doesn't seem like getting above the that would be make me give me pause. It's like it's not yes, this is where it's made runs before, but that's where it found support before. This is already gone up a lot. So, it's going to take a lot of work. I I this one needs to make a move and then pause and then something if for for something to to look really attractive to me. I mean, it could work, sure, just like if you bought at the bottom, it works. If any anything can work, but it uh it just seems higher risk until you get a little bit more movement. And this report will be could be very hopeful in seeing that transformation in terms of or at least the path to transformation going. >> And just switching over to the weekly, Ed, uh we can see Alibaba uh again inching up to that 40-week moving average. Uh but yeah, having uh having a tough time uh since the beginning of 2026 here. We see a had a break of that 40-week line uh back here in February. Uh continued to drifted lower, but hopefully finding its footing now. Um so, any thoughts here uh with the more longer-term picture? >> Yeah, I think it's There was all that trading around that 140 150 area where it struggled. That's where I think it'd be nice to get above and then pause and then go. But, you can see that RS line hit a long-time low. I mean, it hadn't been doing great before, but that really sold off. And have to remember, there were a lot of stocks in the AI AI was doing great. And there's so much cl- Because of all those losses in food delivery, the gains that they were getting in cloud computing and AI, it just don't care. I mean, there had previously, oh, they're doing AI. Oh, they're doing this. And then like these huge losses were coming in. So, when you put it in the perspective of how uh you know, a lot of the cloud and AI stocks are doing, it's just really tough. And so, you'd like to see a track record come back. That earnings line just fell off a cliff. It just fell off. It's supposed to rebound. Uh I would really want to see that back in in growth mode. >> All right. Well, let's go ahead and move on to Viking Holdings, which is expected to report Q2 results on Wednesday, August 19th. Earnings for the cruise company are expected to rise 27% to $1.26 per share. Revenue is projected to climb 14% to $2.14 billion. And here's where we're watching Viking. Uh, we'll be looking at booking levels. Fuel costs, of course, are going to be in focus. Uh, Viking is adding a lot of ships by the year end. Uh, that should boost capacity. It'll also be the first report under the helm of new CEO, Leah Talactac. She had been the president and CFO previously. Uh, you know, while, uh, these mass market cruise lines, uh, have been vulnerable to discretionary spending, it seems like Viking's core demographic, which is, uh, you know, those affluent, uh, older travelers, um, has shown persistent demand. It seems to be a pretty resilient demographic there. So, what are you looking at in terms of Viking? >> Yeah, when you think about it, you think about uh, older Americans with that that have big fat stock portfolios, uh, you know, that's that's a pretty good demographic. That's that has been outpacing inflation, uh, the S&P 500. So, yeah, uh, Viking stands apart and there is some positive signs for like this has held up extremely well when oil prices have surged and then gone on runs when oil prices has has fallen. It's just been one of these things that has done very well. There's other travel names that are doing well, but this has been one of the very strongest, uh, out there. So, uh, yeah, want to see that kind of that pace, you know, like see if the trends are continuing, um, and yeah, it stands apart. It's not just that it's affluent. You said others are more mass market in the sense of you got rowdy, boisterous crowds and kids, and Viking doesn't have that. So, it also differentiates there. So, even though I think one of the other rivals is going to do river boat cruises. They might not be the same kind of cruise that would attract Viking customers. >> And let's go ahead and look at the chart ad cuz Viking has had a pretty nice run since April with a breakout above the 8148 level. Uh it's largely respected that 21-day moving average. Uh it's been testing it lately. Uh looks like some potential cup action here at uh But what are your thoughts here? Because if you're in the stock, uh do you perhaps hold? Do you maybe think of taking profits? Um and how would you look at maybe adding a position or getting in post earnings? >> Yeah, this is sort of it's a little bit tough because I mean one reason why we have the 20% hold, you know, sell rule for stocks that have sort of gradually made their way up there is, you know, that's often a place where they'll pause or go back. And it has paused. And so you can say, "Well, we've gotten past that." But another reason is is that honestly a lot of stocks seem to go up about 20% in between earnings reports and then the earnings report comes in. And that could be a sell signal. Who knows? But so, you know, if you're comfortable with that, you think this is going on it should be enough of a cushion. This I mean while might me personally I've had stocks that have given up 20% cushions in the last few months. That probably isn't Viking. That doesn't mean it can't have a really bad day. Uh so it's just a matter of that. Uh yeah, on a weekly basis it's sort of trading pretty tightly. So it seems like maybe there'd be an add-on buy point or you know, even a new entry cuz you could sort of treat the last several weeks as a as sort of a range. You know, tried to peak above then oil prices came back up. So it's all been trading up pretty well in that area. Maybe it dips to the 10-week line. That could also be a place to start a new position if it bounces off of that on earnings. So yeah, this has been strong. You know, like the RS line hasn't been like going vertical, but it's been gradually rising. You know, it's you know, you just sort of that's been a nice steady trend. That's been sort of cruising upward. I mean it's not something you go, "Wow, let me show you the photos of this RS line." But, it's like you go you go from point A to point B, and you've gone a long way. Uh and and the generally it's held up pretty well. The The corrections have not been about it's I don't know what it's ATR is. Actually, it's only like 3%. So, a non-tech stock with an ATR below 3% that outperforms the market really nice for diversity. So, I think investors should be having it on their radar. It may not provide a good opportunity but it certainly could. >> We'll be keeping an eye on that, Ed. So, uh earnings come, what are you going to be looking at then uh immediately after earnings with the chart? >> Uh yeah, I mean, just want to see well, it depends did it pull back to the 50-day or 10-week line? Or if it's holds around here, let's say it holds around here. If it makes a nice move, you know, if it gets towards the book of gets close to highs, I think that'd be enough cuz it's sort of breaking that little downtrend. That whole area, you could probably buy it if it gaps up to if it gaps a little bit above highs. At that point, I think it'd be getting pretty high for me uh on a gap up. But, yeah, I think that would be some opportunities in the in there, you know, the in that in that space from where it is now to maybe new just above new highs as a place to enter or add. >> All right, Ed. Well, let's go ahead and move on to Walmart, which will report earnings on Thursday, August 20th. The retailer is expected to see Q2 earnings rise 9% to 74 cents per share with revenue also rising 5% to $186.73 billion. And here's why we're watching Walmart. Uh consumer health and spending trends will be the key here. We'll want to know how consumers are handling high gas prices. That's especially relevant to retailers generally right now. Uh Walmart Plus has been strong as well in terms of business segment. And we'll also be looking at advertising and third-party marketplace revenue streams. Um so yeah, Ed, I mean high inflation and interest rates um are continuing to squeeze middle and higher income households. Uh we're looking at that trade down effect if they're going to Walmart for groceries and essentials. I think investors will want to see if uh the company is still capturing that demographic. >> Yeah, and it's just sort of can they maintain that growth? The last earnings report was a negative reaction to things. We'll take a look at the chart in a minute, I know, but it's uh yeah, I want to see that back on track cuz it is there's a lot of mixed things like, you know, if people go more to the staples where the margins might be lower. People might be shopping at Walmart but not shopping at things that have high profitability. Uh but Walmart's kicking off a lot earning. So this is that's all the things what they're saying about consumers and where they're shifting and all that stuff. Really, you know, really important to how things are. Job growth hasn't been that strong. But that's probably because it's a small the labor force is shrinking. So uh wage growth has been just sort of even with inflation at best the last few months. Is that taking a toll? Uh yeah, all just all those things really important uh not just for Walmart but for the whole sector. >> Yeah, and Ed, if we look at the chart, we can see Walmart really gapped down here uh last earnings uh had about a 7.3% drop um after that report. It's been uh trailing. It's been trying to find its footing. It's regained the 21 and 50-day line, had a really nice gain of about 2.4% on August 12th. So getting back above some key moving averages here Ed. Uh but thoughts here? What what are you looking at in terms of the chart action? >> Yeah, this one a few things. This is just was just just really tough action here. I mean it really sold off after last earnings report. And honestly, this one had a pretty rich valuation given that's growth rates. But I think part of it was like, "Okay, this is something you can count on." So it's sort of a double whammy. When you couldn't count on it, it's like, "Well, why are we valuing it this much?" Uh so it really took a hit. And that's happened to some other big, you know, steady retailers. Uh that one's yeah, so coming back. I think this needs to get back not just about the 200 line. I would personally like it to see it start filling the gap of that gap down. At least get above the top of that day, like get above 120. And set up again. And that, you know, that's sort of getting back to it. And then pause or some such form something. But yeah, that was not good action. Uh again, the sales growth had sort of been picking up. But, you know, so there was some some positive in there, but they were I can't remember the details on it, but, you know, sometimes the fundamentals aren't what knock it. It's the outlook and other things. And so the stocks will peak well before the fundamentals deteriorate. Not that this was rip-roaring, but yeah, I can't you know, will they have they done things that make you feel more confident that that growth can, you know, will be strong enough to justify another run. >> All right. So we'll be looking at this 125 area then. Looking for Walmart to get back above that and set up. I'm just going to switch quickly to the weekly, Ed. Any other additional thoughts here? We can see right now it's at the 10-week line. But yeah, any other thoughts with Walmart before we move on? >> Yeah, and this is great to point out to you. Well, it's I often miss it when it happens, but others, you know, but David Ryan I'm sure would have noticed that hey they're all when it tried to break out, you can see that down week down on earnings. You can sort of spot that week. It was sort of getting around a buy point, but the RS line wasn't matching. You know, the RS line had actually gone on a mini run for like a year. Uh not not amazing, but there was a bit of an uptrend, you know, and even longer term there'd been a bit of an uptrend. But when it tried to move out or was starting to try to break out, it clearly wasn't matching. You know, it was even trending it and so So it's really fallen off since then. But you could say even then it wasn't really going. Uh so that RS line just being weak. I think it's just there's not a lot of excitement about this name and I think that there's probably people feel like there's other safer places to go right now. >> All right. Well, those were the big ones on our list this week Ed, but let's move on. As you mentioned, there's a ton of retailers reporting next week. Let's look at Target Ed. Doing pretty well here. Looks a little bit extended. It broke out back here on June 12th, cleared a 133.10 buy point. It's now getting getting closer to this profit zone Ed, but what are your thoughts here with Target? >> Yeah, it's extended. Uh so we'll see how it goes. I mean it's got turn around and I think it'll go and fall and fall and fall for so long. Uh and then beyond that yeah, it goes on and on. It has really sold off since like 2021. Uh so uh a long way to go in that front. And so there's been the real struggles that it you know, earnings are are picking up this year after falling the prior 2 years and so that's where that how much more is it going to go now? Cuz it's it's almost doubled from the lows from late 2025. And the growth is picking up. It's not amazing growth, especially given that it's a turnaround. I mean there was that nice pop this one time or like this one time 32%, but it's going to be slower. So that's the thing is is this sustainable at this point given that it's going to go more towards slower growth. Uh but it's made a really nice nice comeback. That's for sure the last several months. >> Yeah, let's take a look at Home Depot Ed. This one in a base with a 358.85 buy point. It's having some trouble here regaining the 200-day line. But this one has also been in a downtrend but will be important in terms of health of a consumer and a little bit of a look at the housing market as well. >> Yeah, I think the pro market, the professionals, that's been holding up better less than versus D yourself, but this is technically close to a buy point. It was a you know, there had been a prior uptrend. There are some things, but yeah, it's fallen off. Interest rates are just so important on here and it it's also just in this kind of environment. I think this can consumer discretionary spending has been just a little soft. So, yeah, an important thing here, but it definitely doesn't seem weak and the relative strength line is it's been really weak for a while, which is not, you know, given the downtrend of the stock. >> Yeah, let's look at Lowe's as well and in the same area. Also in a downtrend well below its 200-day line. It's testing the 21 and 50-day lines converging here now, but the same story at just giving a snapshot basically into into the consumer. >> Yeah, and this is weaker. The stock is weaker than Home Depot, so yeah, this lot of repair work for this one. >> All right, how about we take a look at Ross Stores? This one has been in a nice uptrend since basically last year. It is now below the 21-day line but talk to me about this one cuz it's not too far off highs. It sold off the last four days or so, but what are you looking at in terms of Ross? >> Yeah, I mean on a weekly you can see a base, but it's you can sort of see the recent highs there that So, there is a base. It's fallen back to the buy point. That's not great to see it fall back, but there could be a buying opportunity on this one. This one has sort of taken the lead in the off-price segment and yeah, I've been acting well. We'll see. This I mean for recent buyers, they might want to say, well, I'm round tripping, but it could provide a buying opportunity off earnings. We'll just have to see. >> All right, how about we look at TJX earnings there on August 19th. This one's in a cup with handle with a 163.04 buy point, but some steep sharp selling here over the last week. So, talk to me about this one. It also looks like it's been having trouble advancing. It seems to base and then will base again. So, thoughts here with TJX. >> Yeah, breakouts have not worked for this name for a while. The RS line has been weak. On a weekly, I think the RS line, you know, is sort of testing like 52-week lows, you know, kind of thing. So, Ross is much stronger. I mean, obviously it could turn around, but pretty, you know, it's much easier to absorb a 4% off record highs rather than a 5 or 6% weekly drop below the 50-day, you know, below 10-week and 40-week lines. It's a lot more damaging. >> All right, how about we wrap up the retail portion of this with a look at BJ's Wholesale. This one with earnings on August 21st. This is in a base with a 105.78 buy point. It's had a bit of a a rocky ride here over the last few weeks. It's above the 200-day line, but again, talk to me about BJ's Wholesale cuz we've seen again some some selling here in the last week. >> Yeah, I mean, I think those short-term highs from a couple weeks ago, that could be an area. I mean, but it's a it's a messy-looking chart. I mean, so well, there's a lot of resistance sort of in this base, you know, on that vaguely that area, but I don't like that chart. So, even if it came back up, I don't like it. >> All right, well, let's get out of retail. Let's look at Analog Devices. Earnings there due on August 18th. This one in consolidation with a 445.91 pivot. It's had some nice moving off the bottom here. Looks like it's now 50-day line would be the next uh here for ADI. So, thoughts here? >> It says several quarters of accelerating growth on the on the EPS and revenue side. I think that's expected to that might well that might can might stop this time though. A a decent beat could see that again um on that. So, you know, this is not the exciting AI just but I think there's been an AI play to it even so. The 50-day line. It's got to get above 50-day line and then maybe that 400, you know, that uh that uh level from a few weeks ago that just above the 400 level. That might be providing opportunity there. Um RS line has come off. It's you know, again, a lot of stocks we're seeing bouncing off their lows but coming up to the 50-day line or coming up to short-term highs just just above the 50-day line. This could be but this is a place where things could go long. This could be place for people to go short and that's uh so, we'll see how earnings go. >> All right. How about we take a look now at Nordson Corp. Uh they're uh engineer company. Uh this one technically in a buy zone here. We had a flat base with a 307.74 buy point. Uh it's looks like it's hanging out right in that area, Ed. So, potentially actionable here ahead of earnings. >> Yeah, it's had a little bit of acceleration on the uh on the EPS front. I think the last quarter sales as well. It's not going to be like amazing but uh this one could do all right. It's had a decent RS thing, you know, RS move over this past year or so but before that it was struggling. So, can it make can it continue, you know, with that kind of thing? I don't know, but it's uh yeah, it could be actionable. There are definitely some general machinery general industrial machinery names that have been doing well recently. >> All right. Uh let's go ahead and look at uh John Deere. We're talking about machinery. Uh this one with earnings on August 20th. Again, another one here in a pretty long consolidation with a 674 at 19 buy point ed. Looks like it's gotten above the 21-day line trying to hold there tightening up here. So, it thoughts here with deer. >> Yeah, people been betting on a a turnaround for a long time for deer. This and the the earnings losses have shrunk and uh the only ones I get and so it could turn a profit, you know, turn gross to return to gross. It's certainly supposed to return to growth the the following quarter, but yeah, it's just uh if you get above those short-term highs, maybe again, I just don't know. Uh and you know, oil price fertilizer costs which sort of related to the Iran war, that's an issue. That could be a surprise. Uh and there's but uh yeah, so we'll see. I I don't really like the base. I'll be honest. It's just sort of wide and loose. Um prefer much tighter bases. >> All right, well, let's go ahead and wrap up with a look at Toll Brothers ed. Uh this is an early housing uh stock here. So, we'll get some good information here. This technically is in a cup with handle base with a 166 23 buy point, but pretty messy handle. Uh we had this sharp decline here uh in the month of uh June through July. But again, trying to uh study itself. Looks like it's been trading in a range and it is now below the 50-day line. So, another one that needs to retake a key moving average. >> Yeah, I mean, this is in the luxury space. So, it's a little more affluent buyers like closer to million-dollar homes. Uh so, a little bit you know, resistant to things, but yeah, interest rates are such an issue. I mean, it sold off in part because of because of treasury yields rising and that's just something that's really hard to fight. Uh and it's hard to, you know, so if that does move, I suppose if you got excited, if you thought, "Okay, yields are falling and has good earnings." If it gets above, say, that that 100 level of resistance about there, uh maybe, but it just yeah, hasn't, you know, how home builders have really struggled to put on uh a good performance for a while. And again, because interest rates have been trending up, I think it's been a major factor. And also, cost like there's, you know, lumber costs and you know, labor costs that have been that probably various policies have probably pushed up uh the costs of. So, it's it's been a tough business. >> All right. Well, we'll be looking at that 150 level there. Ed, uh thanks so much for your insights. We really appreciate it. >> Thank you, Alexis. >> All right. That wraps it up for this episode of Earnings Cheat Sheet. If you want more market analysis, be sure to tune in to Stock Market Today. That goes live after the closing bell, and we'll be back with more next week. So, we'll see you then.