The Stock Market is about to MOVE BIG.. (Nvidia Earnings)

In the next 37 seconds, I will tell you exactly what you need to know heading into tomorrow morning and your major catalyst ahead over the next 24 to 48 hours. And throughout this video, we will break them down individually, my expectations for these catalysts and how they are going to affect the markets. But we do have big news that could come out at any moment that could change everything. And we'll talk about that as well in this video. So, here's what we're going to talk about in today's video. First and foremost, PCE tomorrow morning. How can this move the markets? What am I expecting? What is Wall Street expecting? Number two, Nvidia earnings tomorrow in after hours as well. These are the main things we're going to talk about in this video because they are coming the quickest. I'm going to share with you what Wall Street is expecting from Nvidia earnings, what I'm expecting, and how the markets are likely to take those earnings. Are stocks going higher or lower following Nvidia earnings? We will answer the question of that in this video. Number two, big software earnings Wednesday and Thursday. Am I still bullish on software or not? Number three, Kevin Walsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and the annual non-farm payroll revisions. I'll share my thoughts around these and whether or not they're going to move the markets higher or lower. And then obviously your big news that could be coming at any moment and how that will move markets. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining me today. The only thing that I ask you to do is hit the like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to see it. And if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, we are up 87% year to date. We are beating Wall Street to the opportunity. It's as simple as that. You want to be first before Wall Street figures it out. That's how we are up 87% year to date, which is insane. and I think that's outperforming every hedge fund or institution in the stock market. That link is down below if you guys would like to come join us. Okay, so tomorrow morning you're actually going to get quite a bit of big economic data. It's not just PCE that could move the markets even though PCE is going to be the biggest set of data. You will also get durable goods orders, your second estimate for Q2 GDP, personal income and personal spending among smaller data sets as well. Now, let's start with PCE. The expectations are around 0.18% month overmonth. Last month, you were at 0.1%. PCE has actually been in a pretty good place um for a while now. Outside of the May number, I mean PCE is actually pretty low. Your your PCE report for June was 0.1%. That is the lowest it has been in the past 12 months. I mean, if you look at the past 3 years, there's only a couple of months that actually, you know, are 0.1%. Most months fall around 0.2 or 0.3%. Now, tomorrow, again, you're expecting 0.18%. It does not come in at a round number. It comes in, you know, at a decimal point and then it gets rounded up or rounded down. So, in a positive scenario, we come in at like 0.14% and get rounded down to 0.1. That would be really good. But even if we come in at 0.2%, you could still beat the expectation, even though it looks like it's in line with expectation. So, you always want to go to the actual um website and look at it for yourselves to find the decimal point, not just the round number. From a market perspective, if PCE comes in high tomorrow, personal consumption expenditure is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. The markets are not going to take that well in the context of everything else going on in the stock market right now. And PCE is really the most straightforward uh thing of this video, right? If it comes in high, that's bad. If it comes in low, that's good. Durable goods orders month overmonth are expected to be 0.7%. Just the overall trend recently for the economy has been a little on the softer side. So durable goods orders, you actually want this to come in worse than expected. A a a really good number for durable goods orders is not going to be seen as a great thing for the markets. We're kind of in the 2022 environment again where a good jobs report or, you know, something that shows the economy is doing really well is actually a negative for the markets because it's it means the Fed's going to have to be more hawkish, right? So, we're kind of in the 2022 playbook. You don't want something that looks recessionary, but you also don't want something that looks really strong either. Moving on from that, we're going to get your second estimate for Q2 GDP. Again, you want something that is okay, not too good or not too bad. Last month or last quarter, we were at 2.1%. You're expecting 1.5% for this report. That's that's pretty good. >> Anything below 1% might be a little bit of a red flag. Anything above, >> you know, one and a half or 2% is probably going to be seen as negative. Now, personal income month over month, that's expected at 0.2%. Consensus is there's not a lot of inflation coming from the labor market. So, I don't think that matters all too much unless it were to like skyrocket or something. Personal spending month overmonth, again, you're expecting this at 0.1%. Last month was 0.3%. You want to see a low number, preferably even negative, to really get the Fed off your back. But before we talk about Nvidia earnings, I do want to talk about this big news that is coming at any moment. It was reported today that Iran and Oman have come to an agreement to open shipping lanes in the straight of Hermoose and that information has been passed along to the United States government and Trump. So Trump right now really is going to decide whether or not the straight of Hermoose opens with no tolls as far as we know or if economic D-Day and the the tactics that the US is using are going to continue. And depending on what happens here in the next coming hours and days with this Iranian conflict, it kind of changes everything because if the conflict ends, oil falls, inflation expectations fall, the Fed's not going to be a super hawk in that scenario. You don't have to see economic data that's terrible. You don't have to see a labor market that is bad, right? As long as inflation is coming down and oil comes down and inflation expectations come down, that would be a huge positive catalyst for the markets heading into your other major catalyst later this week that we're going to talk about throughout this video. So, I don't know what's going to happen with this Iran conflict, but step one is done. Iran and Oman have agreed on shipping lanes in the straight of mammoose. The question is does Trump want to open the straight of moose? And I will tell you just as a quick note on that a couple of weeks ago Donald Trump said he'd be willing to walk away from the Iran conflict altogether just leave the region if the straight of moose open. So you've already kind of heard Trump's answer to this. Now before we talk specifically about Nvidia earnings, I just want to tell you there is massive earnings beyond Nvidia. You have a lot of software this week. Like today in after hours you had earnings from Intuitit and Zoom if you technically want to call them software. Wednesday and after hours alongside Nvidia, Salesforce Crowdstrike Octa Synopsis Viva, um some others. Thursday you're going to have Autodesk Affirm Alt Beauty, Workday, Centennial One, Rubric, Elastic, and Gap. I mean even then cyber security Crowdstrike Octa Centennial One, Rubric, these are all cyber security companies that have a big waiting in, you know, some of your like IGV, some of your software indexes. So software stocks are going to move a lot here in the next 48 hours. And look, I will tell you that expectations are higher this quarter than they have been in the last couple of quarters. But the fear is still insane like from the you from your early reporters like a data dog right reported great numbers beat raise everything was great what happened data dog still sold off following earnings so I think there's a lot of fear out there there is a chance that you do get the you know sell the news reactions around some of these earnings but I think the bull case for software is very much alive and well now let's move into your big dog here which is Nvidia. I know a lot of you guys are very much invested in the AI hardware trade. Beyond Nvidia though, you also have you also have Marll and Iron reporting earnings Thursday and after hours. But Nvidia is really going to be your big dog. So, as far as Nvidia, you're expecting adjusted EPS of $29 and revenue of 92.07 billion. That would be a 97% year-over-year increase from 46.6 6 billion reported in the same quarter last year. This is also slightly higher than Nvidia's own conservative internal guidance of 91 billion plus or minus 2% provided in May. So, Wall Street, they always price in more um for Nvidia right now. Nvidia doesn't trade at the craziest valuation, but the real question is right now, how sustainable is the AI trade? And we actually have like a fundamental problem right now. Why? Because the cat's out the bag. There's $3 trillion of investment right now into hardware, into physical AI, and you know, that includes investment that is still yet to come, that is still coming and purchase commitments and lease liabilities. But nonetheless, it's around $3 trillion. Enthropic and OpenAI are some of the, you know, companies, the top one, two, you know, AI companies that are signing a lot of the the leases that are buying a lot of the chips and some of their revenue numbers that have recently come out have just been not great versus expectations. They missed essentially. And a lot of people are doubting that. Look, 65 billion in ARR for anthropic. 200 billion in ARR by 2028 is not going to sustain the AI trade in its current, you know, fashion, right? The aggressive investments that are taking place. I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but as of right now, unless there's another like chat GBT moment or something crazy happens for AI, there there is a mathematical problem here. there's not enough revenue coming in from OpenAI and Enthropic to really justify the sheer amount of capex and spending that is going to be taking place. Now, I will also tell you basically every AI company that that has reported earnings so far has sold off after earnings for the most part. I think like Cisco went up. There's there's been a couple oddballs here and there so far, but most of them have sold off even on better thanex expected earnings. Again, it is because you you kind of have fundamental concerns around the AI trade. So, Nvidia, I don't think Nvidia is going to give you a bad report. I think Nvidia is going to give you a good report, but I just don't see a scenario where Nvidia impresses enough to ignite the AI hardware trade. I'm kind of looking at Nvidia earnings from a broader market perspective as a neutral catalyst, something that doesn't do a whole lot. it's kind of priced in the stock goes up or down like 2% something like that or it is going to be a slight negative if Nvidia does not beat enough or does not raise enough. I think that could be a slight negative as well um for the entire AI complex and for your indexes. But I'm not expecting some kind of disaster on this earnings report. I don't think this is the quarter that Nvidia misses on earnings. Some top tier analysts such as such as those at Jeffre expect uh realized revenue to land closer to 95 billion for this quarter. So the company guided for 91 billion, they typically come in with a B about 2 billion above that. So even if Nvidia comes in with like 93 or 94 billion in revenue, that's probably going to be like not good enough, right? you probably need something closer to like a hundred billion to really give Nvidia upside following their earnings and that could be a little hard to deliver on. Now the consensus estimates for Q3 for next quarter sit at 104 billion. So if that's the estimate right now, Nvidia needs to come in with like 110 115 billion for the next quarter to actually impress on that. If Nvidia does the typical $2 billion beat, $2 billion raise, that would put Nvidia's revenue at about 93 billion for this quarter for the results Wednesday, which is less than, you know, some analysts are projecting. And then that would be 95 billion for Q3 revenue, which is a lot lower than 104 billion. So, I think you just really need to see a blowout quarter from Nvidia. Something that really surprises people to to kind of give you upside at this point. the options market is pricing in um up or down move of about 6 to 7% which would be $300 billion or more in market cap by Thursday morning. So the markets are pricing in quite a move for Nvidia and again I think it's going to be very hard to impress and the most the the path of least resistance is probably to the downside at this point but again if Nvidia sells off which I think is probably most likely again not a guarantee but most likely that would actually just shift capital into other areas. I think software could do well, financials cyclicals communication services, healthc care, nonAI, industrials. I think these areas could do much better if hardware does sell off following Nvidia earnings as again money shifts into other areas. Now, take this into consideration with the Iran war stuff. If the Iran war ends, at the same time, Nvidia earnings kind of come in on the weaker side, weaker than expected, that would really be a tailwind for the broadening trade. So, yeah, Nvidia definitely going to be a big catalyst as it really always is, especially for the headline markets because of the waiting that semiconductors now have in the markets. Now, let's move on to Kevin Walsh and the Jackson Hole speech Friday morning and the annual non-farm payroll re payroll revisions. Now, again, by Friday, we should have a little bit of an understanding to if the straighter moose is going to open or what's going to happen with oil and treasuries and how all of that's going to respond. We're going to know what software earnings look like. We're going to know what your PCE report and your other data looks like tomorrow. Okay? So, we're gonna have a lot of our catalyst out of the way. I do think the Jackson Hole speech, I don't think you're going to get any big surprise there. So, I think I think that's really a sell the rumor buy the news event because people are concerned, oh my gosh, Kevin War, he's going to be the Superhawk coming on Friday. I don't think so. I don't think we're going to get a lot of new information at all whatsoever. I think Kevin Wish is a dove. he just has to sound kind of hawkish because he just got the job as the Fed chair, right? So, I don't think we're going to hear anything new and definitely not more hawkish following, you know, recent data sets that have come out that have been good. Not, you know, we we are in no worse problem today than we were before. In fact, you'd make an argument that there's less of a need for rate hikes as of now. So, yeah, people are going to hear that speech and say it's good. It's bullish. It's not as bad as feared. And you know, I think Friday is going to be a pretty good day because of that. Now, the annual revision to payrolls. Here's the thing. Last year it was negative 911,000. You want a number that's not too good or not too bad. I don't know where that's going to land. And I think it's kind of an afterthought at the end of the day, right? like it doesn't matter all too much versus some of your other catalysts that we have throughout the next 48 hours. So, ladies and gentlemen, I don't know what's going to happen in the markets here. That's that's that's the the downside. I'm very bullish on the broadening trade, but look, what happens in the markets probably going is going to come down to the next Trump headline around the Iran war. If it ends, great. I think we're in a really good position. If it if it does not end, oil is going to go back up again. It was down about three and a half percent today. It's going to go back up tomorrow. Treasury yields are going to go back up tomorrow as well. Um Nvidia earnings, I think that's a slight negative. I don't think it's going to crash other areas of the markets no matter what. Um I think the broadening trade could get a bit of a boost if Nvidia has, you know, lackluster earnings. I think solidly the Kevin Worsh um Jackson Hole speech is going to be a positive for the markets. It's a sell the rumor buy the news kind of setup. That's obvious to see. So assuming things don't go too crazy over the next couple of days. I am actually quite optimistic as we head into Friday, right? As as long as things don't go bad before Friday, I think Friday is going to be a very strong day for the markets. With that said, ladies and gentlemen, let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next