URGENT WARNING for Investors... (BREAKING NEWS)

We have big news for the stock market today and we're going to get into that first things first in today's video, but I also want to give you a little bit of a warning heading into Nvidia earnings because it's going to get kind of insane. Ladies and gentlemen, before we just dive right into all of this, do me a quick favor and hit that like button for the YouTube algorithm to help push this video out to more people that need to see it. And look, we have a lot to discuss in this video. You had PCE this morning, GDP, personal income, personal spending, a lot of Trump news, Iran news, all kinds of different things. But I want to start this video off with a warning about Nvidia earnings because uh this is going to be a difficult quarter. And I just want to jump right into it. So, Nvidia, they gave you guidance of 91 billion for this quarter. Analysts are currently at about 92.2 billion. Nothing's crazy about that. Analysts tend to, you know, kind of price in a higher number than what the company gave you, right? That's not uncommon. Nvidia, they tend to beat and raise by about two to four billion dollars. Well, a lot of firms like Jefferies here, they're expecting 95 billion in revenue. That I'm not as concerned about this quarter's, you know, revenue number. You might come in at like 94, 95 billion, which would be, you know, probably not good enough to send the stock skyrocketing, but not enough to kill the stock either. The problem could be next quarter. So, next quarter, um the analyst consensus view is 104 billion. The some of your institutional banks like Bank of America, they're looking for guidance of 107 billion or higher. So, Nvidia, they set guidance for this quarter at 91 billion. If they come in at like 93, 94, billion 95 billion even let's say. It's going to be unlikely for Nvidia to set guidance for next quarter 10 to 12 billion higher. Like Nvidia again, they tend to do this two to four billion beat and raise kind of thing. Analysts are really expecting like a 10 to 12 billion guidance raised for next quarter. This is the put up or shut up kind of quarter for Nvidia and Wall Street. Considering all of the problems that we are currently having with the AI hardware trade. Nvidia earnings this is the big one. I mean after all, this comes at a time in which people are really fearful out there around the AI trade and for good reason, right? Anthropic was expecting 80 plus billion in ARR for their July report. They came in at what? 65 billion? That was a lot lower than expected. It throws into question how are these companies going to pay for future contracts and CapEx that hyperscalers are building today? Anthropic came out with an ARR target of 200 billion by 2028. The math is not mathing on multiple trillions of dollars worth of data center and CapEx investments. You also had OpenAI that posted revenue growth quarter over quarter of only 18%. So between OpenAI and Anthropic basically missing analyst or Wall Street targets for revenue that's your number one, number two AI companies. Those are the ones that are signing leases worth tens of billions of dollars with investor-funded capital, right? These companies are not paying for those leases with XAI and Oracle and Microsoft with cash flows or even revenue. They're paying for those leases with debt and stock issuance and doing all of these offerings and the upcoming anthropic scam IPO. That's how they're funding it. Well, as a consequence to that, you can see what is happening with CDSs. So, CDS spreads are indicating stress at some of the biggest companies in the world, okay? So, anything above 50 basis points is considered elevated risk. Anything between 50 and 100 is um kind of where Wall Street begins to get nervous, right? Anything above 100 basis points is severe stress. So, Oracle is at 210 basis points. What does that mean? That means there's a 2.1% chance that Oracle basically goes bankrupt over the next 20-30 years. Broadcom's at 1.26% Meta's at 1%. Look at Nvidia here, 0.85%. That is because Nvidia, especially in the latest quarter, has really come out to start, you know, financing and putting deals together for a lot of other AI companies to keep the circular financing alive. The Wall Street is rightfully so kind of nervous. If this is the the inflection moment where the AI trade begins to slow down, it could be a big problem for Nvidia. Now, look, I'm not going to say Nvidia's going to miss earnings or anything like that. Again, I think that is highly unlikely even at this stage, but the problem would be an indication that maybe open-source models are starting to weigh on demand for GPUs. Things like that. After all, Nvidia is basically racing to develop their own open-source model. You have also seen recently like the situational awareness fund blowing up and Jane Street losing $15 billion dollars the month of July. there has been a lot of pain in leveraged hardware stocks. And that's just going to keep people on the sidelines. Your Jane Streets of the world, they're not rushing back in to buy hardware stocks. So any weakness at all in Nvidia earnings is going to show up a lot more in the stock price this quarter than any other quarter you've seen in the past multiple years. And again, I've been nervous about the AI hardware trade ever since SanDisk was a $2,300 stock and I thought it was ridiculous. Um it's $1,500 today. You know, I've I've been nervous for a while. I haven't really liked hardware for a while. Expectations are too high. Positioning is too bullish. This is going to be a critical quarter from Nvidia. And while I am nervous, I'm not Well, I'm not nervous. I'm nervous for other people. Um this is going to be a make it or break it moment. And based on what happens, again, with Nvidia earnings today, you're going to see the markets move a lot from a headline index perspective. If Nvidia does have bad earnings, that could kind of accelerate the broadening trade. People are going to rush out of hardware. They're going to go into other areas. If Nvidia does somehow put up some crazy numbers and the stock does well, that could obviously reignite the AI hardware trade as well. I am I'm pretty doubtful that that will happen though because expectations are so high. You obviously want to be watching the 200-day moving average around $195 to the downside. And to the upside, really it's you know, the 230 level all the way to, you know, the 240s, which would be a new all-time high. But again, we do have a lot of other stuff to get into in this video, a lot of other news as well. So we will start here with core PCE month-over-month. It basically came in line with expectations, 0.2%. Wasn't wasn't abnormal at all. Durable goods orders month over month came in at 1.1%. That was better than the 0.5% number that we were expecting. GDP growth rate quarter over quarter second second estimate for Q2 came in at 1.5% in line with estimates. Personal income month over month came in at 0.4%. Better than the expected 0.2% and personal spending month over month came in at 0.2%. Better than the consensus of 0.1%. So, across the board, really just not shocking at all. Kind of in line with expectations. Again, slightly better across the board though. SoftBank today is in talks for a bond sale of up to $20 billion to refinance its Open AI loan. This is This is kind of weird because SoftBank is a junk-rated company by Western credit rating agencies. Now, basically SoftBank has a $65 billion investment into Open AI that is finalizing by October and they've been using a lot of bridge loans to get there. That's sketchy behavior in and of itself, but a lot of these bridge loans are like 8 plus percent interest. So, the company's trying to swap that out for something cheaper to still fund their Open AI investment. Anytime you hear bond sales and bridge loans in the same kind of paragraph, you should be skeptical. Also in the news today, Deep Seek's revenue reaches $70 million as of July, 10-fold jump from 2025, which is still nothing in the grand scope of things. Donald Trump has threatened further escalation today including 50% auto tariffs in the US-Canada trade war and we'll get into some of those headlines in just a few minutes. I don't think they matter all too much though for the markets at this point. I think the war with Iran matters a lot. The Jackson Hole speech people are nervous about what the Fed's going to do. AI stocks, what Nvidia earnings look like. I think these are much more pressing catalysts right now for the stock market. Iran today ties Hormuz reopening to the end of the war. Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will will remain closed until the US lifts its naval blockade and the war ends permanently including fighting in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary shipping route through the strait and plans to remove sea mines. President Trump maintains that all mines have already been cleared. So, we thought Iran and Oman had a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz to figure out shipping, but it doesn't look like that is finalized yet. And there has been a lot of unconfirmed reports that the US and Iran have actually reached an agreement to end this conflict, but you're not hearing anything about that. It was rumored last night that that news could be coming out in the coming days that it wasn't super imminent, but in the coming days. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he sees no possibility of a diplomatic agreement with Iran following talks with President Trump. And it says here Nvidia's $200 billion risk is in focus. Wall Street is looking beyond Nvidia's expected blockbuster Q2 earnings to a potential $200 billion in AI-related credit exposure by 2028. Investors want clarity on Nvidia's off-balance sheet commitments tied to AI infrastructure financing, supply, and power. Despite these concerns, Q2 revenue is expected to nearly double to 92.2 billion driven by booming AI data center demand. In the news today, Iran and Oman agreed on a share of Hormuz revenues. According to a Reuters poll, the S&P 500 is set to end 2026 at 7,900. That is up from 7,620 in the May poll. In betting markets today, Hormuz reopening odds are jumping. Calcio traders see rising odds that the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal before April 1st, 2027, there's a 50% chance. July 21st, 2027, 54% chance. And before January 1st, 2028, there is now a 68% chance. Donald Trump on Iran, Ayatollah says, "I don't think he's dead." Trump reiterates the US blockade in Hormuz is working. Trump suggests that 22 ships passed through Hormuz last night. Trump says a lot of oil is pouring out of Hormuz, and he says that prices are coming down. Donald Trump said says today, "We can get by without Canada." And he says, "It's time to teach Canada you can't do this anymore." Capital Economics today says the July's core PCE increase is unlikely to trigger a Fed rate hike in September. That the PCE data supports a Fed hold for now. And if we take a look at your broader indexes today, the Russell 2000 is down 0.23%. Nasdaq 100 down a tenth of 1%. Nasdaq itself down 0.25%. S&P down 0.07% and the Dow is down a third of 1%. 10-year Treasury yields today are up about two basis points sitting at 4.658% and oil today is pretty much flat as we're kind of just waiting to see what the next headline looks like. And if we take a look at the heat map today, it's kind of a mixed bag out there. Some AI stocks are doing okay, right? Micron, AMD, they're up. Dell's up today. Seagate, Anet, Western Digital, Sandisk, you know, they're up a little bit today. But Nvidia's down, Broadcom's down. Some of your hyperscalers are down today. Google's down 1 and 1/2%. Amazon's down over half of 1%, Nvidia down 1%, Tesla down about 2% today. Some software is doing okay, others not as much. If you look at financials like AI financials, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, they're down the most today like 2% a piece. Healthcare kind of doing weird things today, cyclicals doing weird things today. It's kind of strange. We're we're in this weird period where we're just not quite to our major catalyst yet, our clearing events like the Jackson Hole speech and Nvidia earnings and people are kind of just putting on some hedges out there, taking some profits out there, getting ready for these upcoming catalyst. But there's not a clear like trend today. It's not that AI hardware stocks are doing, you know, all of them are doing good or all of them are doing bad. The broadening trade, some of that's doing okay, some of that's not doing okay. There's not a clear consensus for the trading day today. And again, I just am a little nervous when it comes to Nvidia earnings because expectations are so high and what has happened here in the past couple of months. With that said, I don't know exactly what's going to happen. I'm not a financial advisor, not a financial planner. There's a lot of moving parts right now in the markets and we will be covering Nvidia earnings later on tonight and uh giving you a full run-through, but I I I I'm not super bullish here. I'll just I'll just tell you that and maybe I'm proven wrong. Which for the bulls, you'd love that. That is it, ladies and gentlemen. Hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next one.